North Carolina ~ Pit County. The power station that supplies all of Pitt County is under water. Instead of wringing their hands in dismay, they raised the equipment above water and got power back up. The main tramsformer is 6 feet under water, but it is a sealed unit and it is holding at the moment.

This is proof that workarounds can and do work, as well as showing that those who are responsible can and do figure out viable workarounds!

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), September 21, 1999

Answers

We have yet to see if "workarounds" will work with Y2K. Somehow I don't think it will be the same as a hurricane.

-- Skeptic (skeptic@doubtful.com), September 21, 1999.

I'm guessing that the power station workers were not worried about a riot sweeping over their homes. They were pretty sure a paycheck would be forthcoming on time, and that help would arrive from outside the flooded area. They figured they'd be able to deposit and then spend the money from those paychecks, and their employer would be in business long enough for the employees' performance to be observed and then incorporated in future promotions, etc. The employer cares about that, because they want to maintain good people on board to maintain their company's stock value. And on and on and on ...

In any disaster there will be people who do their best to keep things rolling along. That's what we're (most of the people here) trying to do ahead of Y2k, for which we get abuse from DWGIs and scorn from the media. If I respected either, my feelings would be hurt.

But it's foolish to think that the Floyd response will inevitably be the response in Y2k. The situation will be vastly different, and the result are unpredictable. Hurricanes and other disasters will be our MODEL for a response, we will strive for that kind of attitude and behavior, but we cannot foretell how it will really play out.

There is certainly enough proof by now, one would think, that the two or three day fix is a myth. Fix on failure might mean hours, might mean months. Would the power company engineers still be working on the task, if they'd been trying to raise that equipment for a month and still couldn't figure out why it wasn't high enough? Not that they couldn't GET it high enough, you see, but that they couldn't UNDDERSTAND why it wasn't high enough. That's the kind of error we'll be working on next year.

Good luck.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), September 21, 1999.

Cheri, If fix-on-failure is working so well why did the Federal Emergency Management Agency say "that 47,000 customers in North Carolina remained without electricity, 56,000 without water and 33,500 without phones. Most schools in the counties east of Interstate 95 were closed indefinitely. So were more than 200 roads, including long stretches of Interstates 95 and 40," according an article in today's San Jose Mercury News?

Brian

-- Brian E. Smith (besmith@mail.arc.nasa.gov), September 21, 1999.

Localized disaster recovery is much a different scenario. Nobody ever disputed that workarounds have been successfully used in history. But nobody has ever been forced to try it on the scale we are going to see.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 21, 1999.

I agree with the dog... The workaround work as long as there is a long-term support base from which to work from. If there ain't no support base, then the powerstation may as well still be under the water. And by the way Cher, that 'sealed transformer' do you think there are any noncompliant chips in there? A flood and a storm/hurricaine/blizzard are all far different from whats gonna happen come 01-01-00...

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Cheri: How do you breathe with your head stuck so deeply in the sand all the time? Is the reason you always have your eyes closed is so the sand won't get in them or so you won't have to see something you just do not want to see?

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), September 21, 1999.

Yes, Cherri,

We'll almost ALL try the work-around's, however with Y2K the GLOBAL complexity is NOT just local.

(That's why some prepare... some don't).

Diane

Interview: Kind on Monitoring Y2K Millennium Bug--ICC Information Coordination Center (USIS Washington File)

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 001PZn

[snip]

Q: And how long do you plan to operate?

A: From the 28th of December through the millennium until we are confident that any Y2K-related disruptions have stabilized.

[snip]

Q: Are you expecting serious problems on January 1, 2000?

A: I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen. If someone tells you what will happen with certainty, then they aren't credible. The reason we're doing the things that we are is that there is a potential here. We think we've followed good remediation and testing procedures here in the federal government, and we hope that's been done in other organizations, in industries, in other nations. It's prudent to be prepared. We're prepared to collect the information, assess it and try and recognize the early trends. These could be good as well as bad, and we're hoping they're good.

The essence of the problem is time compression. Multiple sectors could be affected in a short period of time. Normally, when you have a disaster it affects only one organization sector or geographical area. The potential here is for multiple effects. As time goes on, the more work gets done, the more testing gets done, things look better. And we shall continue checking and testing, but it's still appropriate to have the capability to monitor the situation when the time comes and to provide clear reports to decision-makers, the press and citizens throughout the world.

###

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 21, 1999.

Bad analogy, Cherri. Two-thirds of North Carolina counties are affected by the flooding. Nearly 300 roads are still closed. And it's raining. I doubt they're "wringing their hands in dismay" in the areas still without power: floodwaters are still over the rooftops in some areas and rivers have not all crested yet. As for Pitt County, yes, the electricity is back, BUT:

Tuesday, September 21, 1999

Greenville residents watch river, forecast

Life begins returning to normal, but new fears rise with the water

By JERRY ALLEGOOD, Staff Writer

GREENVILLE -- With the Tar River already higher than anyone has ever seen it, Greenville residents watched the muddy water Monday and worried about how much more was coming. It was an odd day of conflicting forces and emotions in the university town of 50,000 people. On the bright side, there was sunshine for much of the day, and the revival of many aspects of normal life -- electric power, open supermarkets and gas stations, automated teller machines that poured forth cash, and open roads to parts of the rest of the world. But there was also the river, and a worrisome weather outlook. Everyone was aware of Tropical Storm Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico that threatened to bring more rain. The experts said that Monday would be the peak day for the river; it was expected to crest at 30 feet -- 17 feet above flood stage. Throughout the day, sightseers gathered at the downtown Greene Street Bridge to marvel at a brown torrent that raced by less than 10 feet below. "What we would hope is we would start leveling off and decline because rain is coming," said Marvin Davis, assistant city manager. The city itself occupies high enough ground that most homes were not in danger. Only about 400 city residents evacuated last week as the river started rising. About 350 more left their homes Sunday as the creeping brown tide advanced. In surrounding areas of Pitt County, however, many people were less fortunate, especially in the low-lying countryside across the river to the north of Greenville. Davis estimated that 4,000 to 6,000 people lived in areas threatened by the floodwaters. About 1,900 people were staying in Red Cross shelters in Greenville and Pitt County. "It's scary now," said Mike Silverman Jr., an East Carolina University student who lives in an apartment complex near the river. Dozens of apartments in Silverman's complex had been evacuated by Monday morning. A few more feet and Silverman, a junior from Boston, would have to leave, too. "I'm ready to go if I need to," he said. The 18,000-student university has not held classes since the day before the storm Sept. 16 and will not reopen until at least next Monday. University officials encouraged the 3,500 students who weathered the storm in residence halls to return to friends and families if they could. ECU spokesman John Durham estimated that 100 students were still on campus. Pitt County schools also are closed all week. After the initial evacuations last week, many people made the best of the situation and held impromptu outdoor parties. But much of the festive mood drained away as the water remained and law enforcement officers prevented people from returning to their homes to salvage belongings. The river -- including those portions in yards and parking lots -- was declared off limits because of safety hazards. Officers for the N.C. Wildlife Resources Commission patrolled through apartment complexes in boats while police rode through in cruisers. Matt Gilbert pumped up an inflatable boat to return to his flooded apartment to check on his pets, including two snakes and a chameleon, but police warned him to stay out of the water. "We're aware of the hazard," he said. "We've already been back there." Anita Grau left her apartment on low-lying Wyndham Court on Wednesday and stayed with a friend in nearby Farmville. She has returned periodically to watch as the water has risen. On Friday, the river was at her front door. On Saturday it was knee-deep inside. On Sunday, it was waist-deep. Grau said she and her 14-year-old daughter were able to salvage special items such as photo albums and family keepsakes. A saleswoman, Grau said she has lived in the apartment about two years. "I said I was going to stay until I got my footing," she said. "It washed out my footing." On Monday, many residents strolled along the upper reaches of Town Common, the popular downtown park that parallels the river. The lower parts were underwater. Only street lights sticking a few feet out of the water marked the riverside walkway. The amphitheater where people gather for Sunday in the Park concerts also was swamped. Watching the river from the Greene Street Bridge, Gary Davis wondered when he would be able to return to work at Catalytica Pharmaceuticals Inc., on the north side of the flow. He said he was able to cross the river Friday, but travel had been blocked since. "We're not out of work because we want to be out," he said. "It's unbelievable for a company to be out this long." Central Willis, an employee of the National Weather Service, had been making hourly measurements of the river and posting them on a tree near the bridge. At 11 a.m. Sunday the river level was 29.01 feet; at 1:59 p.m. it was 29.14. On Monday morning, it was creeping up: 29.58 feet at 8 a.m, and from 10 a.m. until noon it held steady at 29.61. Davis, the assistant city manager, said the city still has a long way to go to get back to normal even after the floodwaters are a memory. "We think we've gone through the worst part, but we haven't," he said. "The hardest part is the recovery."

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 21, 1999.

Nice straw man, Cherri. Who's saying that no workarounds will work? Nobody.

One workaround works. So, that somehow means that workarounds that really work will be found for everything that goes wrong? Nice jumping to conclusions.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), September 21, 1999.

A quote from John Koskinen about Fix On Failure:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000n8Y

[snip]

We are running events in the United States focusing on small businesses, trying to provide them technical information, trying to encourage them to take action in the face of what we find increasingly is a position where many of them are saying they're simply going to wait, see what breaks, and then they will fix it once it's broken. We are trying to tell them that that's a very high risk roll of the dice, because when they go to get the fix, whether it's an upgrade in their software or a replacement for the software or the hardware, it will be obvious what the fix is, everyone will know how to do it, but the risk is, they will be at the end of a very long line of other people who waited to see what broke and then decided to fix it. And the fix will work just fine when it arrives, but it may not arrive until March, April or May of the year 2000, and these companies and governments and those who decided to wait and see may find that they're going to be severely challenged in continuing their operations while they're waiting for that fix to arrive.

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 21, 1999.

One building in NJ floods, and ATM's and credit processing is affected nationwide: does this prove that banks will be shutdown on Jan 1, 2, 3, 4, ...?

Of course not.

One company MCI had one program changed, and it was effectively "shutdown" from much phone service in and around Chicago for over 10 days - and they still don't know why or how to fix it. Does this mean that every phone system will be shutdown by a computer program change?

Of course not.

Your little example shows one workaround - applied at one place to fix one "physical" problem - flooding from high water on one transformer. But your "fix" couldn't be used to lift the roads "out of the water" can it?

You have shown how a little problem can be fixed by emergency measures - if enough time, money, and effort are spent to fix each little-itty-bitty single problem. But can you pretend that sudden, widespread failures can be fixed without affecting seriously the nation's economy?

It would be like pretending to be able to use a crane to "lift the roads" out of the water.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), September 21, 1999.

I like the optimism and triumph of the human spirit,thanks,Cherri!

-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), September 21, 1999.

"Cheri: How do you breathe with your head stuck so deeply in the sand all the time? Is the reason you always have your eyes closed is so the sand won't get in them or so you won't have to see something you just do not want to see?"

Cody, the mind denies what it cannot process.

-- (not@now.com), September 21, 1999.

Cherri - Taiwan is interested in your work around idea. They would like to raise some buildings that have gone boom. Please send them your fix on failure idea. Thanks.

-- enough is (enough@enough.com), September 21, 1999.

Hurricane Floyd was mentioned and the humanitarian efforts extended to many in distress and how we would all try to respond in like manner when things crash on 1/1/00. Welllllllllll, I hate to be a "doomer" but I don't think so! Floyd was very short-lived. The ratio of helpers and victims was very opposite to what we will experience when about the second week of January comes and there is no food in the stores ANYWHERE. After Floyd blew away, stores opened and trucks began bringing supplies in. People knew there would be food, etc. on the shelves of the stores so there was no panic. It was the traditional "3-day storm" that caused a few temporary empty stomachs and some very uncomfortable inconveniences. When Y2K hits, unlike with Floyd, there may not be trucks bring supplies because there is the very real possibility that this particular storm will not blow away for a very LONG time. When panic hits, those who have prepared may not be so generous with supplies that cannot be replaced.

-- winna (??@??.com), September 21, 1999.

Thanks for the quotation, Linkmeister!

I have found the current URL: http://pdq2. usia.gov/scripts/cqcgi.exe/@pdqtest1.env? CQ_SESSION_KEY=TGVFJQAIVNAM&CQ_QUERY_HANDLE=123992&CQ_CUR_DOCUMENT=1& CQ_PDQ_DOCUMENT_VIEW=1&CQSUBMIT=View&CQRETURN=&CQPAGE=1.

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), September 21, 1999.

Having kept our mouths shut, for the most part, over the past two months we have reached an impass.

Cherri, in short you are an lacking. What color is the sky in your world?

Yes, workarounds can be accomplished, in some circumstances only.

In the military, we have what is known as expedient fixes. ie: Use duct tape to seal a break in a copper water line, this will work in the short term, but place it under any substantial load and it will fail, unless a proper fix is put in service. Period.

What you are talking about and suggesting is that every system that encounters failure can use expediant means to fix their particular problem, a rube goldberg setup for the future.

You just don't get it.

And you must be very young and inexperienced to be this optimistic. Savour your youth young lady, you don't have many more days of easy street or daddy's money left.

-- c4i (c4ixxx@hotmail.com), September 21, 1999.