I can't post or read this forum on a regular basis, but it seems to me from the last couple of days of reading here and Rick's forum, that the consensus of opinion among the "experts" has changed. The utilities will be okay? Even something "cl" posted on here, I believe quoting Rick Cowles seem to indicate that he was not near as concerned about the utilities. I think that was last night or night before..

Perhaps that is the reason many "regulars" aren't here as often. I sense a lessening of tension. And I honestly don't think it's all spin.

I would be interested to know where Ed Yourden stands today on the issue of the utilities...Has he posted here recently? Sorry if I've missed the reality here.

LindaO.

-- LindaO (thingshavechanged@here.com), November 20, 1999

Answers

Yeah, I'm still here. On the subject of electric utilities, I defer to people like Rick Cowles, who spends full-time working in the area; I also respect the opinion of a few posters on this forum who show obvious evidence of having worked in both nuclear and non-nuclear plants.

I believe that Rick's latest assessment, as of a few days ago, was that it was highly unlikely that a major portion of the grid would fail in a "big bang" at midnight on 12/31/1999, but that it was somewhat more likely that a series of smaller problems would accumulate during the first weeks of January, possibly culminating in more serious problems if the utility companies were unable to keep up with the fixes.

For most of us, the immediate concern is our own neighborhood. I happen to live in a rural area of New Mexico where the power is supplied by a "cooperative," which in turn buys its power from a larger regional cooperative ... which has been operating in Chapter 11 bankruptcy for the last several months. That doesn't give me a lot of comfort with regard to Y2K remediation, regardless of whatever the official PR statements happen to be; even in normal times, we typically have power outages every month or so, usually lasting a couple of hours.

To some extent, the whole thing has become a non-issue for me, at least in terms of local disruptions: like many others here in the Taos area, I've got a solar-energy system and a windmill. It has taken over a year to find out how to gradually cut back on my family's profligate use of electricity, to the point where we can now operate in a civilized (if not altogether comfortable) fashion off the grid. And, having made the capital investment, it costs no money to operate. My electric bill has been cut in half for the past year, and I'll continue saving money with or without a Y2K problem. Same for natural gas: I've got a solar heating system that provides hot water, and heats the house.

As others have suggested on this thread, it's virtually impossible to know what's spin and what's truth, what's known and what's unknown. This was an incredibly frustrating situation 6-12 months ago, because many of us were trying to decide whether the risks were high enough to justify buying a generator, moving out of town, or whatever ... but at this point, it's a waste of time to continue the debate. It's too late to make any big decisions in this area, and we're only 41 days away from at least the beginning of "the answer" about all these different aspects of Y2K.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), November 20, 1999.

Do you like to mudwrestle?

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 20, 1999.

Sometimes...

Do you like to two-step? Texas style?

-- LindaO. (Somethingsare@thesame.com), November 20, 1999.

I certainly expect the lights to stay on 1/1/00. I have a lot of concern for 1/3/00, however, as that would be the day the heavy industries spin back up. I am not worried about normal processing as much as I am about the exception processing.

Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 20, 1999.

Just when the greenspun site is working at it's best! the ramblings are corrupted with trolls and non-y2k related news. Well, time to take a holiday break. Chill, eat, drink and be merry.

Assume NOTHING! Newspapers are burnt out with the crap they dish out. It's also possible that there are paid shills doing their thing to break-up this fine web news source.

Too many illusions are clouding all truths. Your decision to prep is on SOLID ground, no matter what!

It's a good time for a time out.

Assume NOTHING! (until late Spring of 2000)

-- dw (y2k@outhere.com), November 20, 1999.

I sense a concensus... That the real shit won't hit the fan until later in January. That y2k will be a gradual, not a sudden calamity. More like cancer than a heart attack, but just as painful, ugly, & deadly.

-- but what (do@I.know), November 20, 1999.

Linda, last time this year those grids were guarenteed to fail. How in such a short time has that changed? They can't fix those grids for this or search out millions of embedded chips to find out which will have a problem.

It was said LOUDLY and by pertinant authorities those grids are too complicated, they haven't a clue where those chips are, to the point that they couldn't even guess.

Now if you were a nation facing that what would you tell the people as the time approached? Would you think it wiser to let them have their little holidays and lives? If it were so hopeless as I described, and let us suppose for this moment it is, I really don't you think you'd tell the populace, not a nation this size and violent, and not such a size facing a hopeless scenario they could not possibly prepare for as a mass.

As the Feds spin, can you ignore how all the Fed departments ecetera are all disconnecting from the grid "just incase to protect their equipment?" The Pentagon is putting up solar powered generators for itself.

Will there be lights? I don't know. I'm not sure anyone really does. I'd say be braced for the possibility the grids might fail.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 20, 1999.

"If it were so hopeless as I described, and let us suppose for this moment it is, I really don't you think you'd tell the populace, not a nation this size and violent, and not such a size facing a hopeless scenario they could not possibly prepare for as a mass."

Paula, if this IS true: Can the handful of people who know it for a fact be expected to disappear from sight sometime next month? I mean those who have the means to do so.

If I were stinking rich & KNEW the grid were toast, I would be preparing to fall off the face of the earth sometime in December & take my family, my valuables, & my cats with me.

Wuddya think: Can we expect a "rapture"-like disappearance of certain people next month?

-- sticking it out (in@the.suburbs), November 20, 1999.

Right on Linda.

Though I'm prepped for a 5-7, I no longer believe there will be major Iron Triangle problems come January. Hence no logical reason for me to inflict the insanity of TB2000 upon myself, very often, in order to gleen bits & pieces of information.

Also, this forum was once a place of eclectic, eccentric discussion. TPTB here decided to narrow the field of tolerated opinion - while at the same time cultivating a "them vs. us" environment - sometime in June/July of this year, thereby driving off some of the best & brightest.

Best Wishes,

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), November 20, 1999.

Linda O,

From www.yourdon.com

This site was last updated on November 18, 1999.
Amazon has selected this site as one of its "featured sites" from mid-November to mid-December 1999, an honor that has motivated me to add some updates after a two-month hiatus. Among other things, I've added my latest Y2K column for Computerworld, entitled "Y2K Whistle-Blowers."

As of today, we're only 43 days away from the Big Rollover, and for those who keep emailing me to see if my opinion has changed because of some great cosmic insight in the past 24 hours, the answer is "no"; it's the same as it was back on February 7th, when I wrote "My Y2K Outlook: A Year of Disruptions, a Decade of Depression", and on September 7th, when I wrote "The Y2K End Game."

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 20, 1999.

Ooops, sorry. Italics off

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), November 20, 1999.

Bingo: as a longtime lurker and poster, I can tell you that the "us v. them" environment started long before June/July of this year.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), November 20, 1999.

As a longtime lurker I'm aware of this, "Preparing". My point was that the organized (yes organized) push to incite/inflame polarization became evident to me around June of this year.

I refer to TPTB in the above comments, not the so-called polly infiltraters.

-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), November 20, 1999.

I post, only because am I must lead. And NO, I am not going to "take out" the next Airplane trip I take. I abhour death and destruction. I do NOT have missles of Mast Destruction in my Mist. I am an simpleton, led by the Faith, of one human kindness, to another. Love One Another.

-- Comon sense (Thunder Thighs@belief.com), November 20, 1999.

Sticking it out, I don't think all the war games and military preparedness for domestic delpoyment complete with Apache Helicopters is for a trivial reason. It sounds like the people are kinda of raging and trying to have revolutions don't you think?

I'm not comfortable talking this on a public forum. I thought in my own best interest to sort of double speak msyelf, and let it seem I had been fooled by a bit of the Fed spin.

I'll say this once and then I am going back to my public face. I think its death out there up ahead. I think the grids are going to fail and a lot of water systems. I think millions of Americans (And other populations) are going to die within a short time frame. I do not think there will be gasoline to "truck in water" to endless millions and millions of people.

There have been many spiritualists who have seen people entering each house and coming out with food. The spiritualists then guess what that could be. It is my own guess "what that is" are people in a town who by fate, luck, and chance survived, going through a community that did not have any survivors, and gathering what they can find to further survive. And in such a scenario why shouldn't they? If the people all died in a 25 below night, why shouldn't the other town forage afterwards for food, medical supplies, blankets and so forth? Who is it hurting?

I not only think we will still remain the US of A but I believe by 2001 Canada and its survivors will also be a part of the US of A. We who survive be it by chance, fate, or preparedness are in for one heck of a wonderful life due to molecular nano technology. It will be an existence far and above our wildest dreams come true. That wonderful life will include all global survivors as well.

It is my own hope that molecular nano would save the day in time for all 6 billion people, but even if the breakthrough came today, the blueprints have not. Who's got the molecular nano blueprint for electrical grids?

We often think of these nightmares happening to colonies on the moon or Mars, yet it seems impossible to consider it for earth and its populations. Be honest, one can picture a failure and all the oxygen, water or food mechanism in a break down. That is the same technology we live on today. The same nuclear power plant. The same grids. The same computer technology. The same people involved. How can one picture it happening to a space colony but it's "different" here on earth? It's not different. That we've some air thus it's "different?" Not if enough power plants melt down. Not if chemical companies go into crises. There's a lake in the USA that killed 2000 people bubbling up some awful chemical all a part of nature that it set loose. Nor can we eat or drink air. At least on Mars we'd have our suits and bubbles for outside purposes and some ships for a quick exit.

I don't know all that is going to happen. I make no claim to knowing. I am not buying the bull about those grids being fixed by the twitch of a beautiful witch's nose. I'm just saying that. Nor do I think the state of CA all within six months fixed a totally noncompliant aqueduct.

Anyway, as I said, that was "it" for me, I'm going back to my public mode of, "local outages, gas spikes, and some food shortages at the end of Janaury." Back to my own form of doublespeak.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), November 20, 1999.

Thanks for all your responses. Thanks, Ed, for updating me on Rick's opinions, as well as your own. All of your opinions and input is valuable and emotionally helpful. At this point, I guess, I just come here to reinforce my earlier decision to prepare. In the " real " world I feel like a nutcase.

My husband has put in a 10,000 gal. rainwater collection system, with a pump and filters. Also, we have a generator, wood stove, food, etc. (We LOVE that rainwater system!). So we have committed to preparation. I guess I just drop in ever so often to make sure I haven't dropped down the rabbit hole.....

Thanks again to all of you. I've lurked off and on for over a year. I've learned a lot. KOS, I'm taking mud wrestling lessons....

-- LindaO. (thingshavechanged@here.com), November 20, 1999.

Paula,

Exactly WHO made the guarantee to which you refer??? Answer that and you'll see the problem has been those who refused to listen objectively to hard evidence of utility embedded systems readiness. To do so would remove one of the major catlysts required for the dreaded domino.

Mr. Yourdon,

With all due respect, I have been working in utility remediation for nearly 2 years, and every shred of evidence I have seen points to NO technology driven power outages due to Y2K. Now if Mr. Cowles, or you, or anyone else for that matter has evidence to the contrary - don't you have a moral obligation to show me YOUR evidence so I can fix it before December??? My test results do not support ANY plausible sequence of events that would lead to any decline in power system reliability and I have independent industry-wide corroboration of my test results. It is quite impressive that your opinion is so revered and your role in getting the utilities and others started in test/remediation is to be applauded. I frankly care little about your preparations and do not seek to influence people one way or another in regards to preps. I am only interested in the truth about the state of the power system because it is directly reltated to my job and my livelihood. I have data, test results to support my opinion and I have shared them to the extent I am able. I only want people like you and Mr. Cowles to share your data, support your opinions when your conclusions contradict the results of my tests.

Please be careful with your alternative power system, be sure to follow prudent safety practices. Good luck with your system.

-- cl@sky.com (cl_sky@excite.com), November 20, 1999.

Thanks Mr. Yourdon for your input. It is always appreciated.

MY big concern is that, even if the U.S. is y2k ready, there are a lot of nuts out there in the world who may see this event as a grand opportunity to throw nukes, chemicals, and other toys at each other...and just generally make a serious nuisance of themselves. The problem with the nukes, is if some nut decides to use them, it affects us all with the atmospheric problems it could cause. The U.S. government and business community can pat themselves on the back all they want but we'd better all be praying that the rest of the world acks in a sane reasonable manner before, during, and after the rollover, or life will become unpleasant for everyone in the neighborhood - on mother earth.

-- nothing (better@to.do), November 20, 1999.

Mr power industry spokesman, You want us to believe take on faith that the power grid is fixed. Answer the following questions. Has the remdiated software been put online on the real world systems under real world conditions. I dont believe they have. 24/7 systems is what I am talking about. parallel systems are not real world. If you did what did you find. What problems did you find in the embeded systems. This will tell how through you were. How well does your embeded systems handle dates. Is getting all the info on propietary switching devices available or AGC,DCS or scada. What if telecomunications goes down can you still provide relable service. You say the lights wont go out for New Years, but what about before new year's when the new software will be uploaded,will they power down to make sure critical equipment wont be distroyed. Or will the run right up against the jan 1 deadline. .Ill wait for your answer to this thread.

-- y2k aware mike (y2k aware mike@ conservation .com), November 21, 1999.

cl@sky.com, the government (Senator Bennett and the Senate Y2K Report) has been predicting, and continues to predict, scattered power outages due to Y2K. Why are they predicting this if, as you claim, there is no way this can happen? They must have some evidence that there will be problems or they wouldn't make such a prediction. You claim there will be absolutely no problems due to Y2K, yet the government is saying there will be some problems, minor to be sure, but still some problems. Do you know something that the U.S. Government doesn't? I don't think so.

-- Ohio Bob (ohiobob@buckeyestate.com), November 21, 1999.

I think there are legitimate concerns about electricity still on the table. And yes, I am well aware that volumes can be read between those lines. IMHO, it is the very ambiguity created by all of the spin doctors that is fueling these concerns at this late date. May I openly speculate and suggest that a great deal of the Y2K debate could have been diminished, or at least the energy diverted to constructive prep, if officials and other mouthpieces had only been candid with the public instead of playing CMA.

I do not believe that everything will go "boom" at midnight 12/31/99. If pressured to offer a scenario, I would be inclined to go along with a progressive series of failures as we move along in 2000, with more problems becoming evident and diminshed capacity to cope becomes evident. NOT good.

Hope for the best. Expect something else.

Regards,

Irving

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), November 21, 1999.

Paula, You wrote "....last time this year those grids were guarenteed to fail. How in such a short time has that changed? They can't fix those grids for this or search out millions of embedded chips to find out which will have a problem."

Can you refer me to some authoritive person or site that "guaranteed" the grid would fail? As I have been involved in Y2K issues within the power industry for two years, I would be concerned that there may be some issues that we have overlooked. Especially if the issues we have overlooked will shut us down.

You further wrote "It was said LOUDLY and by pertinant authorities those grids are too complicated, they haven't a clue where those chips are, to the point that they couldn't even guess."

I am also quite intrigued by this statement. Who are the "pertinant authorities"? In our company we are certainly aware of every embedded system that we have, and we have tested every single one of them. Over 5000 critical systems (within our 4 levels of criticality), and all suspect systems have either been replaced, or a suitable work around put in place. We will not clain to be Y2K compliant, as there is at least one system that can not be remediated in time, but that system is now running quite successfully with the date set back 10 years. It does not share any data with any other system, and if it had not been discovered, it would have listed alarms and events in the wrong sequence. We are Y2K ready.

Will there be lights? I don't know either, but I will be more suprised if they fail than if they stay on. I will also be braced for the possibility the grid might fail, but not so much due to Y2K, as to the possibility that too many consumers may try to disconect just before the rollover, then try to re-connect shortly after. This is the main reason the lights could go out.

Malcolm

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), November 21, 1999.

cl@sky:

Can I take your post to mean that you are confident about oil, telecommunications, and spare parts (many from small to medium-sized businnesses and/or originating in foreign countries, so by implication the foreign countries' infrastructure as well)?

Please note that I won't ask you to consider all other infrastructure components, customers, other key suppliers, the post office, etc etc. etc. This is just to help keep it focused for you, so ignore my second paragraph for now.

Thanks,

-- eve (123@4567.com), November 21, 1999.

cl@sky: It won't matter how well the power industry has remediated their computer systems if they cannot obtain the fuel (oil, coal or nuclear) needed to generate power. Since we're so very dependent on foreign countries for oil, which is the main energy source for the U.S., we're very vulnerable to serious power failures. Hasn't that occurred to you?

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), November 21, 1999.

This is a chilling thread for me to read on a Sunday morning. Not new news, but a reawakening. Net net, we really don't know what is going to happen and there are enough less than palatable alternatives out there to keep all of us awake.

I don't live off the grid, though with good old PG&E it sometimes seems like it. I also think I will watch the Y2K movie tonight. Even if it is poorly done, I am morbidly curious about what they have to say with any accompanying aftershocks in the market and in potential runs on grocery stores and banks. Think I will pass on buying any stocks on Monday morning (I have "passed" on that opportunity for several months).

Thanks for the posts, all. Ed Yourdon, I know you are accustomed to receiving thanks for your continued "voice in the wilderness", your hard work and ongoing sanity checks, but a lot of us owe you more than just a thanks for helping us Joe sixpacks and assorted public and private sectors become more aware of the magnitude of these issues. Would be nice to have another year to go, but we don't.

Sigh

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), November 21, 1999.

I am not a power expert. There I defer to the likes of experts such as Rick Cowles and Dick Mills. They tell me and give me good reason to believe that prolonged and widespread power failure is unlikely on Jan. 1. I tend to believe them, although I think Rick Cowles' point is well taken--that a generalized, downward spiral of error propagation will severely challenge the grid in later months. Probably we'll see WORSE blackouts next summer.

ON THE OTHER HAND I have no confidence that sabateurs won't try to blow up powerlines and gas pipes to bring about their self-fulfilling prophecy. A significant fraction of our population (myself tentatively included) now expects TS to HTF, and a smaller fraction of these will welcome it or help it along. Who knows what persuasion these vandals will hail? Maybe Hezbollah. Maybe binLaden. Perhaps ex-KGB. Perhaps FBI undercover people wanting to clear away some of this country's "rif raf" in the ensuing chaos. Perhaps drunken pranksters. Maybe they will be teenage whiz kids with too much time on their hands. Maybe a lone paranoid schizophrenic who gets his orders from the Grey Aliens telephathically via rays coming from his wrist watch. Who knows? Let's not forget that, as Dan G says, Y2k is a subset of the millennium (sp?) problem.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), November 21, 1999.

Hi cl@sky, nice to hear from you. However, please bear in mind that it's hard for us to share your confidence because all we get from *both* sides are anecdotes.

Also, it's a little worrying that despite your professed confidence that All Is Well, you ask (very responsibly, actually) to see the evidence that it's not. If you're sure that you're right, then there IS no evidence. So you're not sure. So *I'm* not sure. :(

-- Colin MacDonald (roborogerborg@yahoo.com), November 22, 1999.