Yesterday, someone posted in the Play by Play thread something about a Georgia representative who appeared on a radio talk show, saying that Koskinen was telling state officials to make contingency plans for a three week power outage. A couple of us raised eyebrows at that, so I inquired who it was.

I took the time to call GA Rep. Grindley yesterday. In our conversation, he established this and divulged a bit more. Mr. Grindley is chair of Georgia's Task Force 2000. In speaking with the CIO of Georgian state systems, the CIO mentioned that Koskinen had told them to ensure their contingency plans addressed 3 weeks without electric power. Mr. Grindley said that the CIO had told him the Feds are quite alarmed ("scared shitless" was his phrase) about the ease with which anyone can break into the power grid, as it was never meant to be overly secure. The grid, evidently, runs at 60 MHz, and if anyone broke in and told the system it was anything less than 60 MHz, maybe 59.8, it would all shut down.

I don't know much about the grid and MHz, but needless to say, it has raises the stakes for us northern folks.

I moved up here from Charlotte, NC. I just heard from a friend of ours that her husband received a memo from NationsBank basically advising employees to take the same measures - prepare for two to three weeks of outages. I haven't talked to her husband or seen the memo, so I can't say absolutely it exists yet, but nonetheless, kind of strange to hear this from two completely different sources within 24 hours.

Thoughts?

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), March 03, 1999

Answers

Robert,

I was intrigued by your comment that "this forum is monitored". Is that just an assumption, or have you seen anything to confirm it? Obviously, I'm monitoring it, but I promise that I'm not a double agent! I think this forum probably gets more Y2K traffice than anything other than the csy2k usenet newsgroup, but I've never seen or heard any direct evidence that it was being regularly "monitored" by any individual, group, agency, or other institution. I suspect that Phil Greenspun is doing all kinds of statistics on the number of new threads posted each day, the average number of responses to each new posting, etc., but that's presumably for his thesis or some such thing...

Let me know if you're aware of anything specific; I would certainly like to follow up!

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), March 03, 1999.

I think there may be more GIs out there that we imagine.

I sure hope so.

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), March 03, 1999.

The grid runs at 60Hz, not 60MHz.

-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), March 03, 1999.

"In speaking with the CIO of Georgian state systems, the CIO mentioned that Koskinen had told them..."

"I just heard from a friend of ours that her husband received a memo..."

Whoah, there! Second and third hand hearsay. Ever done the exercise where you pass a story around a circle of people and see how it sounds when it goes full circle? 3 days can become 3 weeks very quickly.

-- Buddy (buddy@bellatlantic.net), March 03, 1999.

NationsBank is one of the largest financial institutions in the world. Certainly a few of its employees are reading this. Can you admit or deny? Presumably this is not a secret which would subject anyone to retaliation.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 03, 1999.

In light of the contradictory information we are getting from all "legitimate sources," I think it is totally appropriate to share hearsay information, as it may be the closest we will get to the truth.

-- Other Lisa (LisaWard2@aol.com), March 03, 1999.

That would make the entire Senate report hearsay as well. Guess we better disregard that as well. Who are those Senators, spreading gossip like that...

I think I can trust the word of the state representative from Georgia... Georgia trusted him, anyway, with being in charge of the task force.

As for my friend, yeah - that's hearsay - I'm waiting to get a copy in my hands, but I thought it interesting in light of the word from the GA rep.

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), March 03, 1999.

My daughter said she heard on the radio that people should prepare for 14 days. Since she did not remeber the station or have an url I did not think it was credible. It does go with what you are saying.

She also said Paul Harvey was talking Y2k.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), March 03, 1999.

Canadian y2k has an html version of the section of the US Senate report that deals with utilities and oil and gas. It seems to imply that the Senate is concerned about outages.

-- Rachel Gibson (rgibson@hotmail.com), March 03, 1999.

Definitely NOT "hear say" - verbatim quote, heard it directly (live) from the source, with Brett following up separately. Spoke to him on air for several minutes, and can confirm his knowledge and reliability.

Or would you rather hear it from Mr. K.? Is he more reliable for some reason?

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 03, 1999.

Paul Harvey's summary was very poor - I'm going to have to educate that guy some more.....8<).

Ref above: my conversation on air was with Rep. Grindley, not Brett. Also, spent several hours with him earlier at his GA state legistlature's briefing. I disagree with some of his conclusions, but we are still allowed our own opinions in this republic. He is also sponsring some medical and other Y2K-related bills this session.

In the absense of any other information - I'll trust this as a source.

Though be warned - this forum is monitored. (Most likely.) If the "powers that be" don't like what is said, the "powers that be' have ways of changing what was said "on the record."

But they cannot change what I heard.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 03, 1999.

Pure speculation, Sir Edward. Pure speculation.

If I were "they" - and if I felt so strongly about preventing bank-withdrawal panic as they demonstrate - I would monitor the most effective place(s) that un-filtered information would spring from.

Thus - based on the fact that I've seen direct evidence that the White House specifically monitors (and frames its press releases and daily briefings to address and neuter) such opposite views as Limbaugh and WorldNetDaily.com - I would, if I were to be effective, monitor and respond preventitvely to such forums as this and PNG's views on Aisa. But perhaps I am deluding myself (certainly possible, since sometimes I can't read my own typing) about how effective the mythical "they" are, but ....

Also, seeing such repeated and systematic "feedback" as from the banking industry psychiatrist in the forum today - deliberately repeating exactly what Mr K. is spreading elsewhere - to the letter, to accomplish the same means - shows me that there is a "network of behind the scenes coordinated effort" that is actively and deliberately pushing the federal views and its monopoly of Y2K information - or spin - or lies if you wish.

Others might even say the conspiracy word - but I can't reliably spell that, so I'll let others address that.

Serioudly, though, if I wanted to control information to the public about Y2K, I'd shutdown the internet. Discredit it. Demean it. Ridicule it, and make those who read it (and most especially those who try to get others to start their education by introducing people to y2K through the internet) have to fight their through garbage and trash and obsentities and filth to find information in it. If a "newbie" is disgusted at what he or she initially finds, they won't return. And will spread word about what they find to many others.

But enough about the trolls regularly seen here since November. Who seem to know each other. And who regularly repeat back to each other in mutual admiration responses simultaneously......

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 03, 1999.

Ed - this is from 3-4 threads up from the CIA Director's testimony (assuming of course that post is legit...."

"In closing, let me note that today we are closely monitoring a broad range of countries and sectors worldwide in terms of their susceptibility to disruption by Y2K failures. We are gathering information from all branches of the US Government, industry sources, a vast array of open sources (including hundreds of Web sites), and our own intelligence collection efforts so that we can accurately predict failures abroad and assess the implications. We are working very closely with the rest of the government, through the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion, and will continue to share relevant information on the Y2K situation abroad. As our collection continues, and awareness of and reporting on Y2K problems abroad increases, our estimates of the type and extent of failures we are likely to see around the world will become more precise."

Oops - I guess they are "gathering information" off the web as opposed to monitoring. Guess they're as clueless as we are ;-)

Gid-

-- gideon (gideon@zianet.com), March 03, 1999.

Yeah, and i had to turnm amn FBI Intel analyst on to the "Occupation" thread so he could see why his people from town were so unloved. Of course, they come home telling stories of "two weeks in a log cabin in the tulies" but these are city guys, guys who are working on the Jamaica task force who can fade so well into the street even I can't spot them, and I have had some practice hunting that type of hunter, plus the grad course from the spouse. But I digress.

My buddy took the url and thread name and I guess he went and looked but I haven't had a chanbce to check back with him. When i do, we'll see what he has to say.

nrn

of course, the name ain't here, c'mon dudes

-- Not right now (not@this.one), March 03, 1999.

Gideon, If you're talking about the thread posted by "BusyAtTheTop" it has all the earmarks of being illegitimate. I have challenged Busy to come up with some indicator of reliability and he has never responded. Some of the "remarks" he/she posted today were lifted word for word from Lawrence Gershwin's January 20 testimony.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 03, 1999.

Ed,

No way to know if we're being "monitored", but we know that some are at least taking a peak now and then. Remember this thread from a few weeks ago?

http://greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000Tvn

Someone noticed that the banking industry had a link to THIS forum on their official Y2K site.

Dig around in there for a while and you'll see they keep banks informed as to what all of us crazy Y2Kers are up to and how to combat our "misinformation" with marketing campaigns direct from the Federal Reserve designed to keep everyone calm and to keep our money in the bank.

ALSO, I know of someone on this forum (who shall necessarily remain nameless) who was summoned to Washington D.C. by government officials and "called on the carpet" for sympathetically participating in this forum and for "betraying" them. This individual IS in a position to have inside information in a particularly Y2K sensitive area of the government and now must post under a pseudonym to preserve her/his career. So at least at one point, I know the government was monitoring your forum.

I wouldn't doubt it if our taxes dollars are paying for someone(s) to sit back and read this forum everyday, filling out reports on every and anything.

David

-- David (David@BankPacman.com), March 03, 1999.

We can be sure we are "monitored" here. I'm glad we are. Most of us are just average people looking for information on this problem. Sure, we have the 10s, as well as the 1s, but overall this forum IS the J. Q. Public's view of the situation. Funny that we are considered the internet wackos though. I started a thread yesterday about the "contact us" link on the Senate report, and have a few good answers. I'm going to present it again in a day or so, and I'm thinking about coming out of the closet, and posting my REAL name, address, and e-mail address. Since "they" already know what we think, we should make it official, and send our "leaders" our view, via s-mail!, IMHO <:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), March 03, 1999.

Sysman -

the question is: do they actually have a human looking at the site, or is it just more text processing software?

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), March 04, 1999.

If I were in the US House of Representatives I'd monitor this site in hopes of learning what the grown-ups (US Senators) discussed in their closed door sessions.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), March 04, 1999.

If I were a member of either House of Congress I'd read this forum to find out what people who aren't paid lobbyists are thinking.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), March 04, 1999.

If I were a member of the House or Congress... I'd RESIGN ! :o)

-- Mike (mickle2@aol.com), March 04, 1999.

Back to the original post: the premise is plain WRONG (even after removing the M from the Hz it's still wrong).

For those who wish to inform themselves, go to Dick Mills' or Rick Cowles' sites, and find out how the grid really works in as much detail as you want. There's plenty to concern you, but one of the complete myths is that the grid needs some sort of advanced timekeeping to synchronize it.

Truth is that it's self-synchronizing. When you turn something on, the instantaneous power is delivered by slowing everything else on the grid down by an infinitessimal amount, and reducing the voltage it receives (and thus the power it draws) also by an infinitessimal amount. This is accomplished through the laws of nature, not by any form of regulation. Turn enough things on, and the voltage and frequency drop enough that power stations notice and increase the feed of steam to the turbines, thus driving things back towards the 60Hz target. On a slower response time still, more fuel gets fed to the furnaces when they notice that the steam pressure is falling. If this doesn't happen (ie if the grid is maxed out), other safety systems will cut power to the areas where the overload is greatest.

Timekeeping accuracy is incidental and optional. If the frequency average over the day has fallen below 60Hz, the engineers will speed it up to compensate overnight, so that old-style electric clocks, VCRs, microwaves etc. will be exactly right come morning. If they didn't, then these clocks would run slow. Nothing else would care much provided the voltage drop isn't excessive (>5%, which corresponds to a smaller percentage in frequency but more than 0.2Hz).

There *are* circumstances that can cause large chunks of the grid to cascade towards (normally) temporary failure, but a 0.2Hz frequency drop isn't it. I'm not sure exactly what grid characteristics are, but during the UK power-workers strike in the 70s our national grid deliberately reduced the voltage by about 5%, which corresponds to a reduced frequency and a reduced national power drain. (There was also further rationing by scheduled four-hour black-outs and a 3-day working week).

By the way, you can't reduce the voltage much more than that; electric motors overheat if you drop the voltage and frequency too much so at some point it becomes safer to "load shed", in other words impose a blackout on some customers. A "brown out" is when the voltage drops a lot (>10%) for a significant time, and is well known for damaging motors and power supplies. Much USA equipment used to comtain fans designed for 60Hz even though exported to Europe where we use 50Hz. They worked (typically for about two years rather than twenty) but ran VERY hot!

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), March 04, 1999.

I'm the one who posted the electric information about 60 Hz. I know nothing of the electric stuff, but what I posted is exactly what I heard from the representative, so this is the misinformation running through our government. If it's true that it's wrong, then that's kind of frightening, don't you think? Maybe they should talk to Dick Mills...

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), March 04, 1999.

Thank you. My focus (to the initial posting) was on the federal response to the potential troubles - to their apparently private warnings to citites and states to prepare contingency plans for 3 weeks of shortages and outages, not the mechanics (and electronics) of the control method of the grid itself.

It is possible to superimpose FM control signals "on top of" the steady 60 HZ/115-120V house power frequency itself that you discussed. For example, load cutting signals to our air conditioner are sent over the power lines directly to a control ckt on the air conditioner compressor motor itself to turn off and back on when loads get too high in the summertime. I am assuming it these (or similar) superimposed control signals for load cutting that he was referring to.

Technically, could one screw up the grid by sabotaging these control signals, assuming they are present and used that way? Don't know, I haven't tried to do that. Don't plan on trying it either.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 04, 1999.

Yes Arlin, they have text processing software monitoring the whole net. I figure that because of the number of times people here inadvertantly use key words/trigger words, there must now be an actual person or two looking in on the site. And besides, the site is an in-depth discussion of the hugest national security issue since Idunnowhen, they'd be derilict in their duties to not use such a good open-source. Thankfully the motives of their masters are as pure as the driven snow, so we have nothing to worry about.

-- humptydumpty (no.6@thevillage.com), March 04, 1999.

Ed-- I'm sure they (CIA and Fed Reserve) DO monitor this forum, because it has such a high signal/noise, and because there are so many people doing THEIR homework for them, by culling the net and posting the catch here. Doesn't strike me as particularly nefarious, just common sense. If you want to see if someone is febrile, you take his temp. This forum's a darn good thermometer (credit to you).

-- Spidey (in@jam.com), March 04, 1999.

On the internet montoring topic,

For an interesting time check out the FAS Web-site. (Thanks to an e friend for the tip). -- Diane

http://www.fas.org/ search.html

... The FAS Federation of American Scientists is engaged in analysis and advocacy on science, technology and public policy for global security. A privately-funded non-profit policy organization whose Board of Sponsors includes over 55 American Nobel Laureates, FAS was founded as the Federation of Atomic Scientists in 1945 by members of the Manhattan Project who produced the first atomic bomb.

Down under some link of a link, theres a little document ...

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT: THE INTERNET

Prepared by
Mr. Charles Swett
Assistant for Strategic Assessment

Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low-Intensity Conflict (Policy Planning) 17 July 1995

Note: The views expressed in this document are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the policies or positions of the Department of Defense.

CONTENTS

Abstract
Background
Objectives
Scope
What is the Internet?
Bulletin Board Systems
Current Trends
The Internet and Domestic U.S. Politics
The Internet and International Political Activism
Some Predictions
Assessment
Recommendations
Appendices

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT: THE INTERNET

Abstract

The political process is moving onto the Internet. Both within the United States and internationally, individuals, interest groups, and even nations are using the Internet to find each other, discuss the issues, and further their political goals. The Internet has also played an important role in recent conflicts. As a result, overseas segments of the Internet can be a useful tool for DoD, both for gathering and for disseminating information. By monitoring public message traffic and alternative news source s from around the world, early warning of impending significant developments could be developed, in advance of more traditional means of indications and warning. Commentary placed on the Internet by observers on the scene of low-intensity conflicts overse as could be useful to U.S. policymaking. During larger scale conflicts, when other conventional channels are disrupted, the Internet can be the only available means of communication into and out of the affected areas. Internet messages originating within regions under authoritarian control could provide other useful intelligence. Public messages conveying information about the intent of overseas groups prone to disrupting U.S. military operations can provide important counterintelligence. The Internet could also be used offensively as an additional medium in psychological operations campaigns and to help achieve unconventional warfare objectives. Used creatively as an integral asset, the Internet can facilitate many DoD operations and activities.

For the rest of the story ...

http://www.fas.org/cp/ swett.html

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), March 06, 1999.

If this forum is moderated automatically by a text recognition process, not manually and then re-typed and summarized into a separate report -

You just have to come to the conclusion that my bad typing alone has advanced the cause of artificial intelligence and pattern recognition and cryptology-cryptozoology several hundred percent in only the space of few months. Wow - what a feeling - to have contributed to the advancement of science and technology.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), March 06, 1999.

This is slightly different version of "superimposing" control signals on a power distribution system: from one of Dan's coments concerning pwer plant Y2K testing:

" One of our tests was to simulate the loss of data as it appears on the energy management system screen for several substations. Do you know how this data is normally received? Here it is: Transducers translate the actual current and voltage magnitudes into analog quantities. Those quantities are then translated to the remote transmitting unit, which then sends the data over a fiber optic system (which has its own controls). The fiber system transmits the data to a computer program which displays the values on a screen. Now that is quite a system, and these are the types of SYSTEMS we have already Y2K tested. "

Note that he references a separate fiber optic line, I'm more familiar with imposed "AM Radio" style high frequency signals being imposed on top off the steady-state 60 cycle ac cycle on the same copper wires as the power. His system (most likely) is more up-to-date. A separate demodulator that works kind of like a reverse Fournier equation is needed to "read" the signal and filter out the baseline 60 Hz signal from the "intelligence" they want.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (Cook.R@csaatl.com), April 13, 1999.

Idont know

-- dimitry sumon (dimitrybd@yahoo.com), July 15, 2002.