I plan on being up before 1300Z on December 31. That's when New Zealand rolls over and 10 hours before Moscow rolls over. What will happen in Russia if New Zealand goes dark at rollover?! Could Russia be tempted to launch their nukes before they too hit rollover?

A strategic nuclear problem that not too many non-Russians have considered is precisely this: If massive disruptions occur at rollover, Russia's window of nuclear opportunity will end eight hours before the rollover in the U.S., which will have an eight-hour window without Mutually Assured Destruction to nuke strategic Russian and Chinese targets. Since the Reds know this, what is the likelihood that chaos in New Zealand will trigger a preemptive strike?

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), December 29, 1999

Answers

I just read that US nuclear forces are timed by Greenwich time. I'm kind of slow and trying to figure out exactly what that would imply in regard to timing. Apparently their "new year" will start ahead of the continental US?

-- Annie (nanc@fiberia.com), December 29, 1999.

That depends of whether you habitually see the glass as half full or half empty.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), December 29, 1999.

what scenarios do you anticipate?

-- Annie (nanc@fiberia.com), December 29, 1999.

I just read that US nuclear forces are timed by Greenwich time.

If that is true then with fifty years to consider the potential problem, isn't it likely that the Russians use the same standard? A three-hour window in a nuke war is quite enough. How difficult would it be to buy time by shifting timezones to the west?

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), December 29, 1999.

The n-warriors must know there are severe risks of accidental war. I can imagine no other reason that US would invite Russians to a joint monitoring command post.....Am trying to put the pieces together- Yeltsins drunken tirades and brandishing his arsenal at the US, Russia lowering threshold for use of nukes, US navy maneuvers, government officials monitoring y2K from a bunker ( did you ever hear of officials monitoring a snowstorm from a bunker??) Russian AND Us paranoia....will they want to launch first or will we, or will cooler heads prevail?

-- Annie (stillhere@the bunker.com), December 29, 1999.

Annie -

I am hoping for cooler heads to prevail. I believe that is why most of the Navy's ships are in port for the rollover. A 'stand down' if you will to reduce tensions.

That being said, however, I believe that it wouldn't take much to push us over the brink. A terrorist nuke, either in the US or in Russia, could have dire consequenses.

Come January 3, 2000, I am going to breathe a giant sigh of relief, if for no other reason than mankind made it that far. A Second Great Depression is just a BITR compared to nuclear war.

-- Stars and Stripes (stars_n_stripes@my-deja.com), December 29, 1999.

Russia is a real threat... but not by accident.

Russia has thought that through a thousand times... the "use em or lose em on Y2K" theory has little to do with it...

Prime times for surprise nuclear attack any time during the year (this is not Y2K doomer crap) is between 6:00PM - 9:00PM PST or 12:01AM to 2:00AM PST

Noswad

-- Noswad (keepAnEye@Russia.com), December 29, 1999.