With someone throwing predictions in into the face of the forum today, suggesting that everyone not believing in the BITR scenario collectively ascribes to each, I thought Id bring out the two articles that changed the way I think about Y2K. They are from the San Jose Mercury News and the Washington Post (which I could not load today).

Each article talks about possible disruptions overseas and the economic effect on the US. This doesnt portend TEOTWAWKI or Marshall Dillon Law. It does suggest that there is a considerable risk of a short to intermediate term shock to the manufacturing base of the World and ultimately the United States. Since Im truly an optimist at heart, the US and the World will IMHO overcome these troubles in due time and return to prosperity (at least the US).

The spinmiesters and their apologists don't discuss these issues because it is not as safe to categorically dismiss as "planes falling from the sky". The CEO of Sun Micro, quoted in the article, is not someone they can lampoon as a gun loving, federal reserve hating, camo wearing survivalist kook.

"Y2K bug in Asia poses risks for U.S. firms"

http://www.mercurycenter.com/business/top/073393.htm

"State Department Official Warns of Disruptions in World Trade in 2000"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/business/longterm/y2k/y2k.htm

-- gary (a@a.com), December 30, 1999