24 August 1999

Transcript: Worldnet with Energy Official on Y2K and the Energy Sector

(8/17: DOE's Jim Caverly on program with St. Petersburg, Moscow) (5,960)

[Summary]

"With about four and a half months to go till the Y2K rollover, we should be focusing less on the remediation of the problems in the systems and more on the contingency planning, on how to mitigate problems that can occur," the U.S. Energy Department's Jim Caverly said on a USIA WorldNet program on "Y2K and the Energy Sector."

Caverly is deputy director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, as well as deputy director for international energy and Y2K planning and preparedness at the Department of Energy (DOE). From Worldnet's studio in Washington, he answered questions posed by journalists in St. Petersburg and Moscow August 17.

The biggest problems that could result on January 1, 2000 and beyond, according to Caverly, are related to "interdependencies" -- in other words, "the systems that depend upon other systems to function. Electricity systems can't function without telecommunications; telecommunications can't function without electricity."

Caverly pointed out that because the American system "is so reliable and so efficient, small Y2K interruptions will probably have a far greater impact than in systems that are not as reliable, that are used to routinely having interruptions in their service -- electricity and natural gas. So there is a risk that a small problem in the United States could be a much bigger problem for the U.S. than a large problem in some other country."

If a country is dependent upon a Russian energy export that occasionally is interrupted, and a Y2K interruption occurs that is within the boundaries of these normal problems, "your systems are capable of dealing with it," he said. For example, Eastern European countries "have a lot of gas storage to deal with temporary interruptions of gas deliveries. The question for Y2K is whether this is going to be a greater interruption than what people have the contingency for dealing with, which is why we place the emphasis on contingency planning."

About Russian nuclear power plants, Caverly said they "have done a very good job of getting ready for Y2K. If we have a concern, the concern is about the interface between the nuclear power plants and the operators of the electric grid, because if instability happens on one side we are concerned about how each party will react."

He said there will be a conference in Prague in mid-September for nuclear power plant and electric grid operators to discuss their contingency plans. There will be another conference in Prague in October for contingency planning between Russian energy export systems and those countries in Eastern and Central Europe that are dependent upon Russian exports, Caverly said.

"Generally we are very confident on how the reactors will be operated, and we are not particularly concerned about the power plants themselves," he said, "and it would not be in our position to suggest to somebody to shut down their power plants. Given the excellent cooperation we have had at the individual power plants, we think they are quite ready to deal with this problem in the plant itself."

Asked about the Global Positioning System (GPS), Caverly acknowledged that the U.S. government was surprised at the number of systems that depend upon GPS. "While we had paid a lot of attention to the navigation systems, the extent that it had integrated and migrated into the other industries probably surprised us. We are prepared to deal with the problem. We think most major navigation systems have been fixed. We are concerned about people who have older equipment, that have not bought new equipment. But we will be monitoring the situation very closely."

Following is the transcript of the August 17 Worldnet "Dialogue" program:

(begin text)

WORLDNET "DIALOGUE"
UNITED STATES INFORMATION AGENCY
Television and Film Service of Washington, D.C.

http://www.usia.gov/cgi-bin/washfile/display.pl?p=/products/washfile/latest&f=99082406.wlt&t=/products/washfile/newsitem.shtml

[The rest of the story...]

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 25, 1999

Answers

It is interesting that Caverly admitted that a small disruption in the US could lead to a larger problem here than in some other countries due to our enormous reliance upon technology. Also this comment: "I think the American public reaction to Y2K runs from every extreme, from the people who have bought cabins in the mountains and stockpiled food and water and other resources and are going to be away from all information technology, to a large number of people who have paid no attention to it at all, and will be surprised if some things happen in the fall."

What things? are going to happen in the fall?

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), August 25, 1999.