Let's see now, on Monday, Koskinian says "everything will be okay next year because the stock market is still high..."; but the same day, Reuters prints this story - that wasn't publicized at all....

Interesting, isn't it....

< PHILADELPHIA, Aug 23 (Reuters) - Forecasters in a new Philadelphia Federal Reserve bank survey see a one-in-four chance U.S. Gross Domestic Product will contract in the first quarter of next year due to year 2000 computer problems.

The bank's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters, released on Monday, predicted a dramatic slowdown in growth to 1.9 percent in the first quarter of next year compared to an expected 3.9 percent pace for all of 1999.

``As they did in the past survey, the forecasters expect a noticeable slowdown in the first quarter of 2000, to 1.9 percent, reflecting the possibility of a year-2000 effect,'' the survey said.

``Indeed, the forecasters are assigning a one-in-four chance to the possibility of negative growth in the quarter.''

The 25 percent chance of negative growth forecast for the first quarter compares to a 7.0 percent probability seen in the fourth quarter of this year.

The Y2K computer problem arises because many older computers were programmed to recognize only the final two digits of a year, for example ``99'' for ``1999.'' That has fanned fears business activity will slow if computer-controlled systems fail or malfunction in 2000 if they read ``00'' as ``1900'' instead of ``2000.''>>

reference: http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/990823/s0.html

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), August 24, 1999

Answers

Yes that was an interesting causal relationship in the Koskinen quote. "Because everything is ok now, that means everything will be ok next year". This gets my vote for duh-2000.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), August 24, 1999.

As we get closer to rollover, this estimate of negative growth will increase.

Of coure, after the market tanks, only a few will be forecasting positive growth.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), August 24, 1999.

Read the story again. 1/4 of "experts" do not see foresee a downturn in early 2000. Forecasters in a Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey see a 1-in-4 (25%) chance that there will be a downturn in early 2000.

-- larryb (y2bored@gps.com), August 24, 1999.