The number of threads on the 'oil crisis' seem to be increasing exponentially. How is it, then, that the price remains at about $25 per barrel just as it was before the end of last year? Surely this is a fairly good indicator of whether there actually *is* a problem?

Just as every day we have someone else making a non-materialising prediction about gold or the stock market, we now have major oil 'disasters' all over the world. Isn't it just possible that there have *always* been oil spills, ruptured/blown-up pipelines and production shortfalls? Of course it is.

For all the people who post 'extraordinary' news on this forum, how about attaching supporting evidence for a change that it is indeed not an everyday event?

By the way, I am a hardline doomer in case you were wondering. It is a pity that this forum is turning into a set of stories that people will simply laugh at in a couple of months' time. Let's stick to the facts, please!

-- Just Wondering (hmmm@hmmm.hmmm), January 20, 2000

Answers

Get your facts straight first

Oil is $28.05 per barrel today - not around $25.

http://www.cnnfn.com/markets/commodities.html

Also, why don't you use your REAL HANDLE if your a hardline doomer? Just wondering...

-- (now@I'm.wondering), January 20, 2000.

By the way, I am a hardline doomer in case you were wondering.

Yes, of course. We believe you. And you just happen to ignore all the problems that are happening right under your nose.

So, at the very least you're a liar. What remains to be seen is whether you are yet another industry shill, or just a plain ordinary troll.

-- (hal@gostek.org), January 20, 2000.

The price of Oil is over $29 per barrel (NY Merc Feb delivery), not $25. That is a multi year high. Before rollover, some of the oil price rise was atributed to pre-Y2K stockpiling. If that was the case, why is it still rising?

-- nobody (nobody@nowhere.com), January 20, 2000.

Thanks for your message, JW -- I'm rather with you on that front! And frankly, hearing a voice asking for verification from among those who are on the doomer side is increasingly rare, and therefore all the more welcome to hear.

-- Ned Raggett (ned@kuci.org), January 20, 2000.

Last I checked, oil was at $29.00+. I never claimed any of the articles (mine or others) were extraordinary, but there does seem to be an increase in refinery problems . . . perhaps not. But, the Venezuela problem is significant and will have an impact, particularly if its off for more than a month. At any rate, its the calm before the storm, and its fun to report something, even if its "minor".

-- robert bright (roosterbos@go.com), January 20, 2000.

Dr. Munn has been posting the reports, and running stats on the"mean deivation" etc. of 2000/current downed refineries, vs. preceding years. This is not a hyped story, say, like that nonsense about cellular relay towers as "guard towers".

-- >"< (nuts@upina.cellularrealytower), January 20, 2000.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000118/bcr.html

Link

Tuesday January 18, 6:07 pm Eastern Time

FOCUS-U.S. oil hits $29 for fear of OPEC

By Richard Mably

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Oil prices in the United States stormed to new highs on Tuesday as concerns grew that OPEC exporters will maintain a squeeze on supplies this year.

New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures set a nine-year high of $29 shortly before closing at $28.70, up 68 cents.

NYMEX heating oil gains were given added impetus by a severe cold spell in the northeastern United States, the world's largest market for the petroleum product. Heating oil jumped nearly three cents a gallon to finish at 76.70 cents, its highest since October 1996. The contract has risen 12 cents a gallon, 18 percent, in the space of a week.

Dealers said the recommendation from a group of OPEC ministers last week to extend the cartel's output limits beyond a scheduled expiry in March could press crude even higher in the short term.

OPEC oil ministers from Venezuela, Kuwait and Iran recommended 4.32 million barrels a day of supply limits. They made no reference to how long the curbs might be kept.

But OPEC's most influential policy maker, Ali al-Naimi of Saudi Arabia, said previously that he was happy with oil market conditions and could see no reason to change policy throughout the remainder of 2000.

Venezuela, one of the largest suppliers to the United States, has since sounded a note of caution but traders said that without more soothing words from exporters their could be higher prices to come.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Ali Rodriguez said on Monday that in his opinion the production limits would not be retained until year's end although he could not rule out that possibility.

Oil consuming nations are worried that inventories already at uncomfortably low levels will fall lower without more oil from OPEC.

``There is no doubt that the world oil market needs more oil,'' said David Knapp, head of the markets division at the Paris-based International Energy Agency.

Latest figures put U.S. crude stocks at 295 million barrels compared to an historic low of 284 million barrels recorded at the end of 1996.

Market analysts expect inventory levels in the next few weeks to go into deficit versus the lows of the winter of 1996-1997. U.S. crude stocks at end-January 1997 were 301 million barrels.

Dealers said the cold snap in the northeastern U.S. was likely to accelerate the stockdraw.

Forecasts are for temperatures in the U.S. northeast to remain below normal at least for the next ten days.

``It does look as if we're settling in for a lengthy cold spell in the northeast,'' said Joel Burgio of Weather Services Corp. ``It's going to stay very cold for the next week and remain below normal up to 12 days out. It's not possible to be sure yet but we think it could last for another week beyond that,'' he added.

-- (in@the.news), January 20, 2000.

Just Wondering, I was just wondering how you could be so confused. The $25 price for crude from three weeks ago was the February NYMEX contract. Today that contract closed at $29.66.

The March NYMEX contract closed at $28.05.

Instead of "Just Wondering", you might take a minute out and study these stats before you go off blabbering about something you obviously know nothing about!!!!!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 20, 2000.

Poor Ray - just desperate for the world to end. Last month it was Y2K, this month it's the "Oil Crisis!!!". Next month? Who knows, whatever satisfies his TEOTWAWKI urges...

-- Laughing at Ray (laughing@atray.com), January 20, 2000.

Maybe apologies are in order - not being an 'oil expert' I look only at the BBC site (Link), assuming that you be a good guide. It gives the price of Brent Crude, which has not changed over the past few weeks.

I do, however, maintain that there is an awful lot of hot air on this forum. Has anyone counted how many times the stock market is supposed to have crashed during the past 6 months? Gold gone to the moon? Let's face it, NOBODY knows what will happen so why don't we all just sit back and enjoy the ride, eh?

-- Just Wondering (hmmm@hmmm.hmmm), January 20, 2000.

Oil Prices Touch Post-Gulf War High

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000119/bs/world_costlier_oil_2.html

-- (in@the.news), January 20, 2000.

Just:

As per your last statement, now THAT I can agree with. Weren't we supposed to be annihilated a month ago in WWIII? Not to mention mass riots, grid failure, etc. I hope that all of us can just chill...

-- X (X@X.com), January 20, 2000.

Has anyone counted how many times the stock market is supposed to have crashed during the past 6 months?

You do know why the market was able to hold up as well as it did, don't you?

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001nPd

Link

=====

New York Federal Reserve Bank President William McDonough affirmed on Wednesday that the Fed had ``gone a long way'' toward addressing year-end liquidity fears that peaked in August and September of this year.

=====

Until the Fed came to the rescue, many investors said they were content to park money in safe, liquid short-term U.S. Treasuries and keep their money away from riskier assets such as stocks or debt from corporations and government-sponsored agencies. If that occurred, it might have led to a liquidity squeeze similar to what was seen last year at this time.

=====

-- It's (on@the.record), January 20, 2000.

Just Wondering, if you had asked why the forum was showing so much interest in oil when the price of crude had stayed the same for the last three weeks you would have received a dignified answer.

As for the stock market, a majority of stocks have been in a Bear Market over the past 18 months. In othe words, their value has gone down. This MANIA will end as all have before it, in disaster for our country and ouur citizens. The sad thing is that if prudent actions had been taken by the leaders of our country years ago the consequences would have been considerably less.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 20, 2000.

OILS WELL that ends well.

-- ThePunster (gloom@doom.com), January 20, 2000.

Whale Oil Beef Hooked (as the Irish say)

-- Y2KGardener (govegan@aloha.net), January 20, 2000.

Just Wondering, here is more information on the energy front,

2000-01-20 16:43:29 EST

***NYMEX OVERVIEW: HEATING OIL PRICES SOAR TO A RECORD CLOSE

1/20 (4:30 p.m. EST) This afternoon's rally intensified when heating oil prices moved to highs not seen since Persian Gulf War times.

February prices were unstoppable, soaring to a close of 86.46cts, up 6.43cts, to the disbelief of many traders. The March contract also turned in an impressive performance, gaining 2.55cts to close at 77.14.

Though most eyes were fastened on heating oil, crude and gasoline prices that started to drift early in the day rebounded by the close. Predictions that crude oil would test $30 in the New Year were met with skepticism a few months ago. Today, the expiring Feb. contract almost made it, reaching a high of $29.95 for February before closing at $29.66, up 12cts.

Gasoline prices moved 0.59cts higher to 77.33cts at the close for February, with March prices 0.05cts stronger at 76.69cts. Big spikes in the market today were attributed largely to bullish API/DOE distillate inventories and a run of bitter cold weather topped by today's big snowstorm in the Northeast.

- Mary Welge

======================================= End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 20, 2000.

Everybody here know that Sun announced that their cat has been messed up since Jan 7th? Keep wondering dude, you're clueless, might as well stay that way.

Laughing at Ray - If you don't think that oil/prod/rfng and mktg is KEY infrastructure you're soon to be known as Crying to Ray.

Some people are just wary of the current "non-Y2K" situation.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 20, 2000.

Don't be so hard on Just Wondering. I'm sure that in his most recent issue of TIME they quoted oil prices as being $25/bbl and he's simply sheepishly quoting his most recent progamming.

WW

-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), January 20, 2000.

http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/ap/20000119/bs/world_costlier_oil_2.html

Link

Prices turned lower later in the day for North Sea Brent oil but continued a rally for the U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude.

The rebound in oil reflects signs that OPEC is planning to extend production limits as well as a cold snap in the northeastern United States that stoked demand for heating oil and natural gas. Industry analysts said that even though crude oil prices have more than doubled in the past year, countries dependent on imported oil should be able to avoid severe economic pain, barring another big and sustained spike in prices.

Before the late retreat, crude contracts in London reached their highest price since Jan. 16, 1991, on the eve of the air and missile offensive launched against Iraq by U.S.-led forces in the Gulf.

-- (news@of.note), January 20, 2000.

I can't comment on the price of crude, but the price of gasoline in my area has gone up about 35 cents in the last couple weeks.

Gene

-- gene (ekbaker@essex1.com), January 20, 2000.

Thanks to Ray, Andy , RC and the rest that had done research on Oil. I bought options on Feb crude back before Christmas at $20.55. I currently hold options on 12 contracts. They roll next week so I will exercise all options, sell 5 and post the rest. To protect myself, I will also buy puts to offset just in case. I just hope the money is there when I decide to cash these babies in. Why the ramble? BECAUSE! If people had not been rattling the oil cage, I wouldn't hae watched it as closely and I probably would have missed the first 50% of the current rise. I usually trade in coffee, silver and cattle.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), January 20, 2000.

Hi Lobo,

let us know how you do!!!

as for verification, check out this table of incidents...

http://nckodokan.com/charts/crude.html

thanks to Marcia at GE

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 21, 2000.