Analysis: Gore's possible gain overestimated

Miami-Dade's recount alone likely would not shift outcome

BY PETER WHORISKEY pjwhoriskey@herald.com

The ballots of Miami-Dade County may not be as rich in potential gains for Vice President Al Gore as his legal campaign has suggested, and a hand count of those ballots likely would turn up a net gain too small to swing the election alone, a Herald analysis shows.

Supporters of the Democrats have argued that the decision to abandon the Miami-Dade hand count, a decision made amid the tumult of Republican protesters, cost Gore hundreds of votes and might have proved decisive in the election.

The Gore campaign submitted legal documents on Monday indicating that, if Miami-Dade's hand count had proceeded, Gore might have picked up a net gain of about 600 votes -- more than enough to overcome the existing 537-vote deficit in the certified Florida count.

A Herald analysis of the abandoned hand count, however, suggests that Gore was more likely to realize a net gain of less than 300 votes.

Bruce Hansen, a University of Wisconsin economics professor who has shared recount calculations with the Gore and George W. Bush campaigns, using more refined calculations, similarly estimates that the hand count would turn up a net gain of 273 votes.

There is a measure of uncertainty in that projection, he says. However, the net gain from a Miami-Dade hand count is likely to be somewhere between 191 and 355. He based his analysis on precinct results provided by The Herald.

A member of the Gore campaign said Monday that its estimate of 600 potential votes in Miami-Dade, contained in legal pleadings, was ``pretty crude,'' intended largely to underscore the idea that the county's abandoned hand count would have turned up new Gore votes.

It was calculated on the assumption that the net gains Gore had realized in the partial Miami-Dade hand count -- 157 net votes in the first 135 precincts -- would continue at the same pace if the hand count were to resume for the remaining precincts.

Critical in these calculations are the 10,750 Miami-Dade ballots that showed no presidential votes when tallied by machine. The hand count in Miami-Dade was turning up a new vote on one of every five of the so-called undervote ballots considered.

When the decision to abandon the hand count came, elections officials had yet to review roughly 9,000 undervote ballots.

According to Gore campaign legal papers filed Monday in Leon Circuit Court:

``If these approximately 9,000 uncounted ballots result in the same proportional increase in net votes as the ballots that were counted by the Board before it stopped counting, these ballots would result in approximately 600 net additional votes for Gore/Lieberman.''

But, in fact, the precincts hand-counted before Wednesday's decision to suspend the hand count are not representative of Miami-Dade County voters. The hand-counted precincts generally are heavy Gore areas. While Gore won Miami-Dade with 53 percent of the votes, he was favored in the hand-counted precincts by a margin of more than 3-1.

The Gore campaign's estimate, Hansen said, does not reflect the fact that the precincts yet to be hand-counted are much different than those that have been counted so far.

``The Gore team's assumption is unrealistic,'' Hansen said.

``But they are right in that you don't really know what the answer is until you count. Randomness plays a big enough role here that until you sit down and count, you don't know the result,'' the professor added.

Did Gore stop recount in Miami-Dade when votes were going to Bush?

-- Anonymous, November 28, 2000

Answers

Err, no, he didn't.

And you are really going to have to work at it, to make me believe the Wall Street Journal is pro-Democrat.

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Amid the escalating Republican rhetoric, a mob of about 150 pro-Bush demonstrators stormed the offices of the election canvassers in Dade County on Nov. 22. The election board was beginning its examination of 10,750 disputed ballots, which had not previously been counted.

With the mob pounding on the walls and roughing up Democrats in the vicinity, the canvassing board abruptly reversed its decision. The uncounted ballots were discarded, amid cheers from the Bush partisans.

The mob action in Dade County effectively assured Bush's election to the presidency. Despite the use of intimidation to influence a decision by election officials, Bush and his top aides remained publicly silent about these disruptive tactics.

The Washington Post reported today that "even as the Bush campaign and the Republicans portray themselves as above the fray," national Republicans actually had joined in and helped finance the raucous protests.

These GOP operatives spotted among the demonstrators included Tom Pyle, an aide to House Majority Whip Tom DeLay, R-Texas, and Doug Heye, a spokesman for Rep. Richard W. Pombo, R-Calif., the Post reported.

"Many of the out-of-state GOP demonstrators told local reporters that the Republican National Committee paid for their travel, room and board, putting a number of them up at a Sheraton in Fort Lauderdale," the article said.

The Wall Street Journal added more details, including the fact that Bush offered personal words of encouragement to the rioters in a conference call to a Bush campaign-sponsored celebration on the night of Thanksgiving Day, one day after the canvassing board assault.

"The night's highlight was a conference call from Mr. Bush and running mate Dick Cheney, which included joking reference by both running mates to the incident in Miami, two [Republican] staffers in attendance say," according to the Journal. [Nov. 27, 2000]

The Journal also reported that the assault on the canvassing board was led by national Republican operatives "on all expense-paid trips, courtesy of the Bush campaign." After their success in Dade, the rioters moved on to Broward, where the protests remained unruly but failed to stop that count.

The Journal noted that "behind the rowdy rallies in South Florida this past weekend was a well-organized effort by Republican operatives to entice supporters to South Florida," with DeLay's Capitol Hill office taking charge of the recruitment.

About 200 Republican congressional staffers signed on, the Journal reported. They were put up at hotels, given $30 a day for food and "an invitation to an exclusive Thanksgiving Day party in Fort Lauderdale," the article said.

The Journal said there was no evidence of a similar Democratic strategy to fly in national party operatives. "This has allowed the Republicans to quickly gain the upper hand, protest-wise," the Journal said.

The Bush campaign also worked to conceal its hand. "Staffers who joined the effort say there has been an air of mystery to the operation. 'To tell you the truth, nobody knows who is calling the shots,' says one aide. Many nights, often very late, a memo is slipped underneath the hotel-room doors outlining coming events," the Journal reported.

After their victory in shutting down the Dade County recount, the national GOP operatives from the Bush campaign and Capitol Hill celebrated at a party at the Hyatt on Pier 66 in Fort Lauderdale. The Journal reported that "entertainer Wayne Newton crooned the song 'Danke Schoen'," the German words for thank you very much.

-- Anonymous, November 29, 2000

If Bush wins, and puts his policies into place, about 3000 babies a year who otherwise would have been "partially-aborted" will be singing the song 'Danke Schoen' as living human beings. Not to mention the many thousands of others who are aborted by 'more normal' means.

A vote for Al Gore is a vote for the 1st-degree, premeditated murder of unborn children. No ifs, ands, or buts.

Government-ordained genocide. And here we call ourselves a 'civilized' nation.

-- Anonymous, November 29, 2000

John, Clinton offered to sign such a bill banning PBA's, if the GOP would allow the single exception of when the mother's life would be in danger from other forms of operation.

The GOP refused.

Frankly, the GOP will NEVER pass any bill banning abortion. I do not care if they have House, Senate and President, which seems likely right now, they will not do it.

They have no intention whatsoever of giving up such a hot button issue.

In fact, I think you are about to get screwed on the biological issues big time, and soon, by the very Republicans you are supporting. They, of course, will blame it all on 'liberals'. Watch closely, and see who actually is proposing and voting for the bills/riders/amendments to the budget that will be used to put this stuff over.

Big money is lining up behind a bunch of things like stem cell treatments, and when big money talks, Republican leaders listen.

-- Anonymous, December 01, 2000

The Supreme Court struck down a Nebraska law that would have all but eliminated PBA as an undue burden on women. Even if a ban was passed, it wouldn't make it past the Supreme Court.

-- Anonymous, December 01, 2000