Aaron Lynch update

greenspun.com : LUSENET : Poole's Roost II : One Thread

************************************************************ This is Thought Contagion News, Aaron Lynchs occasional newsletter of thought contagion theory (the evolutionary epidemiology of ideas). If you do not wish to receive this newsletter, simply send a return message with the word "unsubscribe" on the first line. To subscribe or resubscribe, send a message with the words "subscribe" in the subject line to aaron@mcs.net. If you use an email alias and wish to unsubscribe, please include a copy of the routing details (full header). ************************************************************

Topics in this issue:

Financial Thought Contagion

The Evolution of Intelligence Published After Long Delay.

Thought Contagions and Pathological Dieting

New Technical Paper

Financial Thought Contagion

The article "Thought Contagions in the Stock Market" which was received for publication on August 20, 1999, gave readers a special opportunity to learn what caused the dot-com bubble, and why and how it would end. Its 10,000+ words also discussed numerous other financial micro-contagion forces that can move markets, either alone or in combination with other behavioral finance phenomena and market forces. It was presented at the 1999 meeting of the Institute for Psychology and Financial Markets at the Aspen Institute in advance of its publication in the Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets. News of this paper appeared in mainstream financial publications such as the Financial Times, (22 May, 2000).

This April, a somewhat longer article filled mainly with new material appeared in Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation -- the official journal of the Futures and Options Association. Received on September 25, 2000, it correctly noted that the dot-com sell-off of the Spring of 2000 "... probably did not reverse more than a fraction of the contagion-driven price increases that had happened during the previous two years." By the time of actual publication, the dot-com sell-off had indeed resumed with a vengeance. As with the first paper, this one gave extensive, previously unpublished analysis of financial micro-contagion forces acting outside of the dot-com and technology sectors.

In June of this year, I gave an invited talk in the Wall Street financial district. The transcript of that talk is now forthcoming as still another journal article, once again providing considerable new analysis of how thought contagions influence the financial markets. Finally, there is still additional material that I brought in written form to the talk on Wall Street, but which was not all presented in the talk. It is slated for eventual publication in still another paper or book chapter.

As the stock market is an extremely complex mass phenomenon, considerable time and money went into researching and writing these papers. They were also written without ownership or other direct financial ties to the companies discussed -- with the one small exception of an online book referral fee coming from Amazon.com that clearly was not enough to prevent the first article from identifying a potential weakness in the company's business plan in the first paper. The papers therefore cannot simply be donated to the public through the web. Interested individual investors, scholars, portfolio managers, and Thought Contagion News subscribers can, however, obtain a package of all four (including a pre-publication transcript of the Wall Street talk) for the prepaid price of $100 US per copy. Prepayment is made by sending a check or money order payable to Aaron Lynch to: Aaron Lynch PO Box 1721 Evanston, IL, 60204

The Evolution of Intelligence Now Published After Long Delay

The last two newsletters mentioned a chapter forthcoming in The Evolution of Intelligence, edited by Yale University psychologists Robert J. Sternberg and James C. Kaufman. The book has 20 authors in all, and is 390 pages long. It is available for $80 from the publisher Lawrence Erlbaum Associates or from bookstores. My own contribution is called "Evolutionary Contagion in Mental Software." Topics include astrological dating, belief in psychic powers, popularity of the hypothesis that women have an innate partner wealth preference, the rise of Nazism and neo-Nazism, US slavery and racism, the belief in corporal punishment of children, the role of accelerating evolution in rising IQ test averages, the possible (ironic) effect of neo-Nazi and other racist ideologies in diminishing genetic and environmental components of individual and population intelligence, and the evolution of intelligence in the presence of mind-enhancing technologies. The other contributors are R. J. Sternberg, J. B. Grossman, J. C. Kaufman, D. F. Bjorklund, K. Kipp, J. L. Bradshaw, R. L. Byrne, W. H. Calvin, M. C. Corballis, L. Cosmides, J. Tooby, O. Flanagan, V. Hardcastle, E. Nahmias, P. Godfrey-Smith, H. Jerison, I. M. Pepperberg, H. Plotkin, P. Bloom.

Thought Contagions and Pathological Dieting

An article called Thought Contagions and Pathological Dieting is now online at http://www.thoughtcontagion.com/diet.htm. This article discusses how contagious diet plans cause eating disorders such as anorexia on the one hand and obesity on the other. Written on a popular level, the article is based on a February, 2000 email and telephone interview with Megan McCafferty of Glamour Magazine. Parts of that interview were quoted in Parts of the interview were quoted in "Hollywood Starve Wars" by Megan McCafferty in the June, 2000 issue of Glamour Magazine, p. 277-279. It expands upon the discussion of diets included in the book Thought Contagion.

New Technical Paper

For those readers who sometimes wish to depart radically from the popular reading level, there is considerable new material available in the paper "Units, Events, and Dynamics in the Evolutionary Epidemiology of Ideas." This paper is online at http://www.thoughtcontagion.com/UED.htm. A few sections go into mathematical analysis, but the non-mathematical sections can be read separately by most readers. This paper provides an expanded theoretical framework for all of the other thought contagion works. This includes the Financial Thought Contagion, for which the distinction between micro-contagion and macro-contagion is important needs to be clear.

Feel free to forward this issue of Thought Contagion News to any friends and forums who would appreciate it!

Aaron Lynch

aaron@thoughtcontagion.com

The Thought Contagion Science Page: http://www.thoughtcontagion.com



-- Anonymous, August 08, 2001

Answers

For those whose memory is vague or selective; Lynch developed the concept of the Y2k Meme. That kind of thought contagion also applies to True Believers in the New World Order, NWO.

-- Anonymous, August 08, 2001

Ahh I don't know if it is a Meme, but one thing is for sure, NWO promoters persist in thinking their "philosophies" will one day work. They show little concern centuries of history is telling them they are bonkers.

I tend to think it just a lack of brain material and a very screwed- up spiritual indentity which drives those who want to attempt to MAKE us all the SAME. A mentality where one wants to be God.

If it is a Meme, it sure has a very long life span. I doubt you could characterize those who oppose this NWO crap as having a Meme. Freedom and wanting to be left the hell alone tends not to be indicative of a Meme from my experience.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


Oh, man, I see that we are getting into some really harcore looney stuff now. Go, baby, go!

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

TK, you are a fucking idiot. Aaron Lynch is a respected Academic who has published his work on "Thought Contagions".

Do yourself a favor and ask your Mommy to enroll you in "Critical Reading" at the "Special School" you attend.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


Yeah, Loon, much like Paula Gordon's academic credentials, I would suppose. Too funny!

By the way, you have a very fitting name....

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


Methinks Doc's definition of NWO is not the same as the ordinary internet NWO-paranoids. But I'm not sure I can explain the difference.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

Buddy,

I finally realized that, too.

Doc,

You WOULD do your viewpoint a service if you wouldn't refer to with the "NWO" label. Call it "globalism," or "liberalism" or some other "ism."

"NWO" has come to take on a specific -- and quite negative, to the average person -- connotation.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


Yeah, Doc, then maybe people wouldn't be so apt to notice how totally nutball all of this "thought contagionation" stuff is.

Just kidding. Of course, people will still notice.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

About Aaron Lynch.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

Lars, my friend, thanks for the link to the links. Just when I think this place can't get any goofier, it does. I forsee hilarious lunchtime reading today and tomorrow, which pretty much completes the week.

Have a great day!

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


I never thought you "average" Stephen.

Note to Lars, careful that TK Thing is calling you a friend. Just a hunch this can't be a good thing, Hahahahaha

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


I do not know TK but I'm sure he is a quality person as are we all.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

The new term I will use is "Neoliberalism/Capitalist Globalism". Can you see why the appealing nature of NWO now? and why it is used?

Bottomline is this. The typical NWO(opps)person believes that the Neoliberalist/Capitalist Globalist a smart fellow. That they are conspiring intelligent folks who will most likely pull-off some nicely defined world takeover. I on the otherhand, think these folks NUTS and will never be able to do anything beyond what they have done for eons....cause Wars, pollute the Planet, and generally reck havoc where ever they stick their stupid necks. The threat is thru centralized power being directed by stupid people, not some well orchestrated demonic plot destine to succeed.

-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001


I'LL JUST BET THAT "TinKerbell" TK can match this and has an article in SKEPTICAL INQUIRER he/she would have a link for. http://www.mcs.net/~aaron/

History: Received a B.S. in Physics and a B.A. combining Mathematics and Philosophy from the University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign. Worked as an Engineering Physicist at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory after graduating. Work on thought contagions has been favorably covered by ABC News, Newsweek, NPR, Publishers Weekly, The Washington Post, The Futurist, Forbes, Le Monde, The National Post, Glamour, The Financial Times, and other sources.

Ongoing Work: Includes areas such as stock market thought contagions, educational improvement, global security, small to large scale creativity enhancement, disease prevention, violence reduction, drug abuse strategy, street gangs, racism/fascism, community well being, etc. Currently serving on the editorial board at the Journal of Memetics. Initial contact (for public speaking, academic inquiries, recursive peer-to- peer marketing projects, or consulting on low cost ways of improving education while reducing teacher "burnout," violence reduction, raising the creative output of individuals, organizations, or societies, improving global security, AIDS abatement, drug policy, etc.) by email.

Listings: The Wilson Guide to Experts in Science and Technology (H.W. Wilson Co., 1999).

Ongoing Project: Develop, test, and publish advances in Thought Contagion Theory. See the articles listed on the Thought Contagion Science Page. (Copy of page here too, in case thoughtcontagion.com is slow.)



-- Anonymous, August 09, 2001

Get a grip, cpr. This is completely nutball. You can't be "infected" with thoughts -- they are not germs, for crying out loud.

What next? The NWO sending out memes via satellites to the unsuspecting Earthlings?...

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2001


Get a grip, cpr. This is completely nutball. You can't be "infected" with thoughts -- they are not germs, for crying out loud.

I disagree with this appraisal. Y2k, religion, politics, etc. are perfect examples of thought contagion if one doesn't look into arguments on both sides. I think Flint summed it up perfectly when he mentioned folks who tightly close both eyes, refuse to listen to ANY other side besides the one they've chosen, and basically immerse themselves in material or companions in total agreement with what they've chosen to believe is correct.

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2001


Aaron Lynch has a BA fom U of Illinois and has published in Clamour! Wow, an eminently qualified psychobabbler. You can retain him to babble at your local Chit-Chat Society for $5000.0 (a much better deal than Bill Clinton).

-- Anonymous, August 10, 2001

Anon posters like TK with their surface "opinions" derived by one glance reading disgust me. Yes there are "thought contagions". The ultimate are Christianity and Islam especially as practiced by the New Believer, True Believer and "Born Againers". Part of Evangelical Christianity is the urgency to BELIEVE AND SPREAD THE WORD TO THE ENDS OF THE EARTH SO THAT ALL OTHERS MAY BE SAVED. You can not HELP BUT VIEW THAT AS A THOUGHT SPREAD IN A CONTAGIOUS MANNER. And the reward for "spreading the news" (The GOOD NEWS). ETERNAL LIFE. What a great payoff.
THOUGHT CONTAGION THEORY
The Science of Self-Spreading Beliefs
(thoughtcontagion.com)

      Thought contagions are beliefs or ideas that "program" for their own spreading-- ultimately affecting whole societies. By their strong effects on how we live, such ideas secure self-propagation by inducing evangelism, abundant childraising and dropout prevention. Ideas harnessing these human functions most effectively win out over weaker variants. Evolving like life forms, through evolution by natural selection, thought contagions vie for ever stronger influence in human lives. Thought contagions range from fast rumors to slowly spreading traditional religions. The practical implications extend to high benefit, low cost ways of improving education while reducing teacher "burnout";  violence reduction, racism, neo-fascism, religious strife, overpopulation, street gangs, financial markets, apocalyptic religion, fad diets, child raising, how children's games spread, abortion clashes, sexual politics, gay bashing, war, terrorism, AIDS, drug policy, recursive marketing, raising the creative output of individuals, organizations, or societies, global security, and many other areas.

     Brief Example: Consider the belief that you need to find a romantic partner of a "compatible" astrological sign. This idea causes singles who have it to raise the subject of astrological sign compatibility with each new potential partner, in order to determine compatibility. So the idea exploits human mating drives to get itself copied into more minds. It is a "sexually transmitted belief," implicitly telling some hosts to send several copies of this idea to potential partners before accepting anyone for further dating. That includes people moved to spread the idea without though they do not hold winning converts as an objective. Resembling a paperless chain letter in some ways, the thought contagion also behaves in humans much as a computer virus behaves in computers. Though it does not erase its hosts’ memory, it can make it harder to find a partner deemed "compatible" by arbitrarily narrowing the field. So like a sexually transmitted microorganism, astrology ideas use human mating for their own reproduction. Even in couples who are not serious enough about astrology to promptly stop dating over an "incompatibility" finding, the astrological idea may still plant a seed of doubt that can favor giving up in the face of real relationship challenges when they arise. If the number of persuadable unbelievers in astrological dating is still high enough, the astrological idea can "win" by causing couples to break up: breakups move people back to dating--and back to discussing astrology with new people. There is thus an evolutionary conflict between the astrological belief and the genes of its host, and this conflict changes with changing prevalence of the idea and those susceptible to it. If, for instance, susceptible non-hosts of the belief become quite rare, then variants of the belief might "win" by reducing breakups and favoring more parent to child idea transmission. (A continued supply of young people reaching dating age without learning astrological dating beliefs from their parents probably stops this from happening, especially if many parents drop the idea by the time their children grow up.) This is not all that the new theory has to say about astrology, and astrology is not a special case. Similar analyses shed fresh light on a vast range of ancient religions and recent ideologies. (Further analysis of astrological beliefs in Thought Contagion and here.)

     Old or New? Analogies between cultural evolution and biological evolution have been around for over a century, as have comparisons between contagious ideas and contagious microorganisms. William James, for instance, published an 1880 essay comparing cultural and biological evolution, while Gustave Le Bon discussed contagion of ideas in his 1895 book The Crowd. Various ideas of social evolution go back long before Darwin's time, as documented by J. W. Burrow's book Evolution and Society (London: Cambridge University Press, 1966). Thought contagion theory does not merely continue these lines of work with new topics, but incorporates a new approach as well: the evolutionary epidemiology of ideas. In connection to microorganisms, the field of evolutionary epidemiology was called "an emerging discipline" by biologist Paul Ewald in his 1994 book, Evolution of Infectious Disease (Oxford University Press)--see also Ewald's "The Evolution of Virulence," Scientific American, April 1993. This theory is not simply contagion, nor simply evolution, nor even contagion plus evolution. Rather, it is evolution happening through distinctly epidemiological mechanisms and dynamics. Thought contagion theory considers the evolutionary epidemiology not of biological germs, but of ideas. It does so in a neutral context: much as there can be harmful or beneficial infectious organisms, so too can there be harmful or beneficial infectious ideas- -and many intermediate possibilities. As it happens, the first draft of Thought Contagion was finished in 1993, and earlier work was also done without using Ewald's work as a source of metaphor. Yet even if evolutionary thought contagion theory were a metaphor (which it is not, as noted below), it would have to be a metaphor to a newly emerging biological discipline. The book Thought Contagion also opens a new branch in the Library of Congress catalog system called "Contagion (Social Psychology)." (Because of its semi-popular reading level, Thought Contagion only uses the term "epidemiology" 6 times, though it uses the term "evolutionary" more often. Readers can appreciate the newness of its material without knowing technical words, but academic works in thought contagion science mention "evolutionary epidemiology" more often.) Works featured on these pages focus on the truly recursive evolutionary aspects of mass social phenomena, rather than simply jargonizing established fields such as psychology, sociology, Machiavellian theory, marketing science, etc. with new buzzwords. Readers of both the popular and scholarly works will often notice the "ordinary" question of how people acquire ideas turned on its head, by opening the likewise legitimate question of how ideas acquire people.

    Isn't this the evolutionary replicator theory of culture invented by Richard Dawkins? No. Evolutionary replicator theory of culture was not invented by Richard Dawkins, but goes back at least to anthropologist F. T. Cloak, who discussed it in his 1973 paper "Elementary Self-Replicating Instructions and Their Works: Toward a Radical Reconstruction of General Anthropology Through a General Theory of Natural Selection" presented at the Ninth International Congress of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences. (In Cloak's very broad usage, genes also count as "instructions," hence the generality of the theory of natural selection presented in that paper.) The idea of Dawkins as originator of evolutionary cultural replicator theory has become so widespread and often communicated (due to Dawkins's popular writing style, ongoing publicity, particular ways of describing the history, etc., and Cloak's technical style, obscure modes of publication, and lack of self-promotion) that even people who have read Cloak's early papers and forgotten their publication dates can acquire the idea of crediting the theory's origin to Dawkins.
     Cloak, who was never a popularizer, was praised by former American Psychological Association president Donald Campbell as "...one of the most meticulous and creative thinkers about social evolution..." (American Psychologist 31, p. 381, 1976). A 1975 paper by Cloak titled "Is a Cultural Ethology Possible" [Human Ecology 3(3): 161- 182] that goes into less detail than the 1973 paper has been more widely cited-- partly because of where it was published but perhaps also because a 1968 version by the same title was published in Research Reviews 15(1): 37-47. [To make the 1973 paper more easily available to scientists and scholars, a scanned version (3.4 megabytes total) is now online with permission from the author.] The 1975 paper, which was cited by Dawkins in The Selfish Gene (Oxford University Press, 1976), does discuss the self-replication and natural selection of brain-stored cultural items, as well as elementary self-replicating instructions in general. But it does not handle these subjects as formally and symbolically as the 1973 paper. Instead, Cloak's 1975 paper refers readers to the 1973 paper for elaboration of the theory. Both works follow the cultural microevolution studies conducted in a village of Trinidad during 1963 to 1965 that were the basis of Cloak's 1966 Ph.D dissertation, and clearly are not products of "armchair theorizing." Early discussion of provisionally proposed "units of cultural instruction" and their self-propagating effects also appears in Cloak's short 1966 paper "Cultural Microevolution," [Research Previews 13: (2) p. 7-10.] The present evolutionary epidemiology of ideas, as a branch of evolutionary cultural replicator theory, can be seen as further development of certain aspects of Cloak's work after some independent reinvention. It provides numerous examples of evolutionary replicator analysis giving distinct new insights for large societies, with emphasis on the practical significance of the theory in large societies. It does not, however, offer to explain all social or cultural phenomena nor even all cultural evolution and transmission phenomena.
    As for the word "replicator," it is documented in the Oxford English Dictionary, Second Edition, as going back to the early 1960s in connection with biology and the more general meaning of "that which replicates." No mention is made of Dawkins as the source of the word "replicator." While Dawkins did not originate evolutionary replicator theory or the word "replicator," he did originate the word "meme" with this particular English spelling and gave some examples in his 13-page chapter "Memes: The New Replicators." That, however, does not mean that Dawkins should be credited with Cloak's evolutionary cultural replicator work any more than the originator of the word "gene" (Johannsen) should be credited with launching Mendelian genetics. Unfortunately, Dawkins did not give the word "meme" a formal definition in 1976, leading to a profusion of definitions being made by people trying to fill the void. Dawkins did clarify in his 1982 book The Extended Phenotype (W. H. Freeman and Company) that "a meme should be regarded as a unit of information residing in a brain (Cloak's 'i- culture')" [p. 109].  Moreover, by the time he published The Blind Watchmaker (W. W. Norton & Company, 1986), Dawkins had given still another definition to indicating that "memes" exist in various media, rendering the term less specific without noting that the definition was being changed again. Moreover, the new definition was given without explaining its value to scientific communications or to explaining a particular development in evolutionary cultural replicator theory or describing an empirical result. Without justifying the change, Dawkins may have given critics the idea that the definition of terms was being treated as if it did not matter, creating a widespread sense that something other than science was being done. Skeptics might have suspected that the word was simply coined first, and a search for definitions and purposes launched afterward--raising questions about whether the word arose through scientific methods. Changing definitions may also have conveyed the impression of an Oxford professor fumbling for a definition and thus needing more help in the form of additional proposed definitions--adding to the profusion of definitions.
    In recent works, Dawkins has strongly promoted philosopher Daniel Dennett, who uses a still less specific definition of meme--while neither of them even mention Cloak in connection with memes. Writing in his book Darwin's Dangerous Idea (Simon and Schuster, 1995), Dennett treats meme theory as merely a perspective (as distinct from a scientific hypothesis or theoretical framework), and expresses doubts for the prospects that it might become a rigorous science. Dennett sums up the perspective he calls "the meme perspective" with the slogan: "A scholar is just a library's way of making another library." This slogan, the expression of meme theory as a perspective, and much other material were also used in an October 27, 1989 lecture called "Memes and the Exploitation of the Imagination," republished in the Journal of Aesthetics and Art Criticism 48:2, Spring 1990, p. 127-135. That journal may have been a good place for reviewing aesthetic or artistic perspectives, but was not a peer- reviewed science journal whose reviewers could be expected to have read even popular works on evolutionary cultural replicator theory. While the slogan expresses the inverted and counter-intuitive thinking that often arises in evolutionary cultural replicator theory, it departs radically from the clarification of the term "meme" given by Dawkins in 1982. Dennett also treats artifacts such as spoked wheels as being or containing memes. In going along with this usage and publicly endorsing it, Dawkins implicitly abandons his 1982 definition again in favor of a far less specific and more ambiguous definition for which the prospects of rigorous science may indeed be doubtful. A pithy slogan thus seems to have played a larger role in the definition change than any theoretical or empirical developments of science. In contrast Dawkins, whose professional interests lie more heavily in genetics, has not promoted any work that treats genetics as a mere perspective. For instance, it seems unlikely that he would endorse a change of definition for the word gene even if someone popularized the provocative slogan, "An amino acid is just a prion's way of making another prion."
     As a reader of draft chapters from Dennett's 1995 book, Dawkins might have persuaded Dennett to recognize Cloak as originator and elaborator of evolutionary cultural replicator theory, but apparently he did not. The writing style and non-mention of Cloak's 1973 paper by Dawkins's 1976 book can easily give readers the impression that the theory was invented along with the word by Dawkins, although Dawkins did say in his 1982 book that he did not know the human culture literature well enough to authoritatively contribute to it (p. 112). Fortunately, the authoritative contribution of the theory by Cloak did in fact come from a human culture specialist: a cultural anthropologist. In both his 1989 lecture and his 1995 book, Dennett includes a paragraph (1995, p. 361) indicating that Dawkins was describing the "extension of classical Darwinian theory" (to cultural replicators) as "his" [Dawkins's] innovation -- even though Dawkins cites Cloak's 1975 paper, which in turn refers readers to Cloak's more technical 1973 paper for elaboration of the theory. Misattribution of the theory to Dawkins, along with Dawkins's subsequent promotion and endorsement of works containing that misattribution, have helped to widely disseminate the misattribution. Having Dawkins incorrectly credited with launching evolutionary cultural replicator theory may have vastly increased the weight given to his implied approval of a nonscientifically-based drastic change in the definition of the word "meme." It may also have fostered a wide misconception that evolutionary cultural replicator theory sprang from "offhand remarks" appended to a work of genetics popularization rather than from more serious and dedicated efforts. Further discussion of some of these problems appears in section 1 and the first two footnotes of an otherwise very technical paper called "Units, Events, and Dynamics in the Evolutionary Epidemiology of Ideas." The online version of Cloak's 1973 paper also has a short foreword discussing some history of Cloak's early papers.
     In 1997, The Oxford English Dictionary apparently took note of both the early profusion of definitions and the recent shifting of definitions to come up with a very broad definition for meme. By that usage, some thought contagions are "memes," some thought contagions are not memes; some "memes" are thought contagions, and some "memes" are not thought contagions.
    With sharp differences between different dictionaries and among "memeticists," meme has gone from its early specificity to a word  looking for a definition--and a retinue of derivatives that seem to have been created mainly because they could be created. Although the word was coined to popularize a specific theoretical paradigm, that fact seems to have been forgotten as people eventually began devising theoretical paradigms to go with the word rather than words to go with their theoretical paradigms--perhaps due to the word's versatility and popularity. (Word versatility and popularity are, of course, not scientific criteria for forming and testing theoretical frameworks.) This situation may give the false impression that the word and its similarity to the word gene were the impetus for the original theoretical paradigm. It also creates a state of academic, scientific, and terminological gridlock that may impede application of the original theoretical framework, thus serving various interest groups including those who want only alternative theoretical frameworks (strict sociobiology, hard-line behaviorism, etc.) to be used. These difficulties favor the use of more specific, self-explanatory, and unequivocal terms such as "idea," "belief," "behavior," "artifact," "thought contagion," "doctrine," "opinion," "belief system," "urban legend," and so forth-- some of which are widely accepted even without the versatility of a monosyllable. The difficulties with meme starting in the 1990s call for new caution against confusing thought contagion theory with various theories of "memes." Accordingly, some very recent works avoid the confusion by not even using the word "meme" -- except in reference to literature that does use the word. However, the ambiguity of a word with many definitions swirling around it can actually increase its popular propagation, even as some scientists recoil from it. When people are able to read into a word the meaning that most suits them, it may increase the number of non-specialists adopting and using the term.

     If evolutionary cultural replicator theory isn't a perspective, then what is it? It is a mode of causal analysis. Specifically, it is the analysis of recursive chains of causation in which differences in the rates (of recursion or iteration) for communication and retention events are analyzed for their cumulative effects over many iterations at the level of a whole society. The theoretical framework does not refer to any "replicator's eye view," to "selfishness" of replicators, or require that replicators be viewed as life forms. While these concepts may serve as pedagogic devices in non-technical writing and popularization, (or even some technical works), they are not necessary parts of the theoretical framework. The theory also does not require inherently discrete "units," "components," or "particles" of culture, but allows for "units" as definable as a meter, an inch, etc are in the measurement of distance. Current theory (e.g., 2001) can explain in mathematical language why cultural items that seem "smallish" may be more useful in the analysis even though absolute metrics for the "size" of an idea, etc. are not defined. The theoretical framework also explains how the spread or decline of existing varieties can cause the arrival or extinction of new forms and combinations of ideas, beliefs, etc.


A book specifically about thought contagion theory:


New Scientist
  Best Seller!
THOUGHT CONTAGION

How Belief Spreads Through Society

by Aaron Lynch. Basic Books.


Bookstores such as Borders (philosophy section), Barnes and Noble (cognitive science section), Amazon, and comprehensive independents have paperback copies available in Science, Cognitive Science, and possibly Psychology, Sociology, Cultural Studies, or Social Science sections. You may have to ask your bookseller where to find it in your local store. On-line ordering of the Hardcover edition is also available. Thought Contagion is also available as a print on demand title in stores that have this new technology.

Shopping advice: Thought Contagion deals with many important and "emotionally loaded" subjects. As a result, readers often love it or hate it, a fact that washes out as "three stars out of five" in the online ratings. If you want to be sure that this book is for you before buying it, a brick and mortar store or a library may help. A few of those who have had an emotionally hostile reaction to Thought Contagion have made false statements about the book, and these are hard to check in an online bookstore. Some online bookstores also make sales pitches for "mind virus" material and "Auctions and zShops" material--items not as related to Thought Contagion as they may seem. Selling multiple items that look superficially similar makes good business sense. Disclosure: The stock of an online bookstore is discussed in the article Thought Contagions in the Stock Market (see below). Books on "memes" and "memetics" are also often not as related as they seem, due to the profusion of definitions for the word "meme."


EARLY PRAISE FOR THOUGHT CONTAGION

"One of the most important new ideas of our times is that of 'memes,'--the vision of ideas as autonomous entities, leaping from brain to brain in much the same way that viruses leap from body to body, spreading and replicating and 'infecting' the population of 'hosts.' This catchy metaphor has become increasingly powerful and deep, and Aaron Lynch's book is in the vanguard of efforts to clarify it and make it vivid for lay audiences. The very meme of 'memes' is thus taking hold and spreading through the human ideosphere, and it is my hope that Thought Contagion will be a primary vector in this global epidemic. Luckily for us potential hosts, it is both benign and fascinating."
--DOUGLAS R. HOFSTADTER*

"When I get down to writing The Selfish Meme, Aaron Lynch's admirable Thought Contagion will undoubtedly be a prime source book for intriguing examples and penetrating analyses."
--RICHARD DAWKINS

"Memetics is a radical science, modeled on genetics, that cuts against the grain of conventional and habitual thinking; Lynch does a fine job of covering its pros and cons, exploring its range and making it accessible to nonexpert readers."
--PUBLISHERS WEEKLY

"The book is intriguing, and its ideas are sure to spread."
--THE WASHINGTON POST

*Also from Doug Hofstadter: "The most thorough-going research on the topic of pure memetics I have yet run across is that of Aaron Lynch..." --Last paragraph of the Viral Sentences and Self-Replicating Structures chaper of his book Metamagical Themas. (The book that contains his collected Scientific American columns.)


BRIEF CONTENTS         & nbsp;            ;           &nb sp;     Detailed Table of Contents also available.

Chapter 1: Self-Sent Messages and Mass Belief ............................... 1

Chapter 2: A Missing Link: Memetics and the Social Sciences ................ 17

Chapter 3: Family Plans: Ideas that Win with Children ...................... 41

Chapter 4: Sexually Transmitted Belief: The Clash of Freedom and Restriction 73

Chapter 5: Successful Cults: Western Religion by Natural Selection ......... 97

Chapter 6: Prescription Beliefs: Thought Contagions and Health ............ 135

Chapter 7: Controversy: Thought Contagions in Conflict..................... 157

Epilogue: Thought Contagions of "Thought Contagion"........................ 175

Bibliography .............................................................. 179

Index ..................................................................... 183



Free Email Newsletter: To receive occasional news of articles, books, and other developments in thought contagion research, subscribe to the free newsletter, Thought Contagion News. To sign up, send email to aaron@thoughtcontagion.com with the subject line "subscribe," or simply click here and then send the message. (Because this newsletter is infrequent, full automation has not been set up. Confirmation comes when you receive the next issue. This newsletter was previously called Mnemon.)

Archive of past issues:

Mnemon 1998a: Y2K Memes: Announces the Y2K article and other articles. October, 1998.

Mnemon 1999a: Selected Article’s, Humor, Math & thoughtcontagion.com: November, 1999.

Thought Contagion News 2000a: Old Works, New Works, and Terminology: December, 2000.


Selected articles

Note: Applied Science Works and Commercially Useful Works of Thought Contagion Science are not Named or Donated by Web
(Or even written up on a computer connected to the Internet.)

Technical Literature For Scientists: See the article Units, Events, and Dynamics in the Evolutionary Epidemiology of Ideas. The paper contains rigorous definitions, symbolic analysis, (optional) mathematical equations, empirical methods, proposed animal experiments, etc. Expressing the theory in these terms shows that it is not tautological or circular. Also, while Thought Contagion uses several kinds of metaphor to explain the theory more readably, this paper shows that evolutionary epidemiology of memory items is not inherently metaphoric. (Likewise, early biological evolution theory was not inherently based on metaphors to the cultural practice of inheritance.) The paper includes explicit criteria for determining which of our ideas are thought contagions and which are not. The equations belong to a class not found in other fields (systems of non-linear, partial differentio- integral difference equations), demonstrating the non metaphoric status of this theoretical paradigm. The equations also apply to rapid changes such as rumors, gradual changes such as the spread of traditional religious faiths in modern countries, and all gradations in between. Contains a novel explanation of creativity as a population phenomenon, explaining why there are so many "virtual ties" in the arrival similar innovations by widely separated individuals. Also discusses the differences between macro-contagion and micro- contagion. Important note: The first two sections of this paper, along with the first two footnotes, are non-technical and important to scholars and many general readers.

1973 Technical Paper by F. T. Cloak: "Elementary Self- Replicating Instructions and Their Works: Toward a Radical Reconstruction of General Anthropology Through a General Theory of Natural Selection." This is a scanned version of the paper Cloak presented to the Ninth International Congress of Anthropological and Ethnological Sciences. It is possibly the first full-fledged work of evolutionary neurally-stored cultural replicator theory, especially as expressed in technical terms; and is also the basis for various popular works. Contains event diagrams and detailed discussion of causal logic for the natural selection of neurally stored "instructions" as well as genetic "instructions." (The term "instruction" is used in an extremely generalized sense.)

Behavioral Finance Papers: "Thought Contagions In the Stock Market" a academic article in the journal Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets Volume 1, number 1, published March 24, 2000 (Paper received August 20, 1999. Final copy editing accepted January 24, 2000. Paper also presented December 11, 1999 at the meeting of the Institute for Psychology and Financial Markets at the Aspen Institute, Aspen, Colorado.). This is a print article analyzing bubbles, crashes, and other market inefficiencies. Explained the Internet dot-com bubble and forecasted its decline, providing advance details that later proved correct. A separate academic article that expands on the first and discusses some applications in general terms is published as "Thought contagion in the stock markets: A general framework and focus on the Internet bubble," in Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation 6:4, p. 338-362. (Other behavioral finance works not published or named here.)

Excerpts from an Academic Book Chapter: "Evolutionary Contagion in Mental Software," in Robert J. Sternberg (Psychology, Yale) and James C. Kaufman (Psychology, Yale) The Evolution of Intelligence. Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Publishers. Draws the distinction between intelligence as an individual phenomenon and intelligence as a population phenomenon and analyzes the effects of mass beliefs on both. Covers numerous important applications of thought contagion theory. Online excerpts available on topics of astrological dating, beliefs in "psychic powers" and "ESP", widespread ideas of women having innate partner wealth preferences, Nazism and neo-Nazism, US slavery and racism, belief in corporal punishment of children, the role of accelerating cultural evolution in rising IQ test averages, and conflicting gene-culture influences on the evolution of intelligence. Contains major updates to some topics discussed in prior works.

Diets, Obesity, and Eating Disorders: The article Thought Contagions and Pathological Dieting explains the infectious spread of pathological dieting that causes health problems ranging from anorexia to obesity. Based on an interview for Glamour Magazine, this article is written at a fairly popular level.
.
Another Article With Numerous New Topics: Thought Contagion and Mass Belief. Applies thought contagion theory to stock market rumors, the pre-war Nazi movement (see above), body piercing, cigars, and television violence.

Y2K Application: The Millennium Contagion: Is your Mental Software Year 2000 Compliant?
Applies Thought Contagion Theory to the Y2K techno-apocalypse idea, analyzing the spread of secular hell-doomsday ideas, progression to multi-refutation resistant strains, etc. A shorter print article, "The Millennium Thought Contagion," containing some new material, was also published in the November/December 1999 issue of Skeptical Inquirer:

Also Online: A lecture titled Memes and Mass Delusion, dealing with topics such as the Roswell UFO myth to conspiracy theories, and other topics covered in more recent works. Also, a commentary on the 1997 Heaven's Gate mass suicide, Thought Contagion and the Heaven's Gate Tragedy.


** Definition of Meme, as it has been used in Thought Contagion Theory

MEME: (pronounced 'meem') 1. A self-spreading thought, idea, attitude, belief, or other brain-stored item of learned culture. 2. (Technical usage) A memory item, or portion of an organism's neurally-stored information, whose occurrence depended critically on causation by prior occurrence of the same memory item in one or more other organisms' nervous systems.

See Units, Events, and Dynamics in Memetic Evolution and its post publication comments for more rigorous discussion of the definition and 'sameness' of memory items. See Thought Contagion for further explanation in lay terms. For all works listed on these pages, the word "meme" is expendable: it can simply be replaced with less formally defined terms such as "idea," "belief," etc. or with more formal terms such as "culturally transmitted memory item," "memory contagion," or "mnemon contagion." Thought contagion theory does not require the word.

Note that the definition given above is not the same as one recently added to the Oxford English Dictionary. The OED definition is far less specific, reading "An element of a culture that may be considered to be passed on by non-genetic means, esp. imitation." First, the OED definition poses the problem of deciding when an idea or memory item is "an element of a culture." Additionally, it contains what many would consider redundancies that leave the definition reducible to simply "an element of a culture." Lexicographers may have arrived at that broad definition by looking for some common thread of meaning among the numerous popular uses of the word "meme," but the definition unfortunately renders the word less useful to those who wanted a term more precise and specific than simply "thought," "idea," "belief," etc. The situation raises doubts about the future use of the word in thought contagion theory.

In existing works of thought contagion theory that use the word "meme," the word does not identify any newly discovered entity. Rather, it merely takes the scientifically conservative step of giving a name to the interpersonally copied subset of brain-stored Information. This is also equivalent to the brain-stored subset of culture, even though non-brain stored cultural items such as chain letters and computer viruses can also replicate or co- replicate. The word "meme" does not create some kind of grand unification of the social sciences, nor does it seek to replace the existing social sciences. As nothing more than convenient shorthand, the term "meme" is entirely dispensable in the evolutionary epidemiology of ideas. It is used on these pages only to discuss a limited but important subclass of ideas for which evolutionary replicator analysis is distinctly useful. It also does not depend on metaphor when explained in technical language. And it definitely does not warrant the extravagant, euphoric, or mystical interpretations that some writers on the Internet and elsewhere have suggested. Every science has a pseudoscience tagging alongside, and memetics is no exception--so reader beware!

Updated Definition of the term thought contagion

In order to avoid the confusion now swirling around the word meme, the more specific term thought contagion is coming into wider use. In the book Thought Contagion, the term thought contagion was defined informally to mean any self-propagating idea. Because any idea can play at least a passive role in self-propagation by merely existing in a person's brain, a more formal, general definition 2 is also possible. Together, definitions 1 and 2 are as follows:

THOUGHT CONTAGION: 1. A self-spreading thought, idea, attitude, belief, or other brain-stored item of learned culture. 2. (Technical usage) A memory item, or portion of an individual's neurally stored information, whose causation depended critically upon prior instantiation of the same memory item in one or more other individuals.

See the paper Units, Events, and Dynamics in the Evolutionary Epidemiology of Ideas for an up to date explanation of terminology.


What Thought Contagion Science Is and Is Not

Much as Darwinian evolution does not usefully explain all the molecules in the early oceans, so too should thought contagion theory not be invoked to explain every social phenomenon or every thought that comes to mind. When used appropriately, it still does not explain all aspects of a phenomenon, but rather joins with existing lines of social science.

Thought contagion theory is not part of a "genetic fundamentalism" movement. It even offers an explanation of why certain sociobiological ideas can proliferate with or without scientific validity. (See chapter excerpt.)



-- Anonymous, August 11, 2001

This stuff is so nutball, it makes believing that the world will end due to a computer bug seem almost rational, by comparison. cpr, my friend, you have been duped big time.

Why don't you try taking a breather from the Internet for a week, then re-looking at things. You might find life a whole lot better!

Have a good day.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

"Thoughts are Things", tell a friend.

hahaha

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


TK,

A good skeptic must back up his skepticism with facts. You are being skeptical without doing the research.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


I am amazed that people who can see how ludicrous some things are about Y2K hysteria, have been so suckered on this "meme" BS. I repeat: thoughts are not germs, they cannot be transmitted infectiously.

However you arrived at your ridiculous belief about this BS, you did it yourself after looking at the "evidence". You did it of your own free will, and will suffer whatever consequences or benefits of your silly, cult-like belief regarding this junk. You have nobody to blame but yourself.

I find this stuff at least as funny as the story on the other topic about the doctor who, on New Years Day 2000, was in an auto accident and didn't want to be treated at a hospital because he thought the Y2K bug would be running amock. Too funny!

([whispering]: Hey, Doc Paulie. I think I've got some suckers that are into this "thought contagionation" stuff. Maybe we could set up a "De-bunking Thought Contagionation" site and make some $$$$$ via your amazon.com connection. Whee-hah, the good ol' days are here again!)

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

"I repeat: thoughts are not germs, they cannot be transmitted infectiously."

Please go look up the word "metaphor" and then come back and talk to us.

Thanks.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


BTW,

I find this stuff at least as funny as the story on the other topic about the doctor who, on New Years Day 2000, was in an auto accident and didn't want to be treated at a hospital because he thought the Y2K bug would be running amock.

This story appears to be an urban legend (i.e. meme), though I havent' checked. Just a guess.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


Not a myth or urban legend, Buddy. It was Howard Rubin one of the Cutter Cutups and Professor at Hunter. I have the hard copy of the report and can post it if I have to.

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

Well, then, Charles, I guess we debunkers didn't do a good enough job!

LOL!

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


Can you catch a meme from a doorknob? Just curious...

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001

It's well-known that many bad memes come from folks who are dumb as doorknobs.

:)

-- Anonymous, August 13, 2001


Jonathan, my friend, consider this: Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. People heard about Y2K, they became concerned about Y2K, they made their decisions about what they would do about Y2K. Some came out winners, some came out losers, but everyone was accountable for the decisions that they made. This happens every day about lots of things

I believe in dreams. I don't believe in memes. Whatever decisions that I make, right or wrong, they are my own.

-- Anonymous, August 14, 2001

WHY DOES "TK" SOUND SO MUCH LIKE "CORY HILL" OR THE "OBNOXIOUS COLLEGE BOY" WHO ONCE ESSAYED FOR "COREEE__PEEING_IN_DEE_CEE?

ALL "SURFACE" ONE LINERS WITH NO SUBSTANCE BEHIND THEM?

-- Anonymous, August 14, 2001


BEEcause they are all MEMES. If they were not merely Memes, they would have more to add than a few boring one-liners.

No matter, TK will soon be leaving us when he returns to finish his Senior Year in HS.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2001


Doc & cpr, you guys really are nutcases fit to be tied! I'll be your poor families can't take you anywhere.


Jonathan, as I'm sure you know, once upon a time, scientists could not conceive of air without enveloping it in something they called an "ether" layer. Any theory or explanation on how the world worked always had to account for its effect on the ether. Eventually, it was realized that the whole ether thingy was completely superflous, and it was dropped entirely.

I suggest that you do the same with your memes.

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2001

It is not his Sr. Year in H.S. Unlike "Matt, the College Boy" and fan of Coreeee Pee in DeeeCee, neither TK or Concerned can string 2 facts together into a thought. All they can do is toss out the same cries of "nuttiness" re: Thought Contagions or indulge in name calling and smearing.

In the latter case, they have come to the right place. We give Graduate Courses in such things.

LOLOLOLOL

-- Anonymous, August 15, 2001


I will just keep posting this until I get a suitable answer.

BEFORE THIS GOES ANY FURTHER : DEFINE THE "thought contagionation nuttiness,"......I don't mean just dismiss it as you do here. DEFINE IT AND SPECIFICALLY TELL US WHY IT IS "nuttiness". FORGET THE SURFACE TREATMENT BS YOU TRY TO GET AWAY WITH. IN FACT, I CLAIM YOU DON"T KNOW THE FIRST THING YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT. PERIOD.

You may be right about "Confused"; only "Confused" knows for sure what his motives are. But, so far, the only pre-rollover debunker arguments that I have seen are heavy on the profanity and thought contagionation nuttiness, and rather light on facts.

-- TK (none@none.non), August 15, 2001




-- Anonymous, August 15, 2001

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