Who knows?

Diane

Y2K in Asia's nuclear neighbors _ where uncertainty and uncooperation reign
ASHOK SHARMA, Associated Press Writer
Saturday, December 4, 1999

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/news/archive/1999/12/04/international0110EST0428.DTL

[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]

(12-04) 01:10 EST NEW DELHI, India (AP) -- Early this year, when relations were on an upswing, the leaders of India and Pakistan pledged to cooperate on sharing technology and reducing the risk of accidental nuclear war.

Three months later, the two countries were engaged in their worst fighting in almost three decades and were on the brink of their fourth full-scale war since both won independence from Britain in 1947.

Among the casualties of that episode was a plan for Indian experts to visit Pakistan to work on technical problems, possibly including cooperation on the unpredictable Y2K computer glitch.

``The visit didn't take place,'' said G. Parthasarthy, India's ambassador to Pakistan.

Nineteen months after both countries proved they were ready to produce nuclear arsenals, there is concern that still-developing controls on their nuclear devices could be disrupted come the New Year, when digital clocks on untreated computers turn from 99 to 00.

In India, no one seems overly concerned.

``I don't think that the two sides have reached such sophistication that Y2K should be a major problem,'' K. Subrahmanyam, a member of India's National Security Council, told The Associated Press.

In Pakistan, although scientists at the Atomic Energy Commission say their nuclear facilities are now Y2K compliant, there is uncertainty about India.

``We just don't know what our neighbor has done to handle this problem,'' one scientist told the AP, speaking on condition he not be identified.

An Indian nuclear expert, Brahama Chellany, said he believed the danger of the Y2K bug causing either country to fire a missile accidentally is ``absolutely nonexistent'' because neither possesses a system in which a missile is automatically fired after detecting a launch by an adversary.

``The missiles are absolutely safe and secure,'' said Chellany, of the independent New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research. ``To fire them, you have to first load the fuel, activate various systems and then fire them.''

Pakistan's military, which seized power in an Oct. 12 coup, is not disclosing any information on its millennium bug readiness, says that country's Y2K coordinator, Ijaz Khawaja, beyond assuring him it is compliant.

In India, the government's Y2K Action Force says the defense sector has done ``impact analysis'' on most systems and that rectification and testing was done ``wherever necessary.''

The task force says 11 critical sectors in India -- including banking, telecommunications, railroads, the space program, petroleum and civil aviation -- have achieved complete readiness. However, sectors including water supply, sewage and health, continue to be of concern.

``The critical thing for water supply and sewage is power,'' said the task force's chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia. ``And we are pretty assured that on the power side we won't have problems.''

Some foreign governments and independent analysts, however, are not so sure of India's readiness.

``The situation was quite bad six months ago, especially in the power sector,'' said Dewand Mehta, director of the National Association of Software and Service Companies. ``Things have considerably improved in most of the 11 core sectors.''

Mehta said, however, that ``because of the late start, the testing process is yet to be completed.''

International Y2K experts have expressed concerns about the level of preparation of India's air traffic control systems, and many airlines have decided to cancel flights over the region during the crucial New Year's rollover period.

H.L. Khola, director-general of civil aviation, said the International Civil Aviation Organization, a U.N. body, tested Y2K compliance at New Delhi airport and will submit a report on Dec. 15 after testing facilities at the three other major airports.

As a contingency measure during the rollover period, all international flights will fly above 27,000 feet, domestic flights below that height. The longitudinal separation between any two planes also will be increased from 10 to 15 minutes, and all planes will carry extra fuel.

Under normal circumstances, some 1,200 aircraft operate in Indian airspace daily, half of them landing or taking off from its airports.

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), December 06, 1999