What's going on with gasoline and oil?

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Hi all. Just found tyhis forum recently and I've spent a lot of time downloading and reading various threads. Great informaiton! especailly for someone new to the land beyond the sidewalks. ONe question I have, does anyone have any insight or what my dad would call "forward looking information" about gasoline and oil supplies? Are we heading into another really bad energy crisis? What's that mean for someone who lives way out of the city in a small town/rural area?

A friend of mine sent me some posts about some recent news stories on coming oil shortages. One was from Bloomberg financial news and was predicting a million-barrel a day shortage by this winter unless OPEC really pumps up the volume. there was mroe about something called the Hubbert Curve, but I haven't had a chance to do any research yet. gas prices around ehre are back up to $1.52 for self-serve regular, and that's as high as it got back in February and March, when everyone was shouting about oil prices. Gas pricves always go up here in the summer, but the tourists aren't even here yet. Guess I'm a little worried, since we don't have a woodstove installed yet. Do we buy firewood now and dry it through the summer? Will heating oil be bad this winter? I'm not looking for Nostrodamus here, just some good advice, I guess, from people who have been out here longer than we have. Thanks.

-- Newbie (Newbie@newengland.com), May 18, 2000

Answers

Newbie, I can't tell you what oil supplies will be this coming winter but wood I know about. If the wood you buy is green (freshly cut) it won't be ready for this winter. Try and buy seasoned wood instead. If oil prices go up and/or there are shortages, firewood prices will go up and there will also be shortages.

Somethings you can do over the summer to help you this coming winter are to make sure your house is well insulated, cracks are repaired, storm windows are ready, the general energy saving recommendations.

You might want to get your woodstove installed yet this spring if you live fairly far north where it is still a bit chilly. That way you can make sure it is properly installed and works properly.

And welcome to the board. Glad you're finding it useful. Gerbil

-- Gerbil (ima_gerbil@hotmail.com), May 18, 2000.

Newbie, here is a forum with all the info you might need:

http://pub3.ezboard.com/fdownstreamventurespetroleummarkets

interesting!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), May 18, 2000.

Our gas is $1.60 still, that is the lowest it has been since it shot up last winter. Back in the 70s you could buy a Nissan or Toyota pickup with diesel engines, they got 50 mpg, I still see some of them around but in the rest of the world you can still buy them new but, not here, dose anybody know why? I suppose it is an emission problem.

I am on the verge of taking the wood heater out of my house and put in LP-gas space heaters. LP tho expensive, usually stays level in price when fuel oil up and down, it is clean burning and with new stove one can get a high effiency rate. Firewood in my area is now $165 a cord green to $225 seasoned my stove is rated, (under labratory conditions) at 75% efficent which means that probably 35% of the heat is going up the stack. The "Pocket Reference" lists Propane as 78% efficient and wood at 55% so if I get 90% of 78% with propane, I think I am way ahead of the 75% of 55% for wood. I don't have the bark, dirt and ash in the house. On the other hand I have a good wood heater in the shop and the one in our house wil go out to a studio. I have 6 full cords of seasoned oak and madrone that should last for several years.

-- Hendo (redgate@echoweb.net), May 19, 2000.

Hendo is probably right and usually is. However, there is nothing quite as warm to a house as a woodstove (except a very passionate woman). We heat a 4 bedroom(used to be 6) 2 story farmhouse with a mama bear(24 inch lengths friendly and a Buck fireplace insert. The house stays above 75 degrees all the time. I occasionally get lazy before my morning shower and kick on the propane furnace for an hour. all together we burned 3 cords of oak and 385 gallons of propane in a year and a half. Total cost--500 dollars ! Not bad--I don't care how efficient--that is dirt cheap for utilities and a 75 degree house in winter. I don't believe we have any oil shortage--just millionaires striving to be billionaires--same ole story, same ole song and dance. This ain't my first rodeo--1972--1979--1988--1999--anyone else see the pattern ?

-- Joel Rosen (Joel681@webtv.net), May 19, 2000.

Joel, Yup!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), May 19, 2000.

Newbie, I just happen to have a new, German(?) made wood stove for sale. I live in Florida (gets cold here too). Blasted thing is taking up space (guess Noah must have said the same thing about the Ark.) I want to sell sans stove, for no more than I paid. It was a life experience. Handle is fake, but if you respond, then mebbe we can hook up.

-- Garage (S@le.com), May 19, 2000.

Newbie, Can't swear on what I'm about to say but I have a close friend who worked in the OPEC countries for 15 or so years. He has told me that the OPEC countries are really not to blame. He said that the whole thing is controlled by gready, moneyhungry oil tycoons here in the USA who up the prices, make a ton of $, and blame it on the OPEC countries. Eagle

-- eagle (eagle@alpha1.net), May 20, 2000.

There was a brief tidbit in US News and World Report last week about heating oil prices for next winter. From memory the jest was that since prices are still high, domestic suppliers are not stocking up during warmer months for winter months as they usually do. Prices will most likely be higher the closer it is to colder weather. Obviously they will pass these higher costs onto consumers. I am pretty sure the article said prices could go twice as high as they were last year. Don't quote me, but it was good warning for all of us. I plan on insulating the attic a little more this summer and doing everything I can to conserve. I live in town and have limited choices as to changing our heating system. I will be looking for ways to keep our heat in! Y2K got us on track and I would like to take it further! I would be interested in what you folks think is the best time of the year to purchase kerosene. We use a kerosene heater to knock the chill off in the mornings and at night. It is never left unsupervised, but WOW! what a difference in our heating bills last year. Comfort level is way up too! Now that the kids are getting older the thermostat is being kept lower at night and that helps too.

-- Jennifer (KY) (acornfork@hotmail.com), May 20, 2000.

sounds like if you have any money to invest, and are a person who does invest to invest in oil and gas companies. at least as a consumer, you can figure you will get back some of your money as an investor! hmmmmm, let me change that last sentence. at least as a consumer, you can figure you MIGHT get back some of your money as an investor! stock prices don't always go up, you know?

-- michael w. smith (kirklbb@penn.com), May 21, 2000.

Newbie, I think you're right to be worried about petroleum supplies. Under normal circumstances I'd second Hendo's ideas, but I've recently seen reports that natural gas supplies are going to be tighter and much more expensive this winter. As for the Hubbert Curve, go to www.dieoff.com for more info. There is also the Hubbert Curve newsletter published by the Colorado School of Mines available on the web.

I found this report posted on another forum, thought it might be of interest here. It appears that the Arabs are learning it's better to sell a little for a lot than a lot for a little. No mention of non-Arab oil producers, altho previous reports have noted that Norway, Columbia, and Venz are all having trouble meeting current quotas, much less higher ones. Fair use and all that.

"Riyadh, May 22 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. has told Arab oil producers that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries must increase output by as much as 1.5 million barrels a day from July in order to keep crude oil in New York at under $25 a barrel during the second half of the year, the Middle East Economic Survey reported, without citing sources. U.S. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson's deputy David Goldwyn, who was in the Persian Gulf last week to meet with some of the region's producers, including Saudi Arabia, told the OPEC members that the exporters group should consider boosting their existing production ceiling by 1.3 to 1.5 million barrels a day when the group meets on June 21. Saudi Arabia, OPEC's biggest producer, has since said there's no justification for the exporters' group to boost their current production ceiling, which stands at 24.7 million barrels a day and excludes Iraq, as current oil prices are satisfactory, MEES reported.

"U.S., along with other consumers, including Japan and Korea, is concerned that oil prices, which rose above $30 a barrel last week in New York, could boost inflation and stunt economic growth in their respective economies.

************************************

"Kuwait's Oil Minister Sheikh Saud Nasser al-Sabah, said, ``The present price of oil on the international market is fair,'' and added, that he hoped ``they would continue at current levels,'' Kuwait's official KUNA news agency reported.

"Crude oil for June delivery closed at $29.89 a barrel Friday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after closing at $30.33 on Thursday, the highest since March 17. Prices rose as high as $34.37 in March."

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), May 22, 2000.

Folks, we are completing a new fuel system that will give and average of 5 times the normal gasoline miles per gallon. We have 3 working models already but they are too big to suit me. The 4th will be done shortly with testing scheduled to begin in about a month. It will be a smaller unit suitable for the 4 cylinder S-10, Ford rangers etc. OPEC as well as major AMerican Oil companies are ripping the public. Greed has overtaken all of them and if they want more all they do is raise the price. What are you gonna do? If you have to or want to drive you WILL pay their price. Even with a high mileage fuel system it still takes gasoline to operate it. The gasoline you buy isn't fit to burn and some does not. It gomms up the works on a vapor system leaving a thick gooey residue initally. If left inside the unit it will bake hard and coat all the inner workings making the system slowly lose it's efficiency. My advice---don't get too angry or upset about the price of oil, gasoline, L.P. or fuel oil. It WILL not be cheap again! For those interested in my fuel system you can email for further information. Matt. 24:44

-- hoot gibson (hoot@otbnet.com), May 22, 2000.

Hi again: I just wanted to thank everyone for your posts. sorry I didn't do this earlier, but gosh things are busy this time of year. We actually biult a compost pilel that produced real compost. I know, that's probably no big deal around here, but it's a first for us. Everyone's advice was really good, altho I'm not too sure about the guy who said he had some kind of magic engine thingy that would triple gas mileage. We have cheap firewood and expensive propane up here, so I guess we'll stick with wood heat for now. Cash, thank you for the dieoff site tip. the site is huge! Can't read it all now -- maybe next winter :-) Thanks for the woodstove offer, but we alrady have one, a Tempwood, that should be hooked up this weekend. Thanks agian. I'll be around, lurking mostly, in between all the other stuff as time allows. Newbie

-- Newbie (Newbie@newengland.com), May 25, 2000.

Two or three Sundays ago there was a long opinion piece in the Outlook section of The Washington Post on this subject. I couldn't believe that what I was reading was printed in The Washington Post.

The full-page article placed the blame for the surge in gasoline prices directly on Al Gore.

It seems that he was in charge of formulating a policy to help Russia's economy. One of the centerpieces of that policy was to increase the value of Russia's oil reserves.

In other words, bail out the miserable Russian economy by increasing the price of oil.

It worked.

-- walt (longyear@shentel.net), May 25, 2000.

Walt, there is also a theory that the Bush family has engineered this crisis...remember Geo. Sr. has big time ties with the Saudis, plus we/he saved Kuwait,etc. The theory is that the economy gets screwed up with the Clinton/Gore team, and the Bush family rides to the rescue, and just happens to win the Nov. election.

Also there is a theory that the various Islamic nations in the MidEast are doing a fund raiser in order to pay off the $$$$ it is costing them to buy out the Israeli lands in the Peace Plan. What's a few more $$ per barrel to them?

Don't forget the refinery problems we have been experiencing in the US.

So many theories, so little time to believe any of them, and I think it hardly matters. I think the financial masters that hold the puppet strings of our various governments control it all, so I will just get more wood in for next year, take the bus, ride my bike, walk, ride a horse, or forget about it.

Guess I sound cynical...

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), May 25, 2000.

p.s. the Russian economy is hardly bailed out! What is that saying: Bangladesh with nukes? That's what they call Russia. I know someone who is a big shot with major Oil co. in Kazhakstan (I can't even spell it) who lives in Moscow. I think he would rather live in the Black hole of Calcutta...

I am an independent voter, so I feel comfortable dissing the Dems or Reps!

-- sheepish (rborgo@gte.net), May 25, 2000.

Newbie! In response to the "guy with the magic 'thingy' that triples gasoline mileage"--! You don't have to believe it but before you reject it as hogwash-do some research on high mileage carb systems. Charles Nelson Pogue of Canade built a "thingy" and installed it on a 1935 Ford. He got over 200 mpg. The name of his company was Economy Carb Company. His "thingy" was installed on U.S. Tanks and Jeeps in WW II in the North Africa battle. They attained mpg from 4gpm to 4 mpg. A tremendous increase that allowed America to defeat the enemy because they couldn't get the mileage our units did. After it was over the carb's were removed and sent back to America. Pogue was probably the first but certainly not the only one. Many have been built, patented and patents bought. The number one buyer of those patents is the U.S. Gov't. Of the Gov't the largest buyer of those patents is NASA. Sound odd? You bet! Lots of people have made claims before about something or other. I'm NOT on of those. My fuel system DOES work. Oh yes, it wasn't triple it was 5 times the normal mpg. This system of mine is a variation of Pogues system only simplier, smaller, cheaper and easier to build. Matt. 24:44

-- hoot gibson (hoot@otbnet.com), May 25, 2000.

"Simpler, smaller, cheaper, and easier to build." Mr. Gibson, I don't want to get into a debate about the mythical or nonmythical qualities of the Pogue carburetor -- I've heard the North Africa story before. I've also heard it called hogwash by men who served there as tank drivers and mechanics. Pogue stories have been popping up since at least 1973, and I have yet to see one pan out. Even the famous GEET has faded away. But if yours is so much better and cheaper, please get it on the market NOW and stop posting teasers on internet bulletin boards.

Newbie, congrats on the compost. The stuff is magic in the garden. AS an update to your original post, Bloomberg carried a report yesterday or today to the effect that the US was pressuring the Arab oil countries to boost production before winter and the Arabs were saying no way. We're going into the summer driving season without the usual gasoline supply cushion that should have been built up in late winter and spring -- in fact, with a shortage of supply vs demand of at least 100,000 barrels a day. Anyway, the refineries will be concentrating on gasoline all summer. Usually they turn to building up heating oil stocks by midsummer, but that won't happen this year. Heating oil here in Maine is still around $1.20 a gallon, a time when it should be bottoming out for the summer doldrums. OPEC has already said that it will increase production by perhaps a million barrels a day in the fall, but by the end of the year that will still mean a shortfall of somewhere around 700,000 barrels a day.

In other words, for the rest of the year -- and maybe for the rest of our lives -- get used to higher petroleum prices and a lot of yo-yo-ing. If you change your own oil in your vehicles, stock up now on case lots at Sams or similar places. Same for chain oil and two-cycle mixer. That won't solve the problem, but it will put it off a little bit at the personal level. I'm ordering in some extra firewood and talking to my boss about shifting to a four-day work week to reduce the commuting costs. Might not need to make the change, but I'm laying the groundwork now just in case. Anyone have any other ideas?

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), May 25, 2000.

-- (noneofyour@biz.com), July 13, 2001