This just in from: http://www.dxlc.com/solar/

I have been watching this site off and on for a while now, and have not seen a forecast of "active to major storm conditions." I don't know what the levels above "major storm conditions" are, but have a feeling we might find out soon. I think X class flares are the most severe, and we just had one, an X1.4/2B. Most of this is greek to me, and if anyone can further explain it, this would mucho appreciated.

Recent development The geomagnetic field was quiet on November 26. Solar wind speed ranged between 369 and 479 km/sec.

Solar flare activity was high. Solar flux was 169.0, the planetary A index was 3 (3-hour Kp indices: 0011 1211, Boulder K indices: 0010 1211). Region 8771 was mostly unchanged and continued its high frequency flare activity. Further major flares are possible as the region rotates over the west limb today and early tomorrow. Region 8772 was quiet and stable. Region 8773 has become more unstable and could produce occasional C flares. Region 8774 was quiet and stable, the region appears to be spotless early on Nov. 28. Region 8776 was quiet and stable. Region 8778 developed slowly and is capable of minor M class flaring. Region 8779 was quiet and stable. Region 8780 reemerged with a single spot, however, the region appears to have become spotless again. Region 8781 developed slowly and could soon become capable of minor M class flaring. New region 8782 emerged in the northeast quadrant near the central meridian.

Comment added at 06:32 UTC on November 28: Region 8771 has produced 2 M flares today, the first an M3.5 event at 01:46 UTC, the second an M1.2 event at 05:57 UTC. The region is very hot and could easily produce a major flare today. The interplanetary magnetic field has swung moderately strongly southwards over the last couple of hours. This could cause the geomagnetic field to become unsettled to active.

Comment added at 10:37 UTC: Region 8781 is developing quickly today and has almost tripled its spot count since yesterday. ACE EPAM data indicate that a CME is approaching Earth. Perhaps the CME observed on Nov.26 will arrive after noon today?

Flares and CMEs 10 C flares, 2 M flares and 1 X flare were recorded on November 27. Region 8771 produced 4 C flares, 2 M flares (an M2.8/1N event at 03:01 UTC and an M1.2/1N event at 05:48 UTC) and 1 X flare (an X1.4/2B major flare at 12:12 UTC). None of the events appear to have been associated with significant CMEs. Region 8778 was the source of 2 C flares, a C5.6/1N event at 04:57 UTC and a long duration C9.9/1N event peaking at 05:08 UTC. The latter event may have been associated with a CME, however, as online LASCO images have been unavailable since the evening of Nov.26, this possibility is uncertain.

November 26: Region 8778 was the source of 3 C flares, one of which was interesting. A C3.9 flare at 07:05 UTC was accompanied by a moderately strong type II sweep. A coronal mass ejection and a Moreton wave was observed in association with the flare. As this event occurred while the region was near the central meridian, there is a high probability of a CME impact at Earth sometime between late on November 28 and noon on November 29.

The background x-ray flux is at the class B9 level.

Coronal holes A well defined coronal hole in the northern hemisphere was at the central meridian on November 27, however, it may be located too far to the north to be geoeffective. A coronal hole in the southern hemisphere will rotate into a geoeffective position December 2-4.

Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on November 28. On November 29 a CME could impact Earth and cause active to major storm conditions. On November 30 a coronal stream could reach Earth and cause unsettled to active conditions. Low frequency (below 2 MHz) radio wave propagation along east-west paths over high and upper middle latitudes is generally fair.

-- sunny (bill@tinfoil.com), November 28, 1999

Answers

NASA Space Weather Bureau

Today's Forecast
Courtesy NOAA. Updated
1999 Nov 28 1203 UT

24-hour Forecast
Solar activity will be
moderate to high.
Geophysical activity will be
quiet.

Current Conditions
Solar activity is moderate.
Geophysical activity is
quiet to unsettled.

Daily Solar Flare Probabilities
1999 Nov 27 2210 UT
............24 hr.......48 hr
CLASS M.....55%.........40%
CLASS X.....01%.........01%

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), November 28, 1999.

cool, I havn't had the chance to say this in about a week...
* Y2K is Real
* Y2K is a sub-set of the Millenium Problem
The email is real, if you would like the URL for my Earth Changes page.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), November 28, 1999.