[originally posted at TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Preparation Forum]

Have looked in the TBY2K archives, but haven't seen anything quite like what I am pondering tonight...

The scenario... The clock strikes, the lights go out, and we begin the New Year. The gov't, as usual, is behind in the game and is not prepared to take care of those people it told "don't worry, be happy". As daylight approaches, homes are getting uncomfortably cool, and there have been no sightings of "officials" to tell the sheep what to do. A (local) leadership vacuum is developing... (the national leadership has been bye bye for a long time).

Possibilities that affect our little scenario... All of the sheep believed the spin, and their cupboards are bare as Mother Hubbard's. Or some of the sheep did GI and did something about it. Maybe many of the sheep were rams in disguise, but didn't want to tip their hand - most who GI realize the downside of publicity.

Where Im coming from... As an active member of our Neighborhood Association, I have tried in vain to spread the word, without tipping my hand. In a nutshell, my nudges towards preparation would appear to have fallen on deaf ears, as I know of no one else in the neighborhood who GI. Even my spouse DGI, although she has been very tolerant of my preps (maybe she is only DGI on the outside, and is too terrified to admit to herself what she really feels).

As the days count down, my thoughts turn to community type preps for that day when *everyone* will finally see the light, or darkness as it were. Most of the discussion Ive seen so far is directed towards organizing beforehand. Great if you can make it happen. The reality is that complacency rules, and for most, 1/1/00 will be "just another day". Any suggestions on how to prepare for this void after the fact?

As I see it, even though Ive prepped, how the rest of society handles this event is still a big player in "my" final outcome. For my situation, flight is not an alternative, so fight is my only option. Although the rest of the neighborhood would appear to be DGI, I still think it will have to pull together to get through this. So I see this work as another one of my preps - doing what I can to set some direction after everyone realizes Houston, we have a problem...

I am trying to think of things I can do to prepare for neighborhood organization efforts that might be possible after TSHTF. An example would be to print a supply of the some of handouts from www.justpeace.org (such as for water purification) or others dealing with disaster survival (simple solar ovens, heating tips and cautions, etc.) Maybe I should devote some thought to ways to secure the neighborhood... Access to our area can basically be controlled at two points, and I have access to our computer database of resident information from our annual census. Maybe I should draw up plans to organize guards at the entrances, and pre-print access cards for everyone in the neighborhood?

Of course, arriving on the scene so prepared could be the ultimate in showing your cards, and a decision to do so will have to be balanced against the risks of such exposure and the climate at the time. But even if such plans are prepared, a decision to remain low can still be made at that time. However, should an opportunity arise that such preps would be of value, now is the time to make them.

Am I getting way off base here? Has anyone else thought about this type of post-event planning?

Thanks!

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999

(originally posted at TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Preparation Forum (http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a.tcl?topic=TimeBomb%202000%20%28Y2000%29%20Preparation%20Forum)

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999

Answers

I don't see post-y2k organizing doing much good at all. That's like saying a trailer park with now way of heating the individual units, no way of getting clean water or provifding sanitation, and eac unit haveng MAYBE two weks of food at the tope end, has a better chance of making it through the winter, if "they all work together." I ask, Work together to do what? it's freezing, and everybody is in shock, not only that but probbaly a bit PO'ed at the world in general. My contention is, if y2k is bad enough that you had to prepare for it, then it stands to reason that those who didn't will eiterh die, or be very uncomfortable, otherwise why prepare? so, if x number of unprepared people added together do not produce ANY prepared people, what will they do? well, logically, when they realize that they don't have enough of y commodity to survive (heat, food, water, shelter etc) they will need to get more, right? from whom? well, #1 target will be any places where they can get it for free (looting stores beging form FEMA etc) #2 will be preparers that they know of (YOU) and #3 will be whatever they can find (rats and shoeleather). Now I believe a community composed of PREPARED people could fare quite well after y2k, just show me one. But, a community of UNPREPARED people is just SOL period. Now, I could be worng about the severity of y2k, but why bet that FEMA and the "magic of disaster response and community spirit" will save the majority of us? If "community spirit" existed, we would already HAVE prepared communities. We don't. conclusion.... Get out of dodge bub, it ain't gonna be pretty.

-- Jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999.

Jeremiah,

With all due respect, this forum is about rebuilding. If you don't think rebuilding is possible, why would you even bother reading or posting here?

Eyell

I've thought about this, but I haven't yet put the whole thing down as a solid plan yet. These are just a few things off the top of my head.

I'm assuming that the fact that you are even considering working with your community, means that you have reason to believe that the "raw material" is there, to work with. I think the first thing to do, is to find out just who knows how to do what, and just as important, who is WILLING to do what. Some people will have useful skills. The rest will be relegated to "grunt" work and guard duty. Then figure out a way to devide the labor.

Assuming you are the only GI, in your neighborhood, you'll be the natural leader, like it or not, at first. Frankly, I hope I'm not the only GI in mine, because the leader in this situation will have to make unpleasant decisions like allocation of resources and deciding who isn't pulling their weight and what consequences that might entail. I'd work as quickly as possible to get together a leadership council. Trying to be the sole ruler could get a person in a world of trouble, if not outright killed. There's safety in numbers and yes, even DGIs sometime own guns.

Resource allocation will be the real sticky part. Assuming no one else has a lot of resources, you will be trading some of your stores in return for the greater security you will have not being at odds with your community, during a time when there is not likely to be much available in the way of law enforcement to assist you, should all your neighbors decide to gang up on you (sort of like protection money...). My wife and I have bought HEAVILY on the cheaper foods, like bulk rice and beans, for just this purpose. Your neighbors can't live well, on just beans and rice, but they can live on it.

The leadership part is the key to the whole workability of neighborhood action. If that part falters, then not much good is likely to come of it.

I know this is a little disjointed, but this is the first time I've "put pen to paper", so to speak, on this issue.

This part might sound a little machievallian, but I would let a little time go by, before you begin organizing. People will be heavily in denial at first, and will probably be quite argumentative and will call you a loon, if you start talking about organizing the community right away. They'll be assuming that any minute, the power will be back on. Let it sink in a little, that this is no fooling around and I think they'll be a little more willing to listen to reason. How long depends on the temperature. If it's real cold, then 24 hours would be a long time to be without heat. If it's mild, I'd guess about three days.

And, oh yeah...just in case the Jeremiahs of the world are right, have a well stocked bug-out bag ready...

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), October 01, 1999.

I do think rebuilding is possible, just not in places like Beirut, Detroit etc. any GIs' efforts will be wasted in a place like that, in order to be of any assistance whatsoever, you first have to get out of where the y2k effects will be the worst. Sorry if I come across as an ass, but I have heard every excuse in the world for "why I can't leave" and they are 99% taurus feces. a bit of friendly advice, you are much more useful in a lifeboat, than playing a fiddle in the grand ballroom when the titanic is going down.

-- Jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 02, 1999.

Hi....our bugout location, from southern CT, is in southern Vermont, where my parents live. I was going to rent a U-haul to pile our stuff in and make a run for it if conditions warrented. We are well prepared to stay put, but how do you know when it is time to "abandon ship"? Thanx

-- thomas saul (thomasaul@webtv.net), October 02, 1999.

Jeremiah,

Yes, but you will not likely know you're on a sinking ship, till it starts to go down.

I reject the notion that the country is automatically the best place to be. There's going to be hungry DGIs with guns out there, as well (I know, because I'm related to a bunch of them). In rural areas, the problem will simply be delayed, by the fact that country people seem to have a natural tendency to always have a little bit in the way of stockpiles, anyway. When those limited stockpiles run out, the dangers will be just as great in the country, as they are, in the city. Possibly more so, because of the vaster distances between neighbors, and the lessened chances of anyone being close enough to assist you, before you are stone cold dead.

Your best bet is to stay with the people you know, unless you already know them all to be violent sociopaths. This holds true for inner city, suburb or rural. You do not want to be in a situation where everyone is a stranger, unless you simly have no viable alternative. Evaluate the people who live around you, carefully. Don't just focus on the few who may be troublesome, but look at the overall character of your neighborhood. Have there been other, lesser disasters, in your neighborhood? How did people react then? It's not an absolute predictor, but it gives you some idea. Have you had a power outage lasting several days? If so, did people immediately start exploiting the situation, or did they keep their cool? If they started in with looting and other crimes, as soon as the lights went out, then I'd say yes, get the hell outta Dodge. But if they maintained ther calm, then I'd say your better odds are with staying put.

There are a few common fallacies that impact this argument (IMHO, of course):

1)Only GIs have guns. NO way. Look at the recent upsurge in firearm sales. This has to do more with impending gun legislation, than it has to do with any increased Y2K awareness. There's going to be zillions of armed, hungry people out there.

2)All people "de-evolve" at a constant, predictible rate, in a crisis. Look at other disasters. There's absolutely NO evidence to support this. In all disasters, some go crazy, some look for ways to help out, and some just quietly sit and wait for death to overtake them. You have to identify the people in the middle group and quickly ally yourself with them and then decide what you need to do about the other two.

3)You can predict if someone is a "useless eater" by the job they hold. Many people have skills developed from off hours hobbies. Just because someone pushes paper for a living and drives an SUV (i.e. a "yuppie"), does not mean they don't have skills in construction, electronics, plumbing, gardening, etc. I live in a neighborhood full of "yuppies", yet every evening and weekend, I see people out involved in household maintenance and improvement projects, or working in their gardens.

4)(My personal favorite) Just I and my family, with a couple of firearms can stand alone against a hungry, hostile and well armed (See #1) world. I call this, the "Hollywood Syndrome". It's the result of viewing too many cowboy and Mad Max movies. It may sound corny, but we will stand united or fall devided. You can't possibly shoot fast enough, if you are alone facing a mob.

5) I can do something obnoxious, like buy up dog food to feed my DGI neighbors and live to tell about it. I can't think of anything that would turn yuppies into cold-blooded killers, faster. The rule here is: If you can't do anything nice, don't do anything at all. In a crisis, "Neener-neenerism" kills.

(#5 hasn't come up in this conversation, but it's shown up in other threads, over in TB2000, so much lately, that I just had to throw it in.)

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), October 02, 1999.

I agree with you on 1 thru 3,a dn on 4 and 5 with reservations, I don't think ALL yuppies are automatically useless, just that I won't have the luxury of combing th good from the dumb.

-- Jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 02, 1999.

I agree with you on 1 thru 3, and on 4 and 5 with reservations, I don't think ALL yuppies are automatically useless, just that I won't have the luxury of combing th good from the dumb. "ok, break up intotwo groups of 200, ok now who had a skilled trades job, raise hands? ok, you you and you eh? Any electricians? let's see we got five, how many years experience? ooh you got 35? wow, but how many kids? 3, with spouses and grandkids in tow? uh, how about you then? oh you're single? did a tour in the military? Ok, we'll take you, and that plumber guy, and the EMT, teh other 380 go starve somewhere else, thank you for your cooperation."

I don't think that will work out very well. Also, I don't have any hollywood delusions about my own survival chances, I'm hoping against hope that the authorities won't be overwhelmed, and that it WON'T be every man for himself, because if it is, I know that even if I DO live by killing off somebody else, not only did I kill him, but probably his family too. They were probably depending on him to get food from me. doesn't fill me with any joy, but that doesn't mean that it won't happen. As far as feeding the neighbors goes, I have set aside beans and rice for them on the assumption that the "basic" food that I have will be spplemented by whatever tehy could lay their hands on at the last minute, if I could afford $200 worth of canned goods per family on my block, i would buy it, but all I could fford was $50 worth of bulk, sorry, but that's all. If they have any complaints, well i guess they'll be SOL, i'm not the redcross after all, but i'll do my best.

-- Jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 02, 1999.

Jeremiah,

Re-reading my last post, I realize that it sounded like I was leveling the charges of the 5 fallacies specifically at you. Sorry about that. It was meant as a more general observation about this forum and TB2000, and not targeted at any one individual.

Actually, it sounds like we are, if not on the same page, on pages that are at least very similar.

In regards to the first paragraph, of your last post - this is why I would want to get together some sort of governing council, as soon as possible. I wouldn't throw out the ones with no identifiable skills, but I would make it clear to them that everyone who expects to share in the bounty, has to contribute something. Either they have to learn new skills, in a hurry, or accept the role of "grunt" workers. You're right, it will be difficult, but better than any alternative that I can see.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), October 02, 1999.

Bokonon -

Thanks for the suggestions. Yes, I think the "raw materials" are here, just DGI for now. I tried to "sneak" a skills survey into our annual census last month, but the results were disappointing, with almost no responses. As to whether or not I am the only GI, 'tis hard to know at this time. If most are like me, they won't be advertising the fact. I too planned to "monitor" the situation before speaking up. In this situation, I thinking timing will be very important - speaking up too soon or too late both have their consequences. Thankfully, we live in a good area with very little trouble, and although we are a suburb of a larger metro area, we are secluded. I do believe there are better places we could probably go, but I also think there are much worse. I like the 5 common fallacies, 5 was a new one to me. Yes, in my situation, sticking near those I know is IMO my best option. I also agree that in order for this to work, our neighborhood must stand united.

Jeremiah -

From your first post I get the feeling that you percieve your situation to be worse than mine. I do think we have good community spirit in my area, it is just going in the wrong direction - the spin doctors have done too good of a job. If I were in Detroit, LA, or any of the other concrete wastelands, my thoughts would undoubtedly be different.

I appreciate your perspectives as well, and can tell that you have thought things through. You make good points about how well "picking a team" will go over, and the consequences of taking a family's provider away. Definately things I must keep in mind.

Thanks to you both for responding. You have given me things to think about. If anyone else is reading, please join in! I am trying to think through all the possibilities (bump in the road to TEOTWAWKI) and be as prepared as I can for them. I do think a leadership vacuum will exist if there is anything more than minor problems, and without a stabilizing influence things could go towards the proverbial crapper very easily. The ability to keep people thinking and working together will be very important in making it through this, at least for those of us who choose fight instead of flight. And the more prepared I can be to try and facilitate the spirit of cooperation when it is needed, the better off I think my chances are as well. Thanks for the comments.

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 02, 1999.

Don't discount local militia organizations, particularly in rural areas. Ours is not "skin head" "Christian whatever" or anti-semetic or racially biased. It follows the original founding concepts of community defense without a standing army.

Although they have maintained a low profile for a few years, many militias are alive and well. Should trouble befall our area, I would imagine they already have decided what needs to be done and have the trained leadership in place to organize it.

Our particular area has many many WWII, Nam and Gulf War veterans. I have heard that they already have plans in place to defend the valley from urban refugees. It shouldn't be hard when there are only a handful of mountain passes that go in or out.

-- anon (anon@anon.calm), October 02, 1999.

e.m.,

I believe what you are trying to conceptualize is something I have been thinking about too, that is something we may call situation planning. It will be fairly easy to put the pieces back together if Y2K's impact is moderate, but how you do you put the pieces back together if Y2K turns out to be severe or catastrophic? What would be " The Plan " ?

Around the beginning of the year there was a Y2K conference at George Washington University where Stewart Umpleby ( sp ? ) proposed a general plan for the rest of the year. It was quite good and it was never followed. Basically in a city with regard to Y2K there are three populatons. There are the technicals, the non-technicals, and the dependents. The technicals are those skilled people you need to fix the Y2K problems ( programmers, electricians, etc). The dependants are those in hospitals, nursing homes, etc. The non-technicals are everyone else. Stewart's plan was to move the non-technicals out of the cities and into rural areas. That would leave the technicals and dependents in the cities and so this would minimize the strain on the cities infrastructure. The technicals would then fix whatever needed fixing post-rollover.

Unfortunately this plan was never implemented. Where does that leave us ? Modifying Stewarts plan a bit lets consider that its January 3, 1999, the nightmare situation has come to life. The cities have enough food for every person ( counting stores and warehouses ) for one week. The estimates are that the technicals need a month minimum to get things back up and running.

How to keep everyone alive and get things fixed ? First, you will have to keep the technicals well-fed and healthy if you are going to ultimately fix the cities and thus save everyone. The technicals will need calories to perform their work. From Harris' Farmer's Almanac Presents Y2K Survival Handbook " It is said that the human body can survive for 30 days or so without food. True for the most part, but this claim fails to take into account the debilitating effects of starvation. Food is fuel, without which your work performance suffers. Just as in the case of dehydration, judgment and reasoning falter. Confusion and malaise set in, too. You must eat regularly if you are to remain in peak mental and physical condition. "

You can thus see the need for the technicals to eat well. If there is limited good water and/or water filters, the technicals should get the best water. The non-technicals and the dependents would get enough food and water to survive on. You would probably set aside most of the food in the stores and warehouses for the technicals. If there is enough food for 1,000,000 at 6 days, there should be enough for 50,000 technicals for 120 days or 4 months. Eliminating a month's worth for non-tech and dependent still gives 3 months for the technicals.

How will non-tech's and dept's survive? Lying around in bed all day minimizing caloric needs and water needs.

Hopefully the tech's can get it fixed before the three month's are up.

What is situation planning ? You come up with dreadful stories and outcomes, a real spiraling down infomagic types of happenings and outcomes and you figure ways to do it differently so that outcome can not occur, sort of like war games. As an example, if your outcome is that the technicals failed because they ran out of diesel for their generators, how about using gasoline generators and using gasoline confiscated from people's cars and trucks? In a city of 1,000,000 assuming about everyone owns a car, that would equal about 5,000,000 gallons.

Situation planning is something a Think Tank would have to do. Who knows, maybe somebody somewhere is doing it, I really hope so.

I believe

-- Stanley Lucas (StanleyLucas@WebTv.net), October 02, 1999.

Eyell,

Have given this much thought & maybe best way to explain is to tell you my story. I believe you have hit the real core of our futures if the 7-9 develops next year. Truly said, "United We Stand, Divided We Fall."

March 98 I came to realize how bad Y2K could be & how little help we could expect from Fed/State Gov't. I retired to work on this project full time. My first thought was to relocate. I live in upper Midwest about 60 miles from the largest city & 3 miles outside a small city (50k) in an un-incorporated sub-division of about 15 homes. We are about 1 mile from a river and 1/2 mile from a creek with woods & farms close by. No major highways near by & Interstate is 5 miles away on the other side of town. There are 3 other sub- divisions of about 100 homes each within a mile of us. Avg temp in Jan is in the teens.

I decided to stay rather than leave family, friends & neighbors especially since they are mostly DGIs (my wife included.) I could live as a hermit in the woods but wouldn't like it. We have lived in this area for 30 years.

My first thought was that in order to help others my family would have to be prepared. So, would try to do both together. After talking about Y2K with neighbors, friends, congregation and co- workers on an informal basis I found about 4 folks out of 100 that thought any kind of preps were in order.maybe. Not much help. Some moral support was it. My family split down the middle, wife & her mother can't comprehend it at all (level 0.) 2 youngest kids (in their 20s) think it may be a level 3-4. Oldest kid (in early 30s) thinks can be 7-8. Next to oldest wants it to be a 10. OK, so my resources are my 2 oldest kids, my wits & my retirement fund.

The first thing (& hardest) I had to do was convince myself (daily) that the worst case scenario was the future & needed to be prepared for. Then my main idea was to make my home the survival center of the neighbor-hood. If my neighbors have a stake in my home, they just might band together to protect it.

1st thing is shelter (cold here in Jan.) I take that as a plus for this location; most folks leaving the city will head south to warmer areas (I hope.) Installed 2 wood stoves in our big house. Could sleep about 50 folks in a pinch. Body heat would add some to the inside temp. Have enough dry oak to last the winter. Also can cook on one of the stoves.

2nd is water. Have my own well with an electric pump but had a 2nd well drilled & hand pump installed. Also got 100+ 5 gal pails with handles & resealable lids. Neighbors welcome to use them to get water to carry home. Also am looking into making hand well pumps that neighbors could use in their own wells.

Can use the creek as a backup source for water. Have Sodium Hypochlorite dry form to disinfect & charcoal to remove chemicals. Also can supply neighbors with colloidal silver which is a great pathogen killer. I have 2 makers & enough spare silver rods for 5,000 gallons. Also a manual water distiller.

3rd is food. Bought enough dehydrated food to last extended family (about 12) for 6 months. Have about 300 meals of a dehydrated rice concoction for neighbors if needed. Bought non-hybrid vegetable seeds last spring & planted test garden. It did well & we harvested & saved seeds from it. Will have seed for neighbors to plant next spring. Also started an herb garden with about 60 verities. Will have seeds & cutting for neighbors next spring. Planted 13 fruit trees last fall & lost only 1.They will start producing some next summer.

Had a root cellar built this summer for storage of food. Cool in the summer & won't freeze in winter. About 55 degrees year-round +- 8 degrees. Will let neighbors use part of it. Also can be used for tornado/fallout shelter (hope won't have to.) Also could live in it if the house burned (hope won't have to.)

Will stock up on corn, soy beans & wheat when surrounding crops are in this fall. Have 100 lbs of diatematious earth & sealable 5 gal pails. Have a couple of grain mills, cast iron cookware, etc. Out neighbor-hood may not eat well, but we will eat.

4th is misc stuff. Enough potassium iodide for 1,000 folks in case of nuclear accident. Doctor in a Box (wife is a nurse) will handle most needs short of major surgery. Small solar panels to run radios, a couple of lights, small water pump, recharge batteries, etc. Hand- crank radio (am/fm/sw.) Guns & ammo (for varmints.) Home schooling supplies (oldest daug is teacher.) Number 3 daug is dental student so teeth are covered (somewhat.) Son is an engineer so can build/fix things.

Talked 2 daugs into attending 4 day survival class out by San Diego this summer. They learned enough to feel confident we can survive in the bush if needed. They arent experts but can teach neighbors simple survival if needed.

Finally, the story won't be complete til next year but you get the drift. My strategy is to ensure the survival of my family under the worst conditions & be an indispensable asset to my neighbors to help ensure their survival. I have to say my motto is the old saying "Give a man a fish & you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish & you feed him for a lifetime."

If I can help my neighbors through the 1st 6 months of next year, I feel those that are leaders will raise up & those that are followers will fall in line. I don't do either well; guess I'm something of an independent. But, I will do what I can to help & guide.

I know I've overlook some things & have a thousand things left to do yet but the basics are in place. Thats about as far ahead as I can see.

If the worst happens & we lose current gov't structure I feel it will be the neighbor-hoods that will survive & start the rebuilding process. God willing, my family will be part of that rebuilding.

joetsr

-- Joe Tietjens (joetsr@excite.com), October 03, 1999.

One day years ago, when I was a baby-faced, 21 year old flight attendant, everyone on the plane heard the captain announce that we had experienced a loss of hydraulic pressure, and were going to attemptto land in Denver, in about an hour. In the meantime, we were going to be dumping fuel to minimize the potential for fire on landing, and reviewing emergency landing and evacuation procedures with passengers.

For the next 30 to 45 minutes, I had the fully focused and cooperative support of every passenger on that 727. Only one asked for reassurance that we were not going to crash. Everybody else, men and women of all ages and walks of life, "got it" very quickly. We didn't have much time to worry about dying, because we all needed to focus on how to survive our landing, if at all possible. There was plenty of time to panic, but we didn't. I moved people around so that I had the ablest bodies at the exits, buddies for those who might need assistance, and passengers assigned as backup for each of the doors, in case crew members were injured and unable to open them. Not one passenger balked or argued. It was "yes, mam, you got it". By the time we began our descent, everyone on that plane was focused on the task of survival, and aware that their behavior as well as the crew's could help or hurt their chances.

When our wonderful pilot, with God's grace, brought us safely to a stop after a long, long, reverse-thrusting roll down Denver's longest runway, we all cheered. The passengers didn't curse the crew for scaring them to death. They thanked us for the way we handled the situation, and for helping them to channel their fear into cooperative action.

I share this memory because I keep coming back to it whenever I start chewing over this same question about how my neighborhood, community, and people in general, will react to Y2K if it presents a survival crisis. Y2K won't be like a fire in a crowded theater, with no time to think or discuss what to do. IMO, if things get bad, alot of DGIs will quickly become GIs, and then they will do what you and I have been doing since we GI. They will want to share their concerns with others, and look for ways to meet their families' needs. Just as most GIs have figured out, the best security is in mutual aid and sharing of knowledge, labor, etc. I am hoping that most people will react just as that random assortment of people on my plane did. They will want to survive, and this will focus most minds and behavior like nothing else most of us have ever experienced.

Most people will want to be part of the solution to their problems, but might need help in identifying the resources they have in hand, and ways to maximize and prioritize their usefulness. The willingness to cooperate with others will probably depend upon how bad things get, and how quickly, and how widespread the failures are. I think humans are hard-wired for "tribal" or "social" interdependence and cooperation, a quality that may become even more pro- nounced in stressful, survival situations, if it's what the community values & rewards.

Kristi

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), October 03, 1999.

Kristi,

Hear! Hear!

Thanks for bringing in a real life examle of just how tough the human spirit can be.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), October 03, 1999.

joetsr -

How do I become one of your neighbors!?! ;-)

An interesting approach to what one's preps might include. Of all of my various acquaintances, a few co-workers are the only GI's I know of, and that may be because we all attended the same seminar in '98, which scared the begeebers out of us (we work for an electric utility). My wife is also DGI, as are just about everyone else I know, relatives included. How is your wife tolerating your preps? For me, it is kind of a "don't ask, don't tell" situation. I guess I am a closet prepper... As it has been said, no man is an island, and I believe this will be true for Y2k as well. I wish we could get the passengers on this ride to realize the true potential for a plane crash NOW, instead of when we're almost to the end of the runway and the ability to prepare or handle the problem will be greatly diminished. Good comments all!

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 03, 1999.

Eyell, If you want to be a neighbor better hurry; land prices are climbing here. And, don't be last in line at my doorI will use the root cellar for overflow; it ain't pretty but you won't freeze. Your situation & mine very similar. My wife & I both work & always have. We have separate checking accounts + 1 for bills. Less arguments that way. I generally cover the bills & she makes up any short fall if needed. Our rule is don't ask & don't tell. It works. As far as tolerating my preps.it helps to be a little crazy. Amazing what people will overlook if they think your deck is short. Now, my wife has always thought I was playing with about 48 cards. Last summer that went down to 30. I think I'm back up to 41 or 42 now. Most things I leave in the box & put it in the shed or garage. That didn't work with the well, wood shoves & root cellar. I told her it would increase the value of our property. She is skeptical but wants to believe it. I think we are all pretty much closet preppers. There wouldn't be a problem if we weren't. You are right; we are all in this together, like it or not. The few of us with the courage of our convictions will have to provide for those without; like it or not. The consequences of not helping your neighbors is unthinkable. Your reward may be nothing more than your self-esteem. But, I would not want to be a man without self-esteem. Joetsr.

-- Joe Tietjens (joetsr@excite.com), October 04, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr near Monterey, California

I've posted a long response to this question over at the preparation forum, where it was originally asked, and where I think this question is most properly addressed, assuming that it is decided that we will help our neighborhoods, in the first place. I would suppose that questions as to whether or not we should would be traditional TB2000 material. I think the Humpty Dumpty aspect comes in if we detect that something that people may do just to get through may set a bad precedent for long term culture.

Culture, like biological evolution, moves by jumping from one local max to another. Occasional self-imposed deprivations are sometimes accepted, if an ultimate benefit can be readily anticipated. Thus, it does help to have a vision toward which the group can work. There will be no time at which we will come to think that we're through the "survival" challenge and can now start devoting time to deciding how we will live.

Culture is necessarily a reflexive concept, requiring that the term be used in its own definition. Thus, culture is "what people do, in order to best get along with others, considering the culture in which they find themselves." What I see Humpty Dumpty as doing is debating and developing ideas about what the best visions would be for the next culture, and finding a way to seed these ideas, so that they can serve as common visions for getting through and beyond any Y2K difficulties.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 04, 1999.

A traditional conceptualization of "culture" includes identifiable manifestations or "lifeways" of a group in responding to or living with their natural environment. The arid nature of the West is one reason that ranching, rather than farming, developed as a lifeway in California. It was once such a predominant way of life that the entire economy was based around the hide of a cow ("California Bank Note.")

Outside of a few rural centers, in our "modern" way of life, great transportation and technological advances have minimized the impact of the local natural environment on the development of "culture." We can import resources from anywhere and process them almost anywhere.

Rather than siting timber mills with loggers in the great woods, trees are imported from New Zealand and processed into wood near shipping ports, like Sacramento, with hi-tech robotics. Gone are the colorful suspenders, flannel shirts, packers boots, frayed jeans of the logger. Fading fast is the craft knowledge base of the "faller" or the "green chain puller." Gone, or fading, is that aspect of "culture" and regional diversity from the whalers of Maine, to the steamboaters of the Mississippi, to the gold miner of the West. We are becoming a bland techno-monoculture

However, should y2k result in a prolonged breakdown of transportation and of high-tech machines, the interplay of the local natural environment with its people may once again have a greater impact on cultural development.

I know our local people are "of" the rivers and the forest and the mountains where they live, make their living and recreate. The natural environment shapes them as much as they shape it.

That to me is "culture" far more than Italian food in my frozen food section at the supermarket.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), October 04, 1999.

Joetsr -

Are you sure you're not living in my house instead? Except for your extra "take care of the neighbors preps", the situations are so similar it is uncanny. Right down to the checking accounts and the "it will benefit the property value"... Yikes! It gives me hope to think there are more GI out there than I realize...

e.m.

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 04, 1999.

Amazing...the it benefits the property value was the excuse for getting the place with thw WW II bunker...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 04, 1999.

Eyell, Yes, it is uncanny. And, I have no long lost brother, uncles, cousins, etc. Especially since I know of only 1 other fullGI & 4 halfGIs in this county. No explanation.

---------- Mad Monk, Sorry if I misled you. I'v had the place for about 10 years, but adding the bunk.ah.root cellar was my idea. Now you almost enticsed me into a long discussion extolling the virtues of root cellars but I shall resist the temptation. Instead I recommend the book "Root Cellaring" by Mike & Nancy Bubel; available thru Amazon I believe.

When you live in tornado country any shelter will enhanse the value of your property. A woman was killed in her house not more than a block from this house some years ago.

No, I'm sure the most excitement my root cellar will see is harboring baskets of root vegetables & apples & such and maybe sheltering us from the occasional tornado that comes our way.

Besides, my short stint in the military & a quick review of "History of War" suggests mobility is much more highly regarded than entrenchment. And too, my policy is if you come to my door with open hands, you are due a meal and a place to sleep for the night. If your hands ain't open Joetsr.

-- Joe Tietjens (joetsr@excite.com), October 05, 1999.

The approach to take is like being in a natural disaster First you need to make an assessment of the damage,attitudes and the resoures. Only then will you get a true picture of what you can do.You all most have to wait.

-- Itoldy O. Uso (mrosscorecomm@hotmail.com), October 08, 1999.

Great question. I am new here in the forum so... could someone tell me what GI and DGI mean? Thanks!

I live in the greater Miami area. We decided to involve our church in a emergency response program called CERT (Community Emergency Response Team). We have also formed a CERT in our neighborhood consisting of myself, my wife, three daughters and another couple. We have MIAMI-DADE county ID's and authorization to act on behalf of the county in our neighborhoods in the event of a crises.

In November and December, I plan to visit our neighbors with my CERT "uniform" (Hard hat, tee shirt, emergency vest and supply bag) and explain who we are and the importance of preparation for emergencies, particularly hurricanes. I have been trying to use hurricane season to "trick" people into preparing for y2k, in order to do an end-run around their apathy.

After January 1, if the neighborhood aleady knows who we are and that we represent to some extent county authority, I'm hoping that we will be able to facilitate sharing of resources and neighborhood cooperation.

I am stockpiling extra charcol and firewood, as well as beans and rice to give away. I also have a well that I had drilled recently with a handpump, so we can provide our neighbors with water.

Jose-Miami

-- Joseph Holbrook (caris@prodigy.net), October 23, 1999.

GI = Get It (they understand and believe that Y2K will cause problems, hence they "Get It").

DGI = Don't Get It; Doesn't Get It. (don't understand or believe that Y2K will cause problems)

DWGI = Don't Want (to) Get It (may understand, but don't want to believe it could happen).

-- Eyell Makedo (make_do@hotmail.com), October 24, 1999.