From http://www.usagold.com/cpmforum/

YGM (12/16/99; 0:12:46MDT - Msg ID:21129) Y2K Newswire....... Early Edition ....Thanks Craig.... this will be on the public site on Friday: "" Remember the Jim Lord Navy documents that revealed 44 major U.S. cities were classified as "likely to fail" in various categories? Well, the official answer to that was that the U.S. Navy didn't have the information on these utilities, so they marked a "3" by default. (The "3" meant "likely to fail.")

The documents we have today show that Washington's explanation is a bunch of bunk. As you can see by downloading the documents yourself, most utilities had replied to the Navy well before the June, 1999 report. The Navy did, indeed, have the information from these utilities. ( the xls files show most utilities reporting and the dates. )

Of course, this is not meant to blame the Navy at all. We think the Navy wants to tell the truth. It's Washington that's trying to spin everything here, and they'll be spinning this document, too.

Here's something else: one page in the new documents lists 77 public utilities (water, gas, electricity, sewer). NINE of these 77 still have not replied to the Navy about their state of Y2K compliance. These nine are ALL water and sewage organizations. This means at least nine major U.S. water and sewage treatment facilities are still keeping their mouth shut, not even bothering to reply to the U.S. Navy to claim they are ready for Y2K. It's safe to assume that these nine are in terrible Y2K shape.

Here's another thing: Only FIVE of the utilities had completed 3rd party audits. That's right: 94% of the surveyed utilities have not completed 3rd-party audits. Or, put another way, 94% of these utilities are giving you either self-reported information or no information.

So let's break this down: 94% of the utilities have not completed 3rd party audits. 12% (9 of 77) have offered no reply whatsoever. Only 6% have completed actual audits.

The figures are slightly better on the second page from the U.S. Navy, but overall, this demonstrates that these utility companies are nowhere near "compliant," even today.

Here's something else to consider: the Navy did not survey every city in the United States. They surveyed only ones where Navy installations might be threatened by failures. Had the survey been conducted on every major U.S. city, we would see much higher total numbers: instead of nine utilities refusing to reply, for example, we might see twenty or thirty.

Nationwide, we're guessing that there are at least twenty utilities that simply won't be ready for Y2K in time. That potentially translates into major problems in more than a handful of U.S. cities. What happens if five major U.S. cities lose water all on the same day? That's the kind of scenario that now seems rather likely, and not at all far-fetched.

But even in a best-case scenario, we're predicting there will be at least one major U.S. city without water (or sewer) in January. The odds of every single non-audited, self-reporting utility working perfectly on January 1 are extraordinarily low. Those people who say nothing will happen on Y2K are playing some long, long odds. ""

-- Bruce (~@~.com), December 16, 1999

Answers

www.stuarthrodman.com/PENTAGON%202.htm

Master Utility List: An Interim Report

The issues, how we obtained this information, and what we got

By Stuart H. Rodman

Late last summer, reporter Jim Lord broke a story to the major media detailing a Navy study, known internally as the "Master Utility List". Mr. Lords report, revealed the existence of a matrix, maintained by the Navy, which examined the Y2K preparedness of 128 American cities. The contents of the matrix, known popularly as the "New Pentagon Papers", classified the status of essential infrastructure in a given municipality with respect to drinking water, sewerage, electric power, and gas.

Based on information posted in at least one report from the Navy website last summer, Mr. Lord classified 44 of the 128 cities examined by the Navy as being at greatest risk of experiencing "probable total failure" in at least one or more of the four essential services monitored. The cities cited included New York City, Baltimore, Hartford, Buffalo, and five cities in close proximity to San Diego, among dozens of others.

Although both the Navy and representatives from the White House quickly verified the authenticity of the study, officials downplayed Mr. Lords assertions that 26 million Americans were known to be at risk for experiencing a Y2K caused failure in their local utility services. It was explained that the dire projections referenced in the Navy matrix were made not as the conclusion of Navy analysts but instead because the data from the respective utility entities was not received in time for the posting. In such cases, strictly for planning purposes, the worst case scenario was assumed, and the respective utility was assigned the status of "total failure likely".

The Effort to Resolve the Controversy

The San Diego Y2K Citizen Action Group had special reasons to be anxious about the implications of the "Mater Utility List"; five municipalities said to be at greatest risk are within 70 miles of downtown San Diego. In an effort to get to the truth, the group decided to seek an audit of the Navy report and posted on their website an open letter to President Clinton and an online petition form to support their intentions. At the same time, for the purpose of obtaining an independent analysis of the true status of the reporting utilities, the group sought to use the Freedom of Information Act to gain release of the actual data gathered from the information providers in the 44 cities.

To the shock and horror of the groups President, Jim Bell of San Diego, the group was soon informed by the Navy that the data received was not releasable under the Freedom of Information Act, because of restrictions imposed by the newly enacted Year 2000 Information and Readiness Disclosure and Liability Act, Public Law 105-271. Bell stated,

"Although the Navy had demonstrated a clear willingness to work with us in this matter, they were actually prevented from doing so because the new law places information received by the government about Y2K readiness planning beyond public scrutiny."

Despite this setback, the Navy offered to remain helpful to the group and agreed to provide other important details which would shed light on key questions. In fact, personnel from the Navy Facilities Engineering Command in Washington D.C., generously provided assistance in addressing the contested issue of when they acquired the information used in the matrix, and also if the information supplied was known to have been audited by third parties.

The Data

The data obtained from the Navy was organized in spreadsheets with 10 separate columns each. The columns listed the name of each naval installation affected, the name of the utility provider, the type of utility service provided, the date of first contact, the date of first reply, the date that the reply was considered complete, whether or not a face to face audit was conducted, the date held if any, and whether the information was known to have been audited by any third parties.

This report is an effort to summarize the information obtained. The actual spreadsheets will be released within 48 hours. Much of the data appears consistent with statements made last summer by Navy officials that they had only inadequate information at best for the 44 cities cited by Jim Lord as being at the greatest risk. However, much does not.

Preliminary analysis produced this partial list of utilities, which provided complete information prior to June 1, 1999:

City of Bremerton

New Jersey Natural Gas

Middletown Sewerage

City of Quincy

Boston Gas

Kittery Water District

Providence Gas

Columbia Gas

Morehead City

City of Groton

United Illuminating

Eastern Utilities

Yankee Gas

Warminster Municipal

City of Great Falls

City of Oak Harbor

Port of Seattle

Port Hadlock

The above mentioned utilities were classified as Status 3, or "total failure is likely". According to the explanation offered by the Navy last summer in the wake of the Jim Lord revelations, utilities assigned this dire status were unaccounted for at the time the Navy matrix was posted last June. This data, obtained on December 15 under the Freedom of Information Act appears to contradict that claim.

We asked the Navy to explain the discrepant data. Commander Hank Chase, PE, CEC,USN Y2K Program Officer (Navy & Client Support), Naval Facilities Engineering Command explained,

"The Navy did receive data prior to June 1st in some instances, but that doesnt mean that we had completed our own internal evaluation of it in time for its inclusion in the matrix last summer."

The purpose of our inquiry is to determine the truth about the readiness claims of utilities upon whom we rely for the most essential of services-winter home heating, drinking water, sanitation, the electric power needed to sustain commerce and employment. Towards these ends, the Navy is merely the messenger and has assumed a proactive role in attempting to address the core issue, will utilities be ready for the Year 2000? In the case of many of the nearly 200 utilities reviewed in the new documents, little if any convincing evidence is offered to support their claims of Y2K readiness. The data obtained shows that much of the information was self reported and that in some instances, utilities still have not supplied any information at all!

More to come.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), December 16, 1999.

Most Y2K savvies knew the KoSkinEm / White House scramble to debunk Jim Lord and his findings was Mutilated Spin.

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 16, 1999.

If listening to lies was money, we would all be millionaires by now. Back when I was a kid, there used to be a word, "balderdash" which meant something was an outright foolish lie.

When Klinton announced the report handed to him that we are 99.99.99.00% ready, it was Balderdash.

You know it, I know it, he knew it, the ones that gave it to him knew it.

The only place that 99.9% comes into play is the sad fact that 99.9% is the percentage of the American people that believe this and are totally unprepared.

But then, we've got to remember men like Jim Lord, are money-grubing, religious fanatics who have just missed being locked up. Yeah sure.

Answer me this. Since the electricity is all on a grid, if 5, 10, 15 or 20 go all at once what happens to all the others?

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), December 16, 1999.

Answer me this. Since the electricity is all on a grid, if 5, 10, 15 or 20 go all at once what happens to all the others?

As Gary North said, the problem is systemic. If a few go down, they're going to take the rest down with them.

-- (brett@miklos.org), December 16, 1999.