http://www.pacificnews.org/jinn/stories/3.05/970305-india-power.html

South Asian Superpower Running Out of Power

By Andrew Robinson

Date: 03-05-97

(Excerpts but this is most of the article; and NO Carl, the stuff I left out doesn't say "But Y2k is expected to be the biggest threat to to Indian Power."...in fact, Y2k isn't mentioned :-) You doomers will enjoy the part about the riots due to a three-week outage. )

You might think this country of 900 million was truly on the brink of the Information Age. But without a special back-up generator, there might be no CyberCity exhibition at all. Because India, which Bill Gates calls the next "Software Superpower," is running short of the one thing that makes electronic data communications possible -- electricity.

Power outages have long been a fact of life in India, and candles, re-chargeable lamps, power converters and generators are as much a part of urban Indian homes as the vacuum cleaner in the U.S.

The real cause for alarm is that in this "developing" country, supposedly rising from Third World mendicancy into the more respectable realm of free market consumership, the power situation is getting worse. "It is a great achievement that since independence our power generation has risen from 1,700 megawatts to over 80,000 megawatts," says V. Gopalacharienu Gopalachari, India's Minister of Power. "But we didn't expect such an increase in demand -- we were focusing all our energies on generation, not consumption and distribution. That is why the power situation in the country has been getting worse day by day."

Here in Delhi, summer has not yet started, the ceiling fans, air conditioners, even many refrigerators are in deep hibernation, and still the city is drawing far more electricity than it can afford. Six-hour cuts are an everyday occurrence in this megalopolis of 11 million, and the Central Electricity Authority threatens to cut the power supply indefinitely if Delhi does not pay its electricity dues soon [see sidebar].

But the problem is hardly confined to Delhi. "It's funny that people complain about the situation in Delhi," says Alok Brara, editor-in-chief of PowerLine magazine, an industry trade publication. "Most people in India would be happy with 16 hours of electricity per day. There are many towns that get one or two hours a day -- sometimes they don't get power for weeks."

Even in Bangalore, the "Silicon Valley of South Asia," power outages last eight to ten hours per day. Last April, industrial consumers in the Ernakulam district of Kerala, India's most socially and economically prosperous state, were without electricity for nearly three weeks. As a result, many industries were forced to lay off workers, riots broke out and people threatened to burn substations. Electricity cuts have sparked violent outbursts in small towns throughout the country.

Experts explain the crisis in a variety of ways -- government mismanagement, corruption, politicized distribution of state-controlled power, excessive subsidies for farmers, reluctance to privatize, an unworkable billing system.

And theft. "I wanted to pay for my electricity connection," says Harbans Singh, who owns a shop in Delhi's crowded Sadar Bazaar market. Like many shop owners, Singh (not his real name) draws power through a wire illegally connected to a nearby electric pole. "But after I sent in the application and paid the initial fee, the electricity people demanded bribes before they would install the connection. It was cheaper and easier for me to connect illegally and pay off the police."

SIDEBAR-- 395 WORDS INDIA'S BEARABLE DARKNESS OF BEING

(Excerpts)

The Minister of Power blames shortages on the power boards. "We have 18 or 19 different boards operating on the state level. Each board is controlled by the political party that controls the state, not by the center. This allows political favors and economically unsound subsidies, regardless of capacity."

"The state electricity boards are in such bad shape, the entire infrastructure so unable to cope with demand, that foreign investment is clearly the only way out," says Brara. "But there's also no question that these foreign investors are less interested in making sure the majority of Indian's have access to electricity than in turning a profit."

If Brara is right, it may be quite some time before power cuts in India actually become socially agreed-upon irritants, more than just a way of life, or the privilege of those who have power in the first place.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 06, 2000

Answers

What's up with the March 1997 date? Could this be an old story? Or is that the point?

-- Lisa (lisadawn@yahoo.com), January 06, 2000.

John Why don't you go post someplace people will respect your opinion.....like the Simpsons channel or Disney or Roswell. Give us a break and get lost.....................We hear enough polly-lying faced crap from the dark side (govt) beat-it

-- gomer (yournidiot@dot.com), January 06, 2000.

Lisa,

The date is correct..it's 1997.

Oh, a certain someone (who apparently doesn't like me very much :-), if you read down the board, has been repeatedly posting articles he's finding about power shortages, outages, and an electrical fire that killed 10 people in India, since 1/1/99.

He's overtly started claiming the fire as "Y2K" deaths even though no where in the source he used is Y2K mentioned. And sidebars to the article noted over 500 electrical fires a month for several months just in the City of Delhi...WELL before Y2k...1997, 1998 etc.

He's exceedingly proud of himself for finding all the outage info (oooh, what an obscure source, the Times of India website) and it's clearly a desperate attempt to find widespread power outages SOMEWHERE to fulfill doomer scenarios.

The problem is, he knew exceedingly little about India, particularly the fact that they simply don't have enough power in the first place and their system has ALWAYS been a disaster.

The kinds of things he's posting would be HUGE deals in the US or Western Europe, but they're par for the course in India.

Simply trying to beat down Y2K hype with the truth in a variety of areas.

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 06, 2000.

If you're simply trying to beat down the Y2K hype with truth then how about posting something of recent vintage--like the laast six days. How about posting something historical which matches the nuke and refinery shutdowns of recent days. That would be instructive. Go to the library or the net and find a six day period that matches this one in hot shutdowns, refineries off line and big time software screwups.

-- Blew5M (gaf@mindspring.com), January 06, 2000.

Some more tidbits about electrical fires in India (Carl's Holy Grail of Y2K death):

http://www.tribuneindia.com/99jan24/mailbag.htm

(24 Jan. 1999 Letter to the Editor)

Electrical fires

It is amazing that we accept fires caused by electrical short circuits or breakdown of insulation at joints as a fait accompli. It is even more shocking that in spite of the Army having adequate strength of electrical engineers, they are not able to arrange periodical inspections of the electrical installations, especially where the buildings are inherently fire hazards  like the beautiful wooden hospital that was recently gutted in Shimla. Again, what is the function of the state governments Directorate of Electrical Inspection, on which the government spends lakhs of rupees annually? When will we adopt preventive maintenance measures in our country?

SUJOY NATH RAY Chandigarh

http://www.chowk.com/CivicCenter/adev_dec0298.html

- The other day there was a power surge in a part of the city. Any sensitive electrical gadgets that were plugged into the mains was blown up; TVs, refrigerators, CD players, light globesthe works. The electricity department puts out a statement-requesting residents to unplug their electrical gadgets as power surges happen and there is nothing they can do about them. There we go again, the great Indian surrender to the escape of inevitability, fate, karma, destiny.whatever!

- When questioned about the power situation in the capital, the Union Minister for Power, says it is not his responsibility. I repeat the Union Minister for Power says he is not responsible for power

http://webpage.com/hindu/daily/980421/05/05212523.htm

The Hindu

Tuesday, April 21, 1998

There is the question of power. ``Infrastructure'', says the new BJP- led Government, will be given top priority in investment. Hopefully, this will include power for rural areas. Probably nowhere in the world, people trying to do business (and these poor farmers are entrepreneurs as much as and actually more than any of the Bombay Club) face such problems of electricity supply as in rural India. Even in the cities there are power surges.

It is infinitely worse in the villages, where even on non-load shedding days lights regularly go dim and flicker in the mornings and evenings, or there are inexplicable and recurring power failures, or - worst of all - power surges quite often burn out the engines the farmers have invested in. The only reported suicide in Maharashtra by Tulshriram Bhaskar Patil of Osmanabad district occurred because his pump had burnt down twice. But almost everywhere the crisis of power supply is a leading factor causing despair and anger among the farmers. With all the propaganda against farmers getting free or nearly-free electricity, most of them who discuss this issue will say - ``we are ready to pay for it, if we could only get reliable power.''

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 06, 2000.

Blew,

Just did...see

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002FUU

More reactor shutdowns in the US between 1/1-1/6 1999 than 1/1 2000.

Refinery stuff is next on my list..a harder research task since refinery problems are far less public or organized in central locations than nuke stuff.

BOY I'd kill for LEXIS/NEXIS access right now :-)

But, to recap, I've

1) Shown that there are not more sewer leaks than normal

2) Indian power shortages and electrical fires are routine

3) Shown that major ATC outages are routine

4) There are not more reactor shutdowns than normal in the US and almost certainly not for the world as a whole, either.

I think I might have missed something I've covered......

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 06, 2000.

Hey John, get a life.

Loser.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 06, 2000.

Confusing the issues is not John's point. If he does so, he is doing so unintentionally. He is merely seeking to repeated point, for all who might come to this board, that accidents happen all the time.

John just wants us, and the rest of the American public to realize that nothing unusual is happening. And that we can relax-- especially those of us who are mainstream and feeling a bit nervous right now.

John: Really. I've personally seen quite a number of computer failures and problems in my own neighborhood [and one power outage]. So have many others. Why do you persue your mission with such vigour? How can you be so sure that none of these events, are not in any way part of a systematic problem? Do you not believe that systematic problems can arise? If this is not an example of a systematic problem [about which the government and most experts told us probably *would* be a problem to *some* degree], then what is?

Now I don't mean to be inflammitory here. We all have a vested interest in continuing the confidence of the American public in *all* of our financial institutions. But don't we all have an even bigger interest in the trust in which the American people vest in their leadership and in each other [society, that is]?

Civil anarchy doesn't arise because a market collapses. Or even over larger, more turbulent financial instability. Civil anarchy occurs when people no longer see society as having authority -- which is in essence the power to protect. If people feel betrayed and misled by the larger society in which they live, or by certain segments of it, there will be a developing tendency to 'strick out on one's own' or to seek alternative societies or authorities. Or do you disagree?

I say this here, to you, because society is not 'out there'. You, John, and I, right here, are society. If your mission is to enlighten and strengthen the honesty, integrity and trust that holds us all together, then please have a sincere and honest conversation with me over the discrepancies in the various perspectives on this board.

But if you come here for some other reason, why not explain just what that is? Let's start building some trust, based on civil, peaceful, goodwill discourse. Surely it is in your interest to gain the *trust* of many who will read what you say as merely having an agenda. So take my offer and reveal more of your human and humane side, John.

I'm looking forward to hearing from you. Perhaps you'll want to start a thread on this?

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 06, 2000.

You can't offer up ideas if you can't be credible. The title of your post has nothing to do with its contents. I lose respect real fast for people who do this. From now on, I will skip posts that you initiate.

-- Mello1 (Mello1@ix.netcom.com), January 06, 2000.

Also, John:

Reuters reported that 3 US nuclear plants went offline on the 31st of Dec 99. That, plus the two you mention makes 5. Five reported. There is at least the small appearance of a preemptive action in this.

You cite a [current?] NRC report in confirmation of your figures. Just to be on the safe side, can you supply media confirmation that those shutdowns occured in Jan 99? Preferably ones backed up by print from the period in question? I know this is a lot to ask, but the entire issue here is about trust, not winning an arguement. Win our trust, John. That is how you'll win the public.

-- tim phronesia (phronesia@webtv.net), January 06, 2000.

Hi John, If you don't enjoy this site, why are you still here?

-- (dorado@doco.com), January 06, 2000.

On the subject of nukes. I worked as a control systems tech and and an operator for 19 years. now I work on control systems for mfg as a consultant.

John is right- and he's wrong. it's not unusual for 5 plants to be down this close together for a PLANNED outage. It's NOT normal to have 3 plants, much less 5 go down in one week due to "problems".

-- Sam (swalker2000@earthlink.net), January 06, 2000.

heh, I read an article couple days back from mid-East, the Islamic Republic news link on Dredge. This country gave the same identical exact-a-mundo reason for same problem...hmmm..

-- Hokie (Hokie_@hotmail.com), January 06, 2000.

Tim,

I'm looking directly at comprehensive NRC event reports:

http://www.nrc.gov/NRR/DAILY/drlist.htm

....ANYTHING having to do with anything radioactive is in them. A hospital gives the wrong dose of a radioactive substance to a patient...a full report.

A single phone in a power plant is found to be inoperative....gets a report.

What I'm listing are all unplanned automatic or manual shutdowns..none of these were scheduled...

Ok..well, if one goes back to 12/30, then you get 5 shutdowns from 12/30 to 1/06.

Two of these occured on 12/30: Vogtle Unit 2 and Catawba Unit 2

One occured on 12/31: Limerick Unit 2

Then we have Oconee Unit 2 On 1/3, and Duane Arnold Unit 1 on 1/5.

If it IS Y2K it seems a bit odd that most of the shutdowns are before Y2K local time and ALSO before Y2K GMT, don't you think?

And reviewing 1998/99....12/30-1/6..

We have Oconee 2 going down on 12/31 (hmm, repeat performance this year :-)

Comanche Peak Unit 2 in Texas went down on 1/3...

Prairie Island 1 went down on 1/5/99

And there's a rather odd event on 1/5/99 at Point Beach 1..that was a situation where it was ordered to shut down because of a problem but the utility asked for a waiver and solved the problem with just a reduction of power, but without shutting it off. Due to the header I had listed it as a shutdown earlier...my apologies.

Certainly a major glitch. :-)

So, post local and GMT Y2K, this year, we've had the same number of shutdowns as last year.

The only thing a bit odd is 3 shutdowns in two days. I'm sure that if I looked through EVERYTHING I could find 2 shutdowns in one day and 3 over two days on previous days.

And again, if it's Y2K, why were the shutdowns worse before the date?

And of those pre-Y2K ones, one was identified as two wires shorting, the other as the insulation on a transformer failing. How the heck could those be Y2K?

-- John H Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 06, 2000.