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25 October 1999

U.S. Officials Confident Nuclear Plants Ready for Y2K

(Observers remain concerned about Y2K impact) (1620) By Jim Fuller Washington File Science Writer

Washington -- The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) says that the Year 2000 (Y2K) problem will not have an adverse impact on the ability of the 103 U.S. nuclear power plants to safely operate or shut down. Critics say serious safety problems remain at American reactors, and at more than 430 nuclear reactors operating around the world, especially those located in Eastern Europe.

While emphasizing that all nuclear power plants in the United States will be able to operate safely during the transition from 1999 to 2000, NRC officials reported on October 22 that only nine plants still had additional Y2K work to complete on non-safety computer or other support systems.

The Y2K technology problem, also called the Millennium bug, prevents computers from reading the year 2000 correctly and can potentially cause wide-ranging system failures. Observers of the nuclear utility industry are concerned that the Y2K bug could plunge certain areas into darkness and threaten health and safety.

Frank Miraglia, deputy executive director for reactor programs at NRC, told the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee September 23 that three nuclear power plants -- located in Texas, Alabama and New Jersey -- have November-or-later deadlines to complete their Y2K work "on non-safety plant support systems." At least one of those plants has a Y2K readiness deadline as late as mid-December. Sixteen additional plants had late October deadlines.

"We will closely monitor the progress of plants that still have some systems left to remediate, but we fully expect that all commercial nuclear power plants will operate safely, as planned and without interruption, through the Y2K transition," Miraglia said.

He added that the NRC has been involved in the nuclear power industry's Y2K readiness for the past two years, including on-site program reviews. In addition, the industry's Y2K efforts are being coordinated with the North American Electric Reliability Council, the organization managing the overall Y2K readiness efforts of the electricity industry. The NRC's report on the Y2K readiness of nuclear power plants is available on the Internet at: www.nrc.gov/NRC/NEWS/year2000.html. However, the Senate Special Committee on the Y2K Technology Problem, in a study released September 22, said there is "heightened concern" with regard to organizations and industries that project Y2K readiness dates in the last quarter of 1999. The "The 100 Day Report" referred specifically to 500 oil and gas companies and 30 nuclear power plants that projected Y2K completion dates after September 30.

Senator Robert Bennett, chairman of the special Y2K committee, said that setting a late deadline for Y2K readiness in a nuclear power plant "may not allow enough time to address problems in such an immensely complex and potentially dangerous facility. Total Y2K readiness of the nation's nuclear power plants is vital to keeping the lights on in certain areas, and is absolutely necessary to guarantee public safety during the millennium date change."

Mary Olson, Y2K project coordinator for the Nuclear Information Resource Service (NIRS) -- a coalition of nuclear energy and environmental activists -- said in an interview that it is very unlikely that a Y2K event could directly cause a reactor accident. This is because, in most nuclear power plants around the world, the systems required to safely shut down the plant are analog rather than digital. The latter system relies on numerical digits that make it susceptible to Y2K problems.

But Olson adds that other systems are vulnerable to Y2K failures and could indirectly trigger an accident at a reactor site. She said one of the most serious possibilities in this regard would be a local or regional loss of electrical power.

"The reactor cannot operate without electricity," she said. "The pumps that cool the reactor core itself and the cool pools of water used to store used reactor fuel rely on offsite electricity. So we have pools containing billions of curies of radioactivity, and, of even more concern for Y2K, a lot of heat. And heat is one of the key concerns here, because it's the heat of radioactive decay that needs constant cooling."

Experts say that if the water in the pools used to store used reactor fuel is not cooled, the fuel rods could boil the water off, causing a radioactive steam plume. The rods could even, potentially, reach critical meltdown temperatures if left uncooled for long enough.

Nuclear power plants rely on backup diesel generators to provide power if the electricity fails. But critics say that the generators are unreliable, and express concern that the seven-day fuel supply required by the NRC for the generators might not be sufficient in cases of significant system breakdowns.

NIRS has petitioned the NRC to require that nuclear facilities have a 60-day fuel supply to provide backup power during the Y2K transition, and have alternate renewable means of backup power available.

"Our research shows that back-up diesel generators are not as reliable as people have a right to expect, given that Y2K failures may cause local and regional power outages," said NIRS Director Paul Gunter. "Diesel generators have mechanical failures, fuel problems, are prone to overheating, and in some cases, vulnerable to the Y2K bug itself."

An NRC spokesman has said that while the agency considers a seven-day fuel supply sufficient to handle the operation of the diesel generators in the event that offsite power is lost, many plants are planning to have additional fuel oil onsite as part of their Y2K contingency planning efforts.

"We also know from experience that diesel generators will reliably supply back-up power for extended periods of time," he added. "For example, the diesel generators effectively provided power to the Turkey Point nuclear power plant in Florida for several days during hurricane Andrew in August 1992."

According to the North American Electric Reliability Council and the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, massive national disruptions in electric power are unlikely. However, some minor local outages may occur, according to the assessments conducted by both groups.

U.S. utilities experienced no problems on September 9, 1999, a date seen as a test of computer readiness for the Year 2000. But Energy Secretary Bill Richardson said following the test that eight major electric utility providers are still not yet Y2K ready, and an additional 16 municipal utilities and rural cooperatives had not reported their progress. There are about 3,000 utilities in North America.

John O'Keefe, special representative for Y2K at the U.S. Agency for International Development, said it is not so much power generation, but the power distribution system that appears to be most sensitive to Y2K disruptions. This is because the distribution grids include numerous embedded computer chips, and their ability to balance power loads depends on a working telecommunications system.

"So you have a sector that's both vulnerable because of embedded chips and because it depends on another sector that's also very technologically reliant," O'Keefe said at a recent Congressional hearing..

O'Keefe said that many countries are lagging in their Y2K efforts, and electric power grids, telecommunications systems and the medical sector appear the most vulnerable.

Lawrence Gershwin, the Central Intelligence Agency's national intelligence officer for science and technology, told a House committee October 21 that his agency has determined that Russia, Ukraine, China and Indonesia are the major countries most likely to experience "significant Y2K-related failures." He added that the countries of Western Europe are better prepared, and that the United States, Canada, Britain, Australia, Singapore and Hong Kong have the lowest chances of experiencing significant problems.

Gershwin said that old Soviet-designed nuclear plants in Russia and Ukraine are the most vulnerable to potential Year-2000 computer failures, particularly if combined with power losses. He said these so-called Chernobyl-type reactors have "inherent design problems," including lack of total containment systems.

Ken Baker, the U.S. Department of Energy's principal deputy assistant secretary for nonproliferation and national security, told a Senate committee September 30 that nuclear accidents in Russia will be no more likely than usual due to Y2K. "But there are Y2K issues with other systems important to safety and normal plant operations, if left uncorrected, could compromise nuclear safety," he added.

All Soviet-designed reactors have radiation monitoring systems that are known to be vulnerable to the Y2K bug. Also vulnerable are the plants' security access systems and core monitoring software. If these problems are not fixed, Baker said, they could result in the simultaneous shut down of several nuclear plants, causing major disruptions of power supplies in the middle of winter. Nuclear power plants in cities like Kola and Leningrad provide half of northwest Russia's electricity requirements.

The NRC has invited countries with major nuclear power programs to participate in a Y2K Early Warning System to facilitate the sharing of information during the transition to Year 2000. About 25 countries, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, several Western European countries, Canada and Mexico have committed to using the system. The NRC is also working with Department of Energy to encourage the participation of former Soviet Union countries like Russia and Ukraine.

Also, U.S. embassies and consulates in 164 nations are prepared to report to the State Department at one hour past midnight local time on January 1 to relay information on any potential problems.

The Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is coordinating Y2K information about nuclear power plants worldwide and is the principal source of information on the status of Y2K compliance and nuclear safety in other countries. Information on IAEA's Y2K activities can be found on their website at: www.iaea.org/worldatom/program/y2k/.

(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State)

-- Homer Beanfang (Bats@inbellfry.com), October 25, 1999

Answers

So, the same at the status of Three mile Island or Chernobyl before the events.

I= Impact

C=Chernobyl

T=TMI

I=430*(C+I)/2

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), October 26, 1999.

Sorry, screwed up the formula.

So, the same at the status of Three mile Island or Chernobyl before the events.

I= Impact

C=Chernobyl

T=TMI

I=430*(C+T)/2

-- ng (cantprovideemail@none.com), October 26, 1999.