FYI, I just saw this pop up on NERC's web site: The latest NERC report (I think with data through the first quarter of 1999) will be available this Friday, April 30. There is also going to be a press conference in DC. Go to NERC's y2k web site for the news (it's in Acrobat format).

Dan the power man.

-- Dan (dgman19938@aol.com), April 24, 1999

Answers

Thanks Dan. I just added this thread to my favs to remind me. Have you had a chance yet to read Rick Cowles analysis of the GAO report that I mentioned in your other thread? <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), April 25, 1999.

it's macabre how we follow the industry deadlines and reports,failure,after failure.It must be difficult for mister yourdon to remain middle-of-the-road and not wander toward the doom camp....

-- zoobie (zoob@aol.com), April 25, 1999.

Hey Zoob, does a forecast of a 10-year depression sound middle-of-the- road to you? Where ya been?

-- --- (yougotta@be.kidding), April 25, 1999.

Yo Sysman. I don't have any strong impressions either way about the GAO report or with Mr. Cowles analysis. It all depends on how you look at things. For example, Rick mentions Independent Power Producers (IPP's) as needing to report their y2k readiness. I agree. However, in my company's entire service territory, we have ZERO IPP's, so it isn't even an issue for us. In other locations that do have IPP's, they won't be connected to the grid at that time. The GAO report mentions how all kinds of control and protective equipment are scattered throughout the power system, and that should that equipment fail, outages could occur. I agree. But that leaves out half of the equation.

Allow me to elaborate. Take a commonly used set of products from Beckwith Electric. Go to their web site at www.beckwithelectric.com and look at their list of products. They sell transformer and generator protective relays, capacitor controllers, transformer tap changers, and numerous other devices used by hundreds of utilities across the United States. Now, here's how someone might state the issue: "Beckwith products control numerous key power facilities across North America, and should these devices fail due to Y2K problems, there would be outage problems everywhere." I agree with that statement.

Now go back to Beckwith's main page and click on the Y2K button. You'll see some general information about how to contact them should you have a Y2K question. On that page is the following statement:

"It should be noted that the use and reporting of time and date data is for information purposes only. Time and date HAS NO EFFECT ON THE SAFE AND RELIABLE OPERATION OF THE PRODUCTS, COMMUNICATIONS SOFTWARE AND ANALYSIS SOFTWARE PROGRAMS." [emphasis mine]

So, the second have of the equation is this: "Sure, if Beckwith products failed there could be outages, but they don't even use the date for any critical functions. In addition, y2k tests on all of their date-aware products have found ZERO devices that fail their basic functionality."

Do you see the big difference? Two true statements that tend to draw you to the opposite conclusion. And to those who think I make unsubstantiated claims, don't take my word for it...go to Beckwith's web site and see for yourself. Or go to another commonly used manufacturer's site, Schweitzer Engineering Labs at www.selinc.com. Schweitzer relays are also used all over North America. They even post their test procedure and test results there, for each product family.

I hope this addresses your question, Sysman.

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), April 25, 1999.

Dan, I'm not sure where you're getting your information about IPP's "disconnecting from the grid". If U.S. Generating Company disconnects all it's New England assets, New England is in the dark. U.S. Gen purchased all of the NEES generating assets last year.

Your response speaks to exactly what I've been saying, that impacts from a public infrastructure standpoint are going to be very regional in nature. Your area is not dependent on IPP's. Mine is. A lot of the power in the system that I'm connected to, Conectiv, comes from IPP's. U.S. Gen and Stithe Energy (both IPP's) make up the lion's share of non-nuclear power production capabilities in New England. U.S. Gen and Stithe are beholden to no one except their shareholders.

-- Rick Cowles (rcowles@waterw.com), April 25, 1999.

Hello Rick. What I meant about the IPP's was that you justifiably are concerned about their y2k readiness, but that this is not a universal concern nation-wide. Regarding them not being connected, I'm saying that during the rollover to 2000 that load is very light, and there will be less generation connected. I believe you live in New Jersey or thereabouts, right? This lower load scenario might not apply to the Northeast, particularly if the weather is very cold. But in the southern half of the US, load is relatively light.

Again, I agree with you that IPP's are a concern. Have you mentioned this to NERC or the DOE, to see if they are willing to address it? Since US Gen is a subsidiary of PG&E, isn't PG&E going to make sure their equipment is Y2K ready?

I merely chose that as an example of how a person can become worried depending on how the information is presented. It is clear to me that you have a much more pessimistic view about the readiness of power companies to Y2k than I do. My optimism is based on my experiences y2k testing hundreds of devices used in T&D. Because we have not found a single T&D device to lose its basic functionality that would result in interruption of power delivery, I am confident that even those smaller co-ops that might be behind us larger companies will be fine come Y2K, because they use the same device types that we do.

By the way, I've noticed that you usually provide a brief analysis on this forum of the NERC and GAO reports as they come out. Perhaps we could debate the latest NERC report when it comes out later this week, on a thread in this forum? Not as an argumentative type thing, but as a utility guy and a y2k gadfly (I've heard someone refer to you as that) discussing it?

-- Dan the Power Man (dgman19938@aol.com), April 25, 1999.

Thanks Dan. Your information is very helpful. I do hope that Rick takes you up on your offer, and I hope that Robert Cook also gets involved (not that I want them to gang up on you!). I think it would be a very interesting and educational thread. <:)=

PS - Have you done anything with Drew or Ed yet? It sure would help your credibility here.

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), April 26, 1999.

It will indeed be very interesting to see if Cowles accepts the challenge. :)

-- Stephen M. Poole, CET (smpoole7@bellsouth.net), April 26, 1999.