Some notes from last evenings "Y2K & Electrical Utilities Forum" in Quincy, MA sponsored by Eastern Nazarene College and Boston Universitys Center for Millennial Studies. The proceedings were videotaped (available for purchase from 617-745-3715). Id highly recommend obtaining a copy.

Panelists: Rick Cowles, Dick Mills, Steve Bray (Power Plus, Los Angeles), Jim Sinclair (ISO New England), Jim Martin (Seabrook - nuclear engineer), and Phil Prugnarola (Seabrook - Y2K coordinator). Moderator: Ned Vankevich (E. Naz. Coll., and author of soon-to-be-released "Y2K Made Simple - A Natural Health Resource Guide"). Closing remarks by Richard Landis of CMS. Lou Marcoccio of the GartnerGroup was scheduled but did not attend. JIM SINCLAIR: The ISO operates the grid (generation and transmission) for New England; the local utilities are responsible for the distribution components. There are 330 generators in the New England Control Area, not all of which run at once. New England has a diversity of generators (fuel types), which increases flexibility. 30% of the power is nuclear. One of the reasons ISO is not so worried about Y2K is that the grid is a real-time product, not date-stamped. 3 New England states [not specified] have hired independent contractors [may include Cowles for New Hampshire] to look at the utilities.

The contingency plan for NECA includes operating in a precautionary mode including lowering transfers between Control Areas. [I recall that NERCs contingency plan calls for lowering transfers in order to avoid cascading problems associated with common mode failures. I dont know, given the current status of the assessment and testing, whether common mode failures are still considered a major problem.] More plants will be available at rollover, in standby mode, to increase operating flexibility in case plants start tripping off-line. The load will be at 50% of a typical winter day. The biggest worry is a loss or unequalization of load if, for instance, too many major commercial and industrial facilities elect to close down over the rollover. Typically there is a 30-60 day fuel reserve, but that has been increased to 90-120 days (in general?). Does not anticipate spikes or rolling brownouts. Expect Millstone II (nuke) to be available this summer.

JIM MARTIN: Seabrook provides enough energy for 1,000,000 homes. It is a "base-loaded" plant, operating 24 hours a day in between refuelings (18 months). The plant is run by operators, not computers; computers serve only to provide information to the operators. The annual drills assume that computers are not available. Embedded chips simply provide increased efficiencies of operation. There is a 3 second automatic shutoff if there is a loss in load demand. Seabrook has two 6 MW diesel generators, each with enough fuel for 30 days (so ok for 2 months), to supply on-site electricity if external power fails. The industry deadline is 6/30.

PHIL PRUGNAROLA: No Y2K problems were identified that could impact safety systems. 404 items needed remediation or testing. Of the 10 systems left, 8 are waiting for implementation and final testing (in May), and 2 systems are being retired. Expect to be ready by NRCs 7/1 deadline, and perhaps to be the first nuke plant Y2K ready. A number of utilities have already rolled the date forward and have been able to continue to operate.

STEVE BRAY: Thousands of generators are being purchased for Y2K. Bray is concerned about safety issues (lethal backfeeds) if the generators are not installed properly. Seemed to be saying that it is too late to put in an order for a generator, that the just-in-time manufacturers are maxd out. Utilities should pay more attention to the generator issue, especially home use. Bray feels it is significant that the industry experts "are all [personally] prepared". Described Y2K as a "timequake".

DICK MILLS: [Comments were consistent with past Westergaard articles.] No reason not to believe that the utility industry will deviate from the norm of 15% residual bugs (missed or introduced) after remediation. It is not prudent to assume the electrical supply will not be threatened in January. Everyone is supposed to have a contingency plan, unless you are the customer, in which case you are being alarmist. Does not expect blackouts for more than 72 hours. Damaging brownouts are the least of his worries. However, other problems could develop, such as fuel supply, transportation, imported oil, maritime, spare parts, customer bills not paid, etc. So shortages should be planned for. If a shortage greatly inflates the price, he expects the power brokers to absorb the cost instead of passing something outrageous on to the homeowner, but this has bankrupted power brokers in the past. Public should do what is reasonable and prudent to prep for blackouts and shortages. Dont ask the utility whether they will be Y2K ready - asked instead what the utility recommends the public should do to prepare. Mills is stocking up lots of food for his family for September as a hedge against serious public reaction when the Y2K disaster movies come out.

RICK COWLES: Introduced by the moderator as the "industry gadfly"! Very easy to paint a rosy picture in any industry. This is the first time that every aspect of the industry will be affected.

Identified several risks - to be spread over the next 6 to 12 months in New England. *Much of the generation system has been deregulated. Most power companies have been selling off their generator units, and the new owners are answerable only to their Boards of Directors on Y2K issues - there has been little outside analysis. *The interconnectedness is also a weakness, since problems can cascade to other areas. *Inability to do end-to-end testing. Danger of overconfidence. Nowhere close to being licked yet. Both electric and gas have come much far in the last 2 years than Cowles thought possible - now it is just a race to the finish line.

Cowles is working on the status of all the public utilities in New Hampshire [except water?]. Water is more of a concern because it is so decentralized. If not regulated by the Public Utility Commission, it is hard to get a handle on it.

RICHARD LANDIS: Supply problems are a major issue. What are communities doing? Martial law is more likely if there is no community planning. Y2K affects the social structure instead of buildings. We will be more resilient if discussions are in the open.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), April 22, 1999

Answers

Great report, Brooks, thanx!

It's time for the pollys to drop off the map, not on the question of, "will power stay up everywhere?", which is boring and unanswerable, but on question of preparations.

The so-called doomer preparations (the actual word is "prudent") with respect to energy largely consist of generators (milage varies and they're not for everyone, obviously), non-electric sources (oil lamps et al), renewables (solar if one can afford it and wants it anyway) and the like. Most are planning for just the scenarios described above: some blackouts, intermittent but possibly continuing shortages of weird kinds.

Here is what we have done and I want to know whether there is anyone who frequents this board who questions its reasonableness (obviously, not everyone can afford this, that's an entirely separate question):

... propane refrigerator, stove and hot water heater

... oil lamps (Aladdin and Petromax) and enough oil/kero for a year (the latter a couple hundred bucks).

... solar battery charger for laptops and separate charger for normal batteries (plus batteries, natch)

... battery-driven shortwave

... wood stove (ours heats the entire house, but anything helps)

... we have gravity-fed spring; otherwise think hand pump

Turns out my business is now buying me a 8KW diesel genset and whole house surge protection (thanks, Robert Cook), but we can live without that entirely.

Again, milage varies. I'm not asking whether a "bet" that someone won't need this will win. Of COURSE it might. I'm challenging people to quarrel with the reasonableness of this. Let's throw in, if you must, that I have five kids and live in a Northern snow-belt area that is highly rural and could be isolated for periods of time.

Dan the power man, well, what? Mills has it just so: smart industry people are preparing, but when customers do it, it's alarmist. Can't we finally agree on this forum to get over that nonsense?

As for my continuing fury that I need to make these preparations as a husband and father and spend money I would rather spend elsewhere, we'll save that .....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 22, 1999.

Oops, a correction. Notes on Dick Mills should read: "No reason to believe that the utility industry will deviate from the norm..."

BigDog - If my stove, frig and water heater were not practically brand new, and if there was more than just me and the kitties (no chilled food for them - they expect it freshly opened!), and if I had GI'd months sooner than I did, I would be positively salivating over your propane appliances. With your large household, especially the children, I think they make a great deal of sense, Y2K or not!

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), April 22, 1999.

Brooks -- Well, mileage does vary. If I were single or the kids were grown, our preparation cycle might well have been different. Personally, I'd be glad to live in a small yurt on the back of our farm. I am grateful to North, Yourdon and Hamasaki that they raised the alarm early enough and consistently enough for me to hear it above the noise and get going ......

This said, I wasn't meaning to play a game of, "look at our cool preps." My point (Brooks, I know you understood, just reiterating) is that these aren't some sort of paranoid, weird "doom" preparations but appropriate prudence. Indeed, they WERE prophetic (purchased last year) in the face of all the nonsense that the utilities would have it totally solved, or else why did you just give this report from an April 21, 1999 meeting. Not 1997, 1999. That is what is infuriating about the polly spin on prepping ......

AS IF I want to spend a penny on this stuff. What a sad joke.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 22, 1999.

BigDog - What you already know is that it takes a long while to do the level of preps that you have done, and it also requires leadtime to research and mull over the options to arrive at an appropriate balance. I never considered propane appliances, because I didn't find out about them in time. (I'm also somewhat allergic to the idea that the fuel has to be intentionally delivered since I'm a procrastinator at heart - one of the reasons I switched from oil heat to natural gas years ago.)

I always enjoy reading postings from folks like you who are taking responsibility for your family. I see nothing remotely inappropriate about your preps. They are well balanced. They are also, in part, a reflection of your getting a jump on what you are doing - Preps will be so much simpler for those who don't panic until next fall because there will be so few options left.

On a side note, I believe you inherited Clemens? Please don't send him back to Boston when the veneer wears off, we've had it with his vetching. On the other hand, he is a true BigDog fan. He raises huskies, and made the news a few years ago having been bitten by a stray dog he was trying to help out on a road trip, so he has a soft spot where it counts.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), April 22, 1999.

Actually, Brooks, I'm a METS fan ('course, that might be worse. Does the name "Bill Buckner" mean anything to you)? Sorry ....

But then I'm also a Rangers fan, so it all evens out.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 22, 1999.

Hello Brooks and Big Dog: I'm not sure I understand your question directed at me Big Dog...You want me to stop the nonsense of calling people who prepare alarmists? Or is it you think it is futile to argue about whether power will be available?

I avoid using tags or names to describe folks, regardless of their position on Y2k issues. And I won't comment on your preparedness because I have no expertise on the subject. Certainly there are others who do. I would never tell you or anyone else how to prepare, because I think it is none of my business. But that's not to say that this is not a topic that should be discussed. My discussions center on the issue of power companies' readiness for Y2k, from the perspective of someone who has been working on Y2k for a power company (yes, I'm working with Drew Parkhill to verify this, so just be patient). So the issue for me is whether power will be available, and if so, how much, not on how to prepare in case it isn't available. It's hard to assess the meeting without having been at the meeting, so again I don't have much of a comment.

-- Dan the power man (dgman19938@aol.com), April 22, 1999.

Brooks - My wife and I travelled up to Boston last night (from RI) to the conference (you may have seen us, my wife was the one in the back in the wheelchair, I was beside her). Joyce and I both found the conference to be more of the feel-good kind than an informative one.

It may just have been us and our (newly aquired) distrust of utility-types but we were both left with a feeling of emptiness (exclusive of what Rick & Dick had to say of course!). Both ISO & the boys from Seabrook seemed to have an attitude of righteousness (sp?) about them and that whatever they said, was gospel or close to it. Maybe that was just our take on it though.

Something I found particularly interesting was the fact that when the Seabrook "crew" mentioned the NRC, it was only in the context of what the NRC found RIGHT about the plant. I didn't hear them utter one syllable about the problems discovered during their audit. Just that type of "spin" infuriates me. Why not be totally open and honest and let the chips fall where they may, it was a Y2K conference for God's sake!

Another interesting point was when it came to the Q&A portion. I was in the back and made sure I got one of their 3x5 question cards ASAP (before they announced it, with good reason). I wrote out two somewhat harmless (in my opinion at least) questions and waited to see if they would address them. My question card, being the first turned in, was on the top of the stack. I watched the narrator read it, look up into the audience, then shuffle it to the bottom and ask the next one instead. My first one was : " Why is the NERC allowing certain non-complient utilities to report themselves as 'complient' under their exceptions rule? Don't the DOE & the public at large, deserve the 'unfettered' truth about their complience"? I guess it was too much for them to handle or something. That is the exact reason though that I no longer trust them. They want to "interpret" things for us, as if we are three year olds and can't handle the truth, be it good OR bad.

BigDog - love your preps my man! You are so right about not wanting to do this. My wife and I are both totally disabled and have absolutely no spare money to throw away. Yet, we feel strongly enough about what might be coming,that money that was budgeted for other things has been waylaid for modest Y2K preps. It's not a question of using Discretionary funds, there aren't any, it's a matter of robbing Peter to pay Paul. We have had to use an AWFUL lot of sheer ingenuity and creativity but we are getting the job done. Here's a quick example.

With my wife's MS, she absolutely cannot tolerate coldness, I HAD to have a way of insuring continuous electric and heating. We ended up building our own power generation system for the house (tested and working) by literally building our own generator from scavenged parts (large engine, I rebuilt). We were able to coerce a number of friendly golf course maintenance supervisors to "donate" their used (but still very much, full functioning) deep cycle, golf cart batteries. They normally "throw" them away by giving them to their supplier to dispose of each year. Because they can't afford to have one possibly give out on a customer in the middle of a game, they take no chances and just replace them all. We have taken eighteen of them and have them connected in the basement (in a positive ventilated battery housing of course), to a Trace Inverter that we were able to get at cost from a friend in the solar industry. On the batteries alone, we can run almost the whole house for five days (in eight hour intervals) before we achieve a 40% depletement of the batteries, at which time, we crank up the generator (I have to admit, it isn't pretty looking) and recharge in about 6-8 hours.

We solved the water problem (no well or spring, unfortunately) by again scavenging a number of 55 gallon drums from a local soda bottler. They use them for their syrup so the drums are food grade, they just have to be steam washed and rinsed (car wash) and sanitized before use. I was able to hook them (twenty) together in series with piping, an old water pressure tank from a contractor friend, and a small, inexpensive ($36) pressure pump. We connected to our main line with gate valves and backflow preventers (checkvalves too) so that I, if needed, can isolate our water system and run strictly on our own. I realize it all sounds overboard but we really didn't have the resources to go mainstream (I truly wish we did).

To anyone wondering why we might have gone to such extremes, the answer is simple. I am a FATHER. Those words are almost religious to me and spur me on to greater heights. I will not let my family suffer! If everything just blows over, well, I've had some really good lessons in self-reliance and wouldn't change a thing. In my heart I know my family can count on me when the chips are down.

Sorry to run on so much, I tend to get that way sometimes.

To Rick Cowles - It was great to finally meet and talk to you in person. You mentioned your height at the conference as being of short in stature. Rick, whatever you lack in physical stature, you truly make up for in integrity and courage. Keep up the good work.

Jeff

-- Jeff Sullivan (cats7@prodigy.net), April 22, 1999.

Jeff -- great post. I really admire your spirit and guts on this. BTW, as I've commented occasionally, I'm not really a big dog myself (5' 5"). My sons consider my handle some sort of Freudian compensation ....

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), April 22, 1999.

Simply summed:

Supply problems are a major issue. What are communities doing? Martial law is more likely if there is no community planning. Y2K affects the social structure instead of buildings. We will be more resilient if discussions are in the open.

middleground@critt.com), April 22, 1999.