The results of the April NERC survey are posted at april1999.xls

The overall average percent complete is now 82%.

Continuing an analysis I was doing on c.s.y2k, counts within percentiles: (hope the formatting works)

Percent January February March April ------- ------- -------- ----- ----- 90-100% 25 (11%) 35 (15%) 53 (23%) 79 (34%) 80-90% 20 (9%) 32 (14%) 56 (24%) 71 (30%) 70-80% 25 (11%) 36 (15%) 53 (23%) 36 (15%) 60-70% 31 (13%) 35 (15%) 22 (09%) 19 (08%) 50-60% 28 (12%) 18 (8%) 15 (06%) 11 (05%) 40-50% 37 (16%) 31 (13%) 13 (06%) 9 (04%) 30-40% 15 (6%) 17 (7%) 9 (04%) 3 (01%) 20-30% 22 (9%) 13 (6%) 10 (04%) 4 (02%) 10-20% 10 (4%) 12 (5%) 3 (01%) 1 (0.4%) 00-10% 22 (9%) 6 (3%) 1 (0.4%) 2 (01%) ------- --------- --------- --------- ----------- 235 235 235 235

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 24, 1999

Answers

OK, another try:

Percent January February March April
------- ------- -------- ----- -----
90-100% 25 (11%) 35 (15%) 53 (23%) 79 (34%)
80-90% 20 (9%) 32 (14%) 56 (24%) 71 (30%)
70-80% 25 (11%) 36 (15%) 53 (23%) 36 (15%)
60-70% 31 (13%) 35 (15%) 22 (09%) 19 (08%)
50-60% 28 (12%) 18 (8%) 15 (06%) 11 (05%)
40-50% 37 (16%) 31 (13%) 13 (06%) 9 (04%)
30-40% 15 (6%) 17 (7%) 9 (04%) 3 (01%)
20-30% 22 (9%) 13 (6%) 10 (04%) 4 (02%)
10-20% 10 (4%) 12 (5%) 3 (01%) 1 (0.4%)
00-10% 22 (9%) 6 (3%) 1 (0.4%) 2 (01%)
------- --------- --------- --------- -----------
235 235 235 235


-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 24, 1999.

Sorry, one more try:

Percentile	January	February	March	April
90-100%	25 (11%)	35 (15%)	53 (23%)	79 (34%)
80-90%	20 (09%)	32 (14%)	56 (24%)	71 (30%)
70-80%	25 (11%)	36 (15%)	53 (23%)	36 (15%)
60-70%	31 (13%)	35 (15%)	22 (09%)	19 (08%)
50-60%	28 (12%)	18 (08%)	15 (06%)	11 (05%)
40-50%	37 (16%)	31 (13%)	13 (06%)	9 (04%)
30-40%	15 (06%)	17 (07%)	9 (04%)	3 (01%)
20-30%	22 (09%)	13 (06%)	10 (04%)	4 (02%)
10-20%	10 (04%)	12 (05%)	3 (01%)	1 (.4%)
0-10%	22 (09%)	6 (03%)	1 (.4%)	2 (01%)
Counts	235	235	235	235

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 24, 1999.

Looks like they are making progress? How come we haven't heard from dan the power man recently?

-- Johnny (jljtm@bellsouth.com), May 24, 1999.

I thought there were 3000.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), May 24, 1999.

Hello Johnny. I have been in lurk mode lately simply because there is not much to talk about. Most of the power companies are finishing up our remediation and contingency plans, so there will be a flurry of discussion come July, when most declare that they are finished. When I think something significant comes up, or needs clarification, I'll be happy to discuss it. There is an item regarding the upcoming September drill, and there are a few items happening; you'll hear from me in the next few weeks. See you around.

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), May 25, 1999.

Hi Dan,

The above chart says to me that quite a few companies are still below the 75% average. I'm not all that comfortable with this, at this late date. We heard a while back that FPL was at 95% but they started in 1995. Any comments? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 25, 1999.

Hello again, Sysman. I'm not too concerned about these percentages just yet...the May numbers will come out next week, and perhaps that is a good time to discuss this again. Remember, June 30 is the deadline; I suggest we wait and see what utilities report then. At that time if a bunch of utilities are less than 90%, or report a whole bunch of mission-critical exceptions, then there is a real concern. I hate to keep putting folks off, but there is no other alternative right now.

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), May 26, 1999.

Dan,

Thanks. I am trying to hold my breath on this one.

While you're here this evening, what can you tell us about coal plants? We had a report last week of a plant stocking 6-9 months of coal. Gary North says a large plant burns 3 one mile long trains of coal per day? Is this true? How much coal does an "average" plant burn per day? I'm trying to figure out how big the possible thousands of car loads of coal would be, and where the plant would keep it... <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), May 26, 1999.

gee whiz. I wonder why most of the regulars have no comment on this? At least sysman, a known pessimist has commented. WHERE ARE ALL THE LOUDMOUTHS WHO CONSTANTLY BAIT THE POLLYANNAS? Don't you feel the need to "spin" this report and tell everyone how it is all lies?

-- IRONy MAN (marvel@comic.books), May 26, 1999.

Dan or Hoff, I'm sure this has been explained often in the past, but I'm not clear on it. Do these figures tell us how much of the work has been done or, instead, how many mission critical systems are in good shape?

To clarify my question, the comparison with the car with a single flat. Once half the work has been done to fix the flat, is the car at 50% or 87.5%? Any info. or references appreciated.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

puddinhead~

nice use of Lord's BS analogy

-- ;asdglkjhw (kjnsader@lkjasdvpi.uaerv), May 26, 1999.

And there is the matter of that pesky 'exceptions' list.

FPL has a scheduled outage in Sept? for the Port St Lucie plant. This is nuclear, for those who don't know.

Turkey Point, also nuclear, just went through its scheduled outage. I believe it was in March?

This from a friend whose husband works there. Not detailed info, sorry, but the best I can do.

-- J (jart5@bellsouth.net), May 26, 1999.

Puddintame, here is NERC's instructions on filling the spreadsheet:

http://www.nerc.com/~y 2k/assessment.html

7.A standard method for determining per cent complete follows. It is preferred that your responses be geared to % work done compared to total amount of work to be done. This would account for various activities having different amounts of effort. For example: if your inventory shows 100 devices with possible Y2K problems, and your assessment shows that only 2 have Y2K problems and one device has been replaced with a Y2K ready device and the other still needs remediation, the per cent complete to report would be Inventory 100%, Assessment 100%, Remediation and Testing 50%.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 26, 1999.

Off

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-dejanews.com), May 26, 1999.

Noted. Thanks for digging that up.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), May 26, 1999.

"Thanks for digging that up"

like it was so buried. right on the nerc website. does anyone else get the feeling that the "gi" gets their info only from here or north? that they sort of "feed" off each others opinions?

-- ignore me (im just @ .troll), May 26, 1999.

ignore:

That same paragraph has been posted to this form several times previously as well. But when it isn't what people want to hear, it takes a *lot* of repetition for it to be remembered.

-- Flint (flintc @mindspring.com), May 26, 1999.

Get a load of Mr. Research.

-- Wiseguy (got@it.gov), May 26, 1999.