Your main focus is of the Big cities and you skim over the small ones (8-10K people). What can we expect in the aftermath?

-- Judy Lenger (ja.lenger@exchange.nmb.norwest.com), August 10, 1999

Answers

Judy,

Good point ... my hunch is that whatever Y2K problems occur will be far more severe in the big cities than in the small towns. It also seems reasonable to expect that relief efforts (whether in the form of FEMA, Red Cross, National Guard, or martial law) will focus more on the big cities, and smaller towns will be left to fend for themselves -- unless, of course, it turns out that we have an "optimistic" Y2K scenario in which the ONLY problems are in a few small, isolated towns.

In any case, if we accept the possibility of a moderate-to-severe Y2K outcome (as described in Chapter 2 of the book), then the relevant question is: what do we want to do about it, in terms of re-building or "re-thinking" the concept of what a town/city is all about? Based on the feedback from people on this forum, I've added a new chapter in the book outline, which will focus on the notion of "sustainable communities? What would it take to make a big city more robust and "resilient" to future crises of the magnitude of Y2K? Assuming that telecommunications, the Internet, and some reasonable form of mass transportation survive or can be re-built, do we want to encourage people to gradually abandon big cities and gravitate towards smaller towns throughout the land? Those are the kind of issues I think we should be discussing in the "sustainable communities" chapter of Humpty Dumpty Y2K

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 10, 1999.

Ther are soix dissant "urban planners" all over the country salivating at the prospect of a 20 cent shift sothat they can institute draconian plan changes FORCING (for our own good, I might add) changes in how we travel inside and between cities, trying to establish Inter and Intra Urban Rail lines. This would be their finest hour (they believe).

Chuck, who has carted a few around.

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), August 10, 1999.

I would assume that if there is rationing or curtailment of power that the rural areas would be the first to be rationed because of the danger of rioting and looting in the cities.

Additionally isn't that the democratic way to serve the greatest majority. On second thought does that sound like Karl Marx?

Joe Stout

-- Joe Stout (joewstout@iswt.com), August 10, 1999.

Your answer mentioned the possibility of rebuilding by repositioning the population away from the cities, in a more even distribution across the rural landscape. Isn't this one of the planks of the Communist Manifesto?

-- Brad Bolz (bradbolz@cableone.net), August 10, 1999.

The rural landscape would have to be capable of sustaining life. Large cities exist because that's where the jobs are. During the depression, people had to leave the rural landscape to look for work in the city. The rural landscape is being taken over by new housing and industrial development. There's one thing that can't be made and that's rural landscaping.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), August 10, 1999.

Has anyone considered that one of the primary targets for food confiscation, way ahead of individual houses, would be granaries, feed mills, large farms, etc.?

This could see the small population areas stripped of basic commodities to feed the cities. But count on it, after warehouses of processed food are empty, refugees will be fed on the same wheat, corn, soybeans, and powdered milk we ship overseas for famine relief.

Especially in small cities and rural areas, I would expect searches/seizures to be primarily for propaganda effect.

-- Jon Williamson (jwilliamson003@sprintmail.com), August 11, 1999.

Oh great, so even living in the country I'm going to be a target!! I guess "Heading to the Hills" was meant literally after all. Well, if that's the case then most of us don't even stand a chance.

Do you know how scarey a feeling that is, to sit here and realize that regardless of the preparations I've made, that my family of 8 will be no better off than those who didn't? It's a horribly disparing thought.

-- Kimberly Hott (ckhott@urec.net), August 11, 1999.

Kim,

My family and I are constructing a fake wall with a secret panel - which will be the only enterance to our food storage area. Were going to leave a small amount of food in the kitchen's pantry for confinscation (should this occur) because they won't go away empty handed, and there by protect the "Real" storage. It will be a Hidden room.

JL

-- JL (Cannot@say.com), August 11, 1999.

I moved recently from a large metro area to the central, rural part of my state for y2k induced reasons. I was informed recently and began noticing that the majority of the electric power for this area is hydro generated. I wonder if small communities with their own hydro plants will be chugging along given the gloomy expectations(by some) of "The Grid"? Could this actually "save" some smaller communities or lessen the blow?

-- Brayman (pbray@tds.net), August 11, 1999.

I read an article several weeks ago that included a brief interview with a FEMA official who was asked about the possibility of confiscating food from individual homes. I can't find the original reference but to the best of my recollection he expressed a little surprise, denied that that would happen and then said that, on the contrary, it would be great if people had prepared for themselves and their families because that would just be one less family that the authorities would have to concern themselves with.

You're free to either take his statement at face value or not. Personally, I would tend to believe him.

If I can find the original reference late I'll post it.

-- dhg (dhgold@pacbell.net), August 11, 1999.

It seems reasonable (i.e., not un-realistic) to assume that the government's range of reactions to disruptions will be dictated by the severity of those disruptions. There is no taint of cynicism in assuming that if people are starving and rioting in the big cities, the governmental authorities --- Federal, State, County, whichever can muster the enforcement capability --- will take the most direct action possible to restore order. In extreme situations in the past, this has certainly meant declaring martial law, and orders to "shoot on sight" or summarily execute looters and rioters. When disruption is sufficiently severe, some responding government authorities have gone beyond confiscation of goods, raw materials, foods and medicines and outlawed "hoarding" (which they define as they see fit), with punishments ranging from imprisonment and forfeiture to hanging.

This statement is not intended to inspire despair, but to encourage people to keep in mind that communities have historically tolerated authoritarian solutions rather than the chaos of ungovernable individual strife. On the good side, the American military officer corps has a tradition of respect for civilians, and will issue promises to pay for supplies they salvage, appropriate, or borrow. If things are so chaotic that there is no central government capable of setting coherent reasonable policies for these issues, then we're screwed anyhow! In that case, isolated families and communities are on their own, and whosoever has the bigger guns, or the more ruthless raiders, will end up with the twinkies.

-- David March (marchfiddl@home.com), August 12, 1999.

"TWINKIES"!!!!!!! Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha! Funny, Funny! You absolutely slayed me with that one!

...Ruthless Raiders with TWINKIES! Ha, ha, ha, ha, Thats just too good!

Thanks for the laugh! Judy

-- Judy (giggle@laugh.com), August 12, 1999.

I am from a smaller population area, and I have had some "various" thoughts I wished to "plant" somewhere on here; I hope this is an appropriate enough place.

We live in a small county with a total population less than 10,000. All of our suppliers for food, petrolium and other retail products, are at a very minimum of 1 1/3 hour away, and the trucks are required to traverse mountain highways to reach us. I believe the major problems that our community experiences now will be exaggerated post Y2K.

We are fortunate to have a community supported small hospital; however, extreme medical emergancies must be airlifted to larger facilities.

Weather related incident delays, such as snow or ice storm, effect the time it takes to restock grocery shelves. We live at the end of the supply chain already.

Our gasoline prices always run .03 to .05 higher than down the mountain.

We routinely only have two law enforcement personal on duty, we only have one county supported EMS crew on duty, and must rely on volunteer back up if the county crew is on a call. All fire fighting personal are volunteer, and supported by grants and fundraisers.

A local "pool" of IT experienced persons is, basically, none existant. All systems are contracted out to companies who would, in the event of fix on failure, for basic EMS and 911 services, would probably place our small systems very low on priority list, including travel difficulties at beginning of year related to disruptions or weather or sheer volume of work load.

We have a small regional telephone co-op, and our electricity is also provided by a co-op purchasing electricty from several sources. If any one of these sources went down, also would our percentage of available power from that source. In times of weather emergancies, members of our electric co-op do as all small providers do, and exchange personale to the areas of the disasters as needed. Should any difficulties be widespread, exchange of "human or technical" resources may not be realistic.

Post Y2K, should there be disruptions in supply chains or infastructer, we would be, basically, on our own and probably for a period of time longer than more populous areas.

This is nothing new to people living in more isolated areas. I my self have found myself "in the crowd" awaiting the bread or milk man's delivery van at 7:00 a.m., as the snow flakes started flying. We also well know, if we didn't get to the store till later that morning, there would be no milk or bread left to purchase. Sure, the minute the delivery hits the door, there are some that rush to grab, obviously, more than they need; but the majority of us, weigh what we need, and take no more.

Our survival has always depended on each other and the deep commitment of our volunteer emergancy personale. I expect nothing less will transpire if things get bad next January.

During three foot snows, our paid and volunteer county personal HAVE waded miles with 5 gallon cans of kerosene or medical prescriptions. Likewise, we are still "small enough" that our pharmacists know individuals by name and can say "so and so", also has this medication, and "so and so's" family will get the shared medication delivered.

When a house was on fire during such a snow storm, county, farmers, and other private individuals have met the challenge. When the fire trucks axle broke trying to reach the fire, private individuals cleared the road and towed the fire truck to the scene. Payment of such deeds is never expected nor asked for. Of course some do take advantage, but most, if they can't pay, practice returning the favor at a later time.

Does this sound unrealistic? Probably, but to put it into perspective, you must realize, these "heros" are a very small percentage of the population. These stories of neighbors helping neighbors, at least in the two areas I have been fortunate enough to live in my lifetime, I am hoping are the rule, not the exception for all small areas.

So in summary, if post Y2K exaggerates problems, I suspect most smaller population centers will also exaggerate solutions. Duration and quanity of the problems, is of course, the wild card we can't predict.

I have one thought, or question really, being from a small area, that I have wondered about. Would it be realistic to expect that disaster planners in more populated areas would connect with smaller rural planners, post Y2K, and impose quotas on "taking in" people from other areas? Is there any such frame work in place to impliment this?

I don't think there is a precident for this beyond, of course hurricane evacuation, where obviously Red Cross sets up centers further inland.

I am not speaking about individuals leaving cities by their own choice and coming to relatives and friends homes, or even randomly showing up. This would be a problem by itself, but my question just deals with "planned evacuations", by the busload perhaps.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), August 12, 1999.

Fuel Cell Power

How about the use of fuel cells in the 150KW range for small towns.

Perhaps small towns need MegaWatts?

We were actually looking at using fuel cells for backup computer power, (we're a software company), now that some bank in the midwest has done it. (See Infoworld a couple of weeks back for the article.)

If Y2K is a 7-9, then Fuel Cell makers will be getting rich, as people convert their power to the cells.

How much is enough for a small town? KW? MW? GW?

Glen Austin

-- Glen Austn (gdaustin@aol.com), August 12, 1999.

Since most of the posts have been premised on a scenario in the 7-9 range, I'll weigh in with some comments presuming a more moderate 4-6 range scenario.

I live in Black Mountain NC, and we have already been seeing a substantial influx of retirees for the past several years. My prediction is that in the aftermath of Y2K, this trend will increase substantially. Y2K will be the last straw for many city dwellers. Anyone who has the means and capability of leaving the city for a smaller town or rural area will do so. The many people of retirement age living in the big cities are the largest group of people meeting this criteria, and so there will be a big exodus starting in the summer of 2000 and continuing for several years.

I will also say that in small towns, the neighborhood and community structures are still more intact and better functioning than in the cities and suburbs. The problems caused by Y2K will probably be met more effectively by voluntary community and neighborhood cooperative action in small towns than anywhere else. One result of the aftermath will therefore be that small towns will be by far the best places to live as far as quality of life is concerned.

-- Stefan Stackhouse (stefans@mindspring.com), August 12, 1999.

Thanks Judy for the advice about the hidden door. That may take a bit of thought. But how in the world do you hide your chickens, goats, cows and other livestock

Isn't it amazing how a couple years ago most of these thoughts never crossed our mind! Now here we are, just regular civilians trying to figure out ways to possibly protect ourselves from our very own government, preparing for a world that we would never have even imagined could be possible! Figuring out just how far we will be willing to go to hold onto what we have, to protect our families.

-- Kimberly Hott (ckhott@urec.net), August 13, 1999.

Regarding fuel cells (and by implication solar technology) - This is an emergent technology which is very expensive and not yet well accepted. I personally hope that in the long term, the effect of y2k will accelerate their introduction, but a nation under duress will think of simpler things.

Regarding small towns - There are millions and millions of Americans living in small towns and even more remote "unincorporated areas". It would be a logistical impossibility for a centralized government to systematically take control of all these areas, even if all of the supply chain for fuel and all of the army and national guard were used. Since y2k will be a"crisis of resources", any government action which tries to solve the problem by confiscating from one to send to another will only be counterproductive.

-- Thomas Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.net), August 14, 1999.

Lilly - Our area is so like yours, I thought at first that you lived here.

Two answers: (1)We have hydropower on our river. Some of the locals thought that in an emergency they could just "forcibly" isolate from the grid and become autonomous. According to our power company, even though we actually have seven dams in our stretch of the river, the local system would not produce enough on its own to supply our needs. Barring a large Bonneville type facility, this may be the case in your area as well. (2) I believe in the children's book and movie "Bedknobs and Broomsticks," the plot is premised on the fact that during WWII in England, a single woman in the country was assigned three children from London to house and feed.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), August 15, 1999.