GartnerGroup: Millennium Won't Plunge the World into Darknessgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
The GartnerGroup has just made what I think is a rather bold prediction about Y2K. I hope it's true, but without end-to-end testing, hang on to that bottled water and those canned goods you've bought.[snip]
But now it is confident that electricity, probably the most important component of the world's infrastructure, will flow without interruption.
``During December 1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services,'' the Gartner report said.
[snip]
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 02, 1999
[Fair Use: For Educational/Research Purposes Only]
Millennium Won't Plunge The World Into Darkness
10:08 a.m. Nov 02, 1999 Eastern
LONDON (Reuters) - The lights will stay on as the year 2000 arrives, the firm which helped to alert the world to the dangers of the millennium computer bug predicted Tuesday.
In a report, U.S. technology consultancy Gartner Group said electricity supplies around the world will remain more or less stable as clocks strike midnight on December 31.
Countries where electricity supplies are usually reliable can expect business as usual. Third world countries can expect the normal level of power cuts.
Gartner has taken a high profile in urging action to combat the millennium bug, which could hit as computer clocks move to the next century. Experts worry that computer programs which record dates in two digits like 89 or 97, will trip over the two zeros in 2000 and cause chaos around the world.
Gartner famously said it would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion to solve this so-called Y2K problem worldwide.
But now it is confident that electricity, probably the most important component of the world's infrastructure, will flow without interruption.
``During December 1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services,'' the Gartner report said.
``All year 2000 assessments agree on one thing: everyone is dependent on infrastructure services. Both public sector and commercial organizations claim that they are ready for the century boundary, but point at infrastructure services like electricity and telephony,'' the report said.
``Electricity providers say that their big uncertainty is telephony services, and telcos say they will be fine as long as electricity is OK,'' the report said.
Gartner concluded that electricity suppliers will handle the date change with few problems. The expected dip in demand for electricity over the holiday also provides a cushion.
``At the period of critical risk -- midnight on December 31, 1999 -- electricity planners believe that there will be historic low demand. This is because so many industrial users will have shut down plant and equipment as part of their year 2000 boundary plans,'' according to the report.
Supply disruptions will be greater in third world countries.
``Some countries claim to have better than 99.995 percent continuity of supply for more than 98 percent of consumers, whereas some developing countries have less than 50 percent availability at normal times. Year 2000 disruption should be measured against what is normal for the country.''
Copyright 1999 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved.
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-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), November 02, 1999.
...the Tinfoils won't like this.. They will respond with their usual litany of Doomer logic:What about embedded chips?
They're part of the Klinton Konspiracy...
I wonder how much they're getting paid to lie?
Government stooges!
Don't listen - But Gold!
Concentration camps for GIs
Poisin contrails, etc.
-- Y2K Pro (y2kpro1@hotmail.com), November 02, 1999.
Y2KPRO,Could you please help me determine what will happen. Tell me, what do you think will happen. Will it have any effect at all..?
Should I buy a couple day's worth of grocery's..? Or shouldn't I bother...??
You seem pretty educated on the issue. So, what's your honest take..?
-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), November 02, 1999.
Even Y2K Pro doesn't swallow this BS. It is fully aware that the spin is to prevent investment $$ from leaving the countries that the Senate told us were toast last week.
-- lisa (lisa@work.now), November 02, 1999.
I don't think the Gartner Group is going to post an outright lie, or that they being paid by the government to mislead anyone. I do have to wonder, however, how anyone can say that the electricity will flow without interuption when it is very clearly obvious right now that isn't true.
-- (just@a.thought), November 02, 1999.
So electricity and all of electricity's suppliers will be fine:the: oil, water, sewage, banking and finance, coal, communications, natural gas, spare parts, trains/ transportation, telephone, suppliers' suppliers, suppliers' suppliers' suppliers, etc. etc. (including the small-medium sized businesses and the ones in the foreign countries, which implies the foreigh countries' infrastructure too) -- oh yes, their customers too -- and, oh yes, again -- their employees will be able and willing to get to work -- In other words, the whole world will be just fine.
Thank God we've got the Gartner Group. For a while there I thought we were in trouble.
-- eve (123@4567.com), November 02, 1999.
Hey Eve, didya drop this apple?Hold on, (CHOMP), sayyyy, that' goo...... OH MY GOD, I just realized we need more preps!
Adam
(BTW, put on some clothes, will ya?)
-- --- (adam@theold.garden), November 02, 1999.
I find discussions on this forum regarding GartnerGroup reports very interesting. When their reports reflect negative consequences they [GartnerGroup] are held up by many here as a valid source of factual information. On the other hand, when their reports reflect "positive" news this same entity is ridiculed as _ (pick a word... short- sighted, misinformed, liars, sell-outs, shills, etc).Would be interested in hearing from some "regulars" here... Do you, or, do you NOT have confidence in the accuracy of what the GartnerGroup reports?
-- CD (not@here.com), November 02, 1999.
If there is no oil, there will be no electricity.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 02, 1999.
Y2KPRO,Please... Give me your opinion...
-- STFrancis (STFrancis@heaven.com), November 02, 1999.
That depends on who their client is in any given week, CD. These claims by Gartner don't jibe with the pessimistic outlook for electricity in some countries as described in the Department of State's travel advisories.
-- Y (y@y.y), November 02, 1999.
Same problem there y@y.yThe State Department used to get "F" from Rep. Horn in his report cards. Now, they are suddenly experts. So, you will except the government's statements if they agree with you, same as Gartner.
Personally, I think the State Dept. was the last agency to understand Y2K, so I take anything they say with a grain of salt.
Gartner's report here certainly does jive with what Bruce McConnell of the Internatinal Y2K Coordinating Council (I think that's the right name) said.
-- i am not worried about (power@my.house), November 02, 1999.
I'm sure Gartner's clients get good advice about specific IT projects. Predicting the outcome of Y2k is risky however because nobody knows for how the global economy is intertwined.
-- Y (y@y.y), November 02, 1999.
just@a.thought,Unfortunately I must be a bit slow, could you explain just what is so clearly obvious, and more importantly, Why it is so clearly obvious.
Malcolm
-- Malcolm taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), November 02, 1999.
Malcolm -Don't hold your breath waiting for an answer.
-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), November 02, 1999.
Actually, I would think that Gartner Group's prediction that power availability will be Business As Usual for the entire world (noting that the service level of third world countries is different) to actually make a degree of sense. Remember, the usual optimistic prediction touted is that the U.S. and other nations that have supposedly done a lot of Y2K remediation will be OK, but the less Y2K aware nations are in deep yogurt. That one, I have never been able to swallow. Not that I am putting much faith in Gartner Group, either, but at least I acknowledge a consistent prediction that makes a reasonable degree of sense.
58 days.
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 03, 1999.
It's the old STAKES versus ODDS argument again. Big stakes, small odds. Do ya feel lucky? Well, do ya??
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), November 03, 1999.