Just highlighting another aspect of this "Y2K ready" utility's ability to provide power. Not too good if the HEAD of the organization thinks she needs to get a generator to prepare for "winter storms" eh? Check out "Will the lights go out in the northwest?" at http:www.tribnet.com Tacoma, WA News Tribune Aug 26 1999 Also available (recopied) on the earlier Bonnneville Power thread.

-- Ann Fisher (zyax55b@prodigy.com), August 27, 1999

Answers

This story has NOTHING to do with Y2K. More in the vein of SAVE THE SALMON. But of course the headline works on this board to give the assumption you choose to give.

For those who did not bother to look up the story:

Could Northwest lights go out?

Power shortages in next decade possible without new sources, BPA says Al Gibbs; The News Tribune

The Northwest is running out of electrical power and may not be able to keep the lights on all the time in the first decade of the 21st century.

Blackouts could strike as early as this winter.

A study by the Bonneville Power Administration suggests that unless new sources of electricity can be found, the region could face winter shortages of as much as 3,400 megawatts - 3 1/2 times what Seattle uses at any given moment - by 2008-2009.

"It's real. The regional deficit is real," said Judy Johansen, head of the Bonneville Power Administration. "The West Coast (power) surplus is dwindling. That's real."

A theoretical supply problem doesn't necessarily mean that blackouts will actually occur.

A variety of special circumstances would have to align for the region to be plunged into darkness on a freezing night.

BPA's projection is based on drought conditions reducing water for the hydroelectric dams in the Columbia Basin. Add to that constraints on the amount of power being imported from the Southwest.

The scenario also would require freezing temperatures in normally mild Western Washington and Oregon, and, perhaps, a winter avalanche knocking out one or more of the transmission lines that bring power from dams and coal plants east of the Cascades to consumers west of the mountains.

However unlikely the coincidence of all those factors may seem, some utility executives are watching the situation closely.

"I don't know if 'worried' would be the right word," said Bill Gaines, Puget Sound Energy's vice president for energy supply. "We recognize that under some scenarios there would be a deficit. Some (new generation) needs to be developed in the region."

In a positive vein, Gaines noted that a new natural gas-fueled combustion turbine is under construction in the Everett area, and "there are 10 or a dozen others in various stages of being proposed" in the region.

A different study being conducted by the Northwest Power Planning Council is turning up supply concerns similar to Bonneville's, said Mark Walker, the agency's director of public affairs.

"I wouldn't take issue with anything Bonneville shows," he said. "It's fair to say we show a probability of a problem."

There is some room for optimism.

Energy deregulation at the wholesale level has meant that utilities from across the United States - not solely the ones that have traditionally supplied the Northwest with power - have started generating and selling electricity in this region's energy markets.

They have filled part of the region's increasing needs, and could fill even more.

"We have developed a pretty healthy respect for the ability of the (energy) markets to supply the power we need," said Tacoma Power director Mark Crisson.

"It's a very robust mechanism to meet demand in a very reliable fashion."

Tacoma buys about 60 percent of its electricity from a combination of Bonneville and private companies that own generating plants.

At the same time, Puget Sound Energy is selling many of its generating assets, notably its share of the giant Colstrip plants in Montana and the Centralia steam plant.

Meanwhile, Johansen acknowledges that there is no organization in the Northwest whose sole role is to ensure the region's electricity supply meets demand.

Bonneville has even lost some of its available power, about 1,000 megawatts of hydro generation capacity given up to provide more water flow for endangered salmon in the Columbia and Snake rivers.

"We're seeing a decline in resources and (an increased) load growth," Johansen said.

What once was a power surplus in California - electricity sent to the Northwest when California residents and businesses didn't need it - is disappearing. And Canada, which once sold its surplus energy mostly to the Northwest, is beginning to sell to California at higher prices.

It is part of the industry's restructuring under wholesale deregulation, and it has left many questions unanswered.

"Until they're resolved, we'll be stuck in the muddle," Johansen said.

And even if they are resolved, Johansen will probably keep a portable electric generator handy at her home.

Not to supply power in the event of a major regional blackout, she said.

"I want to be prepared for a winter storm," she said, where the greatest chance of losing electricity isn't a powerful regional economic shift, but a tree limb falling on a power line.

- - - * Staff writer Al Gibbs covers regional energy issues. Reach him at 253-597-8650 or al.gibbs@mail.tribnet.com.

) The News Tribune

08/26/1999

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), August 27, 1999.

Isn't it funny that this is the year everyone wants to make sure they are prepared in case of a disaster? The American Red Cross has been preaching this for years, but THIS is the year everyone is listening. I'm glad their message is finally getting across...I only wonder why now?

-- Mabel Dodge (cynical@me.net), August 27, 1999.

Yes, I wonder why NOW is the time to buy a generator. What a coincidence that they are worried about losing power THIS winter!

-- anti-chainsaw (tree@hugger.com), August 27, 1999.

That's it Cherri, just keep saying it over and over and over...

REMAIN CALM! DON'T PANIC!

THERE'S NO REASON TO BE ALARMED! Is Debunker back up yet?

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), August 27, 1999.

Ann, thank you for the post on Bonneville Power. As a Northern California resident, I rely on power coming from the north. We have just been informed here that the major tie into CA - carrying over 4000 MW, is in danger from the fires here, and local officials have reduced the load and declared a power emergency, "just in case". So, I am interested in whatever may happen either now or next winter in your area, "just in case".

Please keep posting, Ann. There ARE people who are interested!

-- Margaret (janssm@aol.com), August 27, 1999.

"And even if they are resolved, Johansen will probably keep a portable electric generator handy at her home.

Not to supply power in the event of a major regional blackout, she said.

"I want to be prepared for a winter storm," she said, where the greatest chance of losing electricity isn't a powerful regional economic shift, but a tree limb falling on a power line."

-----

So let me get this right. She's not going to use this 'portable electric generator' in the event of a major regional blackout-- only if a limb takes down a power line during a winter storm?

Sorry, I'm having another cynical moment here, but I can see the thought balloon from the comics over her head now: "I have a much, much bigger generator for major regional blackouts."

Sigh.

-- winter wondering (winterwondering@yahoo.com), August 27, 1999.

You're lucky the head of the power company can state his plans of buying a generator. In my area, if officials from the power company discuss their personal y2k plans in public (ie whether or not they will have a generator, more than 3 days supplies, etc) they will get FIRED. Even if they are asked a direct question about it in a public y2k forum, they can't answer the question.

-- b (b@b.b), August 27, 1999.

LOL, winter wondering....

-- lisa (.@ .), August 27, 1999.