I've downloaded the pdf file of the IEA (International Energy Agency) report on the status of the oil industry and read it twice and shared it with a number of people.

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/homepage.htm

I have two questions I'm hoping to get answers for.

#1. How credible is the IEA?

#2. Has anyone read this report and still doubted a global depression next year?

I've read and shared the May 1999 GAO report on the readiness of the oil and gas industries too.

http://www.gao.gov

Of course I'm inclined to trust them because they're government. (That's a joke but the information doesn't seem overly "spun".)

Basically I want a reality check here. Seems blatantly obvious to me that the supply is going to be significantly reduced and prices greatly increased. But I'm very open to hearing differing conclusions.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), June 11, 1999

Answers

Buy oil futures!!!! then bail by Nov. Having been in the oil industry one of the things that was obvious was the supply chain from the gas stations to the Jobbers to the pipeline companies to the Majors to the shippers to the refiners to the drillers----- all look for any excuse to raise prices. Any excuse!!! Even if all of the analysis are off about Nigeria,Venezuela,and Saudi Arabia being on the bottom of the remediation efforts. (god, did I really read this?) the oil industry will find a way to take advantage of y2k for profits!! I have got to get that 55gal. drum of kero ordered Soon!!!

Respectfully

-- David Butts (dciinc@aol.com), June 11, 1999.

I read the IEA information and was indeed struck by the implications of what I read.

Since then I noticed that one Lane Core, contributor to the Westergaard Site also was citing that information, and later Paul Milne quoted Lane Core's article using that information.

I don't know much about the IEA, but I do know that as a general rule these groups have an incentive to express optimism, not pessimism. If I am right about an incentive toward optimism, then the IEA reports on oil industry un-preparedness is ominous indeed.

In my mind, the articles you refer to are the most memorable Y2k stuff I have read.

"regular" started a thread on this very issue on May 19, 1999. Only one optimist posted to that thread. "Morgan" said the following:

>flame, if you're really hankering, I'll try to get a response to this soon (haven't even finished clicking through/reading yet)... I'm leaving tonight, haven't finished packing 6 or 7 suitcases, lot of last minute things, and after that.... jet lag, moving, settling into a new house, new job, etc etc.... but, bookmark the thread and i'll pop back in, promise ....

>As far as "being hatched from the same egg as the libs", I think I'll take exception to that.

>-- Morgan (morgan96@netscape.net), May 19, 1999.

Almost a month has now passed. Neither Morgan nor any other optimist has come back to the thread. If there are any optimists out there that would like to take up where Morgan failed, here is the URL: http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000qfO

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), June 11, 1999.

I won't vouch for the IEA, but I will say that over the years, I've found GAO reports to be outstanding. They work for the Congress, not the administration... They try to tell it like it is, without covering up, without sugar coating... And they are paid to find the problems.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 12, 1999.

Gus:

Just went to IEA site and frankly was a little stunned by the breadth and depth of it all. Can you give me any pointers as to which areas you found most enlightening or to what specific information disturbed you most.

Thanks much for your original post & for any follow-up you might offer.

Kindest regards,

Yan

-- Yan (no@no.no), June 12, 1999.