Based on the time line below, he should be "revising" his Y2k crazy views long about 2013.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx http://www.yourdon.com/tyr/issues/Vol02/0202.html

In any case, I was so impressed by what I saw in India in 1989, and so concerned about the potential competitive impact on the American software industry, that I wrote a book entitled Decline and Fall of the American Programmer in 1992. My American friends were not entirely pleased with the future that I predicted, and subsequent events have obviously demonstrated that the US software industry is still alive and well. But my Indian friends were delighted, and they feel that while my predictions about the US industry were perhaps too pessimistic, my predictions about the Indian industry were justifiably optimistic. Throughout the 1990s, the annual compounded growth rate of the Indian software industry was approximately 50%, reaching a level of $3.9 billion for the 1998-99 fiscal year. For Americans accustomed to the staggering figures associated with the US economy, this might not seem like much; but IndiaÕs National Association of Software and Services Companies (NASSCOM) has estimated that a continuation of the industryÕs growth rate could lead to annual software exports of $50 billion by 2008. And the US investment bank Goldman Sachs issued a report last October indicating that India could generate $30 billion in IT service-industry revenues as early as 2004, a figure that would represent roughly five percent of the estimated $585 global market for such service. And lest you think that all of this is relevant only to the US marketplace, it's worth noting that the chairman of China's National People's Congress, Li Peng, visited Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) premises in Bangalore, a high-level Chinese delegation, a week before I arrived for this latest visit.

-- Anonymous, February 01, 2001

Answers

The first thing I ever saw on Y2K Doom was a sample copy of Gary North's Remnant Review. I thought it was the funniest thing I'd ever read.

In 1998, I ran across one of Yourdon's screeds on the thing and noted that he was the guy who'd written Decline and Fall, then followed it with another book that completely contradicted what he'd said in the first one.

Needless to say, even at that early date -- long before I joined the Debunking Team online, mind you -- I decided that I wouldn't take the guy (or Y2K) very seriously. :)

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

The first thing I ever saw about Y2k was a mainstream article (horrors!) about Dr. Ed Yardeni.

I became a Doomer-Lite along the lines of what EY thought. (We need not go into the progression history of Doomer -> whatever -> Debunker.)

Still do respect Ed Yardeni and his opinions though. He had enough sense to revise his thinking....unlike some other Eds we could name.

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

The funny thing is that the best programmers in India are leaving for jobs in the U.S. in droves.

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

The funny thing is that the best programmers in India are leaving for jobs in the U.S. in droves.

It isn't so "funny" to the American IT workers, Buddy. While the press continues to state that Americans can't fill jobs in technology, workers [mostly from India] are flooding our markets here. The recruiters calling now ALL have Indian names. SO took a job in Arizona recently that had 11 Indians in training and 3 Americans. This was TRAINING. His latest contract is in D.C. I asked how many on the team [We're talking about mainframe stuff here] were Indian. He said, "Half."

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

Anita,

I just thought it was ironic how Yourdon was talking about the growth of the software industry in India, when the reality is that many of their best programmers are moving here.

There is an IT worker shortage in the DC area. There aren't enough Americans with the skills to fill all the open positions. And there aren't enough Americans with the basic skills required in order to be trained in IT either. The Indians I'm seeing all have the basic skills required--strong English and Math skills--that too many Americans don't have. So far, from what I've seen, this situation isn't hurting Americans with IT skills. Instead, it's hurting Americans who want to get IT skills. They can't compete because their basic skills just don't cut it. Too much entitlement mentality going around if you ask me.

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

Your experiences are [obviously] different than ours, Buddy. I pursued teaching because my degree in C.S. [minor in math] wasn't getting me anywhere. Training programs for ME were unheard of, but they're openly offered to Indians entering the country, as well they should be, because the folks offering the training are Indians themselves.

It's not my intent to sound jingoistic, but I know many computer science graduates [with minors in math] who are now in other fields because the marketplace preferred the immigrants to American workers. It wasn't even as though we asked for more money than these folks. We were simply never asked to apply.

-- Anonymous, February 02, 2001

The americanssee a future in IT so they take IT courses. The Indians learn programming which take more work and skills. The basic IT degree is not much more than a data processor with business thrown in and one or two classes in basic programming of some sort. Industry has a blind spot where IT's are concerned, they think that IT's know how to do everything and can do anything. If they really knew that a good portion of the training IT's get is in how to convince their bosses they need to spend large amounts of time and money in research, developement, meetings, etc, you know those things that take up lots of time before they even start implimenting the software (which someone else has developed) and attuning it to the needs of the business.

Whith the Indian workers, you get people who know the programs they impliment down to the software, they understand how it works, the machine leval functions.

Y2K brought the truth out into the open, those who did the actual work were the programmers, a lot of IT's went around in circles attempting to use the skills they had learned to ?manage" everything. Business finally learned to bypass the IT's and went right for the programmers.

The reason Indians are getting hired over American IT's is that they are more skilled.

Unfortunatly IT is a lable that is being ud=sed to cover a wide range of talant and skill sets.

-- Anonymous, February 03, 2001

To CPR:

From everyone's comments about Indian programmers, one has to conclude that the threat to American programmers' jobs, which Ed Yourdon referred to in 1989, turned out to be a very real threat.

Therefore you clearly owe Ed Yourdon an apology. I trust that you will do the manly thing and acknowledge your error.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2001

Why in the world is Erringboy allowed OUT ON WEEKENDS?

Aren't total SHITHEADS supposed to stay where they can't hurt themselves?

Someone ask Brainless Erring-Boy when was Your-Toasted and Fried correct? When he wrote about the 'Decline and Fall of Am.Prg." or when he wrote about "the Rise and Resurrection of Am.Prg."?? OR.......was he on the 3rd bite of his Trilogy ripped off from online chats: "Death March"??

OR.......when he re-wrote Gary North's outline and FLESHED IT OUT WITH TOTAL YOUR-TOASTED BULL SHIT??

Yourdon owes a major groveling to all the people he mislead with StinkBomb 2000. They reported 250,000 copies sold.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2001

All I said, which you would realize if you stopped your brainless screaming, is that in this one particular instance, this one single case, what Ed said, with respect to the threat to American programmers' jobs, had merit.

-- Anonymous, February 04, 2001

Anita,

There are plenty of jobs in the Washington, DC area for people with your background. We are Silicon Valley East now.

-- Anonymous, February 05, 2001

I understand, Buddy, that Washington, D.C. has become the Silicon Vally of the East. I've had to change my plans here of late because my mom's money is REALLY running out. She has, maybe, three months tops at the assisted-care living facility here in Texas, so I've dropped the pursuit of the teaching thing to get a job to help her out. Teachers in Texas make $33,000/year with no health insurance, and administrative assistants here make more than that WITH insurance.

As I said, SO is already on contract in Washington, D.C. Local contracts exist, but they're a lot harder to get. We typically hear nothing after sending a resume, while in D.C., one gets an immediate response that says, "Come NOW!". Because I'm between a rock and a hard place here, I'm going to continue to pursue jobs locally as long as I can. I don't want to leave the house unattended, and I don't want to leave my mom here in Texas wondering why the hell I dumped her here.

Each job posted gets so many responses that the locals barely have a chance at a review [or so it seems, in my mind.] Again, I don't want to sound jingoistic, but I was heartened by an ad I saw today that fit my experience perfectly and said, "CLIENT IS ONLY CONSIDERING LOCAL DFW RESIDENTS AND US CITIZENS AT THIS TIME!!!!!!"

-- Anonymous, February 05, 2001

Cherri:

I don't know where you received this information. I've been involved in three separate programs in C.S. at three different colleges and Universities, and I've not seen what you state.

I DID have a few students when I was teaching Computer Science in Illinois who just didn't have what it took. They'd heard that there was easy money to be made in C.S. and ended up in my class. They were weeded out when I gave the programming aptitude test. Only one girl tried to pursue the curriculum despite her test results, and I'm guilty for being "soft" on her. I said, "I'll give you a 'D' in this class if you promise me that you'll choose another major." She promised, I gave her the 'D', and I saw her name enrolled in the program the next semester, although she wasn't in any of my classes.

-- Anonymous, February 05, 2001

>when I gave the programming aptitude test.

Glad to run into you online again, Anita. I'm sorry to hear that you've had to change your plans, but you're right about teaching salaries.

Can you give me some more details about the programming aptitude test that you used? I'd like to get a copy to one of our interns. Tks.

-- Anonymous, February 07, 2001

Kb8:

I'd taken the test before I pursued the profession myself. There was a time when I was 17, working as a secretary in the Operations Research Department of a large oil company when I mentioned to my boss that I was interested in being a programmer. He was really an agreeable sort, and said, "I'll get a programming apptitude test for you." After I'd taken the test, he said, "The good news is that you did really well on the test." "The bad news is that I'll be losing a great secretary, as I've signed you up for programming training."

The company offered a three-month intensive training in computer programming at the time. I remember how stupid I felt in that class. Another girl and I just couldn't ask enough questions. *I* felt out- of-place because I was just 17 and the only one in the class who hadn't yet graduated from University. At the end of the three months, I was one of only three left in the class. The others had all dropped out [thereby leaving the company.] The other girl who asked questions was one of the 3. It was quite comical to [years later] see the reviews of us from that class. One instructor wrote, "Anita will not ALLOW you to move on to the next topic until she completely understands the first." What a punk, eh?

Anyway, after I'd finished University, received my CS degree, etc., and taken the teaching job, I studied the catalog available for teachers. We were allowed to rent/buy all sorts of stuff, including movies [which provided a refreshing change to MY lectures, IMO]. One of the items on the list was the Programmer Aptitude Test.

-- Anonymous, February 07, 2001

Interesting! Amazing where those tests can lead. Good thing that your boss was nice enough to let you move on. I know some that wouldn't have been so honest. Good secretaries are worth their weight in rubies around here.

Sounds like you purchased the test as part of test kit, then. I'll do a search around the net at some point. This intern is from another department and thinks she wants to go into urban planning, but I think her skills and personality are more suited for programming or accounting.

-- Anonymous, February 07, 2001

Correct me if I'm wrong, Cherri, but I suspect that you see IT workers much like the following:

A shepherd was herding his flocks in a remote pasture when suddenly a brand new Jeep Cherokee advanced out of a dust cloud towards him. The driver, a young man in a Brioni suit, Gucci shoes, Ray Ban sunglasses and a YSL tie leaned out of the window and asked our shepherd: "If I can tell you exactly how many sheep you have in your flock, will you give me one?" The shepherd looks at the yuppie, then at his peacefully grazing flock and calmly answers "sure!" The yuppie parks the car, whips out his notebook, connects it to a cell-phone, surfs to a NASA page on the Internet where he calls up a GPS satellite navigation system, scans the area, opens up a database and some 60 Excel spreadsheets with complex formulas. Finally he prints out a 150 page report on his hi-tech miniaturized printer, turns round to our shepherd and says: "you have here exactly 1586 sheep!" "This is correct. As agreed, you can take one of the sheep," says the shepherd. He watches the young man make a selection and bundles it in his Cherokee. Then he says: "If I can tell you exactly what your business is, will you give me my sheep back?"

"Okay, why not" answers the young man. "You are a consultant," says the shepherd. "This is correct," says the yuppie, "How did you guess that?" "Easy" answers the shepherd. "You turn up here although nobody called you. You want to be paid for the answer to a question I already knew the solution to. And you don't know anything about my business because you took my dog."

IT is about programmers, and I'm as embarrassed about the consultants that spread all the Y2k garbage as anyone else.

-- Anonymous, February 07, 2001

Anita,

I enjoyed that one. :)

Peter,

Ed *wasn't* right, not in his conclusion. He says as much in the followup book Resurrection. Then he went all funky again for Y2K. I think the man suffers from multiple-personality syndrome sometimes.

I can say this, too, to the interchange between Anita and Buddy: I honestly believe a lot of this has to do with geographic location. I'm back in radio engineering now, but the general principle still holds: if you're in an area that's booming economically and that wants the service that you can provide, life looks good. If you're in an area where your skills aren't in demand, life will look bad.

When I moved out of the Fayetteville, NC area to Birmingham, the difference was like night and day.

Of course, if we could just get the Good Ol' Boy system cleaned up, it would REALLY be great. Russ and Dee are working on that one, though. :)

-- Anonymous, February 08, 2001