The debunkers lack a wide and deep view of life experiences

From the debunkers' forum: >Sixth, I should have said this yesterday, but I didn't: You gave no >indication as to what part of the country you're in. But if your >business is really as fragile as you described, and you don't already >have contingency and/or disaster recovery plans as a matter of >day-to-day business that would enable you to get through "two weeks >without power", you were probably doomed from the start.

How many grocery stores, restaurants have electric generators and enough gasoline to keep food from spoiling for 2 weeks? Not to mention the lack of cashiers able to calculate totals and correct change in a speedy manner without use of a register.

This is failure of 20% of the economy right off the bat!

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.com), September 06, 1999

Answers

Let us also be mindful of the WHEN and WHERE of a power outage. Such as in the dead of winter. Such as in a major city.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), September 06, 1999.

The problem with power being down for many retail businesses is a lack of security systems operating. Think about jewelry stores and malls. No cameras, no alarms, no trips, not enough guards to go around.

It isn't always a question of fragility. You may lose in theft what you made in business per day. Sometimes it's better not to open. Paying extra help for two weeks is costly.

I must think like a thief. :o)

-- eubie (eubie@whome?.com), September 06, 1999.

Adding to KoS's point, last winter was an El Nino winter, next will be a La Nina winter; it will likely be colder in many areas.

Without electricity for two weeks:
many people will experience fatal hypothermia
many water pipes will burst
some agricultural livestock will get to be deadstock.
some natural gas pipelines will drop to atmospheric pressure.
etc., etc., etc.

Did someone say interconnections?

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), September 06, 1999.

And what if the power that is restored is "iffy", or what a thread described yesterday as "brownouts"? Can't abnormal flows of electricity into a business or residence do permanent damage to equipment, so that it might not be operable even after the power is restored? Can the wiring itself be damaged/fried by surges, or only the object hooked up to it at the outlet? My neighbor had his box for the dog's invisible fence blow off the basement wall after lightning struck the ground just above where the line was buried.

I'm wondering if I should either 1) unplug all but a lamp and an old television on New Year's Eve, to protect my appliances/office equipment/etc., or 2) if I need to turn off the circuit breaker to my house totally, to safeguard the wiring, built-in fixtures, etc. If things are turned off, but plugged in, can power surge through the house via an open breaker, and still cause damage? I know NADA about electricity, but some anecdotal stuff has me wondering if my concern about its availability should include whether it is waning and surging, not just whether it is on. Any info anyone can provide? supply is

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), September 06, 1999.

Let's see, 14 days x 24 hours = 336 hrs

Assume a very small generator that uses 1 gallon gas/ hr.

That's 336 gallons! Currently 99% of stores and restaurants do not have and do not plan to store 336 gallons of gasoline.

Now for the cashier problem, imagine the long lines at the supermarkets on a Saturday afternoon. Now multiply that for the increased number of shoppers (who BTW won't help buy meats, ice cream, frozen pizzas etc. because they have no refrigeration too). Also, most grocers do not price mark their goods (everything is scanned by UPC) Now add to that the number of cashiers who can't get to work that day.

I'm a pragmatist, insults don't hurt me and I listen to both sides of an argument if it can make sense or solve the situation.

Patricia, you guess wrongly twice already. 1) I did read all of your links. 2) I am not a grocer or a restauranteur

CPR, I thought about what you said about not being able to prove a negative. Now that makes your predicament clear to me. My condolences!

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.com), September 06, 1999.

Sandwich,

Are you an opened faced one?

creamed chiped beef on toast? aka shit on a shingle!

-- (ham@on.rye), September 06, 1999.

Patricia, Sorry, three strikes! Just because they don't buy foods that require refrigeration does not mean they don't buy any foods at all. Let's see, canned or dried foods and bottled beverages fit the bill of other foods. However, in the last major blackout I encountered, color TV sets were the first to go!

Don't try so hard arguing for the sake of arguing. Disagree civilly, present your case. Because: "Stick and stones will break my bones but words will never hurt me!"

-- (anon@anon.com), September 06, 1999.

More on that NYC blackout in 1977:

over 2000 businesses were looted, $1 billion of of damage estimated in a blackout that lasted less than 2 days. Blackout started at 9:30 pm, looting started at 9:40 pm

At that time, many businesses recovered because of insurance. However, all major insurance companies have already declined coverage for y2k related losses!

-- Sandwich (anon@anon.com), September 06, 1999.

And lest we forget, a year ago when there was an electrical blackout in Washington State, Skagit County, when the power came back on Equilon had a power surge that ended in an explosion and 3 lives lost!

-- Sammie Davis (sammie0nospam@hotmail.com), September 06, 1999.

Sandwich:

Why are you on the Yourdon forum addressing answers to folks on another forum?

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), September 06, 1999.

Subject: 2 Weeks of no power can be total failure for many businesses

Even Jim Lord, on the show this weekend said he isn't that worried about the power going out. There has been too much shown to have been done to expect a total power failure.

And lest we forget, a year ago when there was an electrical blackout in Washington State, Skagit County, when the power came back on Equilon had a power surge that ended in an explosion and 3 lives lost!

-- Sammie Davis (sammie0nospam@hotmail.com), September 06, 1999.

I don't THINK so!

There are too many people around here that Know what happens for you to get away with that convolution of (snicker) facts.

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), September 08, 1999.