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<< LONDON (Reuters) - The lights will stay on as the year 2000 arrives, the firm which helped to alert the world to the dangers of the millennium computer bug predicted Tuesday.

In a report, U.S. technology consultancy Gartner Group said electricity supplies around the world will remain more or less stable as clocks strike midnight on December 31.

Countries where electricity supplies are usually reliable can expect business as usual. Third world countries can expect the normal level of power cuts.

Gartner has taken a high profile in urging action to combat the millennium bug, which could hit as computer clocks move to the next century. Experts worry that computer programs which record dates in two digits like 89 or 97, will trip over the two zeros in 2000 and cause chaos around the world.

Gartner famously said it would cost between $300 billion and $600 billion to solve this so-called Y2K problem worldwide.

But now it is confident that electricity, probably the most important component of the world's infrastructure, will flow without interruption.

``During December 1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services,'' the Gartner report said.

``All year 2000 assessments agree on one thing: everyone is dependent on infrastructure services. Both public sector and commercial organizations claim that they are ready for the century boundary, but point at infrastructure services like electricity and telephony,'' the report said.

``Electricity providers say that their big uncertainty is telephony services, and telcos say they will be fine as long as electricity is OK,'' the report said.

Gartner concluded that electricity suppliers will handle the date change with few problems. The expected dip in demand for electricity over the holiday also provides a cushion.

``At the period of critical risk -- midnight on December 31, 1999 -- electricity planners believe that there will be historic low demand. This is because so many industrial users will have shut down plant and equipment as part of their year 2000 boundary plans,'' according to the report.

Supply disruptions will be greater in third world countries.

``Some countries claim to have better than 99.995 percent continuity of supply for more than 98 percent of consumers, whereas some developing countries have less than 50 percent availability at normal times. Year 2000 disruption should be measured against what is normal for the country.'' Somedays I feel like a doomer and somedays I don't---Kinda sounds like someday I feel like a nut somedays I dont.

-- Boz (Boz_Inc@yahoo.com), November 02, 1999

Answers

I have always felt that we will not lose electricity or gas in our area during the rollover. Look in my storage area and you will see a new Kero-Sun heater, a dozen 5 gal kero cans, all sorts of different propane heater heads, propane stoves, sterno stoves and fuel, flashlights and battery operated lanterns.

I have decided that I wasnt going to spend the rest of the year swinging back and forth wondering if we would or wouldnt lose power and how it would affect me. Now I have all the things I could need for power and heat loss and its not an issue. Cost a few hundred dollars but these items will last for decades if I dont use them.

Today its VERY windy and about to start raining here on Long Island and the chances are good we will lose power for at least a few hours. Wont matter to me, I am ready for it, even if it should last a few days.

We won't know if they are telling the truth on compliancy until the day comes when they are tested by the actual rollover, so I have removed the need to be worried, I have alternatives.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), November 02, 1999.

In reading this it is apparent that it is another case of double- speak. ``During December 1999 and January 2000, at least 99 percent of the global population will receive at least 99 percent of their normal service levels for electrical infrastructure services,'' then says, "Supply disruptions will be greater in third world countries."

Last time I checked, third world countries were more than 1% of the total population.

The closer we get the more confusing everything becomes as everyone start hedging their bets. When everyone has gone on record with every possible scenario, they will be right no matter what... You have to give GN credit, he stays out there while the rest seem to creep a little closer to his position, then move back.

I too hope the power stays on, that DD Reed is wrong, that all the gummit preps are for nothing, and that the programmers who tell us to take this seriously are wrong, but risk my family's welfare on that hope, nahhhhhhh. Keep preping and feed the homeless if you are wrong, or wait for the next natural disaster and be prepared.

If TPTB are wrong, it will be criminal. It still pisses me off that they would let it come right down to the wire. It is a sad commentary that we can't believe them.

"We throw the petty thieves in jail, and appoint the good ones to public office."

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), November 02, 1999.

I'm with you Hamster, it doesn't matter to me which way it goes. Financially most of my money is in food, TP, and fuel for the campstove. Most of my gear was purchased at garage sales for very little money. There's nothing that I have that I won't use if it's a BITR. But I do know one thing, the stores are making big bucks now but come next year their sales will fall sharply because us doomers won't be in their stores purchasing products. Do you think they know this?

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 02, 1999.

I do know that today I noticed for the first time Winn-Dixie marketplace selling generators. I mean 700$ jobs, pretty nice looking machines. There was a stack of four of them. Very strange, 'eh?

I'm totally serious about that. It does seem a little odd (for whatever reason. Maybe some people DO want to cater to people who don't know better.) I'm what you guys would call a Polly, and I really don't have any plans to prepare for much more than 14 days, like Stan F. advocates. But still, it has been the very first time I've seen generators in a supermarket, right at the end of the candy isle no less.

I take it with a grain of salt, but I am still smart enough not to write it off completely.

-- (anon@anon.com), November 02, 1999.

Why would generators be an odd thing to have in a supermarket? If a store thinks they can sell them then why not? Home Base here has been out of them for several months. I don't have a generator because I do not have a need for one but I am sure there are people who do. If your preparing for 14 days, at least as a "polly" something has sunk into your head.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 02, 1999.

I think the point is that if they have never seen an avenue to sell them before, why now?

I am totally aware that people all over are just out to make a buck, but not everyone. Maybe they just want to open a new source of income. Hell I don't know for sure. But like I said, I've never seen any store stock generators up front by the registers like all those impulse buying items. (By that I mean, up by the front of the store at the end of the candy isle.)

Just two copper, one cent pieces. Take 'em or leave 'em, no sweat off my skin.

-- (just@a.thought), November 02, 1999.

Stan F can speak for himself but I don't think he is advocating a preparation for 14 days but offers a plan to COMPLETE your preps within a 14 day period.

-- (fourteen@daze.days), November 02, 1999.

I can complete a 14-day preparation in 1 day. I'm experienced, know what to buy, and know what to prepare for. I bet 95% of the population haven't a clue where to begin. Knowledge is power.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), November 02, 1999.