NRO

Strike-Back Assessment High technology goes big time.

By Charles E. Miller, a retired Air Force colonel October 8, 2001 7:00 a.m. igh technology has a well-founded place in this war. The initial sorties of the American air strikes of October 7 sought to destroy Taliban aircraft, air-defense capabilities (radars and missile launchers), and command-and-control facilities. Defeating these targets will enable American, British, and other coalition aircraft to more easily fly over Afghanistan to attack other targets or support other military operations. It is likely that we will deal with any handheld antiaircraft missiles though a combination of tactics and technology.

Initial reports make it clear that we also targeted terrorists training camps, some former bin Laden homes, and a few "infrastructure" targets — perhaps electrical power generators. If not already hit, it is hard to imagine the few remaining telephone systems lasting very long. Going after bridges is a toss-up, and will be driven by individual considerations of battlefield plans.

The al Queda training camps were not especially sophisticated and eventually can be replaced, but the training system has been disrupted directly and indirectly. When the tales of the B-1 and B-52 carpet bombing of the camps make the rounds, fewer are likely to volunteer for training. It may be that some of the attacks were designed to set the stage for helping the Northern Alliance forces.

Apparently, two C-17 airlift aircraft have (or soon will have) delivered 37,500 humanitarian daily rations through a high-altitude delivery system that does not involve parachutes, but for which military leaders have some confidence of precision. The humanitarian missions are designed to signal to the Afghan people that we are not fighting against them.

In the initial missions, the U.S. used 50 cruise missiles, 15 long-range bombers, 25 carrier-based fighter bombers, and two C-17s. There have been no reports thus far about any attacks on caves or similar targets. So far, there are no U.S. or coalition air losses (except what was the suspected downing of an unmanned aerial vehicle several days ago). Taliban reports of shooting down a coalition aircraft are in the same category as the early Taliban report that no coalition attacks were successful and that all the missiles fell in the desert.

Over the next few days we should expect to see:

· The Taliban Air Force finished off; what is left of the air-defense system crushed; more command and intelligence centers destroyed. · Police and secret-police headquarters and facilities leveled. · Taliban tanks, artillery, and mechanized vehicles "plinked" to destruction or into hiding; Taliban troop concentrations decimated with cluster munitions. · Petroleum and ammunition storage sites destroyed · More humanitarian daily rations and medical supplies dropped to refugees, anti-Taliban areas, and known areas of large-scale suffering. (It is not hard to imagine civilian feeding and medical support centers springing up overnight in some locations.) · Al Qaeda sites bombed or otherwise attacked.

In the longer run, we should also expect:

· Introduction of conventional ground forces into Afghanistan. · Accidental (on our part) killing of Afghan civilians. · Loss of a coalition aircraft to a shoulder-launched missile(s) — if not soon, then eventually. (The pilot will be rescued by Special Operations Forces.) · Air operations in support of special operations activities — aimed at unraveling the al Qaeda network and infrastructure. · Air operations in closer support of Northern Alliance forces. · Attacks on suspected bin Laden hiding places.

-- Anonymous, October 08, 2001