Checkout the graphs.What a coincedence.The Ponzi scheme,at Wallstreet@casino.goldilocks is weeks away from the day of RECKONING.

http://www.formstar.nis.za/sp500cc.htm ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++Prepare:FOR AN OUT OF MONEY EXPIRIENCE.

-- drken (drken@bubble.gone), September 01, 1999

Answers

I was looking at these earlier on a link at Prudentbear.com. There is a good discussion group over there on the downside potential of the market. Worth a read if you are interested.

LINK

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), September 01, 1999.

Its the malinvestment..Stupid. Debt...the final nail in the coffin,

Regarding growth of debt, a good source is the Federal Reserve: for the aggregate (pay special attention to the spectacular growth over the last three years of the outsatnding balance of financials' debt, which is compounding at a double-digit annual growth rate): ****http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/z1r-2.pdf****

for consumer debt: ***http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/business/cmdebt***

for state and local governments plus non-financial corporates: **http://www.stls.frb.org/fred/data/monetary/debtsl **

growth rates as year-over-year percentages **http://www.stls.frb.org/images/publications/mt/page14.gif **

The bottom line is that we have entered an extraordinarily inefficient "growth" phase the last two to three years, with aggregate debt in the US growing at five times the rate of GDP. [Put in the vernacular, it's taking $5 in additional debt to increase output by $1. That five dollars, plus its interest, will have to be paid from current earnings or from the liquidation of net worth --destruction of wealth -- at some point in the future.]

Even assuming 5% gross interest rates (unlikely, IMHO), a continuation of this trend for the next ten years implies the mathematical certainty of interest payments plus scheduled principal exceeding GDP. Add to that $80 trillion in derivatives.Do I have to go further.

-- drken (drken@bubble.gone), September 01, 1999.

from another forum...

I have been examining the charts on the US$ vs Other currencies and the result looks like the US$ will finally die very soon...One of the key charts is the Japanese Yen...If you look at a 3 year ( closing price ) chart, you will see the makings of a huge head and shoulders bottom that the Yen is making in here....And the Yen is at the breakout point now...The projected result will put the Yen at about 60 to the dollar!! Other currencies look to be in the bottoming camp against the dollar as well...I suspect the when we get the next trade deficit report, the dollar will be in a freefall. The reprecussions of this will be the dismantling of the hedge funds that have been short the Yen...combine this with a falling stock market and come the end of September you could see a real mess in the financial markets...This Could, and I say Could, lead to a BIG Crash in the markets without hope that the PPT will be able to pick up the pieces...you see, this WILL be the domino effect that sets the ball rolling...all of these forces coming together at the same time will be too much for Bill Clinton and his lying theiving cadral to bolster up...Think about it for a while...A rapidly falling dollar...A rapidly falling stock market because of a rapidly falling dollar...A rapidly falling banking system because of rapidly RISING interest rates...A banking crisis just beginning because of Y2K withdrawls AND As a result of all of this, Hedge funds that are in serious troubles and about to bring down the banking system!

Now, I can hear all the ney sayers out there, "this could never happen"...but I say to you in all sincerity...once this starts...it will seem like the whole world is caving in on the US financials...as I see it, we are out of control as we speak and Alan Greenspan knows this!

We are finally coming to the end of our out of controlled spending ( debt ) on all levels, First-Gov't, Second-Corporations, Third-US Citizens...with the rest of the world now growing out of recession all the recovering countries will be drawing all of their currencies back to them as money comes flowing into THIER stock markets....This is the end of the bubble market!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), September 02, 1999.

But- a lot of folks just don't get it. Period. I've tried to convince someone we know to get out of the market for months now- nope. not him. He just keeps hanging on- afraid he'll miss something- not doing his personality much good though- the stress of it all......

Stupid though- it is a truism that you only know when you reached the top of the market when it's on it's way down.....

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), September 03, 1999.

Yes, I have people who are afraid of "capital gains"......

Far better, I guess, to not have any gains than take a chance on having to pay taxes on them next year.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), September 03, 1999.