Just got this cute little glossy brochure in with my December natural gas bill.......

The front page says "Disruption of your natural gas supply is rare.........."

Turn over the page and it says it big letters "but it can happen."

It goes on to describe how to prepare (extra clothing, blankets, supply of fresh water, food, flashlight, candles, battery operated radio).

Then all the good stuff telling us to protect our plumbing, other sources of heat etc. etc.

After all this information you turn to the back cover and the heading says "Y2K" in bold letters.......a bit of self promotion about how they work hard and are on call 24 hours a day, how they are standing by to make it right if something interrupts the service, their computers have been tested, they are on schedule(huh!) for Y2K.....

Then at the end it says "You should always be prepared for an emergency regardless of the cause.........."

The way I read it they don't really expect too much trouble however it is their CYA (Cover Your Ass) brochure so they can say "We told you so" if anything goes wrong.

It is rather amusing that they don't mention Y2K until the last of eight pages,however coming in December 1999 when I don't remember them ever sending out something like this before makes it quite clear that Y2K is the reason for the brochure.

The bottom line where we live is that it can be extremely cold in early January......Minus 30 or colder is quite common and we like to use the expression "It gets cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey". If the gas and/or electricity isn't working, even for as little as a day or less, then all hell breaks loose here.....

The brochures suggestion to "close blinds or drapes and avoid opening doors to keep heat from escaping" is rather limp.....in temperatures that cold the bottom line is everyone would be in shelters within a day or so anyway.

I believe remediation efforts have been very strong and thus a small likelihood of anything happening.....however in the event of problems there really is very little that the average home owner can do other than to prepare themselves for a few days in this type of climate.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 10, 1999

Answers

Don't know way I'm responding, but...... Link for IV&V for an natural gas company, pipeline co. regarding the very strong remediation comment?

LOL. Here in MI I'll just shut my drapes and close doors and I'll be warm when it's below zero. Problem solved. Don't need the woodburner.

Common sense and critical thinking skills are also as rare as natural gas not getting to your home, Craig. Very rare. As rare as Y2K...

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 10, 1999.

The company is Atco Gas, PJC. I received the same brochure yesterday, and Craig did a very accurate job of describing it, right down to the "this is a first." Their "We're on schedule for Y2K" caught my eye, too...the direct implication is that they're not remediated!

The brochure is complete with diagrams and labeled photographs of how to reset your regulator!

The brochure contains this quote: "When you celebrate January 1, 2000, we'll be hard at work, continuing to give you our very best." This from the same company whose employee told me in the spring: "None of us will be allowed to take vacation during rollover. Don't know what good that will do if anything goes wrong, anyway--there are only 40 of us." Forty, to continue to give us their very best, in a city of close to a million!

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.

Craig

Ah the reality sets in :o) I hope you are right that this is only a CYA and not an alert for a real problem. After living in the NWT for 5 years and having lots of realtime experiance living in the cold (sometimes with just wood heat, damm cold to light fire *VBG*) the options are limited.

But there are options. Propane for one could be used as an alternative heat source. I would plan to have a room as a "warm room". Make sure it is on the sunny side of the house, in case of disruption clear everything out of the room and put mattresses on the floor. If one could have a line coming in from a propane tank outside to a small propane stove one could heat a room. Make sure there is nothing flamible and put a barrier around the heat source. Never have fuel inside a home, the risk is to great.

If one thinks small, it is easy to heat a small area rather than a large one. Prep the house so that water is drained from your tanks, lines, and let it freeze. Just live in the small room, sleep in a dome tent at night. One of the neatest tricks is to remember that heat rises and keep water in a upper shelf in the room. That way it may not freeze.

Actually we don't even need much heat to survive in the cold. Not that it is comfortable, but it can be done. The most important thing to remember about the cold is to keep your liners dry. That is how you will feel the cold is because of the moisture on the skin. Synthetic clothes can help if they are by your skin. I would recommend a skidoo suit as a outer covering or even overalls to keep in body heat. A good snow suit can make a big differance in your comfort level

If a person has an RV or a trailer that would be a good "bug out" shack if need be. Or anyplace where a woodstove could be placed that is not a security risk.

For more information here is the link to

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 CMHC- SCHL: Be Ready for Y2K

Personally this is to little to late. If there is a power, gas disruptions most folks are going to have no clue inregards to surviving in Cold Temps.

This to me is a shame. There are no documents on the net that discribe how to survive in the coldest temps. I had hoped that the Quebec Ice Storm would have been a wake up call but maybe it wasn't.

Also here is a something that I wrote up after the Ice Storm reflecting my experiances in dealling with the cold. It is old and not my recommendations of how anyone should survive but it is a glimpse into a lifestyle that few have had the pleasure to live

 Chop wood haul water

And always remember to keep your liners dry folks.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 10, 1999.

Actually, they should have said, "So far, disruption of your natural gas supplies have been infrequent......

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 10, 1999.

< -- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca) >>

---

The natural gas communities have been really "orphaned" as far as the y2k attention span of the federal government and national media have gone: far, far less words (by any measure) than on telephone, power, or the banks: but they are equally susceptible.

I agree with you, if most have remediated and surveyed as well as those did who spent the money and contracted with EPRI, and thoroughly tested, then interuptions will far fewer. But I suspect that with little attention - and for example, the pipeline industry has been almost totally silent on preparations or articles about the treat, comes little effort to do an expensive repair job.

Natural gas deregulation has created extraordinary pressures and changes and new compaies and rates and purchase plans that are causing millions of account disruptions and charge/back-charges and billing errors. This when in 1999 when there are no outside problems to disrupt things!

It's NOT a good time to be in the industry.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 10, 1999.

Cleanup

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 10, 1999.

386's - Hmmmn.

And there are a few millions of other such "old" PC's out there - just waiting to break down.

Not all will. But how many?

---

If you can ask him again - ask him what would have happened if he had NOT remediated his system: we know he found problems, that's a given from the way he responded. No company in the world, who has investigated the problem, has found they were wasting time, money, or effort. Every company has needed to repair problems.

We just don't know what might have happened if they had not repaired the system.

From that, it's possible to guess what might happen when problems - in other places - are skipped, missed, forgotten, not done, or done improperly.

---

Every other technical user I've asked has said "shut down" "complete breakdown", "catastrophy", or "you really don't want to know." A few then added, after it's down, we might have fixed it, but none seemed real enthusiastic about trying.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 10, 1999.

This is an older article but gives a good indication of the scope of Natural Gas risks

 Natural Gas: A Vital But Noncompliant Industry

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 10, 1999.

Yeah......I think the suggestion of propane is really the only viable heating alternative if one doesn't have a wood stove......and ensuring you have good ventilation! As I've said to people in the utilities business in our area in the past, they certainly better be as ready as they are telling everyone or else all hell will break loose......you don't have many hours before homes become unlivable without a heat source in minus 30 weather.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 10, 1999.

Craig

I just hope you Albertans are golfing on New Years Day again like I heard last year.

My sister is in Edmonchuck so this is of particular interest to me. Mind you she is staying at a Hotel for the rollover and besides that lived in the Yukon and NWT and has all the Arctic gear. Stillllll she has kids.

Propane is a very versitile and relitively cheap insurance to have incase of utility failure mind you I will be sticking to my airtight :o)

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 10, 1999.

South of Edmonton here, in the coldest place in Central Alberta! We have a kero stove to keep the basement warm enough so the pipes don't freeze, and in a small building with a woodburner and water supply. We will crack a window for kero fumes and have a battery operated CO detector.

A friend's son works for City of Calgary - liaison with Atco and Transalta Utilities - and he says the big problem they are worried about with the electric supply is that everyone will turn off their power before midnight, causing inbalances in the system. His mother says she is not risking her new appliances even with a whole-house surge protector and will turn everything off, hang the potential damage. With everyone wanting to see how the other part of the world is doing and calling after midnight, I think the phone system will crash before the power.

My daughter got her last bill for a month's electricity from Transalta and it was for $4552.00 - should have been about $40...."but no, it was not a Y2k billing problem" she was told. Even if it wasn't, little things like that compound any rollover problems. Like you say, it's a bit too little, too late.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), December 10, 1999.

Brian

The last two winters in Calgary have been mild. Would we be pushing our luck to ask for a third winter of the same? :) And, without meaning to pry too much, is your sister moving to a hotel in the same area, or elsewhere? If in the same area, why the hotel?

Laurane

Good luck with the heating arrangements.

Your contact's comment of concern about "loss of load" is the same one I heard from a TransAlta spokesperson long ago. Perhaps they could have been a bit more public with their concerns and with a few more "do's and don't's."

As for the telephones, I don't think they'll go down after midnight here--they'll be more likely to crater in our early morning as everyone gets online to learn what is happening in the earlier parts of the world.

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), December 10, 1999.

Laurane

I think the big worries would be the industrial shutdowns. One ould think that they should be coordinated with the utilities if there is a problem. Not much talk about that though in the power industry

Rachel

No she lives in Sherwood Park and the Hotel is down town. If I remember right it is part of a "family night" and that is her main focus :o) She kind of glosses over Y2K if I talk about it but she knows there could be problems.

As far as the weather situation goes the weather dudes figure the same pattern will develope for this year as La Nina is influencing the systems. On the Coast this is true, very wet and mild. Mind you that is the normal situation here. I would never trust the weather in the praries as you have direct influences from both the Arctic and the Pacific. Last thing you need is to have an Arctic front coming down around the rollover. Yuck!

-- Brian (imager@home.com), December 10, 1999.