Just wondering; how long would trucking, rail and air transportation continue trying to move goods, even if they could operate, if major hub cities (Chicago, NY, etc.) have unreliable or totally disrupted power and water outtages? Where does the carrier refuel, who will be on the dock of the warehouse to take delivery (or even accept financial responsibility for freight that cannot be redistributed or needs refrigeration), where will your transportation personnel eat, sleep, and pickup freight for the return legs, etc., etc., If the routes have major "holes of unpredictability and risk" in them, how long will it take transportors to decide to just ground their fleets until they can operate them safely and profitably again? Would you send millions of dollars in assets out to a destination, or be able to find a crew to make the trip, if the destination point was experiencing major infrastructure problems? Or if the route in between was "pocketed" with such locations.

My local grocery has new computers (which he assumes are compliant, and he probably believes his bank and franchise warehouse is compliant), but how much freight will be making its way to that warehouse? What if that warehouse is located in a part of the grid that loses electricity and/or water&sewage? Same goes for my gas station, my pharmacy, etc. Even if my town is pretty operational, are we likely to receive much of the freight we normally need to stay productive and fed, and doing business? This is what the DGI view doesn't get ... that whether YOUR bank and power are working isn't all that you need to think about...

-- Kristi (KsaintA@aol.com), August 20, 1999

Answers

You cant pump fuel without electricity, every intersection is a 4 way stop as long as the fuel last. Fuel can't be refined without power. Railroad signal lights use local power (I"m refering to lights the engineers look at) it gets worse. Loss of grid would be the trip wire for total down hill slide.

-- rambo (rambo@thewoods.com), August 20, 1999.

YOu can't cook, "fabricate" or prepare or clean food preparation or sterilization equipment - therefore, regardless of what the farmers have raised (and been able to ship) - the food supplies are shut off in that region until water and power are reliable.

Ever try baking bread when the oven "turns off" half way through? try it with a batch of "noodles" dough that gets stuck in the middle of the extrusion process.

This all assumes the grocery company itself is compliant and can ship and sell the food that is produced.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), August 20, 1999.

Kristi,

another "aha" moment!!!

you've just broken through to the Milne-Infomajic concept:

the key word all along has been (and still is) "connectivity", or "connectedness", or "inter-connectivity"...

you've hit the nail on the head;

good thinking!

watch your back

Perry

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), August 20, 1999.

FWIW -

Last night on Art Bell (never listened to him before - what is this Kingdon of Nye stuff?) Gary North said that the main thrust of the military if called up under martial law, would be to keep the interstates open so that supply trucks could get into the cities. (Keep private vehicles off the roads). They both seemed to think the rural areas would be the last to get any help. Also, the control of the interstates would be helpful in keeping the many from getting out of the cities into the countryside.

A trucker called in also. I didn't catch all he said, but he was concerned about the newer trucks (semi tractors) having mandatory shut down chips in them that would cause a truck not to start if certain maintenance hadn't been performed. At least that was the gist of it. Wonder if that will have much affect on the availability of cargo space if things go on very long.

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), August 20, 1999.