On this thread, he tells us (and this is from 10/06/1999, that

For the record. I've always said that we should expect the power grid to fail. Go back to June 1998, Training to Avoid Y2K Power Problems, http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/PP/RC/rc9826.htm

My point has always been that we can restart it manually and get the lights back on within 72 hours worst case. I haven't wavered on that in the past 14 months because my estimates never were based on the concept of Y2K readiness. They are based on how to keep things running despite malfunctioning equipment. If Dr. Altman believes that I think that things won't fail, he either never read much of my stuff or he chooses to misrepresent it.

I wasn't expecting him to continue to hold this opinion at this late date, but he does.

So, here's what our .gov has based the 'three day storm' advisory on?

This is important. I can see why we're being spun for no power outages, because even temporary widespread outages up to three days translates to complete and utter chaos.

Dare I conjure Mr. Mills to give us an idea as to the likely locales of the <72 hour outages? Please, sir. I desperately need to understand this. Thank you very much in advance...........

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999

Answers

Please, Sir.......

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Got a generator?

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), October 07, 1999.

Dear Lisa, I have nothing to offer your confusion except my own confusion. I thought by now I would know what is going on to some degree. Everyday my head is spinning with who knows what. I just keep preparing. It is scary because we have spent lots of time and money but what choice is there? I have kids, what am I supposed to do? The thing that gets me the most is that there is no one to ask. Like I wish I could go to my father or a minister or Dick Mills or Barbara Walters or Oprah or Dr. Laura or somebody. There are a very few people who have thought this through and that makes it even more confusing. NO BODY KNOWS. I am usually a moderate type of person, nothing to the extreme (except love) But with this it is impossible to be moderate. Moderate may not do the trick. Too much makes you a target. Not enough may kill you. I know I am whinning but I can't help it. This sucks. I know, I know I've learned alot and I am much smarter now and I can't depend on anyone but me but I don't wanna. I am freaked out today more than usual.

-- Messed up (crazy@home.com), October 07, 1999.

lisa, anyone who has tried to follow what the experts say about the potential problems that Y2K will bring, runs into 3 constants:

1) The experts say scary things (like the potential for the power grid to fail, or banks to default).

2) The experts disagree with each other as to how long such problems will last (and Dick Mills, who finds it perfectly feasible that the worst case scenario of a complete failure of the power grid could happen, nevertheless believes that it could be easily brought back up with no problem -- even though in practice this has never had to be done before).

3) The experts concede that they can only forecast within the range of their expertise. A coal-fired power plant needs coal, regardless of whether it is run manally or not, and if other events prevent coal delivery, the plant will not be able to produce.

In a nutshell, the advice that Dennis gave is pretty good: Get a generator. (And a lot of fuel. And a battery/inverter system.)

85 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 07, 1999.

Oh yes! The old fix it on failure syndrome. Fix the section that busted, put it on line...have another section go out, fix it put it on line, then another and another. Mr. Miles I do hope you have a set of hooks that will fit your feet (Actually..we use bucket trucks mostly now). And I do believe I"ll stayon vacation and miss that "gig" never did likethe thought of having an armed groundman for a helper.

`~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Shakey~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

-- Shakey (in_a_bunker@forty.feet), October 07, 1999.

Here's the archive of Powerful Prognostications.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Nice little tip at the end there Jack. It just happpens i am putting the finishing touches on the Generator,Inverter,Battery system myself. Diesel fuel is in storage for the long haul. Test run in less than one week.

-- kevin (innxxs@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999.

Expect the public to clamor loudly for answers...

And who knows what comes next?

The next logical step beyond loud shouting is...?

Keep your head down, a low profile and wait for the dust to settle.

(Low profile means be invisible. Don't fire up that generator. Don't cook food if the aroma can attract people. Don't use lights at night, except of course if they are in a safe area of your house where they cannot be seen from outside. Light proofing will require lots of duct tape. You will find that the tiniest hole emits what looks like a spotlight in these conditions. I'm not joking, try it and see for yourself.)

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 07, 1999.

Lisa & Messed Up: You have a tremendous advantage over a majority of our fellow Americans. At least you are aware of the possibilities and have taken some action to prepare. I have been able to convince my three grown children to prepare for their families and at least two of my three older brothers. One is still DGI. His attitude is if things get that bad life will not be worth living! Yes, the unknown always causes stress BUT remember you have some small ones looking to you for steadfastness and you must "stand and deliver". Will this alleviate your stress - NO! But remember you have plenty of empathic friends out here going thru the exact same thing. Hang in there!

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999.

Thanks, Neil, hangin' is the word.... I'm not new to this: been doing it for 20 months; I just wasn't aware that much threat still exists for power.

I, again, did not expect that Mr. Mills would consider Y2K-induced outages a possibility at this late date.

Although this certainly demonstrates that my city's decision to purchase $750,000 worth of generators last month for water/wastewater power backup may be based on the probability that electricity will fail.

Also explains why Texas' ERCOT Y2K coordinator did not try to spin me when I asked whether I should have alternative heating and cooking sources. He fairly recommended that I purchase such.

Oh, God, I'm so confused..........................................

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Thank you all for these posts. It is a problem when you are a person who doesn't want to have an advantage over other people. I want everyone be safe. I want everyone's children to be OK. I am not a competitive type. I don't know how to come to grips with this. I'm screwed. It would be easier if I was more of a fighter. Maybe this will kick in if it comes to pure survival of my kids. Please God, don't ever let it come to that, I don't know if I have what it takes.

-- Messed up (crazy@home.com), October 07, 1999.

Think about this, 5 years ago there were no Y2K experts.

Now there are lots of them. What University did they study and recieve their degree from? Does opening up a haor dryer and looking at chips make someone an "embedded" expert? Does gathering opinions and speculations from the websites of people who never touched a computer until 3 years ago when they suddenly got with the program and bought one so they could "go on line" make a person a Y2K expert?

Does forming an opinion and blindly sticking with that opinion while finding any and all bits of information that can be twisted into conforming with that opinion make someone an expert?

Is Paula Gorden an expert in embedded ships/systems? She knew nothing about the subject 5 years ago and still would not know what One looked like if her life depended on it. Do you consider her an expert? What about Dave Hall, they guy who who started the "embeddeded chip" started the "embedded chip" awareness with the speculation that billions of them in every area of life could fail due to Y2K. Is he a Y2K expert? If you say yes to that question, what makes you think he is an expert? His training? His experience? (he has neither).

You name who you consider an embedded expert, then explain why that person should be considered one. Justify what makes them an expert.

Name your Y2K expert and embedded expert and explain what makes them an expert.

And forget the "groups" like IEE (UK) and The Gardner group.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), October 07, 1999.

Cherri, are ~3 days with no power likely or no?

No_______   Yes__________

Has the threat to electrical power been eliminated in the US?

No_______   Yes__________

Do you have backup cooking and heating capacity?

No_______   Yes__________

How did you learn to spell all of a sudden?

Different polly using your handle________  Spellchecker_________

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Lisa,

What happens if no one can represent the nation (ie - news shows, polls, etc.)? Most of our information about how our fellow American feel and think about things is now through the media. The media will not survive to tell the tale in real time, so we will all be left literally 'in the dark' and thinking its 'just a local outage' when in fact it is everywhere.

If they can completely partition the grid and then restart their oil and coal powered rigs (figuring that nukes will be scrammed automaticly), then they will indeed shut down all industrial users, all office complexes, all 'non-essentials' in order to rotate the power around to residential neighborhoods. This calls for an aweful lot of coordination/communication. Maybe that is why NERC emphasized testing 'walkie talkie' testing???

It will be like a bomb went off and we are recovering from a war. People will be stunned and then become very angery and desperate.

Don't be near this when it happens.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), October 07, 1999.

This is indeed a scary thread. Me thinks whilst we wait for Cherri to fill in the blanks, and/or dIETER to arrive to rescue us all, it is time for some levity.

A Survival Guide for the Y2k Obsessed



-- Obsessed (one@of.them), October 07, 1999.

Lisa

Methinks you are misrepresenting Dick Mills' statements here.

Now, I don't know if Dick expects the power grid to fail or not. But if you actually read all of his articles, the point he has consistently been trying to make is that, even if it does, the lights will be back on in 72 hours, worst case. And he has spent quite a bit of time and effort explaining the details of this position, debunking quite a few of the power "myths" along the way.

Your comment about "this late date" shows me you don't understand what he is saying. As he states, his position was never, and is not, based on the concept of "Y2k Readiness". So the lateness of the date, and the "readiness" or lack thereof of the utilities, has no meaning for the point he is addressing.

What I believe he is saying, and what he in fact did say later in his post (which you omitted), is his problem with the industry was one of prioritization. That is, he feels the industry should have made contingency planning number one, and should have based those plans on a worst-case scenario of total failure. Number two should have been actually fixing the problems.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), October 07, 1999.

It has been my experience that power companies have always recommended alternate heating sources, as they can NEVER guarantee power dealivery. Why the big uproar because they are saying that now? How does it tie to y2k?

Jack Sprate needs to be fixed for constantly posting that flashing nonsense. y2k is not an "it" that "cannot be fixed". it is shorthand for year 2000, duh. A date. It will come and then go.

"y2k" is not an entity that needs an overhaul. It is also not a religious belief system. It is VERY unfortunate that it has become so to some individuals.

-- Blink This (you@blinking.blankety-blank), October 07, 1999.

Dear Cherri,

Very soon now you will be receiving a great surprise.

No, you didn't win a million bucks from Publisher's Clearinghouse.

No, you didn't bowl a perfect game.

No, you aren't the brightest star in the firmament.

No, you aren't going to win a fabulous trip to Tahiti.

You are going to get to know yourself a lot better.

You will be asking yourself questions and listening more carefully.

You are going to gain insight into your current motivations.

You will finally reconcile the confusion deep inside.

You will lose the argument with yourself.

-- above all (know@thyself.now), October 07, 1999.

Hoff: that's why I'm trying to summon him: does he expect failures?

If there's been a private FOF agreement 'twixt utilities and .gov where fix-on-failure is OK as long (as opposed to expensive assessment, remediation, testing, etc.) as outages =< 3 days, I want to know this.

Don't you? (BTW, you see all the VA '3's in the Navy report??? In the R column?)

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Agree with Hoff's reading of Mills. But it doesn't change Mills' statement about his expectations of it going down, either, which remains quite a surprising bit of a drag to me as well as Lisa. And his opinion that local, regional or national grid restart is a three- day proposition is just that, his.

Got all that?

So, do we know what will happen with the utilities? Nope. We're not ALL that much farther along than we were a year ago, except that total grid collapse seems unlikely.

Apparently, the pollies want to go 3 days to 'x' without power, should it happen, without preps. Fine. We're prepped and peaceful, though furious as can be at NERC for their arrogance.

Regrettably, there isn't enough room in our home for the pollies who didn't prep. For them, the shelters and warming centers should do just fine. Heck, they'll only be there "three days".

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 07, 1999.

Ok, Cherri, lets go with your basic conjecture: "There are no Y2K experts." So, here we have something that potentially could sink our power, communications, food supply, banking system, etc., etc., ... yet there is NOBODY that has the expertise needed to bail us out.


-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 07, 1999.

{shaking head} "have the pessimists taken some kind of new drug to make them MORE gloomy?"

This thread sure is silly.

Hey Bigdog, I sure am glad YOU weren't the boy who had a lunch of 5 loaves and a fish to offer, some 2,000 years ago. Your response might have been "Regrettably, there isn't enough room in our home for the pollies who didn't prep."

Why would a guy who is supposed to have taken seminary and all that even say such a selfish thing?

Are you saying you will turn away those in need IF something happens? What kind of Christian attitude is that?

Just imagine if, long ago, a small boy had said "they don't need this small lunch. Who will it feed? I brought for me, and these others should have thought ahead and prepared for themselves!"

Does that make you think, or are you entrenched in your ways?

-- Bible Thumper (Jesus@is.God), October 07, 1999.

LEAVE JACK SPRATE ALONE, I LIKE HIS BLINKING LIGHT THAT SAYS

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- keep it blinking (keepitblinking@keepitblinkingg.xcom), October 07, 1999.

Bible Thumper, you owe BigDog a huge apology.

He was referencing the anti-prep pollies on this forum.

Haven't met him, but I'm sure he'll be helping anyone that he can, if they need it.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Bible Thumper,

May I suggest that you visit our Sister Perparation Forum, where BigDog is a sysop, before you jump on his Christian attitude. He is doing more to help others that just about anyone else that I can think of.

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999.

Lisa,

Sorry for the delay but I do have a real job. 

No Utility will guarantee you power at any time. There is such a thing called guaranteed power offered to industrial customers but it actually has to do with rates, i.e. its not an actual guarantee of power

Its obvious that the grid can go down. All you have to do is look at what happen in Virginia last year and in New England. You can also go to the WSCCs site and look at reports for various past widespread outages. There are other sites but I like the WSCCs the best.

But the outages are of a different type. The first is one that is caused by physical damage. If a car hits a pole that has the transformer on it that feeds you house, you are going in the dark. Thats why no company will guarantee you power. Usually you are brought back in a few hours or if the damage is wide spread a few days or longer. As Ive said many times before I have friends who live in the country who have generators. They didnt buy them because of Y2K they brought them because ice storms in the past have put them out of power for up to five days. The second type of outage is usually a screw up. Thats what happen in SF earlier this year and in other places. But its one thing to go from that to thinking the grid will go down for a long period of time.

If you read Dicks statement he is big on contingency plans. I dont know if all Utilities have them but I would be surprised if any of the big ones didnt. We do. All our stations have SOOs. Standing Operating Orders. Dicks main point was that it can be run manually and brought back from the black. No matter what causes that black. If the damage is physical itll will be a longer time. If its just a screw up it will be a shorter time.

The problem with a lot of people who write the doom and gloom messages is they dont know how it works and more importantly how it doesnt work. Many of the Y2k writers has said that the grid cant be manually run because it was automated back in the 50s and all the people who knew how to do it were fired or let go. Thats wrong. And not a little wrong but completely wrong. Most of the people who post about SCADA, embedded systems, etc. havent a clue as to what the hell they are talking about.

As to where the 72 hours comes from? I dont know. Maybe its based on some statistics of past outages. If you reread it youll see where he said 72 hours at the outside. I think Dicks point was that any system in the country could be brought back in that time. Most would probably be a lot less. But some, such as TVA or AEP cover large areas and have lots of stations spread out over a lot of land. Its probably a good rule of thumb as any. As to where the outages (IF ANY) may occur. I dont think anyone knows that. I was talking to a friend from Texas last week who works for TU. She said that last January they had a big storm on the first with over 100 trips in one hour. One thing they were saying that if it happens next January people will be going around saying it s Y2K. You might not have any Y2K problems but still have weather problems.

The most important thing that Dick said is: Being Y2K ready is not the point. Keeping the lights on is.

Thats our job. Dont compare IT to keeping the lights on. We dont let our IT people have anything to do with the equipment we buy or how we run it. They buy laptops. We buy Instrument Controllers. Same thing but it keeps it out of their hands. We dont let them configure them, load software or control what software we buy. They dont tell us what relays to buy, what SCADA to run or what TT to use, what DFRs to buy or software to use on it. They run the network that sends this email to TB. They dont run the RAS system. They dont buy the RAS system. They dont program the RAS system. Our PLCs are programmed by our people. Not the IT people. They dont keep the lights on. We do that.

People write about embedded systems but have yet to say where they are on the grid or what they do. Just somewhere, everywhere, dont know where, dont know what, just know they are there and are all going to fail. But they dont keep the lights on. We do.

Lisa, we always expect failure. Thats why we have two sets of relays, and a set of bus relays and the other end relays have long zone 3s. Thats why we have two sets of trip coils in our breakers and redundant microwave paths. We have back ups to the back ups, and alarm systems, that tell us when things are starting to fail. Thats why it takes three years to become an operator or electrician or technician. And you are tested every six months and if you fail a test twice in a row they find something else for you to do. Thats why we put classes on every year to train and retrain our people. Thats why our people walk around with pagers and why the Dispatchers have their home numbers, pager numbers, cell phone numbers.

Jack, KOS, etc. may all be Y2K experts. We arent. They may know everything there is to know about Y2K. We dont. But they dont keep the lights on.

We do that.

And thats the point.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), October 07, 1999.

I like Jack's blinking y2k sign also. It kind of fits in with KoS's mudwrestling -- let's me know I'm on the right forum.

Big dog, you may have made a bad assumption here. That three day storm model was once stated as "how long it will take to get you to a shelter", not how long you stay in a shelter. This notion that we only had to prepare long enough to be saved was one of the most illuminating statements made by a broomer. I wish I could remember who said it.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), October 07, 1999.

Lisa,

My spelling always gets bad when I'm tired. What has that got to do with what my questions? bwsides changing the subject because

1. You have no answer

2. You figured out the answer and did not like what you saw so you had to change the subject.

ZWho is a Y2K expert and what makes them one?

And my favorite subject, who is an embedded chip/system expert and what makes them one?

Just list the individuals you consider "embedded" experts and we can go from there....

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), October 07, 1999.

Eng: thanks, guy.

Hey, I'm not too worried about my power going out, really. Probably be out stalking bass, anyway, what with having the day off.

What I'm curious about is whether large-scale, widespread outages across the nation are conceivable, even if only in the short-term (<72hours). If this is likely, I have huge adjustments to make to my Y2K model.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

One question for Engineer:

I know nothing about embedded systems. I'm an IT person and wholeheartedly agree with your assessment about not letting them touch anything, cause we as a group always screw stuff up. My question about the electrical employees and engineers, etc. being able to respond to Y2K type problems so quickly - what about the whole common mode failure aspect? There may be experience in weather/physical incidents - they usually last only hours or a day at the most because there is so much experience in replacing downed poles/lines/etc. Also, the second point about screw ups - if something was screwed up then usually you know where it is as well as when how why, etc. You get a replacement part and you're off and running (greatly simplified). But in Y2K, I'm assuming your spare parts are also "infected" - common mode failure. I guess your point of view is that you will bypass (go manual) those aspects of power production or transmission that failed due to Y2K. You certainly can't fix it to spec in 3 days. If bypassing the problematic areas is what you intended, I guess I can buy that (as I know nothing), as long as the power industry really believes that FOF, no not really Fix on Failure, but workaround or bypass on failure. If they truly can do that let us know.

As a side note, is the power industry obligated to provide their service. Like if the pizza parlor on the corner wants to close, or even if L.L. Bean or virtually any company wants to close, they can. If XYZ power company decides one day (I know this is purely hypothetical), if they decide (nothing at all to do with Y2K) they want to just shut down, can they? Or do they have some kind of legal obligation to provide service. I would assume that they could shut down, because some other provider would step into the market to take over the demand. Any comments?

-- Jim (x@x.x), October 07, 1999.

Cherri, you better watch out or I'm gonna whip out that beautiful post you made a while back and ruin your reputation as a mean-ass polly.

Notice, idiot, that I attempted to "polly-balance" the thread by summoning The Engineer as well as Mr. Mills.

I ain't looking for doom. I simply want to know if widescale outages really are a possibility.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 07, 1999.

Jack Sprat,

Could you e-mail me privately about your gen-set setup? I have something similar and I'm having trouble.

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999.

Lisa,

If you mean possible as in theoretically possible as in the chance of it occurring is not equal to zero. Then the answer is yes. But then the answer is yes now, tomorrow, the day after, next January, June 2005, etc. If you mean realistically possible then the answer is no. You couldnt have a cascading outage that would start in New York and end in California. It would have to be some sort of simultaneous failure and the equipment is too different to give that much of a possibility. Or some sort of interlocking failures that build on one another but arent related.

Cars are recalled but not all cars are recalled nor all makes of cars nor all models nor all years. What you are thinking about would be the equivalent to all cars being recalled at the same time.

Jim,

First there arent that many embedded systems out there. One of the Y2K myths is that everything has a chip in it, blah, blah, blah. Aint true. Very little stuff does. Even less critical stuff. Even less has a y2k problem. Very little in the power business is date and time dependant. Nice to have, but not critical for actually running the system. Timing is important, very important. But time and timing are not the same thing. Also the equipment was installed over a great period of time. Its no exaggeration to say that there is a lot more equipment out there over 40 years old then less then 10. Not much chips in them. People didnt even start putting chip based equipment in stations until the early to mid 1980s. There wasnt a wholesale rip and replace program. So you can have something very modern sharing a panel with a 40 year old electromechanical relay. Its not just poles and lines. You have to allow for transformers (and I mean big ones about the size of garages) blowing up, catching fire, and melting down. It doesnt happen often but it does happen. You cant build a system where one failure of that type takes the system down or even puts people in the dark for any extended period of time.

It depends what you mean by infected. I knew of one Y2k problem (negative time) that a SCADA had ( if it hadnt been modified to be Y2k compliant). But it wasnt really a problem because to get around it all you had to do was reboot (about three minutes). So it was a problem, the problem was fixed, but even if it hadnt been, it wouldnt have been a problem. And yes the system can run just fine with SCADA off line for three minutes.

Yes it can be run manually. In a lot of places it still has to be. The idea that everything is automated is a myth that comes from Internet blather. Things like the AGC can all be run manually.

Legal obligation? I think so under the state(s) PUC board. I dont think any power company could close up shop and walk away. Many states even have laws where you cant shut the power off to a persons house in the winter for nonpayment of bills. If its small enough they could sell out to someone else. But I cant really imagine anyone just turning all of the handles to open and walking out the door. I think they would find themselves in one hell of lawsuit and in jail and not necessarily in that order. Most power companies are still regulated monopolies. Even in places where its been deregulated by California they still answer to the state.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), October 07, 1999.

Bible Thumper --

I may well give away my Y2K loaves and fishes, a few of them, some of them, all of them, if my Master gives the command. He is alive and He is my Y2K project manager.

But you may note, since you are an expert on the scriptures, that the Lord did not "help" the Pharisees, Sadduccees, lawyers and scribes, as the twentieth-century social reformer thinks of "help" but rebuked them as snakes whose destiny was hell. IOW, He saw through them to their core motivation. Their responsibility before Jesus Christ was repentance. Period.

I am NOT saying that pollies are snakes! But I am saying that there is no inherent biblical responsibility to "help" those who have received the "testimony" of others repeatedly and refused to take responsible action themselves. One "may" help them, but there is no Christian obligation to do so before God.

Good luck and watch out that you don't thump yourself accidentally.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 07, 1999.

David, I suspect that I would not be much help if you have used the conventional approach of connecting certain of your circuits to your inverter, especially if the batteries are directly charged by your generator. I took the very simple minded (and cheaper) approach of having mine be a completely standalone unit: the batteries are charged from a wall outlet in my house (utility power or generator power, it does not matter), and the inverter has outlets from which I can plug in extension cords to then be able to run light loads such as lights, TV, etc. See http://209.52.183.182/Generators/systems.htm for examples of this type of standalone approach.

Meanwhile, with only 85 days to go, the debate still rages about Y2K and power and what the experts (or lack of them) have to say. The bottom line is still the same as always: 1) Nobody knows; 2) You pays you money and you takes you chances.

Make no mistake about it, the Y2K Problem (to clarify) cannot and will not be fixed -- the work started too late, it will not finish in time. What nobody knows is what the effect will be -- and, indeed, for all I or anyone else knows, it could be relatively innocuous, the proverbial Bump In The Road. Or we could end up in deep yogurt. Certainly, if there are power interruptions of any significant duration, especially in major cities, it would be disasterous. As always, one must consider the usual odds versus the stakes when evaluating what course of action to take for one's own family.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 07, 1999.

I'm SO happy I'm not in a lifeboat with Thumper. I don't swim so well, and I kinda prefer to look upon myself and my preps as the same as the 5 Virgins who brought extra oil. They did NOT share, and the Lord's story suggests that this was the apropriate and correct behaviour.

Night Train

-- jes an ol footballer who been thumped by his mamma's Bible a time or two (nighttr@in.lane), October 08, 1999.

An ah HAVE met Big Dog, and broken bread with him and enjoyed the pleasure of his roof, company, and table and a more Godly man Ah may have met but ah'd have to think a spell to come up with a name.

Night Train

-- jes a tired ol footballer (nighttr@in.lane), October 08, 1999.

Lisa escribe, "ven aqui, por favor".

Lisa, gracias por poner este correo electronico aqui. Que triste que no puedas entender las palabras sencillas escritas por Dick Mills.

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), October 08, 1999.

Hay! Casi se me olvido decir, "Rey de Espana, que beses mi cula"

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), October 08, 1999.

Lisa,

The reason you're "confused" and "messed up" (your own words, not a slam) is that the self declared "experts" are not in agreement as to what will happen. At least you're still thinking critically re: everything you hear, unlike most people who only listen to the voices that affirm the outcome they are "wishing" for.

The only rational thing to do in this situation is to prepare for the unknown and even the unexpected. (It sounds like you began your preparations a long time ago, so your thinking on this is probably way ahead of my thinking.)

Take solace in the fact that you are prepared for "whatever" happens, regardless of which "expert" turns out to be correct in their predictions.

I didn't gain any peace of mind re: Y2K until I decided that there was no amount of information and analysis that would lead me to a correct prediction.

It's still fun to read people's speculations on what will happen, and our family is now am prepared for a multitude of scenarios.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

-- Big Sky (Big Sky@Boulder.CO), October 08, 1999.

Thanks, Big Sky. Yeah, I'm prepared for both a 4 and an 8.

Dave Lundsford over at Westergaard is twitching like me, too.

"In college I made an effort to get straight A's, but it never happened. My parents would have been nuts to assure their friends that it almost certainly was going to happen. The key word in the above statement was "prolonged," did you catch it? How long is prolonged? Is it one year? Twenty years? Certainly prolonged does not imply four to seven days. That's what FEMA and the Red Cross is recommending you prepare yourself for in the event of power outages and they too do not believe in a prolonged nationwide outage. What no government official is saying is that a nationwide blackout for 4-7 days can very well be the beginning of the worst case scenarios no one believes or wants to think is possible."

Guess he doesn't want to hear about the possibility of large outages at this late date, either.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), October 08, 1999.

and all you pessimists were saying....uh.....what was that again?

-- Ion (spinning@round.and down), January 03, 2000.