So much of the Y2K debate seems focused on what happens if the electricity goes off. My question is - what if it stays on? Assuming there will be 'x'% of failures, but the electricity stays on, what will be the impacts then. It's so easy to say that if the electricity goes off then there will be problems, chaos, etc. Even the contingency plans of businesses, etc. seem focused on external factors, i.e. electricity, telcomm, supply chain, etc.

For some reason my gut tells me that electricity will be generally O.K., probably because so much of Y2K conversation is focused around it NOT being O.K. (I don't feel as good about fuel, however, and this may be where the electricity does fail - no fuel). I want some scenarios/examples of other "non-electric dependent" Y2K problems. I know that the general consensus is that if a leg of the iron triangle fails, then it all fails. I generally support this position and I see the banking system as the weak link in the triangle. I want to go beyond the triangle in assessment of Y2K failures.

Thanks for any input.

-- Jim (x@x.x), August 18, 1999

Answers

For those in a darkened room, with no light, or in a cave, - trust your feelings, maybe. Otherwise, use your brain. Think. Feelings are not a good measure for decision making.

My bank statement & checkbook balance show that I have $200. But I feel that I have more. So I spend $500. Sorry, but I felt I had more money. Not good. Let the psychobabblers stick with the touchy/feely stuff. Logically and thoughtfully review what data you have and make your plans accordingly.

-- enough is (enough@enough.com), August 18, 1999.

Just think "supply-chain" and "division of labor". Now, follow THIS LINK, and read the essay, "I, Pencil".

That should just about take care of any questions...

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), August 18, 1999.

As long as the juice stays on, we can fix everything else.

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), August 18, 1999.

Different parts of the country face different electric-generation risks. All parts share the same risks regarding the distribution system, substations, all that stuff.

In the far west and northeast, hydro power predominates. That's technically the simplest. Nukes have various degrees of embedded device risks, and cascading risks because of 911 requirements. Coal plants are technically complex, and depend on the entire railroad infrastructure to get fuel, which in turn depends on electric service along the routes, depends on working coal fields, etc.

So in some areas the lights are likely to stay on. In others, they may be out immediately. Coal generation, if it stays up during the rollover, may drop out as local stocks are exhausted, and stay out for months.

For a graphic look at impacts, check out Y2k Dependency Map and Techno-Economic Engine

-- bw (home@puget.sound), August 18, 1999.

Not quite, Dennis.

You may be looking much farther ahead than I, but if my electricity stays on, my water will stay on and my sewage will still work. (I know this from constant communication with my utility director for the past year.) Looking ahead, you might say, "Yeah...but how LONG will your electricity stay on...remember that your electric company needs fuel, and that fuel may come from Venezuela and Venezuela is TOAST." I could retort that my electric company has a 90-day supply of fuel. I could retort that the local oil/coal companies have factored in this problem and are prepared to supplement my electric company's needs. I could even retort with BOTH, and this could put me into summer of 2000. By summer of 2000, Venezuela may very well NOT be toast.

-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), August 18, 1999.

If the electricity generally stays on, it will be easier to "muddle" through in the U.S. More problems will still be economic and supply chain from the international arena.

Will we be "problem free?" Highly doubtful.

Can we cope? You bet!

Could some simultaneous or evolving "events" case severe impact? Yes to that too. Or not.

It's the global systemic "wildcards" that could catch us with the pants down. So many unknowns.

Where are the "staws" that "could" break the camels back? Everywhere.

Time... and the first six months of next year... will tell.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), August 18, 1999.

That's pretty dumb, enough is enough. The "feelings" and reason are part of the same nervous system. Emotions operate faster than reason. A balanced person will use the emotions as information, and analyze that information through reason. An unbalanced person will say things like "My bank statement & checkbook balance show that I have $200. But I feel that I have more. So I spend $500..." Personally, I have all kinds of feelings about this Y2K mess. I use those feelings as an impetus to investigate certain areas. Then I act based upon that investigation. But enough of that.

If the juice stays on? At the very least, it buys us more time...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 18, 1999.

IMO, if the juice stays on- we buy ourselves some time for sure. If the elec. is on for the most part- especially in major cities- we avoid large riots, looting, etc - at least for the time being. if power stays on, and tv is avaialble- the massses will stay home and watch the tube.

In the long term- I still would see a serious recession- or depression- worldwide. Major supply impacts- high loss of jobs- factory closure- gas/fuel shortages- prices at stratospeheric heights.

but- the linchpin, IMHO- is the power grid- if we can keep that going- we avoid alot of grief- including major fires due to use of candles- heat/water/sewer failure, etc- power is the biggie I think- and i don'ty have a feeling as to which way that will go- don't know enough about it to warrant a guess-

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), August 18, 1999.

My concern is that the power will stay on for a little while and then fail. Everybody will relax and get a little complacent, start dumping their preps and instead of focusing on taking advantage of the extra time available for remediation and testing they will blow it off and then the failure will cause greater harm.

-- ExCop (yinadral@juno.com), August 18, 1999.

great points here...

So, the juice stays on, the accounting software is fried, you haven't paid your bill since "January, 1900"...your power is turned off for lack of payment. You are one of a few million who got similar notices and were also shut off from power.

I wonder how many times this scenario might take place in the near future? I wonder what effect this might have on the power grid if a few million people were to suddenly be automatically shut down?

Anyway, if the power stays on we may be looking at brown out conditions. It'll be interesting to see how corporate America deals with unreliable service.

If there is no impact at all, then the benefits are obvious - business as usual and we all breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Mike

==============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Jo Anne Slaven last year wrote a plausible scenario about 2000 that assumed electricity would be restored fairly quickly. You can find it at this link: http://www.kiyoinc.com/WRP99.HTM . Scroll down to "Thinking About a Possible Future".

My opinion as of August 1999 is that on January 1st and 2nd, a majority of Americans are going to be relieved that the rollover happened with relatively few apparent problems. Pessimism is likely to grow on the first business day of January, though, and there could be many shortages and bankruptcies in the following weeks and months.

Let's hope that there's no war, civil unrest or terrorism related to Y2K.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), August 18, 1999.

Someone wrote: So, the juice stays on, the accounting software is fried, you haven't paid your bill since "January, 1900"...your power is turned off for lack of payment. You are one of a few million who got similar notices and were also shut off from power.

I wonder how many times this scenario might take place in the near future? I wonder what effect this might have on the power grid if a few million people were to suddenly be automatically shut down?

+++++++++++

I don't think it will take place at all. To shut off your power, workmen typically have to come out and disconnect it at the transformer.

Now, don't you think that the people who send out those workmen are going to stop and think when they get a printout that says that someone (or more likely, everyone) hasn't paid their bill since 1900?

More likely, a failure would be in the mode of "this statement covers the period January 1, 1900 to January 31, 1900" - with a stamped note on it that the date is off by 100 years, please excuse our trouble.

Jokers who try to avoid paying such a bill may get their power turned off, but this will be strictly their own fault for being smartasses.

Bottom line: if the power is still being generated but billing is difficult, the power company will not be turning off people's power unless the company's management wants their industry nationalized by governments eager to show the grumbling public that they're "doing something" about the problem.

JZ

-- Jeff Zurschmeide (zursch@cyberhighway.net), August 18, 1999.

Bottom line: if the power is still being generated but billing is difficult, the power company will not be turning off people's power unless the company's management wants their industry nationalized by governments eager to show the grumbling public that they're "doing something" about the problem.

I'll agree with that. But, if billing is "difficult", what would that do to a little thing called Cash Flow for the company?

-- Lane Core Jr. (elcore@sgi.net), August 18, 1999.

If accounting was screwed up due to a computer failure, who cares about cashflow. The people who want their jobs will stay and take their chances at getting paid, the rest could leave. That is why you need some spare cash at rollover, in case your employer gets sidetracked by the BITR...TEOTWAWKI...etc...; )

There are people in Russia who haven't been paid in months, how do they get by? They still go to work everyday... why? Loyalty to their job, not employer. How spoiled Americans will act... well I guess that is just another variable now isn't it...

Y2K... one hell of an equation...

growlin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), August 18, 1999.

In the hope that the electricity stays on I have bought many lightbulbs. If lightbulbs become scarce due to manufacturing difficulties, I'd feel pretty stupid sitting in the dark with electricity and no bulbs.

-- Pearlie Sweetcake (storestuff@home.now), August 18, 1999.

>> I want some scenarios/examples of other "non-electric dependent" Y2K problems. <<

Assuming the "iron triangle" of utilities, banking and communication (I hope I got those right) stay viable, there are still some interesting Y2K scenarios far short of devolution to consider:

Process controllers go offline in factories. This is a supply-disruption scenario. Many manufacturing processes are computer-monitored and computer-controlled. Some of these systems may go down due to faulty software or embedded chips, shutting down production for a period of hours, days, or more. Many such disruptions would be in non-vital industries and would only affect employees, or downstream customers. If oil refineries go down for any extended period, fuel shortages could develop.

Offshore industries go offline. This is also a supply-disruption scenario. If the lights go out in Penang, Malaysia, many high-tech factories will go offline. Chip shortages would develop in the USA. Many vital industries are now located all over the world. Supply lines could empty of any number of important chemicals, minerals, or manufactured goods, causing ripple effects across the globe. No tungsten means fewer light bulbs made, and so on.

Billing errors cause clerical nightmare. This is an cascading inefficiency scenario. Like it or not, paperwork exists for a reason. If the orderly flow of paperwork is disrupted, due to computers producing bad and unuseable data, then orders, billings and payment systems will become extremely sluggish as the clerical workers fight through a nightmare of errors, generated both in-house and by suppliers and customers. The phones ring off the hook as every office in every business tries to straighten the mess out. This could last for months.

Cascading financial troubles. This is a recession/depression scenario. If the world is plunged not into cold and darkness, but into a period of low productivity and high inefficiency, it will cause financial markets to react rather violently. This would be exacerbated by the fact that these markets (especially in the USA) are priced for a very rosy scenario of high productivity and high profits extending far into the future. As that belief in a rosy future collapsed, so would stock prices. Trillions in paper profits could disappear. This would trigger a credit crunch and a collapse in capital spending. Bill Gates might revert to a simple 2 or 3 billionaire instead of a 100 billionaire.

So you see, even if the electricity stays on, we could potentially experience some very interesting results from Y2K.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 18, 1999.

Lane, your answer about cash flow to Jeff is the first thing I thought of when reading his post.

Even his answer,Bottom line: if the power is still being generated but billing is difficult, the power company will not be turning off people's power unless the company's management wants their industry nationalized by governments eager to show the grumbling public that they're "doing something" about the problem.

Well, that in and of itself would be a massive problem for the entire industry, wouldn't it? Especially the owners and investors of the various entities that make up the industry.

Bottom line, the accounting and billing software were the first applications to be focused on and remediated by the entities who were active early on in their efforts. Why? Business survivial 101. If you can't bill you don't make money and if you don't make money you don't stay in business. The government taking over the industry shouldn't make anyone feel comfortable about this possibility.

The economic ripples if this were to occur would be more like a tidal wave.

What I'm very interested in is what percentage of closings could the energy system withstand before the reliability of the grid becomes an issue.

Mike

====================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Brian, your post is excellent! Thanks for thinking through all that, I didn't see it before I posted.

Dog, buddy, I beg to differ.

"There are people in Russia who haven't been paid in months, how do they get by? They still go to work everyday... why? Loyalty to their job, not employer."

I've actually heard stories about workers being paid in staples like vodka. The staples are then used to barter for other goods. No doubt they are loyal to their job because there are only so many good jobs around. I wonder what corporate America will have stockpiled to pay their employees with?

Mike

============================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Question: Do airplanes crash sometimes even if their engines run?

Question: Do any airplanes that lose all engines not crash?

That is the difference.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), August 18, 1999.

I also have bought extra light bulbs--just in case. Should buy more. The script is uncertain. Great and beautiful if the electricity stays on and we have water and sewage!!! Yes, the financial stuff could still be very bad, but flushing!! What a happy luxury.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

(1) On Kaua'i, I think that the power will stay on for the month of January. (After that, it will depend on whether or not we are getting regular shipments of oil...)

(2) I still have a generator....

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 18, 1999.

If the power stays on, I will be able to follow the biggest oil crisis in history in greater detail as the offshore wells grind to a halt and foreign nations cease exports. Another plus is that I that I can still watch "The Omega Man" on my VCR whenever I want to (unless Klinton bans "pictures" of guns).

-- Sam (sam67@aol.com), August 18, 1999.

Some industries simply can't be allowed to shut down for mere finance reasons. If an electricity company's cash flow threatened to shut it down, it would be taken over (in the last resort) by the state before the lights went out, and refinanced from taxes or even from arbitrarily minted money. Ditto water and sewerage. Ditto telephones. Ditto railways. Ditto (and this really IS the last resort) banks.

There are a few examples of not-quite last resort in the near past. When I was staying on Long Island, LILCO was a financial basket case, though I can't recall any details of how it was sorted out. And didn't New York (the city) go bankrupt at some time?

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), August 20, 1999.