I don't think this has been posted before (a search engine would help) but I'm most interested in the "power mavens" interpretation of the following. Because of my own computer problems, I may have lost this utility's September 1998 10-q filing, which predicted the possibility of "disruptions and power outages." Could so much have been accomplished in such a short period of time? (FYI: I'm posting this, because I'm still debating about whether to buy a generator. I'm interested in your comments on that as well. Also--if you feel the need to flame me about posting this--please do so gently. Thanks!)

10-q February from DTE (Detroit Edison)

YEAR 2000

The Company and Detroit Edison have been involved in an enterprise-wide program to address Year 2000 issues. A program office was established in mid-1997 to implement a rigorous plan to address the impact of Year 2000 on hardware and software systems, embedded systems (which include microprocessors used in the production and control of electric power), and critical service providers. The emphasis has been on mission critical systems that support core business activities or processes. Core business activities/processes include safety, environmental and regulatory compliance, product production and delivery,revenue collection, employee and supplier payment and financial asset management.

The plan for addressing Year 2000 is divided into several phases including raising general awareness of Year 2000 throughout the Company and Detroit Edison; maintaining an inventory of systems and devices; performing an assessment of inventoried systems and devices; performing compliance testing of suspect systems and devices; remediation of non-compliant systems and devices through replacement, repair, retirement, or identifying an acceptable work around; testing and remediation of systems and devices in an integrated environment and preparing business continuity plans.

Inventory, assessment and compliance testing phases have been completed for known systems and devices. The remediation phase is approximately 80% complete and is expected to be fully complete by August 1999 for mission critical assets and supporting assets. Integration planning, including the mapping of critical business processes, is near completion for Detroit Edison. Integration testing and remediation is expected to be complete by October 1999.

To support the program phases, the program office has been working with major utility industry associations and organizations, customers and vendors to gather and share information on Year 2000 issues. The program office has contacted vendors critical to Company operations to determine their progress on Year 2000.

To further assist in identifying potential problems, tests of generating facilities have been conducted by advancing control systems dates to the Year 2000. Results of these tests have shown that the generating facilities operated successfully in this induced "millennium mode." Exercises were conducted on December 31, 1998 and January 1, 1999 to assess the ability to reach employees and the regional security centers of the East Central Area Reliability Group through various communication channels. The exercised communication channels operated properly. The business continuity program will provide opportunities to conduct similar exercises on other systems in advance of the Year 2000. Similar analysis has not been completed for other affiliates.

In the event that an unknown Year 2000 condition adversely affects service to customers or an internal business process, contingency and business continuity plans and procedures are being developed to provide rapid restoration to normal conditions.

The Company and Detroit Edison have always maintained a comprehensive operational emergency response plan. The business continuity function of the Year 2000 program will supplement the existing emergency plan to include Year 2000 specific events. A Year 2000 emergency response office will be fully operational by November 1999 to manage and coordinate operations, including mobilization of all employees as necessary, during the transition to the new millennium.

The Company and Detroit Edison believe that with all Year 2000 modifications, business continuity and emergency management plans in place, the Year 2000 will not have a material effect on their financial position, liquidity and results of operations. Despite all efforts, there can be no assurances that Year 2000 issues can be totally eliminated. Results of modifications and testing done during the fourth quarter of 1998 have demonstrated that Detroit Edison should be able to maintain normal operating conditions into the Year 2000, although there may be isolated electric service interruptions. Detroit Edison's internal business systems may be affected by a Year 2000 related failure that could temporarily interrupt the ability to communicate with customers, collect revenue, or complete cash transactions. In addition, no assurances can be given that the systems of vendors, interconnected utilities and customers will not result in Year 2000 problems.

The Company estimates that Year 2000 costs will approximate $80 million with $39 million expended between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 1998. Operating cash flow is expected to be sufficient to pay Year 2000 modification costs with no material impact on operating results or cash flows.

-- VLS (inbusiness@theoffice.net), March 13, 1999

Answers

VLS,

So your saying this is Detroit Edisons, latest filing, and thier Spetember 1998 filing was much more dire? And you want to know if so much has been accomplished in so short a time?

Well what Its hard to say for sure without seeing the old one but I will say this. Once Inventory and Test planss have beens completed. The task of testing and remdiation can go very quickly, if the company and staff are committed to the idea. 6 months isnt that short of a time. Remeber theres not just one person per company doing this but many departments working in parrallel.

On the flip side of this , If there spet filing stated theyre inventory was some percentage complete and planning hadnt yet begun, This new filing is somewhat doubtful.

The overall tone of this companies statement is good, as to whether or not to buy a generator. Theres certainly no harm in it, if you can afford it and store it comfortably. Even better if you might have uses for it in the future besides a Y2k failure. If its a financial burden to you, a storage nightmare and has no practical use in the future, well then , Id go back and try to get the old Q-10 filing, make some phone calls to the utility, find someone who works for them and get a real good idea of what the potential problems are before moving forward.

my two cents,

nyc

-- nyc (nycnyc@hotmail.com), March 13, 1999.

Both. This is basically boilerplate lawyer-induced narcosis. They're working on it, they'll probably be ready unless they aren't. If they've run into any serious problems, they're not about to tell anyone about them. If they have problems at rollover due to external causes, it's not their fault. If rollover problems are due to internal problems, it's not their fault either because they've made a good-faith effort.

Their target dates seem a bit late. If these have slipped since their last report, that's a warning sign. If they slip again next report, it's a Bad Thing. And you'll need to compare the reports, since nowhere will they explicitly admit slipping deadlines.

All in all, normal obfuscation.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), March 13, 1999.

Thanks for the input. Seems like I need to do some homework. As I recall, the last 10Q had specific time tables for percentages of work completed. In the meantime, if anybody (with more experience than I at comparing these things) has that last 10Q (it's under DTE) I sure wouldn't mind hearing your opinion. Thanks again.

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), March 13, 1999.

VLS: This statement by Detroit Edison can best be judged as "about average" for utlities. I read nothing disturbing in it. The difference between the September, 1998 10Q and this statement can be most likely be attributed to the results of testing that occurred in December, 1998 and January, 1999. The "great unknown" of embedded systems problems in generation was looming last year before more data was available. Utilities are still in the process of checking their energy management systems and other monitoring and maintenance systems that have date components that need attention.

Sorry, I never give advice on religion, politics or generators.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), March 13, 1999.

Their statement appers reasonable - actually a bit conservative since they are projecting completion in Aug, with 80% remediation and testing "done" now. There are no glaring problems or impossibly unlikely schedules - unlike Florida Power Light's schedule.

The fact that they slipped indicats that it is a real schedule - make sense? If they were administratively hiding "lack of progress" - they would not admit to problems. Slipping from Aug to Sept - but not further - isn't too troubling at this time.

Be nice if, for once, we'd see a Y2K budget or schedule come in early and at less cost than expected.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 14, 1999.