Somebody said in an earlier thread some weeks ago(which I am unable to find)that if the power grid goes down for 60 days,then it can't go up again.

Why is that ??

Does anybody know ?

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999

Answers

Think real hard, Chris. What do you think the state of your town would be like after a January and February with no power.

Now, how many people do you think would survive this. Now, how many power people would survive this, and how would they get to work if they did. Where will they get the energy needed to start the grid again (the oil companies need power to refine the fuels that the power company uses, whether directly or indirectly.)

The potential points of failure are millions or billions. Without power they all fail. Think, Chris, think.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), June 01, 1999.

I thinking !

Quite a few of our generating stations are coal fired & apparently have at least 3 months supply of coal on site during normal winter months.The electricity is sold to the suppliers who in turn supply to consumers. My question concerns the suppliers network going down for 60 days. I'm talking about the UK here.Maybe the 60 days doesn't apply ?

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Chris, the question you have to ask is "why would the power grid go down for 60 days?" The only people who believe this nonsense any more are the Gary North disciples and other End Of The World extremists.

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), June 01, 1999.

PS. You do make the point that the electicity generators need electricity to generate.Do they supply their own?Sorry to be a pain.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Chris,

Ask your question over at Rick Cowles site:

http://www.euy2k.com/

Or... his (TimeBomb 2000-similar) Forum...

Electric Utilities and Y2K

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and- a.tcl?topic=Electric%20Utilities%20and%20Y2K

(Or page Robert Cook)

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 01, 1999.

every civilization comes to an end.

Its natural evolution.

-- Graham hyslop (Bob@ghoward-oxley.demon.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Y2K Pro, Got it in one...just questioning.I may resemble a hedgehog(do you have those little prickly things over there)about to hibernate for the duration but it doesn't mean I'm going to bury my head in the sand.

PS.It must past my bedtime !!

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Give me a "be",someone

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Diane, Thanks for the links.I'm off & running.

Graham, If its any consolation,I think the Uk seems to be in better shape than the US.Maybe it's because we are smaller and we don't have the same Head of State.....as yet.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 01, 1999.

Chris, another take on restarting power plants is by Dick Mills at Westergaard 2000. He's pretty much middle of the road (accused by both sides of being a polly / doomer) regarding power generation and recovery.

Try http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9832.htm for one slant on this. I thought his whole series was interesting.

-- Margaret (janssm@aol.com), June 01, 1999.

Dick Mills de-bunks many myths about power

He is not even CLOSE to a "doomer" or a "polly".

He is called a Realist. Some of you could use a healthy dose of it as well.

-- No Cowles Fan (anon@ou.mous), June 01, 1999.

Chris

If memory serves correct that was in a speculative document in referance to businesses and their ability to handle certian time periods of failure. While I can't remember the document I am sure it was from a business failure view NOT from the failure of the power industry.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 01, 1999.

Y2K Pro, you're really getting boring! It is the same old crap, over and over again! Nobody clicks on your nonsense anymore! Why do you waste you time on this forum? Everybody thinks you're a joke! Try and be more original or just shut up!

-- smitty (smitty@sandiego.com), June 01, 1999.

Chris, you might also want to check and see how much coal the UK imports. Yes, I know, coals to Newcastle! British colliers load tons at the Norfolk, VA, port. Apparently, it's cheaper to get it that way than to try and extract UK coal. I don't know where else it's imported from but looks as if not to much is produced in the UK any more. (You could ask my Dad if you still have his number! He knows how many pits have closed, in the Midlands especially)

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), June 01, 1999.

Yeah, that's right.

We're going down for 60 days.

That's what I heard.

But I'm ready.

Got ammo?

-- Ready Joe (y2kjoe@mymail.com), June 01, 1999.

Isn't Dick Mills the one who believes that he can synchronize a power plant to the grid with little more than a Knife Switch and the AC volt scale on a VOM???

He's right!!!

-- K. Stevens (K Stevens@THEY_finally_GOT to Ed!.com), June 01, 1999.

Even Gary North does not actually CLAIM to believe that the power will be out for 60 days. He just says that based on the evidence there is no reason to conclude that it WON'T go down for that long, especially when you factor in all the interdependencies that power plants per se have no control over -- such as telecommunications, transportation, etc., which they depend on.

Oh, and then North says that IF the power is out for 60 days, western civilization collapses. Even a casual drive through any major city ought to convince you that he is right about that!

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), June 01, 1999.

Y2K Pro,

You know how to ask the right question. But you either don't hang around long enough for the answer or you don't understand the answer when it is handed to you. You really do seem to be confused about this stuff.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 01, 1999.

Chris, first of all, the idea that power will be out for 60 days is not realistic. If the grid did completely collapse, many utilities have the ability to "black start", that is, get generators running again without any outside source of power. Typically this is accomplished by a small diesel generator (started up just like your automobile) which is used to get a hydroelectric facility running (remember, about all you need to get a hydro unit going is water behind a dam). These systems can be restarted in a matter of hours, and should be able to restore the rest of the system within a few days. All the power companies I know have existing plans in place to accomplish this. That is why a 60 day outage is about as likely as laser beams from Mars frying the earth in January, 2000.

Diane Squire: I am deeply offended, shocked and chagrined that you referred Chris to Cowles and Cook, but not to "The Power Man". How could you do such a callous, irresponsible thing? Maybe I'll call your power company (PG&E?) and have them shut off your power! Oops, I hear someone saying "thettle down, Beavis"...oh well, never mind.

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), June 02, 1999.

Dan,

Sorry... you're just not the first person I think of in terms of "balanced power" advice.

Thanks about PG&E... but I'm anticipating that Intel, Cisco Systems, HP, etc., and all the rest at "technology ground zero" will do their level best to keep the lights on in silly valley. Their self-interest can only benefit my little corner of their shared world.

;-D

Besides, they can push harder $. Isn't capitalism a wunnerful thing?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), June 02, 1999.

Dan - I interviewed our local power rep. re: concern for impacts of blackouts on local dairies. I was surprised to learn that she was more concerned about the potential of sabbotage. Is this a universal concern among power companies? Is anything being done to heighten security? Seems they would be pretty vulnerable at power generation facilities at dams and with miles and miles of transmission lines and substations. Any comment?

Also, I have heard that some generating companies could "island" leaving "distribution only" companies without any power to distribute. Our power company is divesting itself of the distribution portion of its business in California. Deregulation has also done its part to unbundle generation from distribution. I believe New England, California and many rural areas where companies are "distribution only" could be hit for more prolonged periods than the norm by islanding. Any comment?

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 02, 1999.

(1) I doubt if you will find any authoritative source for the 60 day outage = unable to come up again. Eventually, it would come up, at least on a limited basis.

(2) 60 days without power in LA: gang control of entire areas. Regular combat. National Guard trying to retake incremential parts of the city. Neighborhoods are blackened.

(3) Re:sabotage. If a group wanted to cause maximum havoc at the rollover, they could sabotage the electric grid. They would then reinforce any problems that occurred. Since there are anti-social groups, this is a distinct possibility.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), June 02, 1999.

Its 7am in the moring here in the UK.Just switched and found all the replies.Thanks everyone.

Smitty, In my book,if anyone posts a polite reply to one on my questions,it's alright by me & that includes Y2KPro.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), June 02, 1999.

The point about electricity staying off permanently after 60 days is not a technical thing; it's a societal thing. That is, after 60 days of no power there would be such chaos that nobody would be available to work on getting the plants running again.

-- David Palm (djpalm64@yahoo.com), June 02, 1999.

Why not 50 days? or 40 days? or 70?

-- (questions@just.asking), June 02, 1999.

Could be any of those, or no days at all.

Look, we don't know. If the Grid (US) goes down for 60 days, then Gary is right, it's all over. There will be a lot of islanding going on before it gets to that point, no doubt, but you're not going to be able to restart the system in a matter of minutes or hours like Dan the clueless man thinks. Hey, something broke it if it goes down, and if it is Y2k that brings it down then some computer stuff is going to have to be fixed/replaced. Once you get it fixed then maybe a few hours later you'll have power, but you've got to have parts, replacements and equipment to fix y2k failures in generating systems and distribution systems. Unless we don't need computers to generate electricity. Or unless computers we already use in power aren't affected by y2k.

-- Jim the Window Washer (Rational@man.com), June 02, 1999.

Thanx,. Window-washin' Jim.

I have researched y2k daily for a year now, and it always amazes me how electric-power experts can claim that they can restart the entire grid with no more than a paper-clip in 2 hours. And they never address the fact that "SOMETHING" has to cause that failure in the first place. And that very "something" has got to be identified, ferreted out, and replaced or remediated before all the black-start plans and stockpiles of coal, or reserve generators can have any effect.

It's pretty obvious that I'm no electric-company insider, and I'm certainly not a rocket scientist, but good grief, folks, it doesn't take a genious to figure out that if equipment doesn't work with the grid as is, it's not gonna work with a reserve plant, either.

And, if they wait, and fix-on-failure, as it appears they must, then I hope they have the resources, talent and perserverence to find the problems and patch them in time. Because, like it or not, the world as we know it is a world of convenieces and life support systems reliant upon electricity. To do without, even for a short time would make urban life more difficult that any of us can imagine.

Sorry for the rant, but after a year, I'm realy tired of being so ignorant. About all I answer to y2k questions anymore is, "I really don't know", and that is so frustrating.

-- Lon Frank (postit@here.com), June 02, 1999.

As for gangs taking over LA -- far fewer than 60 days without water would pretty thoroughly stifle gang activity. And the water won't be running if the grid is down, 'cause the pumps run on electricity.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), June 02, 1999.

Lon,

Actually, I think you do know. And that was a very good commentary on the electric industry if the grid does go down. Just as people seem to be confused over mission critical repairs vs all systems repaired, there is confusion over electrical power "on" vs the grid "on." I can imagine a lot of power companies still producing power for their own area, but not connected to the grid. All the talk about contracts to supply the grid are based on today's world, not what will happen if a power company finds it can supply local use but not grid use.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 03, 1999.

Chris...I forgot to suggest something...since you are in the UK, you should contact your power company and ask them if they have "black start capability", and if so, when was the last time they tested it. For my curiosity, has the England entire grid ever collapsed that you know of or remember?

Hello Marsh: Yes, power companies are always wary of sabotage, simply because we have many facilities in remote areas that are vulnerable. Usually the federal laws and stiff sentences keep folks from trying to do harm to power facilities, but the possibility does exist for a "y2k" type thing. I haven't yet personally heard of any group threatening to do such a thing.

Second, this "utilities islanding" thing must be put to rest. Not a single US or Canadian utility plans to manually island in anticipation of y2k problems. Now, the last time I said this, somebody posted right after me saying they "had an understanding" that a certain power company was planning to island. This is simply not true, and anyone making such a claim should be prepared to back it up with documentation.

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), June 03, 1999.

Dan,

The best laid plans of mice and men..... It doesn't matter what the plans for staying connected to the grid are, if the grid threatens to pull down any single generating unit it will trip off and stay off the grid until it's safe to go back on. Count on it. Common sense. How long will it stay off the grid? Who knows? Hours, days, weeks, months. Betting on a company staying on a grid that threatens it's very existence is foolish. Of course it isn't planned. Of course it will turn out that way if it's the only way to survive a sick grid.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), June 03, 1999.

Dan --

Could you comment on the article on the front page of the Oregonian yesteday. It referred to a potential threat from the solar flare peak due to hit in the first months of 2000 starting in January. The story made reference to the fires that destroyed equipment and a grid failure in Canada. The title of the article mentioned that the solar flares would add to Y2K woes.

Please comment on this possibility.

Thanks in advance

-- unspun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), June 03, 1999.

Mr. Dan the powerman...I noticed your first response to Chris was back-up deisel generators for hydro-electric power plants. That would be easy since hydroelectric is a renewable resource. I must admit that I wish all power plants were hydro-electric. There are 3-4 macro- grids. West U.S., Texas, and East U.S. From what information I have gathered, there is a 20% surplus of electricity.

Now, there are a few Hydroelectric ones, far out numbered by coal operated, Oil and gas operated and Nuke operated. From what I recall, 90+ % of energy requirements for the Texas (encompasses most of Texas in-and-of-itself) Grid is Natural gas and Petroleum. There has been indications that we will get very little oil imports (venesuela and saudi arabia wayyyy behind by 12-18 months ) and we will have to depend on our own oil supply for the interim. Our refineries have many embedded systems running them with clocks and are they all compliant? Natural gas pipelines may be in question with embedded systems that distribute proper flow. If anyone else has certain info on natural gas flows and embedded systems, jump in and enlighten us.

Now for the coal operated electric plants, are the trains going to do their job getting material in a timely manner to their destinations with the Computers controlling switches. They also know where trains are thousands of miles away from main control points, however, when computers roll over, will they know where the train cars really are and how to get them to their destination in a timely manner. I heard trains were an issue, correct me if I'm wrong like the gas pipeline thing.

40% of all electricity east of the Mississippi is created by nuclear power plants. Have the Nukes really got their act together by years end or will they be another contributing factor or lack thereof.

Then there is the 22 year sun spot/solar flair cycle that screws up transmission of electricity. They say that will be the excuse to cover up Y2k remediation questions.

Of course, the retribution from clintons ground war in Kosovo and EMT missles that knock out electricity as we have proved ours have woked in ruining infrastructure in Yugoslavia. Excuse the negativity. Only trying to be realistic.

It seems there are so many variables and so few answers regarding the totality of this matter. Jump in if You have any real answers.

Sincerly, Feller.

-- Feller (feller@wanna.help), June 03, 1999.

Dan - what about this article? http://www.seattletimes.com/news/technology/html98/powr_19990531.html

"Comish noted that it's important to remember that every system in the universe has its limits. "Because a large, interconnected power system is much stronger than a small, isolated system, we try to remain interconnected for as long as possible," he said. "However, when we reach a point where all we accomplish by remaining interconnected is to drag everyone down, we `island' " - meaning separate from the grid.

"Islanding prevents the further spread of the disturbance. In islands that contain a balance of customer demand and generation, the disturbance is quickly arrested and customers will probably see no more than a few flickers of the lights.

"In islands where this balance is not achieved, something has to give. "Sometimes customers have to be interrupted to allow the generation in the island to balance with the remaining customer demand," Comish said, noting that in 1996, the system interrupted service for a couple of million customers to spare the entire Western region from blacking out.

"When the system is heavily loaded - as it was twice in the summer of '96 - and it experiences multiple contingencies, the results can be harrowing.

"This is why," said Comish, "we intend to operate the system in a very lightly loaded condition on New Year's Eve. It will take a lot of contingencies to lead to a major problem."

"City Light's Zarker doesn't expect to use it, but notes that Seattle has an ace up its sleeve. About a third of the utility's power is drawn from its facilities on the Skagit River. In the event the utility were forced to separate from the grid, Zarker says, the Skagit could probably carry Seattle."

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), June 03, 1999.

Marsh

Close to the homestead. BC hydro only ships 7 % of power to the states, at an awareness meeting with them the topic came up. Bonniville is pretty much up eh? So I here.

BC hydro is water driven (duh) and they were early and just finished up in May. (I hope) That alone makes me wonder about the System.

Expecting light during y2k and prepared if there is none.

Brian

-- Brian (imager@home.com), June 03, 1999.

Unspun: I don't have any expertise on solar flares. About all I know is that they disturb the earth's magnetic field in such a way as to cause some electric power disturbances, particularly in Canada, and are dependent on a 10 to 20 year cycle.

Feller: I can't add much to your comments. I do think we will have more than 20% surplus available, more like greater than 50% because the load is so light that time of year nation-wide. Regarding the nukes, I think we will all know very soon (in a month or so) about whether the NRC will allow them to run or not.

Hello again Marsh. Perhaps I misunderstood your original question. Yes, if the grid begins to collapse catastrophically, then islanding can begin to occur. This would only happen if many, many units trip off-line, which by all indications so far won't happen. But no one is deliberately going to island in anticipation of problems. Am I making the difference clear?

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), June 03, 1999.