August 21, GPS and the Grid

By Tim Castleman

Copyright 1999, all rights reserved

Like the ripples on a pond when a stone is tossed in, Midnight, August 21, 1999 signals the beginning of the instability of the grid. That is when the GPS satellite clocks will reset to zero, and certain devices that rely on that signal will fail. The actual quantity of devices that will fail is unknown. Receivers manufactured before 1994 are especially prone to failure. All utilities employ a very precise portion of that timing signal as a source for an array of data recording and control systems. Timing is everything in the utility business. Especially power generation and transmission.

Large amounts of bulk power are shipped around via a massive web of interconnected high voltage wires. Variations are measured in every imaginable way, but frequency is the most watched. Small moves in frequency can develop into big troubles, tripping automatic devices and overloading things here and there. That's how brownouts and blackouts happen.

A sophisticated computer system keeps track of all this, adjusts things, records things, accomplishing major tasks of data management that would require hundreds of personnel manning millions of switches, which would be far more error prone than the computer. These systems are referred to as SCADA and EMS.

So, when the timing signal data starts to get a little screwy, things will begin to get a bit unstable. Not all at once, it will be a cumulative effect. Small errors will enter the stream of information constantly flowing from facility to facility, via satellites (more about these later), phone wires, radio signals etc.

These sophisticated systems will initially make minor adjustments automatically, and certain operations always require operator intervention and or approval. These minor adjustments are recorded and logged, used for future forecasting and so forth. So now the slight errors have entered the database. Once there, the corruption, and eventual failure of the system has begun.

As larger scale testing gets underway during August and September, the potential exists, and in fact has happened, of system failures due to the testing. Human error, Back up systems not ready, whatever. More corrupt data enters the stream.

October marks the new final deadline for 100% readiness. Even that has become a farce. Gone is the term "Compliant", no one seriously thinks that could happen, and they are right. There is no way to fully remediate and test the whole system. It simply cannot be done, no matter how much time we had.

Instead we have "Ready", which is a watered down version of "Compliant". In short, it says that pretty much any method goes, windowing, date interception, date expansion, TSR's (an old fashioned DOS thing that resides in memory, and caused all sorts of havoc then), whatever. Patch it. It's ok. Testing will reveal any problems, and the emergency response teams will solve them. Becoming "Y2K Ready" simply means you are working on it, and have a team of experts on call to fix problems AS THEY COME UP.

No one knows for sure how many systems will fail, or when. A certain percentage of failures, added up over time will lead to spot outages. For example, the NERC database reports that out of 193 EASTERN Interconnect companies, 181 expect a failure. This failure could be something as simple as a fire alarm going off, or security system going haywire, or, it could happen in a SCADA /EMS system. Of course the latter is a worst case scenario, right? Of course.

Here is a list of "Exceptions" allowed by the NERC for utilities reporting,

Non Nuclear exceptions:

Emmision monitoring Generator controls SCADA/EMS Communications Customer support systems Justifications:

Upgrades and Testing Vendor availability So, added to the watered down, "Y2K Ready" requirement, there are "Exceptions" allowed if the reason for non-readiness is due to Upgrades and Testing OR Vendor availability.

A company can claim readiness, even if they are not ready, simply by stating that the delay is due to Upgrades and Testing, to any of those systems listed above, or, they are waiting for a vendor to respond in some way. Most are waiting on the vendors.

I am using data from the July 10 EASTERN Interconnection report to the NERC for this article. In the summary of the data collected, the average completion status is given as 99%. That means on average, utilities in the eastern interconnect did not make the July 1 deadline, even the greatly relaxed "Ready" deadline!

Names are not given in the copy I have. Each utility is identified by a number only.

Back to the satellites. There are 24 for the GPS alone.

There are thousands more for all kinds of communication. On board those satellites - the same technology we are wrestling with here, only worse. It is not possible to physically access them at all. This is the equipment called for in all contingency plan details made public to date, to provide back-up communications for all utility companies, with a hot line directly to the DOE.

In addition to the obvious rollover issues, solar flare activity is increasing now and is expected to continue to increase culminating with an 11 year high peak in December, 1999 and January, 2000.

These flares generate enormous amounts of electromagnetic energy. The last peak was in 1989 and was responsible for the grid outage in Quebec. Satellites are at such great risk that evasive maneuvers are planned during these times, things like turning some part of it away from the sun, putting exposed units in "Sleep" mode etc.

The President issued an Executive Order July 14, 1999, which states in part:;

"The NIAC will report to the President through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, who shall assure appropriate coordination with the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy."

NIAC = NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE ASSURANCE COUNCIL.

http://www.pub.whitehouse.gov/uri-res/I2R?urn:pdi://oma.eop.gov.us/1999/7/15/10.text.1

National Security Affairs is involved now. For the next two years, three if needed.

To summarize:

About half of the companies will not be testing the work they are doing. About the same number will not make this information available to the public.

As a whole, the industry did not meet the July 1 deadline The "Exceptions" list includes the most critical systems for power generation and transmission.

In May, 1999, 42% of Public utilities and 18% of Co-ops knew they would not be ready by the July 1 deadline, and so did the NERC Y2K Coordinator, Gerry Cauley. When asked if they had completed testing of SCADA/EMS systems, 17 said N/A, 90 said yes, and 50 said NO. Also, 44 had not completed contingency plans (again missing the July 1 deadline). Of 193 EASTERN Interconnect companies responding, 181 expect failures Nothing is mentioned about the GPS in either of these reports

Executive Order July 14 would not be necessary for a system as close to "Ready" as claimed. These are disturbing facts. Even more disturbing is the ongoing cover up and media campaign to keep these details secret. The general public does not get much of a chance to make prudent preparations. One of the slides uses this statement as a title:

"Defense in Depth Strategy: Emergency Preparedness is Important Step"

So, as concerns the NERC and utility companies, Emergency preparedness is an important step. But when the average Joe Public says that, he is branded as a lunatic fringe alarmist.

Ok, this lunatic fringe alarmist has uncovered hard evidence of the cover up. I have several Powerpoint presentations intended for internal use at the NERC and almost 8 megabytes of Excel Spreadsheet data to prove it.

The bottom line is that no one knows for sure how much will fail, just that it will.

Sources: Excel Spreadsheet dated July 10, 1999 - Summaries of June 1999 reports by utilities to NERC "An Industry Status Report and Plan", May 12, 1999 by Gerry Cauley, Y2K Program coordinator, NERC (Powerpoint presentation) Salt River Project Year 2000 information, "Technology newsletter", February, 1999

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 29, 1999

Answers

I have a question. Will the GPS satelites be the ones to go down or just the ground-based receivers? Or both?

-- Chuck (cline@e-mail.com), July 29, 1999.

Are you the same Tim Castleman promoting that wacky 13-month year re-definition as "the solution" to Y2K? Its a few threads down.

Hate to sound like a polly, but I don't think this guy has his head screwed on quite tight enough. Stuff just seems to be spilling out.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

OK King...you once asked if I mud wrestled. Well...just for you honey, I have spent the last two weeks at the local Mud Wrestling school. I am ready!! I weigh 322 lbs, have long stringy hair (on head, legs and arm pits) A large wart on the end of my nose with hair here too. ERRrrrr...wait...no...its my twin sister that has the wart. Everyone tells us we are mirror images and I get confused. Seriously...is this guy telling us that we could have power failures due to the GPS roll over? What is REALLY expected from the roll over. Will it be a non event like 999? Taz...who has really gotten into mud wrestling. LOL

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

I hope someone will put this post on the Rick Cowles utility forum and ask for comments from those folks.

-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), July 29, 1999.

Gee Tim, I don't know how to tell you this but you don't have a clue as to what your are talking about.

The GPS satellite's don't reset. It's the ground recievers. And what resets is the week counter. It's fixable with a software patch or chip replacement. Been there, done that. This is an "old" problem.

Timeing is everything? Not really. Not the way you mean it. I.E. For the Western Grid the CA. ISO is the time keeper. You don't have to correct until you are out of synch with them by 2 seconds. Most of the high quality GPS clocks will remain within milliseconds for weeks at a time, even after they lose synch with the satellites

Frequency varries quite a bit when lines trip due to lightning or other causes. It's how much it changes and for what length of time that determines whether you trip off or not. And it's not the main cause of brownouts or blackouts. Usually that's undervoltage.

You don't have a clue as to what SCADA does. SCADA only uses GPS for record keeping.

Solar Flares. Yes they "caused" the Quebec outage. It was unexpected then. It's not unexpected this time. There is a lot of monitoring going on now that wasn't then.

Utilites don't use satellites. All that extra distance makes things too slow. That's the timing that is critical. If it's used for back up it's voice communication back up. Not control.

Don't give up your day job to be a Utility Expert. It's obvious you read a few things from NERC, etc. and think you UNDERSTAND.

You are clueless.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), July 29, 1999.

Do not feed the doomer trolls.

-- cd (artful@dodger.com), July 29, 1999.

The Engineer: You are WRONG about one thing, utilities DO use satellites. They use the satellites (FAS) to transmit work orders to technicians. Half the time the system is down and the technicians get their work orders the old fashion way. My friends computer in his work truck has a sticker on it that says "Y2K Compliant with a smiley face."

-- ((((((( (((((((@))))).com), July 29, 1999.

"The" Engineer,

A clue: the week counters in the GPS satellites do roll over, reset if you prefer, to 0.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), July 29, 1999.

Engineer:

"It is better to keep silent and be thought a fool, thank to speak up and remove all doubt." - A. Lincoln

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 29, 1999.

THAN to speak up... (damned rented fingers...)

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 29, 1999.

Engineer: I say, read it again. This time slowly, and try not to get so emotional. It interferes with objectivity.

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 29, 1999.

He is right about the calender thing. PMS dictates whether we will have a holiday.

-- KoFE (your@town.USA), July 29, 1999.

This is complete BS.

I posted the long exlanation not long ago, won't repeat, suggest read Dick Mills's excellent debunk of this view if you want an easy-to- understand explanation of the fact that an electricty grid is self- synchronizing.

But, really, just ask: how did they manage to generate electricity at all in the 1960s, if it needs GPS timekeeping to "synchronize" it. Heck, it was working fine in the 1920s, probably with no electronics at all!

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), July 29, 1999.

Okay, what's the real story...can anyone corraborate Tim's info?

-- I'm (with@titude.now), July 29, 1999.

Here's the link to Dick Mills article on grid synchronization. No need for GPS according to him.

One thing that I found interesting:

"If we do it wrong in a real power grid, the result is truly violent. So-called missynchronization can result in explosions, fires and many millions of dollars of damage."

<:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), July 29, 1999.

Anybody that would like a copy of the files I am referring to, send me an e-mail. I will do a one time send as even zipped these files are about 2 meg. Well over 8 meg when unzipped. I truly would welcome more analysis and interpretation of the data. I warn you in advance, this is pretty detailed material, you will need Excel, Powerpoint and an unzip utility.

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 29, 1999.

Taz, your dedication to this fast growing sport should be an inspiration to women everywhere!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

King, I'm inspired by Taz, but I'm a scrawny 250 pounds. Taz, do you think I'm in fighting trim? I wanted to be a Suomo, but they said I was too petite.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

Taz,

Think between you and me we could handle this King dude. We can roll him in the mud and throw him in our icy creek. Think this would cool down his libido quickly. He might even develop an adversion to mud by the time we're thru with him.

-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 29, 1999.

I say we dip the King of Spain in chocolate, hang him upside down and let the cows lick him to death. I'll bring the popcorn and peanuts, this sounds more fun than mud wrestling.

-- Popcorn Sue (popcorn Sue@popcornsue.com), July 29, 1999.

I don't know what impact the GPS rollover will have. I do know that I plan to stay at home that weekend. My friends want me to fly down to Southern California that weekend, and I told them that there are two periods when I definitely won't fly -- August 21 - 22 and New Years. They think that I am paranoid, but why tempt fate?

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), July 29, 1999.

@ I didnt say utilities dont use satellites I said they dont use them for control.

Utilities don't use satellites. All that extra distance makes things too slow. That's the timing that is critical. If it's used for back up it's voice communication back up. Not control.  To quote myself.

And not all of them use that system to send work orders. Many utilities are quite small in both geography and number of people. Sending order around by satellite as opposed to handing out paper wouldnt pay for itself. You yourself said it didnt work half the time and they had to get the WOs the old fashion way. Sending out WOs or using it as a back up for voice is a far cry from using them to control or trip anything.

Jerry, yes you are sort of right. The week 10 bit value counter is in the receivers. It was first set to 1980. The signal that sends out the week (and the seconds) from the satellite does roll over. But it is just a counter. The program that interprets it is in the receiver. If you wanted you could program it to read 8-21-550 BC. They will have to be reprogrammed in another 19 years and so on.

Tim. I did read it slowly. You still dont know what you are talking about. As Nigel wrote it is complete BS. You really dont have a clue as to how the system works. It was around a long time before GPS.

Mills is right about synchronization. But there are different types. A slight error in 60 Hz isnt as important as an error in phase angle. Thats what causes the damage he was talking about. If you close a breaker in at the wrong part of the wave you can get a lot of bad results. Its called a synch. check and you can be a little off but not much.

-- The Engineer (The Engineer@tech.com), July 30, 1999.

Engineer; Your response sounds a bit desperate to me. Thanks for the opinion though. Perhaps you could comment on the REST of the information I supplied?

-- Tim Castleman (aztc@earthlink.net), July 31, 1999.

Could someone please tell me IF there is going to be problems with utilities where the GPS is concerned? I don't know about these things and am curious and wondering.....

-- T. Benson (wondering@andcurious.com), August 01, 1999.