Brian and Z -

Was just reading your exchange on BC Hyro on the Y2K Pro deleted thread.

Brian - Does BC Hydro produce all the power it sells? Where did the figure of 7% sold to the US come from? Where does it go - just to Washington/Idaho or is some sent all the way to California?

According to my neighbor who is a supervisor for Puget Sound Energy (formerly Puget Power), PSE only produces 32% of their own power. The rest is bought from BPA and "other sources" (BC Hydro?). Said neighbor thinks they have done a "reasonable" job of remediation, but he is prepared for 2 months. Do you think there is a reasonable chance of power staying up in Western Washington? If not, my guess is that 32% will go to powering emergency services - fire, hospitals and the like and it won't be out here in the country - it will be to keep downtown Seattle from "blowing" IMHO.

Also, does anyone know if we have power do to extensive hydro power plants in this part of the country, can the power be "rerouted" to say Chicago or other colder parts of the country to keep people from freezing to death or are there limits to where they can send power distance wise?

Thanks all.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.xnet), November 27, 1999

Answers

Valkyrie:

You have asked the million dollar [5 million Canadian; ;-)] question. We were talking about the difficulty in remediating hydro versus fossil fuel systems. What you have asked is if problems occur, how will power be shared. Programmers can't answer that question; engineers can't answer that question; maybe someone can but I can't find them. There are rules but they can be ignored in an emergency situation. If I was in the San Juans, I wouldn't worry. It doesn't get cold there. If I lived halfway up the side of Mt. Baker [or say Marblemount or Darrington], I would. It is unlikely that anyone you or I know at PSE will be in on that decision [just a guess that could be wrong in your case]. Good luck in finding information.

Best wis

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

Wow

Well to start with I only know about BC Hydro so there could only be speculation about the Washington situation as I understand it.

I have been at a couple of meetings with a BC Hydro rep there and they have been quite candid about the situation.

you asked

"Brian - Does BC Hydro produce all the power it sells? Where did the figure of 7% sold to the US come from? Where does it go - just to Washington/Idaho or is some sent all the way to California?"

BC Hydro produces far more power than we consume with Dams. There are smaller generating facilities but nothing much to speak of. Mostly Natural Gas (of which we have plenty of also). The Grid that we are connected to extends all the way down to Mexico I beleive and "We" provide power to that grid. The BC Hydro rep said that "we" export 7% of the power produced (Some to Alberta also). As there are limits to exporting power (transmission lines) there is no chance of exporting more.

The question came up in regards to islanding and while BC Hydro could do it, the risks are nontrivial and it is best to remain connected to the Grid. But if the need arises they only have one noninteruptable contract and the rest can be cut. The rep didn't point out the contract that is noninteruptable.

To reenforce this thought the rep said repeatedly that islanding will only be a last resort and it is unlikely to happen. They have alot of confidence in the grid and they would know better than myself.

As far as Washington goes you have the handicap of having muliple generating and transmission utilities but you also (I would assume) have alot of Hydro generating facilities which are the most reliable.

Here is the Washington State Y2K home page. It is a good one and could provide info that you need to help you understand the situation down there.

Year 2000 and YOU

Good luck

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 27, 1999.

Brian:

It is not down there it is up there, i.e., closer to heaven ;-). Everything Brian has said squares with what I know. Yet it doesn't answer your question. The question is not "is hydro reliable". It is where the power will go. Val; you asked the right question; I just don't know the answer. Brian was right; Wow.

Best wishes,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

Z1X4Y7

Down there or up there.

When I lived in the Arctic the south was reffered to as "Up south" and the north is "Down north" so in a sense you are right. Of course what northerners REALLY thought about south of 60 could not be printed in a public forum. Heaven would not be in the discription.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), November 27, 1999.

Brian:

BC and Alberta are two of my favorite places. I'm sorry that I haven't had time to visit more than I have. I have a list of places to see when I retire. That is a way off. Isn't Victoria a great place. I would like to see what is on the rest of the island. I have friends who have lived on the scattered islands north of there. It is an interesting part of the world.

Best wishes,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

Thanks guys - you answered my question - not! Guess we will all have to wait and see - just another adventure chapter in the book of life!! Hopefully, if the grid does go down, it will go down in a somewhat orderly manner so that all the BPA powerlines/switching stations up and over the mountains from eastern Washington stay viable. If they don't, I fear it could be well into spring before anything could be done to get power flowing again especially if we get the snow they are forecasting.

By the way, checked out the Washington Y2K site. It is one of the most thorough and easy to read ones I have checked on. Kudo's for that a least.

BTW,also, hubby is out now checking out the Huey with the Canadian engineers and they have her up and running for WTO which they are considering as practise for Y2K. Hopefully, they don't need it for either!!

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.xnet), November 27, 1999.

Val:

You have it right. We can answer your technical questions. Yeh, the hydro will work. We can't answer the political questions: will they cut off Mt. Vernon to send power to Chicago. I really don't know. But none of this may happen. Let us hope.

Best wishes,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), November 27, 1999.

While on the topic of the power grid , don't forget that we have a VERY big problem in 2000, even IF we get totally past Y2K.

There is the problem of the 11-year sunspot cycle, and I am not sure if this is the (alternate) one that "flips" the sun's magnetic field, but if it is...

Regardless, if you just use the EXCITE search engine and put in "ACE satellite", you will get a return (look about the 4th one down) that will take you to a page describing the far-orbiting ACE early-warning solar flare detector satellite. This one's orbit is many times farther-out than the moon.

We will have about 1 hour warning, it says, when the satellite can send the image/data from light-speed photons it detects, before the satellite is destroyed by super high-energy particles travelling just slightly slower than light.

This is supposed to give us time to gracefully turn down the grid, but since this has never been done, it is like a big Y2K test in that it is totally unpredictable as to what will happen, even if we do.

There is also a big problem as to what time of day a big flare hits. In N.A., in Canada and the Northern states, maximum power use occurs at suppertime, as everyone turns on things in their homes, has their auto block-heater plugged in(300-600W), and the office buildings have not been totally turned down/out yet.

Where I am, they announce, usually the day after, and always during a cold snap, that "yesterday at 6:12 P.M., we set an all-time power consumption record."

Think NASA isn't very worried about something they're not telling us?

Remember, last major cycle was 1989--the Internet was unknown, there were only a VERY few inter-connected computers(LANs, WANs, etc.), and cybernation itself overall was far less prevalent than now. Yet, Hydro-Quebec, which exports MASSIVE amounts of power to the Eastern US, had a major coronary when a flare blew out its grid.

Somebody post something cheery!

-- profit of doom (doom@helltopay.ca), November 28, 1999.