http://www.upside.com/Ebiz/3a244a9e1.html

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Remember Y2K? Hard to believe it, but just a year ago, everyone from the U.S. government to BusinessWeek was terrified that we were about to approach a technological Armageddon that many believed would herald the end of the world as we know it. We now know that the Y2K disaster scenario was, in fact, a hoax.

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There has yet to be an apology from the Y2K "experts" for starting the hoax and keeping it alive.

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Don't get me wrong. The Y2K glitch was real and there were some programs that might not have functioned perfectly if the glitch wasn't fixed. But despite all the brouhaha, there was little likelihood that the Y2K glitch would have a significant impact on anything other than a few irate customers. We know this because the new millennium began without any significant computer-related problems, even in countries like Russia, Bulgaria and Vietnam, where next to nothing was spent on the problem.

The supposed massive impact wasn't just a hoax, it was an expensive hoax. John Gantz, chief research officer at Framingham, Mass.-based International Data Corp., estimates at least $70 billion was wasted on Y2K work that wasn't really necessary.

That estimate, however, doesn't take into account the money spent by frightened citizens on "Y2K preparedness," some of whom sold everything they owned and headed for the hills. And then there was the extra government expense, which included $50 million to create a Y2K "crisis center."

Where it started

Where did the hoax originate? While Y2K glitch worries had been bouncing around the industry for a decade or so, the supposed problem was thrown into the public eye when the Gartner Group published a news release in the mid-1990s describing the supposed "dangers" of the Y2K glitch, predicting that it would cost $300 billion to $600 billion to fix it.

These figures were obviously based upon pure guesswork (give or take $300 billion?), but that didn't keep the Gartner Group and other firms from building an entire business selling "information" about the hazards of Y2K.

Like its colleague companies, the Gartner Group is widely quoted in the media as an "authority" on high-tech matters. But anybody who has ever worked with these market research companies knows the quality of research frequently is questionable and the opinions in the reports are often tailored to excite computer vendors into buying pricey reports.

The "expert" status of the Gartner Group put it in an excellent position to capitalize on the growing interest in the Y2K issue. Leading the charge at the Gartner Group was Vice President Lou Marcoccio, a Massachusetts resident who was quoted frequently on the subject and even was called down to Washington, D.C., to present expert testimony to the U.S. Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem.

During that presentation, he outlined the dangers of Y2K and even predicted that 1999 was supposed to be marked by "fiscal year system failures" (which occur for companies that have an early fiscal year ahead of the calendar year). When the fiscal year failures didn't happen in 1999, I called Marcoccio to ask why other analysts were beginning to question Gartner Group's numbers. Despite repeated requests for an interview, he refused to return my calls.

Another local Y2K monger, Capers Jones, chairman of Burlington, Mass.-based Software Productivity Research, was willing to talk to me, however. It was Jones who popularized the notion that Y2K eventually would cost $3.2 trillion, based in part upon his belief that there would be $1 trillion in lawsuits as a result of Y2K failures.

Hoax of the century page 2: New England news of note

Around and around I asked Jones where he got the $1 trillion figure. He told me the number came from another locally based industry analyst, Stephanie Moore of GIGA Information Group.

While Moore admitted to using the $1 trillion number in her Y2K articles, she insisted she got the number from Capers Jones. In other words, nobody was willing to own up to the forecast -- despite the fact that at that time, the U.S. Congress was wasting taxpayer money by debating whether to put financial caps on Y2K litigation.

In my view, these so-called Y2K experts, along with their many colleagues, were largely responsible for providing the intellectual underpinnings for the entire Y2K hoax -- despite the fact that they clearly didn't know squat.

I might add that Upside magazine, alone among the major publications, was telling its readers as early as November 1998 that Y2K disasters were overwrought hype -- a position that resulted in a flurry of hostile letters from the true believers.

Y2K is now history, but it's interesting to note that there has yet to be anything resembling an apology from the Y2K "experts" for starting the hoax in the first place -- and for keeping it alive even when it was clear (from the lack of fiscal year failures in mid-1999) that Y2K was going to be an enormous non-event.

While I suspect they were fooling themselves as much as they were fooling the rest of the world, these are the people who are paid big bucks to provide reliable advice and perspective. In this case they failed miserably, and the result was an enormous waste of time, money and energy on a problem that simply wasn't life-threatening.

Related story: Who's Afraid of the Y2K? 11/02/98

http://www.upside.com/texis/mvm/ebiz/story?id=3a257f088

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

Answers

As we have told you, you don't know JACK SHIT about Y2k or what went on. Send an email to Gary Duct Tape will be Money after 1/1/2000 for guidance. LOLOL

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

EPITOME' of "CIRCLE JERK":

Around and around I asked Jones where he got the $1 trillion figure. He told me the number came from another locally based industry analyst, Stephanie Moore of GIGA Information Group. While Moore admitted to using the $1 trillion number in her Y2K articles, she insisted she got the number from Capers Jones. In other words, nobody was willing to own up to the forecast -- despite the fact that at that time, the U.S. Congress was wasting taxpayer money by debating whether to put financial caps on Y2K litigation. In my view, these so-called Y2K experts, along with their many colleagues, were largely responsible for providing the intellectual underpinnings for the entire Y2K hoax -- despite the fact that they clearly didn't know squat. I might add that Upside magazine, alone among the major publications, was telling its readers as early as November 1998 that Y2K disasters were overwrought hype -- a position that resulted in a flurry of hostile letters from the true believers.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

Send an email to Gary Duct Tape will be Money after 1/1/2000 for guidance.

cpr, ... ahh, I mean, "Loon" ... can you explain in a little more detail what you are trying to say, here? I'm sure it makes perfect sense in your world, but it's coming across a bit garbled in mine. (Maybe I have been stricken by a eyestrain meme....)

Have a good night.

-- Anonymous, August 14, 2001

TK,

Gary North once said that after the Y2K disaster "Duct tape will be money."

-- Anonymous, August 14, 2001

Forget the Duct Tape BS. Why don't you question the most important part of the post. I see it was posted twice to make certain that you and other denialists understand it: The TRILLION DOLLAR Y2k Cost CIRCLE JERK where the "experts" denied they originated the statement but ALL USED IT along with Bozo Your-Done-&-Toas-Toast-ED.

Perhaps also, Mr. Capers Jones "expert" in Software Metrics could explain why in 1999 he whipped up a contingency plan for small and medium sized Towns that he was offering around the net. Interesting because as THE Capers Jones, it would seem he did not have to participate in such minor matters. Was the ability to re-sell the Plan tempting considering the first one had been bought and paid for by one Town?

In the end, one major CULPRET along the entire history of Y2k FUD was the PRESS which would take Press Releases from the Gigas, Gartners, Cutters and Capers Jones and extract their C.V.s or snippets about their background and thus give them the imprimatur of EXPERT and it said so right in A.P., The NY Times or the Washington Post.

The IDIOCY of it all was Yourdon and many others cited "Little Ricky" Cowles as THE Number One Expert in the matter of Y2k and Power Utilities. To this day, nobody but the DEBUNKERS ever asked "what were Cowles Credentials and in fact, what were his Academic Credentials"? In reality, he didn't even have a College Degree but he pontificated as though he was an Engineer.

There were others of similar Questionable "credentials" who were NEVER grilled properly. If they made good copy, what they said was repeated then whipped around the Net until it became "factoid".

One by one, all the "factoids" became MYTH and their PERPETRATORS were exposed.

THAT EXPOSURE WAS DONE BY THE DEBUNKERS AND PEOPLE LIKE MITCH RATCLIFFE AND GEOFF JAMES ........STATING FLAT OUT......"THE EMPEROR Y2K HAS NO CLOTHES".

AND I HAVE 200 GIGS OF DATA TO BACK THAT UP WITH. COPIES OF IT SIT AT CARNEGIE MELLON, BOSTON UNIVERSITY AND OTHER UNIVERSITIES FOR POSTERITY.

-- Anonymous, August 14, 2001