I'm curious as to people's thoughts on what's going to happen to the U.S.'s grid. Especially WHY (not just "it's going down"). Damn - I just started looking into y2k - I could kick myself in my a**. Flipping between paranoia and denial. VERY frustrated with lack of ANY concrete information.....

-- gideon (gideon@deletethiszianet.com), February 24, 1999

Answers

Welcome to the club gideon. I can't help with any concrete information, but shall look forward to any responses you get. I am trying to ascertain what the hell is going on too. Started preparing a few weeks ago. Just trying to figure out how bad this thing is going to be and for how long.

-- Buggin (out@Y2K.com), February 24, 1999.

gideon, you had better get used to being "VERY frustrated with lack of ANY concrete information". Unfortunately, thats the name of the game with Y2K.

On a recent thread, somebody gave a link to an Idaho electric utility that had a pretty informative Q&A page -- here is a link to it:

Idaho Power Company Y2K F.A.Q.

Nobody knows what is going to happen with Y2K, because nothing like Y2K has ever happened before. Hurricanes, tornadoes, snow storms, and Other Usual Disasters are relatively localized, so aid can always be brought in from the outside. With Y2K, there may not be an "outside", everyone will be struck at the same time everywhere.

Back to the power grid: At this very late date, no power utility company can say that it is Y2K compliant. Does this mean that, for sure, they will not be Y2K compliant by 1/1/2000? No. Does it mean that, even if (read: when) they are not, the grid will come down? No. Does it mean that there is a significant chance that it could? Absolutely, positively, yes.

The most quotable quote with Y2K is "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst". Last Saturday, I placed an order for a 15KW diesel generator, with a 12 week wait. By Summer, generators may not be available at all due to everyone waking up to what Y2K could bring.

Last quotable quote for you: Act Now.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 24, 1999.

Right now, the prospects for either widespread or long term blackouts seem to be pretty low. Even Rick Cowles no longer anticipates this, and he's the most pessimistic knowledgeable authority on power. Others with equal knowledge of y2k effects on power expect less, some of them much less, disruptions.

Of course, the information we have is equivocal, and most utilities are still incomplete. And of course to some of us, even announced total, tested and verified compliance by ALL utilities isn't sufficient. The "everyone who doesn't predict disaster has been bought off" mentality is unshakeable among the diehards.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), February 24, 1999.

gideon,

You'll find plenty of concrete here. Unfortunately is is still in it wet state - not solidified yet. It won't be set up until later this year or early next.

I'm not just making cute with the phrases. There are NO hard answers. i.e. Nobody KNOWS.

To continue the metaphor, what you need to look for is the forms into which the concrete will be poured. That is, the boundaries of the data, the general shape of things to come. There are plenty of current trends illuminated here. Many future trends speculated on.

There were some pretty big forms set in place today by the media. (Some of us would say the forms are already in place, the media is just now seeing or admiting they are there.)

Again, sorry, I don't think you will find *anything* concrete (absolutely solid) here or anywhere else. What you (and all of us) have to do is take what you can get make YOUR best guesses and do what YOU think is apporopriate.

You are responsible for You.

-- Greybear, who regrets some of you had to hear the sermon again

- Got Beans?

-- Greybear (greybear@home.com), February 24, 1999.

gideon -

There's a website dedicated to Electric Utilities at:

http://www.euy2k.com

It includes a discussion forum dedicated to Electric Utility issues:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q- and-a.tcl?topic=Electric%20Utilities%20and%20Y2K

From yesterday's Senate Report:

UTILITIES. Only about 50 percent of electric utilities had repaired Y2K systems as of December. ``Of greatest concern are about 1,000 small, rural electric utilities.'' Local and regional blackouts are ``likely,'' but a ``prolonged, nationwide blackout'' is not.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 24, 1999.

Two points:

Flint: Rick Cowles is probably not the "most pessimistic" expert around; he's simply willing to go on the record. His views are not at all dissimilar to others in and around the industry.

p: the statement from the Senate report is not true. It is *not* that "50 percent of electric utilities have repaired Y2K systems;" the proper statement is that "50 percent of *systems* have been repaired." And that's a whopper of a difference. One company may have 100 percent repaired; another may have 0 percent, but "on average," they have "50 percent." This is the same numbers game the feds are playing. Social Security is ahead, HCFA is behind- but "on average," things don't look so bad. Etc etc.

-- Drew Parkhill/CBN News (y2k@cbn.org), February 24, 1999.

gideon,

Another good overview of the electric utility situation is this lengthy interview with Rick Cowles at CBN's Y2K pages...

http://www.cbn.org/y2k/cowles.htm

And as pshannon mentioned, where you live could make a big difference in whether or not you have electricity and how long it might be out. Assuming you've done some personal prep to deal with utility interruptions, what your next biggest concern might be is how much transportation and distribution systems will be impacted Y2K.

Here are some recent articles and items on Y2K you might find useful:

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000UdL

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), February 24, 1999.

A good site for info on power and nuclear: www.itpolicy.gsa.gov Go to Year 2000 directories, then to International y2k conference. LOTS of information by some good experts. I particularly like Roleigh Martin.Also, you can submit a question and get a honest answer from some informed people.

-- bogie (stonie1012@aol.com), February 25, 1999.

Thank you all for your answers! Lots of great reading to do...!

-- gideon (gideon@deletethiszianet.com), February 25, 1999.

A friend of mine who in the past has worked in the electrical power industry pointed something out to me. The electrical industry has been taken over by the "bean-counters" ( MBA accountant types ) who know more about balance sheets than engineering. It is his experiance that to improve their bottem lines, inventories such as coal and spare parts have been reduced with a greater reliance on "just in time" deliveries. Of course greater plant automation has reduced employment levels (less human backup available). Another trend is fewer employees, that is to say instead of full time employees contract laborers are used to avoid medical and pension liabilities.

When I approached him in 1997 about Y2K he said that just due to a greater fragility of the system that he was thinking about getting a generator, but with Y2K that clinches it.

-- Ken Seger (kenseger@earthlink.net), February 25, 1999.

Ken, it's been said that everything about Y2K is location, location, location. What state did your friend work in? Is he getting a generator because if his experience with THAT utility, or a utility where he now lives? Just curious.

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), February 25, 1999.

Because of the uncertainty, there is only one question: can YOU live without electricity for an indefinite period of time if you have to?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 25, 1999.

On the one hand, I hear all this news (spin?) that "the juice will flow uninterrupted in Jan. '00." They say that they have few or no systems that care about what date it is.

On the other hand, outages have been known to cascade through millions of homes simultaneously, tripped off by a seemingly small problem that "snowballs" out of control. Also, if American power plants and transmission don't care about what date it is, why is it that Russia, China, and Europe are predicted to suffer massive y2k-related electrical outages? What makes our engineering so eminently superior?

If there are indeed going to be a number of simultaneous, local outages, what makes you think that they won't cause any cascading effects through the whole grid?

What is the motivation for "Don't Worry, Be Happy?" spinmeisters? What is the motivation for "Doom and Gloom" spinmeisters.

-- Jon (joncarson@yahoo.com), February 25, 1999.

Actually, Jon, that brings up a great question. Given that the recently released Senate report claimed that local and regional blackouts are "likely" (though a "prolonged" nationwide blackout was claimed not to be), it seems to me that the power grid would tend to be endangered, based on cascading failures of the past. And additionally, the pollyannas that are always assuring us that there is no embedded chips problem, etc., might want to explain why, then, we will apparently be experiencing at least some power disruptions.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), February 26, 1999.

"What is the motivation for "Don't Worry, Be Happy?" spinmeisters? What is the motivation for "Doom and Gloom" spinmeisters."

You answer is here

-- fly .:. (.@...), February 26, 1999.