http://www.it-director.com/./99-07-01-2.html

The self styled Y2K pundits have been crying "wolf" so loudly and for so long that we've tired of their message. Many of the stories put about by people selling Y2K products or services have been frankly unbelievable. We also know many organisations that have very competent IT groups who are confident that they have a sound plan in place.

But stories filtering out recently suggest that there may still be some serious concerns. IBM has confirmed that its Y2K related projects are reaching a cut off point with some actions incomplete. While Europe and the US seem to be meeting the target, there is concern about Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Presumably the latter will catch up "manana". Now it has been claimed that large European and Far East suppliers of IT products may suffer shipment delays as a result of problems in transport, utilities, banking and telecoms. We are also hearing of investment funds surveying companies in which they are heavily invested, with potentially worrying outcomes.

In the US, the Congress is close to reaching agreement on legislation to limit lawsuits over Y2K issues. The UK has no similar plans, but the two situations are not directly comparable. US courts interpret questions of liability much more broadly than UK courts, and commonly impose much higher damages. Even a modest amount of Y2K disruption could have been enough to cause chaos in the US legal system and fallout affecting many companies.

The suspicion remains that much of the noise is still cries of "wolf". IBM is not in danger of collapse over Y2K problems. It is much more likely to be making public comments to pressure laggards than to warn of impending disaster. We do have concerns, though, that while most organisations will muddle through, there may also be some significant problems. More information may come to light as we move into the final quarter of the year in September, and questions of liability loom large.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), July 01, 1999

Answers

reg first i heard of these developments. guess i havn't given them much thought. thanks for the heads up bud

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 01, 1999.

See also IBM in Y2K Crisis, which was previously posted but largely ignored.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), July 01, 1999.

thanks reg for the trip. it a truly alarming situation that should probably be looked into.

thanks again.

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 01, 1999.

thanks reg for the tip. its a truly alarming situation that should probably be looked into. and hopefully soon.

thanks again.

-- corrine l (corrine@iwaynet.net), July 01, 1999.

"Infomagic has a compellingly accurate grasp of history. Here is a sample of the future he envisions:

>This is something that's never happened before. There has never been a civilization that's been so dependent on automation, on a single point of failure.

I'm not so sure it hasn't happened before, although on a smaller scale. Many civilizations have come to a sudden end without being conquered by some outside force -- the Anasazi and Mayans in America and, within our own lineage, the Roman Empire.

Indeed I think that the collapse of the Roman Empire displays many similarities to our situation today. Y2K is only _one_ of the factors leading to our destruction, just as it's historical equivalent was only one factor in the fall of the Roman Empire. Back then, that equivalent factor was the inability of the ruling group to maintain administrative control over the empire as it grew beyond the size which could be managed with their available tools. This bears a chilling resemblance to the situation we can expect after the inevitable failure of a large portion of our administrative "tools" in the first month of 2000. The main (and frightening) difference is that our tools will fail much faster and much, much harder.

But this is not the only factor. Economically, the Romans experienced a currency and debt crisis similar to, but smaller and simpler than that we face today. They debased and inflated their "money" just as we have done with our fiat currencies (only ours is worse and more dishonest). They ran up vast public and private debts which grew so large that they could no longer be serviced in the event of a significant economic downturn. Nowhere near as big a debt as ours, of course, because they lacked the mathematical skills to invent derivatives and they had no plastics to stamp into credit cards.

Militarily, the Roman Empire was unbeatable by any other force on earth, just like America and the Western Allies today. But, like us, they ruled over a vast "world" which stretched the limits of their economic and administrative abilities beyond their capacity to maintain control (and they didn't even have to deal with the logistical nightmares of Y2K). They could deal with any single upstart easily, just as we did with Madman Insane. But in the end they had to deal with multiple uprisings throughout their world, until they lost the logistical and manpower capacity to deal with them all at the same time. Like them, after New Year's Evil, we will die the death of a thousand cuts from all of the little brushfire wars already smoldering all over the planet.

Politically, the Romans governed to appease the short term appetites of the increasingly ignorant and idle masses -- instead of taking on the hard work and responsibility of building a real future for their children. Scared of angering the "citizens" who kept them in power, the last emperors bribed them with shallow entertainments like the public baths, spectacular "games" of "sport" to amuse them, and government funded "arts" to convince the "intelligentsia" how big their brains were. Isn't this what _both_ political wings have done for the last 70 years -- bribing and appeasing the increasingly ignorant and idle masses who elect them with short term "benefits" to be paid for by excessive and destructive taxes on the true producers of their wealth? With impossible to deliver promises of easy and comfortable retirement to be paid for by someone else, sometime in the future, with money that doesn't exist?

Spiritually, they lost faith in the gods for whom they had built their empire and they lost the moral foundations (limited though they were) which had given them their strength and greatness. They swung their moral compass instead toward the immediate self and began to worship government itself, even calling their emperors "gods". Today, far too many have lost faith in the one true, living and loving God who has given us everything that we have. How many now believe instead in the Beast of Government, accepting the Mark of Social inSecurity, of the Welfare Drug and of Affirmative Hate? How many women have deserted their duty to their families and husbands, in favor of the "freedom" of servitude to someone else, falsely believing that government will take better care of their children than they or their husbands? How many spineless men have allowed and even encouraged this to happen?

Morally, the last emperors were truly vile and evil men, placing their perverted peccadillos and personal power before the true responsibilities of their office. Nero fiddled while Rome burned without the leadership it needed. Today, Clinton fiddles with himself in a sordid back room while the whole world begins to burn in a global economic and technological meltdown. Instead of providing the leadership we need, he is more interested in being worshipped for his "legacy" and in satisfying his insane lust for power over the lives of others. Like Nero and Caligula, our (mis)leader is a mentally deranged pervert whose personal behavior is so disgusting we cannot even talk of it in front of our children. And like the Romans we have only ourselves to blame. Our leaders reflect ourselves and our own moral values.

Finally, the Romans had this teensy, weensy, little technological problem. If there was one technology without which the Roman Empire could never have existed, it would have to be large scale, public plumbing. Without it, and the attendant water supply and sewage disposal systems, they could never have built and sustained the first city state with a population greater than a million. Without an extensive local irrigation system, they could never have fed such a population, and without such a large population they could never have built such an empire. Their little problem was lead poisoning, which led to brain damage and, eventually, reduced their ability to maintain their civilization. Technically, it would have been _so_ easy to replace the lead with copper, but those pipes, pots and pans were simply _everywhere_ and there just weren't enough plumbers to fix the problem before the year zero zero . . .

...
The result will inevitably be a reduction in carrying capacity. In this case, a reduction in the ability to "carry" goods and people from one place to another. This, of course, will lead to shortages of food and other key items, and to a reduction in economic activity, in direct proportion to the fraction of capacity which is lost.

But in a larger sense, "carrying capacity" is a biological term which refers to the ability of a given habitat to sustain and support a particular population. A few years back, here in Arizona, the greenie meanies managed to impose a ban on the hunting of deer on the Kaibab Plateau (famous for it's trophy Mule deer). For years before, the number of deer had been kept fairly precisely at the carrying capacity of the habitat by means of controlled hunting just before the onset of winter and the lowered availability of food. The very first year of the ban, the Kaibab herd went into winter with a population far greater than the carrying capacity. A few months later, in the very depth of winter, the result was a cruel death by starvation for thousands of these beautiful deer as they competed for an almost non-existent food supply, consumed too early by the larger population. Even the early, stronger survivors were weakened to the point that they could not survive the worst of the winter. More than two-thirds died in that first winter, and next spring the herd was less than one third of the normal carrying capacity. It took _years_ for the herd to recover from this single event.

The human race lives in a habitat which not only includes but is for its greatest part completely dependent on computer based technology. This includes (but is not limited to) our entire social, financial, medical, industrial, transportation, hydro, energy, communications and agricultural base. Take away even a small part of that technology, and the carrying capacity of the global habitat for human beings will be greatly reduced. Go back to pre-computer days, as some have suggested, and the carrying capacity will be decimated. But the number of people who die will not be merely equal to the difference in the present and the post 00 carrying capacities. Like the Kaibab deer, the early survivors will be weakened to the point that they will not able to rebuild the "habitat", and many of them will also die, later, of starvation, disease, conflict and just plain cold.

But we have it even worse than the Kaibab deer. The regrowth of their habitat did not depend on their own actions. Ours does. With a lower population we will be less able to address problems which we cannot handle even now with the present population, a fully functional infrastructure and a vibrant economy. In addition, after the fall, more of our strength and resources will have to be devoted just to the act of staying alive (something we haven't really had to do for a long time). Inevitably, the world's population will continue to drop. It will enter a "deflationary spiral" much like the present Asian economies. Like them, there is no longer _anything_ we can do to prevent this, or to rapidly recover. We've left it too late.

Something similar, but far less drastic, happened to the Roman Empire and it's descendant the Holy Roman Empire of Europe. After the initial collapse, the survivors were even less able to maintain the infrastructure of the old empire. So it deteriorated even further, the carrying capacity was reduced further, and ever fewer survivors had it ever tougher year by year. They entered a deflationary population and technology spiral which continued right up until after the Black Plague, the death of half of Europe and, finally, the Renaissance.

This is why I have consistently predicted the loss of at least half to two-thirds of the world's population and a very, very, long period for recovery. Our problems are far more serious, far more immediate, and our fall will be faster and deeper than that of the Roman Empire. We may not even survive. Any of us.

...
And a thousand years thereafter.

Five miles from where I spent my early childhood in England are the ruins of an old Roman fort, built two thousand years ago to guard the mouth of the largest local river. It was a long way for a nine year old boy to pedal a bike, but I went there many times to explore and to imagine. In particular, I would go there every Easter when, according to legend, the old Roman town would magically come alive again.

More than one Good Friday evening I spent there, listening for and almost hearing the ancient sounds, looking for and almost seeing two thousand year old ghosts from a long dead civilization. I think about it often now, as I try to prepare my community for long term survival.

Get a sense of history, Pollyanna. It's coming soon to a city near you. "

TOTWAWKI TOTWAWKI TO

-- worse (it will be@yoda.force), July 01, 1999.

Awesome worse,

Cut and paste already done, this is a keeper.

DWGI's might even read it....

gettin' a drink...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), July 01, 1999.

FYI re the source of that first article:

IT-Director.com was launched at the House of Commons on the 31st March 1999 and is an eCommunity of IT directors. It is also a complete information & knowledge based service which is provided free of charge to IT directors and business leaders.

IT-Director.com is brought to you by Bloor Research in association with CERTUS and Silicon.com. It is designed to provide you with a one stop source of all the IT news, information, analysis and advice which you require. As this service develops you will have exclusive access to the highest quality information on IT and leadership issues.

IT-Director.com is populated from a group of 1000 IT directors who have been selected on the basis of having the top IT jobs in the companies and organisations with the largest IT budgets in the UK.

Now consider the thread about UK Passports, documenting multiple failures and a "ripple effect". The article from IT-Director acknowledges the potential for multiple points of failure.

Those crying "wolf" may indeed have made a mistake. They probably should have been yelling "wolf PACK!"

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), July 01, 1999.

I also think it could be far worse... Many have said that the computers will think it is 1900, and we'll be living as though it is 1900. There's some truth to this, but it's worse. The carrying capacity of the world will be lower than it was a century ago. It will be like horse and buggy days, only without the horses and the buggys and a lot of other things people used to make their lives work for them, like skills. If we're able to recover from death and destruction from violence and disease, it could well be another 1000 years before we work our way back to the world population of 1900, if we choose to grow that fast.

-- Dancr (minddancr@aol.com), July 01, 1999.

Infomagic doesn't know his history, and for that reason you should treat his doom-mongering with healthy skepticism.

Rome didn't collapse overnight, nor in a generation. The empire was at its peak in the early first century. It then declined slowly over three or more hundred years, that's at least 10 modern generations, rather more in Roman days. Historians debate the causes endlessly: the decay of political institutions is one probable cause, climate change another. Incidentally the most infamous of Rome's insane tyrants, Caligula and Nero, ruled during Rome's peak years rather than its decline.

Also the common view that the Roman empire fell completely into a dark age is untrue. Certainly, Western Europe did; climate change (colder), plague, and (possibly) a volcanic catastrophe are the culprits. But the Roman Empire regrouped, the focus of civilisation moving to Constantinople where climate was more conducive to civilisation. The Eastern empire never fell as a civilisation, though it underwent later conquest and changes of rulers and religion. Turkey is its modern heir (not Italy!).

As far as I can tell one can learn absolutely nothing about Y2K from Rome. The history of Rome followed the same broad pattern as most classical empires; a rapid rise, a plateau, and a gradual decline, over many generations of people.

WE might learn more from the history of plagues; these act on the same sort of timescale as Y2K, ie nearly instantly (and are still a threat to humankind; the Spanish flu of 1918 could easily have been worse). However, the trouble is that there's no common pattern other than a short-term social upheaval. In the twilight of Rome in Western Europe, a plague ushered in a dark age. Later in mediaeval Europe, the black death seems to have had precisely the opposite effect; it destroyed feudalism and ushered in a new era of prosperity, trade, and new discoveries.

At which stage history links up with science in more ways than the historical. These are cases of punctuated equilibrium, of catastrophe in the mathematical as well as the human sense. If Y2K is a big deal, it'll act similarly to create short-term chaos and longer-term irreversible changes in the rules by which today's world operates. Whether those will be for the good for for the bad or merely different is, IMHO, impossible to predict. The Chinese curse applies: we may be about to be living in interesting times.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), July 02, 1999.

By the way, the UK passports fiasco also illustrates the way in which a crisis can be surmounted at a stroke, just as soon as it is realized that the system is broken and change is inevitable.

The government announced today that anyone with a passport expiring in the near future can go to a post office and get an official stamp affixed extending its validity for another two years. Simple! This takes probably 4/5 of the passport applications out of the passport system, reducing workload on the passport office while the new computer system is fixed (or scrapped and extra staff recruited to do it manually). Only puzzle is why does it always take them so long?

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), July 02, 1999.

Nice observations, Nigel. The Infomagic scenario was debated and discussed last year on csy2k by people more well-versed in Roman history than our friend, Infomagic. And while, as you say, it probably was determined by many factors, among those rarely mentioned are:

Irrigated cultivation, on a scale large enought to support Roman populations has been known to salinize the soil and/or waterlog it. It had occurred before in the fertile crescent, leading to the decline of the early Abbysinian cultures. In fact it continues to this day, being responsible for the destruction of more arable land than any other cause.

Additionally, to smelt copper and tin for bronze takes a lot of charcoal which takes a lot of trees. The farther you have to go to get resources, the more energy and land required---one motivation for conquest.

Soil depletion and energy requirements undoubtedly played their role in the fall of the Roman empire just as it is playing its part in the fall of ours.

Hallyx

"Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so." --- Douglas Adams

-- (Hallyx@aol.com), July 02, 1999.

Not to mention a Roman army spread too thin. Not enough troops to fight germanic tribes in Europe. (Gee, why does that sound familiar?) Can't blame it all on climate and resources. The victorious germanic tribes let alot of the 'technology' of the Romans fall into disrepair. That as much as anything set them back a century or two.

-- (history@gottoloveit.com), July 02, 1999.

History

So true, as illistrated by their desire to wipe out the Picts, a losing battle in a strange land. Unfortunately the Picts were distroyed from deceit within.

Y2K is a threat to information systems, an example would be the eras when libraries were burned and information transfer was supressed.

IMHO

-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 02, 1999.

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-- alsdladjslasjd adjasj (ljasdlkj@yahoo.net), May 24, 2004.

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-- LDSJAJSDLAJKDldskksdf (sadlkjasdlk@yahoo.com), May 24, 2004.