I've been reading the discussions in regards to possible oil production problems that have included DD1stLight, and while it may be impossible for us (read "me") to know for sure whether or not she is first *genuine* and second *accurate* in what she says she knows, it has reminded me of a concern I had back in January 1999. At the time I believe there had been a number of articles on the possibility of "islanding" if any of the regional grids became unstable.

I recall wondering what would happen even if it was possible for Manitoba Hydro to "disconnect" from the Eastern grid. Wouldn't we have contractual obligations to some or all of our partners in the grid? What if New York City was without power? How would the Manitoba Provincial Government react if a request was made to help by sending electrical power,for example, for three days out of every seven? What if Minneapolis had people dying of cold and requested our help? How could we refuse?

If DD1stLight is right about a huge, long lasting reduction in oil supply, don't the odds of electrical power production problems increase way beyond recent estimates? Doesn't that mean that the risks to any of us in a winter climate may be exponentially higher that what's been estimated up to now?

Here are two of the questions I asked Manitoba Hydro back in January and Manitoba Hydro's response (I've just copied and pasted but I can forward the complete e-mails if requested): 3. Although you state you do have the option of disconnecting from the "grid", you do believe that it will be unnecessary. Because you are a net exporter of power do you not have either legal or moral obligations to your partners in that grid, whether they be in the U.S.A. or in Ontario? 4. Would those obligations take precedence under any circumstances?

Hydro's answers: 3. Presently Manitoba Hydro export contracts are written such that domestic load has priority over export contracts. With respect to "moral" obligations, Manitoba Hydro would only disconnect itself if it were aware that other systems were unstable and could affect our operations in Manitoba. It would be pointless to remain connected and risk disruption in Manitoba if we could isolate and remain stable and subsequently act as a resource to assist neighbouring utilities.

4. I am not aware of any circumstances in which our "obligations take precedence."

There are two phrases that may be a comfort some or a concern to others: *subsequently act as a resource to assist neighbouring utilities* and *I am not aware*

I recall that I took some personal comfort (and probably felt a little smug...for that I apologize sincerely) in believing that if Hydro had done a good, thorough job of remediation and testing, that our risks here in Manitoba might be lower than yours. If what DD1stLight says is true, then I was wrong and I'd better think of getting a 3rd cord of wood!

Can anyone speak, first hand or otherwise, to the issue of obligations between grid partners? It seems we are all in it together afterall, aren't we?

Regards to all.

-- Bob Greenhalgh (bobgreen@sprint.ca), November 03, 1999

Answers

Hiya Bob! A fellow Canadian? That's a treat!

You want first hand knowledge? I'll give you what I have.

I recall getting a statement (with my bill) back in the beginning of this year explaining that BC Hydro would fulfill its contracts with grid partners. I sent an email to the PR folks, asking a list of detailed questions (some of which I've had answered by research) but have received NO ANSWER from BC Hydro on any question.

How about names? Alan Chabot, city clerk for the city of Prince George gave me a generous 45 minutes of his smoke break time to discuss how the BC Forest Service (me) could help him out informing an increasingly info-starved populace. During the course of this interview he told me that city hall had:

A. worked out a deal with Northwood Inc. (local pulpmill with mostly self-generated power) to provide electricity to the city for essential services should it be needed.

B. just installed a large generator in the basement of city hall.

C. hired an independant contractor (I don't know the name) from Vancouver to provide electrical repair and general troubleshooting for an eight-week period following the century rollover.

I've personally seen independant trucking outfits hauling, on two flatbeds, eight large diesel generators, with 300 gallon fuel tanks into town and parking overnight outside Esther's Inn. I counted them myself. I know what a diesel generator looks like.

Anything else you want to know? I'm tired of doublespeak and CYA.

Kurt.

-- Kurt Borzel (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), November 03, 1999.

Might be a good time to add some insulation.

-- snooze button (alarmclock_2000@yahoo.com), November 04, 1999.

Hi All,

Insulation? You betchum.

The oil situation is what has me concerned, being also from a cooler climate. Even my power company thinks it isn't a bad idea to have extra firewood, warm clothes, food, water and ... a generator. (This was a suggestion in their brochure last year about this time.)

That's why I'm trying to pay close attention to DD1, RC, GG, and others who seem to know what's up with oil.

-- Dean -- from (almost) Duh Moines (dtmiller@midiowa.net), November 04, 1999.

Bob, Minneapolis will IMO have people dying from the cold in January, and there will be nothing Manitoba will be able to do to help. As a Minnesotan, I say thanks for the thought, though.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 04, 1999.

I live on the 26th floor of an apartment building in Winnipeg, Manitoba, where would I store 3 cords of wood??? Maybe I should head to California Dec.27th with my folks....

-- chillyinWinnipeg (brrr@cold.com), November 04, 1999.

Don't forget, oil is transportation and food and product distribution. Our geese are cooked, fellas.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 04, 1999.

Since this is a critical [and much-criticized :)] statistic, here's the source for that '30 per cent of U.S. refinery capability after Y2K' quote, which is now frequently being disputed [these messages were originally posted late in the "OIL CHAT" thread, and are reproduced here - with additional source references - for those interested readers who probably missed them there]: "I understand that the commercial fuel industry is facing a Y2K challenge in their refinery operations. Some reports state that only 30% of their refineries will be renovated by January 1, 2000." - from a question and answer exchange between, among others, Senator Strom Thurmond and a Dr. Harris, of the Pentagon, at a meeting of the U.S. Congressional Supplier Capability Working group. [minutes now taken off-line. Quoted by the 'New World Order Intelligence Update' - which I edit - directly from my own reading of those minutes; and first published in our 'Y2K Weekly Alert', December 14th, 1998]

You can see this, together with a mass of other Y2K quotes [including the elusive Chevron SEC statements], on the 'New World Order Intelligence Update' web site at

http://www.inforamp.net/~jwhitley/Y2KQUOTE.HTM

-- John K. Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 01, 1999. ___________________________

Here's the complete quote from those minutes:

COMMENT: I understand that the commercial fuel industry is facing a Y2K challenge in their refinery operations. Some reports state that only 30% of their refineries will be renovated by January 1 ,2000. QUESTION: Has the Department [of Defence] looked at the potential impact upon its operations if 70% of the U.S. refinery operations are shut down? QUESTION: How long will the Department's supply of fuel last if deliveries are suspended? COMMENT: Over the past several years the DoD has expanded its reliance upon "direct vendor delivery" and "just in time Logistics." This has allowed the Department to save money by reducing the inventory levels that must be stored and maintained. However, this has made the Department more susceptible to disruptions in commercial deliveries. QUESTION: Has the DoD fully explored the impact on our military capability if the private sector contractors are not able to supply the Department because of a Y2K- related failure in their production and transportation systems...?

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 01, 1999. __________________________

I've now [miraculously!] found the original DoD Y2K briefing.

Its been rearchived at

http://www.c3i.osd.mil/doc/

Go to the third item down:

* 'DoD Y2K Briefing, 9 September 1998 (archived .zip file)'

[This is a a lengthy download, since it's a zipped slide briefing]

You need slide 43 - "Supplier Capability Working Group".

This gives you a pretty good idea of what to expect from the oil industry re. availability of refined product after Y2K...:(

'Fix on Failure', as applied to non-remediated refineries with embedded chip problems, appears to require building new refineries [under NORMAL conditions a two-to-five year task]!

-- John Whitley (jwhitley@inforamp.net), November 04, 1999.