http://webserv.vnunet.com/www_user/plsql/pkg_vnu_news.right_frame?p_story=85894

Organisations weakened by millennium bug problems will be preyed upon by their better prepared rivals, Gwynneth Flower, director of watchdog Action 2000, has warned.

Speaking at a Financial Services Authority conference on the millennium bug in London late last week, Flower commented:

"There is no doubt that the more well prepared businesses in this country will exploit the competitive advantage of being well prepared," she said. "Those companies who find themselves in a strong position will buy up their brethren who have failed to take action, or simply put them out of business."

Flower warned that the same principal applies on an international level: "Countries which have been well prepared will put other, less prepared, countries out of business."

She said countries in the developing world risk economic catastrophe as their ability to do business degrades and spirals out of control, forcing developed countries to help regain control.

Flower went on to say that small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) pose the greatest risk to the British economy.

She said 38 per cent have still taken no action to prevent problems caused by the bug and predicted that 65 per cent of SMEs will go out of business if their IT support fails for two weeks or more.

"The vulnerability of these businesses is very high and they risk putting to naught all the hard work that everyone has been doing up to now. I think there will be a lemming like cry for help at the very last minute," she said.

Flower added that another threat to stability is posed by deliberate scaremongering, saying: "The biggest threat to all of us is the unpredictability of how the public will behave. The deliberate mischief makers will have a field day and we have to be prepared to deal with that. We could be swept up in 'millenniumism'."

Flower said that there will be numerous macroeconomic effects of the millennium bug, which will be experienced for many months after the date rollover.

Many SMEs will suffer cash flow problems and may be forced out of business because orders will dry up as larger companies run down there stocks of critical supplies. Conversely, strategic IT projects that have been delayed until the New Year will boost demand in some sectors.

-- regular (zzz@z.z), June 28, 1999

Answers

In life there are two important things that happen daily: "predators" and "prey"...this exists at all levels, everywhere...This is your life.

I smell a rat somewhere in the near future, can't say exactly what it is (y2k or ?) but I smell a rat. Hope everybody is prepared not to be on the down side of the above scenario as much as possible...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 28, 1999.

Why would "SME's" here go down the tubes??? If he is right that a TWO WEEK computer crash is FATAL, why won't it happen here??

Remember when a few years ago, every large outfit was downsizing, it was said that SMALL BUSINESS was the backbone of the American economy??

-- k. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), June 28, 1999.

Why is this not scary?

Most SMEs use off the shelf software. Download a patch, test the bios, you're done. I work for an SME, we had more to do than that, which we did, but we are waiting another month or two on the patches. Why? Because the patches change about once a month and we got tired of loading them. Time to "remediate" probably about 6 hours.

Two week computer crashand they close. Yeah...uh-huh. Sure. If she had a clue she would know how full of holes that is. It is a lot easier for a SME to adapt to an ever-changing enviroment (which is the nature of an SME to begin with, things that make a large company not even blink makes an SME jump through hoops) than a large company. Sorry folks, but SMEs are not as vunerable as you think.

-- Workin For (the@man.com), June 28, 1999.

Flower seems to be describing the free market. A strange beast from the perspective of a government bureaucrat, perhaps, but a fact of life for the rest of us.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), June 28, 1999.

I feel sorry for the ignorant. If you think a computer crash will melt society, you need to research the asian chernobyl(sp?) virus. THE WORST computer crash in history. Last time I checked, asia was still on the globe.

Do some research before you spout off, or look like an idiot.

-- (sympathy@for.the unlearned), June 28, 1999.

"Experts warn of Y2K trade upheaval - Each nation's problem will become a global one"

http://www.joc.com/issues/990308/p1age1/e20324.htm

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 28, 1999.

"Do some research before you spout off, or look like an idiot."

You would be an even bigger idiot if you think computers are your only problem in the coming months! How can you compare a virus in China to whats coming?

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), June 28, 1999.

"You would be an even bigger idiot if you think computers are your only problem in the coming months! How can you compare a virus in China to whats coming? "

Because it wasn't limited to China.

-- Do Your Research (school@taughtyou.nothing), June 28, 1999.

If I recall the figures correctly, the countries hardest hit by the computer virus had 4% of their PCs affected. Y2K could easily hit a lot more than 4% of PCs, and will affect more than just PCs.

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), June 28, 1999.

Linkmeister - Turkey got hit pretty hard by that virus - I think it was quite a bit over 4%.

As for the predator/prey thing re companies weakened for any reason, I always thought that was a given.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), June 30, 1999.

man is on top of the food chain because we're the best killers.the thin veneer of society is maintained by working comodes and the supply chain.I didn't make this world,and I don't make the rules.I'll take it as it comes without feeling sorry for myself.there is me and my loved ones and everyone else,I am not afraid to kill.I refuse to become food .I will eat.there is predator.there is prey.weak.strong.there is 6 months left to get in your liberal whinning.the world just may change.

-- thewayitisandthewayitshopuldbe (don'tmistakemeforatroll@large.com), June 30, 1999.