The short answer is "Of course not."

I'm going to be talking about NASDAQ, the tech stocks. That's where the real agony is.

At the end of 2000, when the investment talking heads on TV were doing their yearly wrapups, they were crying the blues!! as to what a terrible year 2000 had turned out to be. And what we have now is just a continuation, as more bad economic news is revealed (for example, the extent to which telecom equipment manufacturers made loans to customers so that the customers would buy their equipment, many of which loans have gone bad).

In the latter days of 2000, there were idiotic claims by people in both parties, as to why the market decline was the other party's fault. It was supposedly that there was fear of Bush as President, or alternatively, that Gore by keeping his challenge going was causing uncertainty which was upsetting the market. All total nonsense.

I cannot imagine how "better leadership" on the part of W. could have helped this mess.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Answers

Social Security Outlook Improves

By ANJETTA McQUEEN, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The nation's retirement programs will not run out of cash as early as previously thought, reflecting the vibrant health of the U.S. economy through much of last year, Social Security (news - web sites) and Medicare trustees said Monday.

The projected insolvency date of the Medicare trust fund was delayed by four years to 2029, and insolvency of the Social Security fund was put off by one year to 2038, the trustees' annual report said.

It marked the fourth year in a row that the retirement programs gained new years of life, reflecting the sizzling state of the nation's economy during the first half of last year. But the economy began to weaken at the end of last year and is now sputtering.

This year's improvement in the financial outlook of the retirement programs wasn't as dramatic as last year's projections.

Medicare, the health insurance program for the elderly and the disabled, had been projected last year to run out of cash in 2025, 10 years later than earlier forecast. That was moved to 2029 in the new estimate.

Social Security, the largest federal benefit program, had been expected to exhaust its trust funds in 2037, a three-year extension, in last year's report. The new date now is 2038.

The Bush administration said the programs, which now run huge surpluses, still face financial challenges as the aging baby boom generation begins to retire in the next decade.

``We have only so many years to get the systems back on track,'' Bush told Hispanic business leaders meeting at the White House. ``These nonpartisan reports underline and add an exclamation point to the need to reform and strengthen both Social Security and Medicare.''

The trustees paid particular attention to Medicare, whose spending is ultimately expected to exceed the costs of Social Security.

``The Medicare program as a whole presents financial challenges that will require integrated and comprehensive solutions,'' said Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, who sits on the board of trustees.

The additional four years added to Medicare's life in this report shouldn't been used as an ``excuse for complacency,'' O'Neill said.

O'Neill told reporters at a briefing that the recent stock market volatility should have no impact on the new projections about when Social Security and Medicare will run out of money.

``When you are doing a 75-year estimate ... what is happening today almost doesn't matter,'' he said. The long-range forecasts are based on estimates of economic growth, employment and incomes in the coming decades.

The projections come as Republicans in Congress and liberal Democrats battle over expanding the Medicare program, including potentially costly but politically popular prescription drug benefits.

Bush had called for overhauling the program to include competition from private health plans before extending benefits to all participants. Democrats prefer coverage for all participants with incremental reforms to ensure the program's future ability to handle the baby boom generation.

Health and Human Services (news - web sites) Secretary Tommy Thompson, another trustee, said momentum to add the drug benefit should include a program overhaul.

``Why don't we do the whole thing now?'' he said. ``We have the time and the means to modernize and improve Medicare. This report tells us that we must.''

The report also said that Social Security and Medicare will have to start dipping into their trust funds in 2016, when they will no longer be taking in more money than they have to pay out.

Economic factors that brought brighter prospects for Social Security and Medicare this year included low unemployment rates. More Americans working meant more payroll taxes to support the two programs, padding their balance sheets.

Low inflation also saves money for the Social Security system because yearly cost-of-living raises to retirees are smaller.

But rapidly rising health costs pose an additional challenge for Medicare's financial health, experts say.

Medicare spending had slowed slightly in recent years, mainly because of cuts mandated by Congress in 1997 and a crackdown on fraud and billing errors. That spending won't keep falling, however, as Congress restores some of the cuts and the nation's elderly population grows.

Health care costs could also temper the optimism of the traditionally conservative trustees, who include the secretaries of labor, treasury and health, plus the Social Security commissioner and scholars.

``The trustees might have to go back and reconsider some of the assumptions about medical costs,'' David Johns, a Social Security analyst with the Heritage Foundation, said in an interview Friday.

Recent reports put the nation's annual health care spending at a record $1.2 trillion - with prescription drugs accounting for nearly 10 percent of the costs. Federal economists expect drug spending alone to increase fourfold by 2010.

And Congress, looking to keep election-year vows to add benefits to Medicare, will have to confront the program's financial health.

President Bush (news - web sites) and some Republican leaders are insisting on a comprehensive long-term plan for reforming Medicare.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Bada bing...

Now why would an Administartion, a Party badmouth this report? What tactic do these controllers, these thieves rely upon to the exclusion of all else?

F E A R

American is in retreat because we have leaders who sell helplessness and fear. These are not leaders or even very intelligent people. Might as well be Mike Adams or Gary North in power, who would complain but all them evil Liberals, right? That be anybody and everything not buying into the "program". Folks who have the sheer balls to exercise their First Amendment rights.

Instead of positive comments on Social Security, these people chose to tow the Party line. They took it as yet another opportunity to disrespect the American Public and say "hey wait a minute if we don't PREPARE, we fucked folks". This rests on the assumption zero has been done for eight freaking years under that evil dude Billy C. Course the facts say completely the opposite but never you mind MORONS.

NOBODY is saying we must not continue to improve SS, but it is assumed. And you guessed it, them people doing squat would be them Liberals. 8 years they did squat and look at the mess!

Stock Market is beyond a correction, confidence is in crisis.

Bush's response to the California Energy mess I would rate as the tonesetter. This event has signaled we are without Leadership in Washington.

Another key factor in the woes of Wall Street is a lack of ANY Tech policy from these manurespreaders. Unlike Al Gore in the Clinton Administration, this one lacks much of any concern with Americas truly last remaining industry, Technology.

We are at a point in this Tech evolution where we need Governmental Leadership on Broadband. We need Presidential Commissions working on policies, initiatives, and laws to move us forward. We have ZERO and thus ultimately why would anyone want to invest in Tech Stocks given a dial-up reality in the forseeable future?

Future looks gloomy and thus we have little confidence to buy anything, invest anything. Doubt this? Follow Bush we screwed.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Doc,

Time for another Patented Poole Prediction.(tm) :)

Within the next year, the Dow hit a new record high. The markets, in general, will grow by 50% over about a 6 month period of time once that takeoff begins.

Hey, the overpriced "dot.nothings" have been a dumb bet all along (and I've been saying that since Amazon.com first went public a few years ago ... although more than a few people have gotten rich speculating on the worthless things!), but this doesn't mean that stocks themselves are going to continue their decline.

Here's one key indicator that our money advisor talked about on the air today: the mutual funds are currently sitting on about three trillion, just waiting for signs that the current bearlet is bottoming out. Once it does, they're going to dump that money back into the Dow and the S&P and they're going the explode again.

You heard it here first and you can mark the date on this one. Wait for it. :)

(Of course, then you'll have to figure out some way to blame THAT on Bush -- which is amazing, considering that the current decline began in earnest while Clinton was still President -- but hey; that's what makes this so much fun.)

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Need more evidence? Bush Now 'Very Confident' on Economy

So which is it? And how does this flip-flopping indicate anything other than MORONS are in control? Who swallows this waffling? Politics is one thing, this behavior indicates more than just agenda it indicates stupidity.

You try planning into this reality.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

No Poole the decline on Wall Street started the day FoxNews declared Shrub the whiner! Go look at the data. Go back also to the manufactured Oil Crisis for clues to why even this yo-yo got elected. How the raise in energy costs is at the root of Shrub and this downtrun.

You give amazon and garden.com way too much credit in case you care. Course THEY want you to believe these small fry, many of which would have gone bye-bye anyway, matter.

As to your claim just wait, I reply no kidding. This Bush SPIN flys because ultimately even this moron cannot stop the will of millions of BabyBoomers.

I think it important on a personal level to learn how one is controlled. How manipulators operate. I find it simply amazing many here who spent YEARS on the Y2k JOKE, can still fall for the same-old tired BS.

I mean hell look at who supported this Bush growth. Joe Farah etc etc etc. How hard is this stuff?

and forgive me for questioning all you know-it-alls.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Question for Doc Paulie:

Your post covers practically everything but the kitchen sink, whereas I was making one restricted point, that Bush is not to blame for our current stock market woes. (He could screw the stock market even worse in the future if he isn't careful, I would also argue strongly.)

Do you agree with my restricted point or not?

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Poole please direct me to growth stocks/start-ups/new ventures showing profits in ANY industry. Thanks.

The DOT COM bashing flys cause these "people" do not like the power destablizing nature of it(technology). They play this card cause many old foggeys "just don't like them computers". They also find it downright wrong these Liberals in Silicon Valley be makin a pile of ducats.

Tech is destablizing to TPTB, that simple.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

Peter I have shared my opinion. YES I do think this downturn is largely about Bush. Not all of it and I will assume you understand the points are dramatic and not the whole truth for a reason. I know I take a huge gamble doing this but hey, can we agree nobody here thinks 100% either way? That most of us here are in the middle politically?

Money is changing hands. In California alone Billlions and Billions have flowed out of that state and into the hands of some very scary Capitalists who think it just their damn right to auction off everything from electricity to bandwidth. Folks who if they could, would make you bid on your air. Oops I forgot, they already do with smog allotments(nevermind).

This is a game. Most understand this. The troubling part is many really believe this Bush guy simply unqualified. There is just a tad more indecisiveness than one likes. He preposes, he backtracks. He is this way on Monday, by late Tuesday this has changed dramatically. Indications are very little of his rap is thought through, thus the doubts.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

To Doc Paulie:

The decline on Wall Street started last April.

As far as the factors you mention, I don't think they have affected the market so far, but that's not to say they won't figure in future stock market troubles. I think we could have new bad developments in the near future. Let me explain one of my worries: Bush and the Congressional Republicans decide to demagogue - anything goes - to pass Bush's tax cut. So they tell America, "We have a choice between continuing prosperity, if our tax cut is passed, or a really nasty recession if it is not. And if we get this nasty recession, it will all be the Democrats fault, for not supporting our tax bill."

Now this is total hogshit, but if enough people believed it to give the consumer confidence index a real kick in the slats....well, you get the picture.

-- Anonymous, March 19, 2001

One year ago the NASDAQ was 5000. Now it is 1950. NASDAQ

It is all Hillary's fault.

-- Anonymous, March 20, 2001

No "huge gamble" here Doc. Still, whatever the billions extracted from taxpayers to keep the airconditioners on here the blame, my friend, must fall to the CA legislature. They created this almost a deregulation. They are the ones scared stiff to let out that dirty little secret that we consumers are gonna just have to pay what power costs. Not comfy for them as they're the same good old Dem crowd that has prevented building significant power supplies. They high five themselves pretty good when a 200Kw bunch of windmills spin but fold when financing normal maintainence on 1000Mw gas plants. Well, what the hell, you can still get front seats at the Oscars and every politician out here knows there's nothing more valuable to the old campaign than a rich Thesbian you don't really have to suck.

-- Anonymous, March 20, 2001

For your reading enjoyment! and do click around once at these websites for further details.

http://www.consumerwatchdog.or g/

http://www.citizen.org/press/pr-cmep107.htm

-- Anonymous, March 20, 2001

Stocks Drop Uninspired by Fed's Rate Cut

Peter I think you have your answer.

I agree with Poole however that a huge rally is just around the corner. Trick is determining where that is.

-- Anonymous, March 20, 2001

For me, I will look at the morning calls:

Morning Calls

While you can't make much of a few days, if they are low, I will believe in the second Bush recession. If not, not.

Based on history, these things take decades to turn around; expecially if you look at the M3 data.

Cheers,,,,

Z

-- Anonymous, March 20, 2001

Well, we are halfway through the day. The fundamentals don't support even the present market levels. For example, see the advance/decline line:

Line

The data are consistent with the development of a second Bush recession. Still, it would be foolish for anyone to reach that conclusion based on a few days of market activity. Especially, me, since I am usually wrong.

I have been right once. At the beginning of last March, against my advisors recommendation, I dropped equity investment to the lowest level possible to maintain an account and put the money in more liquid investments. Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn.

The problem with these Republican recessions is [in my experience] that they result in a large transfer of wealth from the middle class to the upper income class and take a decade for recovery. The interesting thing [this time] is that many middle class folks [at least in some of the Cali cities I spend time in] are [or were] worth more than a million.

Best Wishes,,,,

Z

-- Anonymous, March 21, 2001

Wow:

DOW down 230.15. Maybe I am learning something from setting in on these University Marketing Courses. The WOW is for them and not for me. I am not into making a fortune; just want to understand this stuff. Courses are free for me.

Cheers,,,

Z

-- Anonymous, March 21, 2001

This reminds me of that ever-present question, which keeps us all awake nights --

"If the cat poots, will the sun rise tomorrow?"

-- Anonymous, March 25, 2001