All, I posted this at TB2000, and thought I might post it here also to get some thought processes going. I hate this line of thought, but I feel that anyone walking into an unknown like 010100 needs to mull over this. This is not what I think will happen, but a "what if"... Fair warning, It is very depressing to some people...

---------------------------------------------------------------------- IN THEORY, ALL CONTINGENCY PLANS WILL ULTIMATELY FAIL, unless the entity that develops the contingency, has an end point planned into the contingency, and adapts to that end.

You gotta know what you are getting into...

Unfortunately, 010100 has no end point detector. There are no past case studies for this topic; there is no recent history. With everyone involved in remediation having a legal gag order to keep from being sued, you will not get accurate, relevant information from organizations or companies you have a vested interest in, or any other for that matter. So that pretty much shoots "normal" contingency plans in the foot, IMHO.

So, what if TSHTF??? If anarchy rules as king in the 21st. century, and you do not get back to nature, adapt accordingly, you will cease to exist. In a draconian world, only the strong, and the canny survive. One of the most frightening things I have ever done is imagine what kind of life would exist if modern infrastructure was no longer an option.

I hope and pray there is minimal displacement of modern society in the next couple of years. I DO believe we could use some major adjustments to our federal govern ment though. It is no longer "by the people, for the people", it is a burden on the backs of the people. The "ME" syndrome and "political correctness" are destroying us as a planet, not just a country. You cannot tell anyone they are wrong anymore; no one is accountable for their actions.

Short-sighted people do not look to the future and anticipate what might come to pass... The average Joe Twelve-pack has no plans other than what they are told to do via television or newspaper. Lying has almost become "sport" in American society. What makes you think I am going to believe ANYBODY? Especially large corporations or our beloved federal government? I am hardly short-sighted. I have contingency plans for the next 5 years, whether 010100 goes off with a bang or not.

So, what are YOUR contingency plans? Or, are YOU short-sighted?

What are you "bringing to the party"? If you had to exist in a more primitive lifestyle than you do today, what would be your "justification for existence"?

head tilted questioningly....

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999

Answers

Dog.... As the leader of "my" group of 10-15, I have several demands I will insist be followed post SHTF. Old fashioned values such as honesty, putting the group's interests above their own, hard work, and religious morality will be the foundation and core of our existance. Each new day will be started with a group prayer, and each night will end with thanksgivings. AND I'M NOT A CHURCH GOER EITHER!!!! Everyone will do their best to get along with each other and carry even more of the equal load when needed...OR ELSE!!!! I realize this will be a form of dictatorship, but that's the only way I see any group surviving (at least at first). It seems pretty clear by the low percentage of people that are really preparing, that there are only a few of us capable of leading. After the initial "Firestorms", maybe we can develop good leaders from our groups to branch out and help form other groups dedicated to the same principles. We desperately need to do that as quickly as possible, before the corrupt government we now have can fully get back to it's feet. If we stop at "just surviving", there won't be anything really accomplished and we'll all most likely end up slaves or victems of the new "System".

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 30, 1999.

I'd tell you, Dog, but since I'm just a short hike over the mountains from you I'd hate to catch you and your fellow RioRancholoids slinking around my peaceful little sanctuary....

-- Roger (pecosrog@earthlink.net), July 30, 1999.

Steve,

I agree with you as far as a structured group is concerned. Modern American society is NOT ready for something this drastic theoretically, and the "all is well" crowd will become the "lunatic fringe" at that point.

Roger,

No worries. I am a respectful, God-fearing man and my friends are all good, honest, hard working people. We will not be raiders in the night, nor will we be beggin' at your front door. In fact, the TEOTWAWKI contingency involves a friend's domicile off of south 14, with the well, the generator and the fields. If it goes real bad we could be even closer neighbors.

Got dialogue???

chasin' the ball...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

You have put your finger on the "contingency dilemma" exactly,oh dusty creature.As I see it, the true gravity of the situation will gradually become apparent as the year rolls on & the international dimensions of connectivity become obvious.

What staggers me is that so many people even on the Forums are still expecting that life (in its essense)will get back to the way it is today.Hence the 3/6/12 month preps.Sure I go along with the argument that by preparing one is buying time to decide or adapt to changing circumstances but as you say Y2K has no end detector.

I don't go along totally with your idea of an agrarian lifestyle for everyone.Whilst agriculture may once again become a dominent activity society will still need the butcher,the baker & the candlestick maker .

Our contingency plans consist of being able to move to a sustainable lifestyle based on skills learnt in the past.We have not factored in any modern conveniences such as telephone,computer,electricity or vehicles.We shall have food,water,shelter & warmth + renewable resources for use in bartering or income generation.

Do I really have to have a justification to exist? Am I missing the point here ?

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), July 30, 1999.

"Whatcha gonna do when they come for you"...??

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 30, 1999.

Chris,

Glad you posted. In my original post I wrote:

"In a draconian world, only the strong, and the canny survive."

Do you have "old world" skills, i.e. "butcher, baker, candlestick maker" to appease a warlord or "godfather" in order to live. That was the point of "justification of existence". That is if you can survive the chaos prior to.

Don't get me wrong, no one can see the future. I am just analyzing a "worst case scenario"

I am working on becoming a smith. I currently have most if not all tools in order to do so. I can weld, patch, and shape metal by hand, and a small forge. I practice every week. That is my old world trade.

This old dusty dog is probably going to have to go now...

standin' and shakin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 30, 1999.

Hello Roger- I think you misread Steve's handle/address. It appears that he is from NW Missouri; you might have been thinking Rio Rancho New Mexico....looks like you are from Pecos, NM. My sweetie and I are headed that way next week for a little trout fishing. We are anxious to get out of this heat(heat index 112 today!!)

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), July 30, 1999.

No, jeanne, I was speaking of "The Desert Dog" who indeed braves the scorpions, snakes and sandstorms of Rio Rancho.

Steve, on the other hand might just be "New World Moe" judging from the flames shooting out of the TB2000 responses to his posts today. (Hope you're insulated, Steve!)

Jeanne, I hope it's cool and cloudy when you guys get here, It's been extra rainy and below normal temps. for about the last month but it still gets up to the high 80's every day.(just about right to wade up a trout stream!) I wish I did live in Pecos, actually I'm about 40 miles southwest of there, the pecos part of my addy is a private Morgan horse reference.

Some dialogue, you old Dog...I figure if I can survive any bands of savages/neighbor ladies for the first year I'll be okay. However, if there is no gasoline by year 2002 I (and the rest of the neighborhood ) will have to relocate to somewhere with "free" water. It's also easy to forget just how hard it would be to heat without fuel for the chainsaw or fuel to haul tons of coal. As far as contributing, I've been a carpenter for 25 years, and have been raising and starting horses for 15 years. I can also lay block, rock, adobe and straw bales. I can plaster and decorate cakes (same principle, just different scales.) I spent a year cowboying on a 425 head cow-calf operation with just the ranch foreman and myself making 423 babies. I've also guided deer and elk hunters off and on since high school. On the minus side, as a farmer/gardener I seem to have a bit of a yellow thumb, but I raise an excellent food supply for gophers, rabbits, tomato worms and grass hoppers.

So, Desert Dog, if TSHTF, send me a smoke signal and I'll trade you some good local pinon lumber for a good home-made 2 man buck-saw.

-- Roger (pecosrog@earthlink.net), July 30, 1999.

Desert Dog, shoot me an email, I would love to pick your brain a bit about blacksmithing if you don't mind.

-- Roger (pecosrog@earthlink.net), July 31, 1999.

DD,

It has been said that failing to plan is equivalent to planning to fail. In that regard any plan at all is better than no plan, and a good plan is better yet. So, how do you plan when you don't know what you're planning for?

Scenario- based planning is a limited response if it is done on an inflexible basis. If you arbitrarily decide that X is going to happen, and you plan for X and prepare for X, you may well be screwed to the wall if Y happens. Planning activities (or major lifestyle changes) for other people is all well and good if it is done with their knowledge and active cooperation. But if you assume that various people are going to do what you want them to without working out the details beforehand you may be in for an unpleasant surprise. I am always amused to see what happens to a first-time leader who employs the 'myway or the highway' mode. But in serious circumstances I doubt it would be amusing. If you are basing any sort of strategy on other people, working out the who-does-what details NOW is critical.

There are two basic modes of scenario-based planning that have evolved over the years. There is the "bang" mode, which predicates a sudden sharp break in normality of some scale that has to be dealt with. The other is the "whimper" mode, which assumes a long, drawn- out, wearing decline, sort of a slow-motion train wreck. Any given individual may choose either scenario or a combination of the two for planning purposes, dictated by that individual's world view and previous experience.

So, what do you plan for? In short, you plan to go on doing whatever you can to live as normal a life (within your own established parameters) as you can. You gather the tools, develop the skills and establish or strengthen relationships with other people which will help you accomplish your goals. If this calls for a major lifestyle change, it will take a great deal of forethought, work and expense to make it happen. It will take time, likely years and not weeks or days. It will require commitment from all involved. And even then it may not work out, for any number of reasons.

Depressing? Maybe. But things have ALWAYS changed in the course of human history- there have always been dislocations, hard times, wars, you name it. And people have always muddled through, or triumphed, or been overcome by the events around them. Always. Now is no different. It's only different for most of us.

One of the reasons it's different for some of us is that it's causing some serious examination for the first time in a long time- self- examination, and evaluation of what's important in life. Like your last question, about 'justification for existence.' I won't try to answer that one or a couple of the others you've posed here, because this has run on long enough already. But I think it is important to remind everyone that while what you FEEL is important, and what you THINK is important, what you DO is critical. And your time for DOING things is growing short.

This is the way the world ends Not with a bang but a whimper. - T.S. Eliot, _The Hollow Men_

-- Lee (lplapin@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.

Thank you everyone for your replies to an unpleasant subject... I don't feel so disconnected with what I think. DGI's I have spoken to in casual conversation can't even "wrap their brains around the concept" of EOTW...

Roger, I'll e-mail soon... don't expect a lot of info, I am not quite a journeyman in my eyes... but I will try...

regards,

chasin' a lizard...

The Dog

-- The Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 31, 1999.

Roger...Crispy Critter here. Got bar-b-q sauce?

-- steve (steve@NWMo.com), July 31, 1999.

An interesting thread. Even the most hardened GI's have planned to return to mass-produced resources at some point. Will your batteries wear out? What if your solar panels get shot up? That generator runs on fuel, doesn't it? Just how much corn can you grow without nitrate and steady water? I wonder if hunters will be plentiful... I doubt that game will be. Can you make wax? Soap? Brass casings? Glasses?

Unless you have a group of multi-talented, dedicated, trustworthy friends, there can be no long term plan. Even then, the best of us may become predators to survive. NOW, HAVE YOU PLANNED FOR THAT CONTINGENCY?

-- Gunner (tailgunner@hotmail.com), July 31, 1999.