From the Prudent bear forum.

The four possible, nay five possible outcomes and their probabilities:

1. Grand Super Cycle crash from here to triple figures: 20%

2. Sideways Greenspan/Yardeni Bear for 3.5 years: 10%

3. "Reversion to Mean" crash (Super Cycle?) c/w dowside overshoot to ~3000 and recovery to ~5000, erasing "New Era" moral hazard: 67%

4. Final Blow-off to New Highs: 3%

Oh yes, and lest we forget:

5. PC really does change Human Nature, thus creating the New Paradigm: 0%

And now a few words from ex-AK-Broker

Current Market News

10-15 Welcome to the promised land. Ive always been amazed how years of analytical work come to fruition at once. Now is just such a time. Take your phone off the hook. Put up the "do not disturb sign." Call in sick, and pay attention to this.

The PPI was released this morning. It was up an astonishing 1.1%. Thats over 12% annualized. The core rate -- the one Wall Street was telling you would not be affected -- soared 0.8%. All the b.s. weve seen in the PPI reports has finally come to roost.

Consumer foods prices were up 1%. Energy goods, up 2.2%. Gasoline was up 2.2%. Heating oil, up 6%. But this is not energy-based inflation. Passenger cars soared 2%. Thats after all those months where I screamed that prices were soaring. Finally, they couldnt hide it any longer. But this is not the part of the report that is causing panic at the Fed.

Inside information I have says Greenspan got an advance warning of the report. Here are the sections that triggered his astonishing warning yesterday. Intermediate energy goods were up 1.8%. But crude goods were up a whopping, gone-crazy 5.1%. Crude goods less food and energy, up 2.2%. Non-food materials, up 7.6%. Incredible numbers, my friends. But it gets even better.

Let me give you the unadjusted numbers. They are staggering economists the world over. Unadjusted finished goods, up 3.2%. Thats an incredible 40% annual inflation rate. Not in Brazil, but in the United States. Less food and energy, up 1.7% unadjusted. Even more staggering, crude goods unadjusted were up 16.1%. Non-food materials unadjusted up 30.2%.

Theres no inflation?? BULL. Inflation is out of control. Its now embedded. Its bubbling to the surface, and the U.S. economy is going to hell. Already, as I write this report the Dow is down nearly 200 points.

U.S. business inventories and sales were also reported today. From July to August, this number was up 1.3%. From August 1998 to August 1999 it was up an astonishing 9.2%. Inventories were only up .3%. Which means businesses are unable to keep up with the runaway economy.

The August stock to sales ratio is now at 1.32. The lowest amount of inventory to sales, American business has ever held.

Greenspans warning last night, to American bankers, was the most incredible speech any central banker has ever made. Greenspan will go down in history for making one of the gravest mistakes of any Fed Chairman. He did not raise rates early, when he still had a chance to stop this runaway bubble economy.

Greenspan needs to stop cocking around here. He needs to raise rates. Now, fast, and repeatedly. He has a flat-out crisis on his hands. The least of which is the stock market collapse. Hes on record warning American bankers about a stock market collapse. Truth is, Greenspan is petrified the crash will melt down the U.S. financial system. So he took a greater risk. He allowed inflation to become embedded in the U.S. economy.

For over ten years, Ive warned about the danger of a U.S. stock market bubble crash. Its here. You need to trade this. Im not screwing around. More important, the Fed and the markets are not screwing around. By the time everyone else realizes the U.S. economy is going down the poop shoot, it will be too late.

10-15 Today the stock market suffered its biggest trading loss in over a year. The dollar plunged against the Euro, German Mark, and Japanese yen. T-bonds were up, yields were slightly down, on a flight to quality. Panicked traders sought a safe haven.

The Dow fell 267 points. 2.6%. The S&P500 cash fell 36.01 points, to 1247.41. That is a 2.8% drop. The NASDAQ plunged 75 points, to 2732. Down 2.4%. For the week, the Dow fell 630 points. That is its biggest weekly decline ever. Declining stocks outnumbered gainers by nearly four to one. 2400 stocks fell. 687 were up. We saw an equal number of falling stocks to rising on the NASDAQ.

Early indications I have say this week saw the biggest dollar outflow from mutual funds ever. All this action took place on huge volume. 908 million shares traded on the NYSE today.

I was in the market the entire day. The only way to describe todays trading activity is "panic". Huge losses were booked. I mean huge. This is not the end of the move. It is the start of the Wall Street wipeout you and I have been planning for.

At one point today, the Dow was below 10,000. Only panicked, manipulated buying by club members kept the Dow above 10,000 at the close. I dont care what kind of spin you see. This is an unmitigated disaster. It is truly round one, in what will turn out for us to be the most glorious event of our lives.

This weeks losses on Wall Street rippled around the world. Stock markets in Europe, Asia, and Latin America all fell, as Greenspan warned about the bubble stock market wipeout. In the coming days and weeks, the market will not go straight down. There will be rally attempts. But as you see, buying for the long haul, regarding every dip as a bargain hunting opportunity, is no longer the psychology of the market.

How serious is this drop? One indication is that the White House felt the need to reassure the markets that everything is great. Not once, but several times. White House National Economic Counsel Head Gene Sperling said he expected "quite solid U.S. economic growth in the 3rd quarter of the year." Hey, Gene, I have news for you. 3rd quarter is done past. The stock market looks forward, not backward. He said, "the U.S. remains in a sound growth and low-inflationary environment." Obviously, besides all his other problems, he cant read. Wall Streets and the Clinton administrations response is pitiful.

More important, despite these record-setting downturns, the stock market is still grossly overvalued. It has a long, long way to fall.

10-15 Diamond Offshore Drilling, worlds biggest, reported 3rd quarter earnings fell 65%. This was just in case anyone thought there was a recovery in the oil patch. OPEC has put up prices, but has not changed the market fundamentals. Which are that oil should trade at $7 a barrel.

10-15 First Union Bank reported 1st quarter operating earnings fell 21%. They are the U.S.s fifth-biggest bank. First Union is representative of the problems that are buried deep in the balance sheets of Americas banks. They have bought everything in sight. Their books are full of stock market bubble economy loans. Those loans will soon turn worthless. You can imagine why Greenspan is so concerned. Japan still hasnt dealt with all the bad loans its banks made during its bubble stock market. And its now over a decade later. Thats why these bubble stock markets are so devastating. They damage economies for years to come.

10-15 Sun Health Care, one of the giants in the business with 186 affiliates, filed for bankruptcy. The list of firms they owe money to is very interesting. Bank of America. General Electric Capital. Credit Lyonnais. Bank of New York. Bankers Trust. To name just a few. Wall Street seems to forget to report the companies that are doing really lousy. But remember, Wall Street is nothing but paid salesmen for stock. They make it appear that they give a balanced view. But their job is to sell stocks. Thats their business. This one fatal mistake -- of not understanding how Wall Street works -- will cost mutual fund investors trillions of dollars.

10-15 Drilling contractor Global Marine, another biggie in the industry, reported earnings dropped by over 67%. Revenue nearly fell in half. Way to go, oil patch. Wall Street was predicting that oil service companies would make a rapid recovery. Thats not going to happen.

10-15 Not only the U.S. is inflating. Canada reported its annual inflation rate climbed 2.6% in September alone. Thats a 30% annual rate. England reported its inflation is also climbing. Inflation is a global problem. It has far-reaching implications for the world economy. Especially since central banks are well behind the power curve in stamping out inflation. Wall Street is quick to ballyhoo increases in profits, no matter what larceny is committed to create those increased profits. They dont like to report downturns. And the media gives the downturns only limited coverage.

10-15 Caterpillar reported 3rd quarter earnings fell 35%. That was on an 8.9% drop in sales. I guarantee you, if Wall Street millionaires wanted to drive around Caterpillar bulldozers, they would have reported a great increase in profits. If only Caterpillar had diversified into consumer trinkets that catch the fancy of Wall Street insiders. Their profit story would have been a lot different.

10-15 Pacific Gas & Electric reported 3rd quarter earnings fell 13%. Yet operating revenues increased from $5.31 billion to $6.38 billion. A 20% increase. The decline took place because regulators have found a way to make their constituents happy. Just order utilities to decrease rates.

10-15 Sun Trust Bank sold its portfolio of personal credit cards for $1.5 billion. When banks shed their very profitable credit card business, its normally because some other problem is lurking in their portfolio. I cant wait to see what comes out here in the future.

10-15 The U.S. dollar got trounced today, as the stock market crashed. The dollar fell 1.75% against the yen and 2.3% against the Euro. Theres no way the dollar can stay strong. Remember, the trade deficit report is due out. It should show the biggest trade deficit ever. I say "should", because God only knows what fiction the Clinton administration will create. Especially with the stock market starting to tank.

10-15 Double Click, one of those Internet darlings, reported its loss widened from $4.7 million to $5.4 million. Thats on revenue going from $20.8 million to $44.9 million. Internet companies are a pathetic joke. They more they sell, the more they lose, and the more Wall Street peddles them. Few of them have business plans that are workable now or in the future. Theres little reason to believe they will even be in business in the future.

10-15 Cleveland Federal Reserve President Jerry Jordan urged banks and financial institutions in his district to set aside more money to prepare for a sharp downturn in stocks and financial assets. He followed Chairman Alan Greenspan in giving a Fed one-two punch. I have to tell you, folks. It doesnt get any better. Key bankers the world over -- including nearly the entire Fed -- are warning about the stock market wipeout, and its effects on financial institutions. This Wall Street party is over.

10-15 Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) reported 1st quarter profits fell 70%. Another former Wall Street darling, that is now in the dumpster. Every time I hear about the great earnings on Wall Street, I wonder what reports they are seeing. Im looking at a batch that -- even when they are up -- are not good once you dissect them. As the market goes lower, people are going to have to take out their pencil and calculator, and run the numbers. They will discover what generation after generation has found out. Wall Street has stampeded them into grossly overpaying for stocks.

Let me repeat. One of the great lies of this business is that you can make money paying outrageous prices for something, just because someone else will come along and pay you even more. It just dont work that way. The secret to making money on Wall Street is buying stocks when they are undervalued, and selling them when they are overvalued.

Stick around. Before long, Ill show you how to buy undervalued stocks

ww

-- wayne witcher (wwitcher@mvtel.net), October 16, 1999

Answers

What you dont realize, that greenspan does, is that there are (in august) 50 trillion interest rate derivitives. THEY are his biggest responsibility. HE knew before you did that the new financial religion of derivitives and endless debt was a bubble that is going to pop.

The other central banks are going to work with the US to make the transition as minimum as possible. However, the US will have some big dues to pay.

We are not falling off the planet. If you invested well, you are a fool to bail out during this time. After the washout, stocks WIll go up.

-- billburke (bburke@rocketmail.com), October 16, 1999.

You know, I was wondering. If inflation does hasten its trend upward, the current $ amount for any stock would eventually be =ed in inflated, less valueable $'s.

So, billburke, I guess the buy and hold till later concept could mean that you will not lose money, but the selling value could be much less in inflated dollars:-) ww

-- wayne witcher (wwitcher@mvtel.net), October 16, 1999.

I predict that after the hammer comes down, and it WILL come down soon, that having anything to do with financial paper with the possible exception of cash will be the last thing on people's minds!

JJ

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), October 16, 1999.

Bill,

I think you are correct. However this move resolves itself, the markets will not disappear and there will be another bull market. If you believe that, you would NOT be a fool to sell. In fact, you would be quite shrewd if you could sell and rebuy later at lower prices to take a share of the next bull market.

The aim of investing is to buy low, sell high, then rebuy low once again.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), October 16, 1999.

Amazing, if one is to read everything possible during their waking hours, he/she can find completely opposite "answers/senerios". If we are going down the tubes economically, which I have really no doubt about - after all, we're making "Rome" look like it was a picnic, how can the US Dollar be worth saving? Does anyone have an answer to this one? Gold? Why? It is controled just like everything else. I think the best any of us "little guys" can hope to do is be prepared with a very diversified portfolio. One of the biggest problems I have personally right now is the gut feeling that no matter your source of information, someone has an axe of their own to grind and evey individual should just trust in themselves and prepare to the best of their own ability. Appreciate your response.

-- Jane Hoyt (jbr@gtminet.net), October 16, 1999.

Jane,

I'm a "little guy" too - but, I have taken an interest in all this over the last 18 months or so - gradually I could see what was about to happen (we are in it now) and discern how the manipulation was going on and how the 401k crowd would pay the piper, fed as they are by the lying bastards on CNBC aka "bubblevision".

I'vebeen posting on gold and banking for some timenow. If you want answers go into the archives - their is a wealth of information from many sources.

Bottom line.

The makets willbe decimated - lkewise the dollar. When y2k hits we will have hyper-inflation assuming the banks stay up, which I doubt. Read the latest BIS report from the Swiss on that score. Read the last two Harry Scultz newsletters.

Your greenbaks will become useless. Protect what you have now with gold. You may have alreadyleft it too late if what i think may happen happens on Monday... i.e. Gold opens at over a +$75 up limit and the markets close.

suggest you go and lurk at www.usagold.com and read the archivesif you want to know what is ging on and how to protect yourself.

t is scary and pitiful that it ha come to this but many on this forum other than decker flint and hoff have seen this coming for along long time.

Time's up.

Good luck.

-- Andy (No6InTheVillage@webtv.com), October 16, 1999.

Andy the Idiot and his beloved Prudent Bear (BEARX)

Since inception (December 1995), Prudent Bear DOWN 18.92%

In the last year, Prudent Bear DOWN 42.81%

This compares to the category average of UP 16.92%...

and the S&P 500 UP 39.81%

In the last three months, Prudent Bear UP .24%

Expense ratio, a WHOPPING 2.36%

If you doubt the data, check into Charles Schwab's online research section. So, Andy, I have to conclude you were lying your ass off when you talked about making "several grand" in Prudent Bear. Unless you have already lost tens of thousands.

So, weasel boy, are international banking cartels falsifying the Prudent Bear returns? (laughter)

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

kenny baby

for an alleged economist you sure are as thick as two short planks...

i entered bearx at a nav of $3.90 or so per share with $66,000

that was not too long ago

it is now at $7.84 or so a share

and on monday and all next week a the markets collapse it will probably well srpass it's old high of $9.50 or so...

who's the dummy here?

have a nice day

oh, by gthe way, bearx is marginable so those figures are approaching $200,000 now...

-- Andy (No6InTheVillage@webtv.com), October 16, 1999.

Now Now boys, play nice:-0

-- well wisher (wishyou@werehere.com), October 16, 1999.

Thanks, ww. For a novice market watcher like me (NOT an investor- sucker) that article answered a few questions and made a lot of good points. I wonder how the lip-biter will blame this on the Republicans ---- fear because they failed to ratify the test ban treaty?

Even if the market bounces back, it is inescapable that profits based on speculation can't go on forever.

-- Jon Johnson (narnia4@usa.net), October 16, 1999.

Oh, sure, Andy, I believe you. You've been the doom and gloom poster boy for the length of this forum and you just happen to buy PB a few cents above its low? (laughter) Of course, you haven't addressed the fact that Prudent Bear underperformed the other funds in its category by a landslide and that the management fees are DOUBLE the category average. How about an apology to those original investors who lost over 40% while the S&P moved up nearly 40%? Oh, is this the same Prudent Bear currently at $4.83? (love your math)

Sure, the forum's head gold bug who thinks the economy sucks just happens to time the market perfectly. Where was your money before PB, Andy? Buried in mason jars? Or did you invest in those bad, old Fortune 1000 companies? (laughter)

How long have you held gold, Andy? We can do the charts on gold, too. How long have you been getting your ass kicked waiting for the international banking cabals to screw everything up? Is the the first bull market you've blown... or have you been investing awhile.

Now, run along and find an article someone else has written... and cut and paste it in response.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

Lest we forget:

Economists are NEVER wrong, just off the mark a bit !!

] If one can understand this thought, it may help in understanding Ken's mindset.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@tottacc.com), October 16, 1999.

I bought a lot of BEARX in August and I am doing very well. Something to be said for timing. Fighting the tape is suicide. This is a bear market and if I cannot adjust my thinking accordingly I should be out of the market.

Cashed some Dow Puts yesterday at the close. I might have made more by waiting until Monday but I have learned to never to second-guess a profit.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), October 16, 1999.

Someone stick a fork in Andy. I think he's done.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

I agree with the one poster that the USA will experience hyperinflation on products. I had come to that conclusion myself so strongly that a part of my preparations was a drip coffee maker in an unopened box as a back up, because I go through coffee makers like other people go through paper towels.

-- Paula (chowbabe@pacbell.net), October 16, 1999.

Ken and some other guy earlier seem to be of the breed that "The Stock Market Always Goes Up" crowd. Everything always goes up - and down. I never traded the stock market, but trading commodities has given me a view of things not many stock traders seem to have. I see Bull and Bear markets EVERYDAY, in almost every commodity, depending on the time frame. "Stock Traders" seem to feel they are on a "rightous road" or "Higher Path" because of their belief that stocks must go up. The fundamental "news" is almost immpossible to truly factor in most of the time. I am not privy to insider info, heads of nations or rich people talking about what they are going to do. I have no idea what a Mutual Fund kid manager is going to do either. The only way to see the markets is technically, except in RARE instances. If you are a technician, the future is usually very clear - at least how you deal with one or several scenarios is. That's what trading is about - profiting from WHATEVER scenario you have in front of you. It's not about being any old Joe Idiot who happened to put his money in something, and because the Whole Market has generally gone up, thinks he's a financial whiz.

Today we have the RAREST of RARE here. Not only is the Market in terrible trouble technically, but the fundamentals confirm it as well. It was clear several months ago the Market had topped.

Because of the design of the Stock Market by Wall Street, the Bull Markets are longer than Bear. I don't have a preference either way, but for those who can't see how stupid they are by believing the Myth of Wall Street, then please, keep your money in the Market. Never take it out. Even when the Dow hits 4000, don't take it out. Just continue to look at it as a "Buying Opportunity". Repeat back exactly what you've been told to say by the TV and your smart broker.

Decker -obviously to have gone short before the summer wouldn't have been a good move, why would you think Andy would short a Bull Market before that???

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), October 16, 1999.

"Reversion to Mean" crash (Super Cycle?) c/w dowside overshoot to ~3000 and recovery to ~5000, erasing "New Era" moral hazard: 67%

I think this scenario is most likely and I hope he's right.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 16, 1999.

Decker - your green eyed monster is rearing it's ugly haed pal- ha ha ha

i've gone on record many times as leaving my job a year ago to get my hads on my 401k

that's exactly what i did

moved from sfo to denver and rolled over $66k to the prudent bear eraly this year at $3.90

this gave me 16000 shares

at the time YOU told people who could see this debacle coming to stay in their 401k's - that to cash out wouldcost you %50

bull SHIT

i posted several times on your threads to say that you were wrong wrong wrong and i have proved it

i cashedout my 401k direct rollover 401k in bearx when it was worth $80k

i asked them not to withold tax - next year if there is an irs i will pay them the 20% plus 10% penalty... IF THERE IS AN IRS WHICH I DOUBT

in the meantime BOZO i putall the money straight back in to bearx through etrade because I could double up on margin

so now i have $160,000 doing very nicely

it's now worth $7.84 last time i looked and set to go far higher

i have been able to LEVERAGE my DOOMED 401k that was in fidelity magellan one year ago to a huge exent

along the way i have been buying and selling gold stocks and am heavily into physical gold and silver

watch what happens to these two in the next 9 weeks let alone the next few years

ddecker your obviousjealousy is very apparent to all who read this forum regulalrly and know your history

i have stuck to my guns and practised what i preach, like many other regulars who have done far far better than i by following similar strategies

oh yeah - most gold was bought at an average of $270-280

when thecabal wasdriving it down

I REPEATEDLY POSTED THIS AS A "BUYING OPPORTUNITY"

sorry double-decker

youhave got your ass kicked by me well and truly and you don't like it

tough luck

maybe in your next reincarnation you'll come back as a bra and be happy for once

KNOW-NOTHING MORON

-- Andy (No6InTheVillage@webtv.com), October 16, 1999.

Gregg, hindsight is 20/20. Andy has hated the economy, the Fed, the government, etc., for much longer than this summer.

Try not to cry, Andy. It's embarrassing.

Fact: Prudent Bear has double the management fees of other funds in its category. Rebuttal from Andy: Zero

Fact: Prudent Bear underperformed other funds in its category... by a country mile. Rebuttal from Andy: Zero.

Fact: Prudent Bear is down over 40 percent since inception: Rebuttal from Andy: Zero.

Fact: Prudent Bear is selling at under $5. Rebuttal from Andy: "The last time I checked."

Fact: When you withdraw money from your 401(k), you have to pay income taxes on the money. Rebuttal from Andy: Hey, there won't be a government next year.

Fact: When you withdraw your money from your 401(k), except in very special circumstances, you pay a 10% penalty. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

Fact" When you make profits on the money you withdrew from your 401 (k), you then pay capital gains taxes. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

Fact: Andy was advised people to max out credit cards to prepare for Y2K. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

Fact: Andy's 401(k) has to be held in trust by the wicked Federal Reserve-led financial system. Rebuttal from Andy: Huh?

Fact: Andy enjoyed market gains by investing in Fidelity Magellen... a nice mainstream stock fund invests in companies financed by the wicked international banking cabals. Hey, I guess principles don't apply when the profits are good. Rebuttal from Andy: Huh?

You're not bright enough to figure out when you're getting your ass kicked, Andy. You want this in a Candygram? (laughter) Anyone who wants to can check the data on Prudent Bear. Or you can take Andy's word that he's an investing genius. Your results may vary.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

Is Decker really posting those insults? I don't agreee with him too often, but I thought he might be a gentleman. As for Prudent Bear, it is a short fund which is expected to move inversely to the market. There are several such funds and any intelligent investor knows what they are and know how to use them for specific purposes. For example, they can be used in high risk by those who have large capital gains and do not want to sell their positions because of tax considerations.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), October 16, 1999.

Dave,

Yup. If you want to have a civilized conversation about contrarian investing, by all means. If you approach me in a civil manner, you'll find I respond in kind. As my my points on Prudent Bear, facts all. Check them if you wish. On the subject of Andy, he is one of the forum bullies. My attitude towards bullies is simple. I do not tolerate them. They push. I push back. Primitive perhaps, but I am "culturally disadvantaged" by my rural upbringing.

If you read the archives, you'll find I respond to civil questions, even those on preparation topics. While I agree with your assessment of the utility of a "bear" fund, I reject the outrageous management fees Prudent Bear charges. If you do some research, you can find some contrarian funds that are better managed, for less money.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

Gregg, hindsight is 20/20. Andy has hated the economy, the Fed, the government, etc., for much longer than this summer. Try not to cry, Andy. It's embarrassing.

###### I'm laughing all the way to the gold dealers :) #######

Fact: Prudent Bear has double the management fees of other funds in its category. Rebuttal from Andy: Zero

####### i could give a shit. they are performing wonderfully since i came in at the low of $3.90. slow but sure. up 26% in the last 3 months or so... :) #######

Fact: Prudent Bear underperformed other funds in its category... by a country mile. Rebuttal from Andy: Zero.

####### i don't want high risk funds, and you haven't named them so i can't comment. this fund is designed to make big money in a crash - period. i have been predicting a crash for ages. we are now in a crash numbnuts. so in the meantime this mangaed fund has not lost monet, it has been slow and steady upwards, very safely. david tice is brilliant. he is now long gold, has plenty of cash to move in quickly when he sees opportunity, and is shorting the market big time now. wath what happens next week... #######

Fact: Prudent Bear is down over 40 percent since inception: Rebuttal from Andy: Zero.

####### correct. thjose who entered at $9.50 are taking a beating. i didn't #######

Fact: Prudent Bear is selling at under $5. Rebuttal from Andy: "The last time I checked."

####### that was my mistake. i posted 7.84 instead of 4.84. fact is it's made me a fortune. i'm sorry but i regard this as safe money while i go about my business with gold and silver and other activities... #######

Fact: When you withdraw money from your 401(k), you have to pay income taxes on the money. Rebuttal from Andy: Hey, there won't be a government next year.

####### i paid no income taxes at all. therefore i have been able to leverage all that money to my advantage. i pay my taxes now. i will pay any capital gains next year if there is an irs. i repeat - next year i believe there will be no irs and there will be a flat and/or sales tax - witha tax amnesty for previous years #######

Fact: When you withdraw your money from your 401(k), except in very special circumstances, you pay a 10% penalty. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

###### I paid no 20% witholding or 10% penalty. these are payable next april. i have leveraged therefore $30,000, margined up to $60,000 in the prudent bear which has gone up from 3.90 to 4.90 x 16,000 shares doubled on margin = $32,000... #######

Fact" When you make profits on the money you withdrew from your 401 (k), you then pay capital gains taxes. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

####### we'll take care of that next year - prudent bear will way surpass it's high of $9.50 last year and my strategy will pay off handsomly - IF, bif IF, there is no IRS i pocket that money - actually much is already in gold/silver so I'm covering all bases... when they explode in price... #######

Fact: Andy was advised people to max out credit cards to prepare for Y2K. Rebuttal from Andy: See above.

###### yes i did. i have leveraged all my cards to the max and making profits hand ovr fist whilst still paying off my minimum monthly balance. is there a problem with this? it's all quite legal, as is my tax strategy and 401k strategy... #######

Fact: Andy's 401(k) has to be held in trust by the wicked Federal Reserve-led financial system. Rebuttal from Andy: Huh?

####### no it doesn't moron. by leaving your job you can roll over to a self directed ira which is exactly what i did. i did my homework on all the regulations and perfectly legally took control of MY retiremment money... #######

Fact: Andy enjoyed market gains by investing in Fidelity Magellen... a nice mainstream stock fund invests in companies financed by the wicked international banking cabals. Hey, I guess principles don't apply when the profits are good. Rebuttal from Andy: Huh?

####### i made about 30% a year for three years in magellan - a high risk fund. when the dow hit 8,500 i transferred all $66k i had to a money market fidelity fund earning 0% interest - i expected a market crash back then - it didn't happen - so i lost out on some profists. big deal, i slep soundly at night... #######

You're not bright enough to figure out when you're getting your ass kicked, Andy. You want this in a Candygram? (laughter) Anyone who wants to can check the data on Prudent Bear. Or you can take Andy's word that he's an investing genius. Your results may vary.

####### everything i said is true. i made a mistake with the cirrent sahre price. fact is i am way ahead of the game now. i took control of MY money. magellan made about 8% all this year i believe. it is currently tanking big time now and will do over the next few weeks' debacle... in contrast BEARX will make a killing, and I am primed to cash in on it.

Sorry ddecker my strategy has simply WORKED - and is paying off big time.

You have had your ass kicked and you are jealous and trying to make me look stupid. i have rebutted all your points and most sane people will see the logic in what i have done.

I bet you have your 401k tied up in some fund which is tanking as we speak.

That would explain your KNOW-NOTHING SOUR GRAPES....

face it ddecker you have fucked up, big time... :)

have a nice day, sucker #######

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 16, 1999.

Y'all need to drop the pissing contest. It sounds like you two should meet behind the woodshead or something...Christ, now I know why so many of the REAL 'ole timers' have bailed. As Diane would say

*Sigh*

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan@Yahoo.com), October 16, 1999.

Sorry, Billy, but Andy doesn't have the stones to meet me behind any woodshed. He's an internet, bully, nothing more.

Back to weasel boy... so, your fund is up a buck a share. Please note, I don't think for a second you actually bought the shares at $3.90. Twenty-six percent ain't bad, Andy, but hold your water. I've been averaging over 26% A YEAR for the past decade.

So, in summary... I'm right about the high management fees. I'm right about other funds performing better. Prudent Bear has lost money hand over fist since its inception... and you call Tice a genius. It's highway robbery to take double the normal fees for losing your backside. I'm right about the price... (I'm sure it was an honest mistake, Andy.) As of next year, we'll see if I'm right about the IRS still being in the business of collecting taxes. I am right about the penalties, income and capital gains taxes. You are just betting on the end of the IRS. Why don't you lay odds in Vegas, Andy... they'll give 10,000 to 1 the IRS will still be working next year. I'm right that your 401(k) has to be held in trust. A financial institution or broker has to be the trustee... even for a self-directed IRA. (I have several myself) All trustees are regulated by the U.S. government. So, how do you get the money from your 401(k) when civilization ends? (laughter) I was right about you being a doomer... for quite some time.

As for my investments... I took my profits in April-May of this year. I've been in short term T's waiting to buy back in. Frankly, Andy, it's a hobby left over from my days in economics. I'll be able to retire comfortably... and my needs are fairly mundane. If money was my driving force, I'd be making different career choices.

So, are you about surviving Y2K, Andy, or about getting rich?

Frankly, I don't care about you fixation with gold or how big your portfolio is. I'm just a little tired of your lame ideas and your playing fast and loose with the truth. Now, run along.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), October 16, 1999.

Someone previously posted:

"The aim of investing is to buy low, sell high, then rebuy low once again."

This is NOT INVESTING --- this is TRADING !!!

-- Bob Prange (boardreader@hotmail.com), October 16, 1999.

My God ddecker you are brain-dead.

Anyone reading this thread can see quite clearly how I have leveraged my money to the tune of $200,000 whilst protecting it at the same time.

BEARX is up a buck a share. It is designed to make money during a bear market and especially in a crash, which we will all see this week.

Come back to me next week with your wibbling and we'll see who is correct.

These are the current BEARX stats.

BEARX vs NASDAQ

During the last 3 months the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) has done 25 TIMES better than the once mighty NASDAQ. BEARX has appreciated 25.13% vs a meagre 0.95% of the NASDAQ.

However, before the year is out I estimate BEARX may well be up 50- 60%, while the NASDAQ gets hammered for a loss of -20% to -30%. In the mini-bear market in 1998, BEARX soared in value, ranking it the #1 Mutual Fund in the nation.

BEARX has 2 investment objectives: it sells common stock SHORT, and it buys gold shares LONG. The best of both worlds so to speak.

It is not too late to climb aboard. if you are on etrade you can margin it 50% after one month. However in one month the DOW and NASDAQ will be in tatters IMHO.

OK double decker? Are these the "facts" you wanted???

Link at

http://quote.bloomberg.com/gcenter/gcenter.cgi?iquote=BEARX&PERIOD=3M& equote1=&equote2=&equote3=&nasdaq=CCMP&T=markets_gcenter99.ht&x=40&y=6 One last thing numbnutz...

You are fooling no-one with your gubbmint shill attitude - you are simply alienating yourself as the paid agent provocateur that you are on this forum

and a bad one at that as we, the regulars, have all seen through you since day one...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Andy boy,

$200,000 is chicken feed where I come from. When you make more than pocket change, let us know.

-- (smitty@concentric.com), October 17, 1999.

Where do you come from - Mars?

To me, and most on this forum, $200k is a fortune.

Arrogant Wanker.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.