Was preparing and delivering a Y2K prep seminar for about 200 people at a 50+ retreat. Excellent response. However, missed the discussion on Yardeni's latest article (Sept. 9). Can someone point me to the right discussion thread. Seems like his recession forecast is narrowing. (I recognize he is rather optimistic on the domestic infrastructure front.) He feels that the impacts of the global economic impact will be be limited to the first 6 months of the year. Thanks!!!

-- Randy Poon (rhpoon@bigfoot.com), September 13, 1999

Answers

I have immense respect of Ed Yardeni, who up until about two years ago was a "super-bull". His current stance (hardly a TEOTWAWKI scenario) is seen as "doom'n'gloom" for most analysts. Here's the page for his Y2K Reporter

From page 4 of the Sep 09 Report: "So is it time to drop my recession forecast? I don't think so. But I am coming around to believe that most of it will hit during the first six months of next year."

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), September 13, 1999.

Here's one.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001KyS

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), September 13, 1999.

Here's a thread about Yardeni's recent Barron's article.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001Lzt

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), September 13, 1999.

Not the Barron's article.. but I just got this letter from him:

COMMENT: Since the start of the year, I've argued that the bull market in stocks was turning into a speculative bubble. I must admit that this insight is a cop-out for an investment strategist. It is a bear's way of remaining bullish: "I'm not sure how much higher stock prices might soar, but they will eventually crash." Not a very useful outlook. I've tried to add some value to the speculative bubble thesis by measuring it. Last week's Barron's included my article on the new, improved Fed's Stock Valuation Model. I've also concluded that some companies are using questionable accounting practices to overstate profits. The SEC is investigating this issue. I hope they do more than they've done to prod corporations to provide better disclosure about Y2K. More investors are asking me, "What if Y2K is a nonevent like 9/9/99?" I never expected this date to be a problem. I still expect 1/1/00 will be. But, if I'm wrong, then the bubble will get bigger in 2000, and it will burst for the same reason that bubbles have always burst, namely tighter credit conditions.

SUBSCRIBERS: I discuss the above in more detail in my latest GLOBAL PORTFOLIO STRATEGY, "Greenspan, The Bubble, & The Y2K End Game." I've also started a monthly poll of US Institutional Equity Investors. Subscribers can view the results every month from day 8-15, before they are open to the public. Have a look at www.peoplepolls.com. Send me an e-mail if you would like to join the survey.

PUBLIC: The poll results will be open to the public from September 16. You'll find that 44% of our respondents think the market is experiencing a speculative bubble. You'll also see which stock sectors they believe will be the best and worst performing ones over the next 12 months.

Y2K: My latest Y2K REPORTER analyzes the second quarter Y2K disclosure statements of the S&P 500 corporations filed with the SEC. The good news is that, on average, they were 75% done as measured by the percentage of Y2K budget spent. The bad news is there are lots of laggards that have lots to do in less and less time. At the end of the month, look for my latest Y2K poll with CIO/ISACA.

MOVIES: "The Thomas Crown Affair" is light entertainment. The original was better.

Dr. Ed

******************** Please forward as appropriate. All opinions and forecasts are subject to change and are not investment recommendations. ******************** Home: http://www.yardeni.com Weekly Audio Forum: http://www.yardeni.com/waf.html Global Economic Analysis: http://www.yardeni.com/weain.html Global Economic Briefing: http://www.yardeni.com/webin.html Topical Studies: http://www.yardeni.com/topical.html US Forecast Table: http://www.yardeni.com/public/forecast.pdf Ecofax: http://www.yardeni.com/faxit.html

Global Portfolio Strategy: http://www.yardeni.com/weain.html Earnings Forecast: http://www.yardeni.com/public/ee.pdf Global Markets Briefing: http://www.yardeni.com/#globinvest Stock Market Lab: http://www.yardeni.com/stocklab.html Stock Valuation Calculator: http://www.yardeni.com/stocklab.html#smcalc

Y2K Center: http://www.yardeni.com/cyber.html Y2K Reporter: http://www.yardeni.com/y2kreporter.html Y2K Netbook: http://www.yardeni.com/y2kbook.html Y2K News Fax: http://www.yardeni.com/y2knews.html Y2K Action Day: http://www.y2kactionday.com Y2K Corporate Disclosure: http://209.208.199.147/Y2K/Y2KFind.asp

People Polls: http://www.peoplepolls.com/

-- Linda (lwmb@psln.com), September 13, 1999.