I sent a e-mail to TU Electric on Friday after reading their website. After reading up on what they were doing to solve their Y2K problem. They claim to have started in mid 1996 on the problem and have tested over 50% of their systems and found "very few problems" none of which were very serious. They also say that they cannot at this time they are certain that power will stay on with very few interruptions. Well, that is all well and good (I guess) but I was not convinced. So I wrote them back stating all of my uncertainity of their progress. I simply asked the question : If they started in 1996 and now have 50% of their testing complete, How did they expect to have the other 50% complete in the months remaining in this year. The response was just a happy face with no answer. All they said was that I should research the Y2k problem to see if I could possibly be affected. I was then instructed to read their web page to see what they have done to prepare their company....Well I thought that was what I had just done??????????????? My question was all but answered, and I am more confused than ever now. Do any of you have any answers concerning TU's progress and is it possible to complete the remaining 50% of testing in the next few months?

Why can't I get any straight answers????????????????

-- shellie (shellie01@hotmail.com), February 22, 1999

Answers

Shellie:

I am not sure where TU Electric is, but I can give you some insight into the testing process. Bear in mind that I am a programmer/analyst with 31 year's experience, not an electrical engineer. I do happen to know something about imedded systems afetr reading up for a year.

Any programmer will tell you that testing (in this case regression testing) on software systems consumes 70% to 90% of a project's budget and time. I'll let you do the math regarding your specific case. On the Y2K remediation project that I just finished, we began in 1996 on evaluation and inventory, started program remediation in 1998, and regression testing 4 months ago. We are close, but not complete yet.

With imbedded systems, the testing is much more difficult, and the manufacturer of the imbedded chip (assuming they are still in business) must be heavily involved with it. I suspect that most utilities are doing what they call "smoke testing", judging from all the explosions I have read about lately. This is an old Navy term that is used to describe the test, whereby the imbedded system is turned off, the date is bumped up to past 2000, and the system is started back up. It will either fail, or not. Someone posted an article today in this group describing a new probe that has been designed to "sniff" out imbedded chips with date functions. The author nailed it squarely when he said, "oh, great, now all we need is a couple hundred thousand of these gizmos and an equal number of technical people to go out and sniff those 70 billion chips", or something to that effect.

I think you are correrct in assuming that your utility is blowing smoke at a particular part of your anatomy.

Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

Mike Cumbie.

-- Michael H. Cumbie (Mikecumbie@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

Mike, Thank you for your response. I'll keep looking for all those sales on candles. Oh yeah, TU is in Texas. I wish I knew more about how the electric company works but alas, no matter how much I read on the subject my mind tends to drift away to never never land and my eyes get the glassy, no one is home kinda look to them. Anyone else having this trouble? I want to know I...I...I swear I do, it just won't sink in. AAAAAAAARRRRRRHHHH!!!!!!!!!

-- shellie (shellie01@hotmail.com), February 22, 1999.

Shellie,

Welcome to the club - all of us are in the dark (no pun intended).

The heck of it is, it doesn't matter whether TU electric is compliant or not. They are still part of the national grid, and as such, are still vulnerable to catastrophic failure if (when) some other part of the grid fails.

There is no getting out of this one, for anybody.

Mike Cumbie

-- Michael H. Cumbie (Mikecumbie@aol.com), February 22, 1999.

It must be a standard answer, it is the same one I received from my utility company.

-- Linda A. (adahi@muhlon.com), February 22, 1999.

Mostly for Mike... TU Electric, serves a large part of West, East Central, and North Texas... However, its connection to the 'national' grid is VERY limited.... only two connections outside Texas,,, both DC, one in El Paso, and one at the Red River into Oklahoma,, and the last one is actually thru another utility... TU electric is, and always has been 'off the national grid' in order to avoid engaging in Interstate Commerce. In fact, a few years ago, an independent utility bought power from TU and sold it outside Texas.. TU learned of a few days later, cut the plug and sued the utility for violating their agreement.

As to whether TU is compliant or not is still up in the air, BUT, TU will not be dragged down by a failure of the national grid... TU fuel supplies are fairly stable... nuke is isolated, they own the natural gas transmission line, they own the coal mines and the railroads that haul to the plants.. Fuel oil is not a big part of their fuel. The only real question about TU fuel would be the coal they buy from Wyoming, etc... Rail could be problem there, but they can still run the plants with Texas Lignite Coal..

-- Y2Krazy (Y2Krazy@WhyTwoKay.com), February 22, 1999.

Hi Shellie. Have you been to euy2k yet? This site is run by a GI and deals with "electric utilities and the year 2000". Lots of good information here. <:)= euy2k.com - The Newsroom


-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), February 23, 1999.

Y2Krazy: what do you mean by 'nuke is isolated' ?

-- Shelia (shelia@active-stream.com), February 23, 1999.

Y2Krazy,

I'm in Texas and am a TU Electric customer, so I was intrigued by the information you have on TU's operations. Tell me, where did you get your information?

-- Codejockey (codejockey@geek.com), February 23, 1999.

Good news...just got off phone from local electric coop in N.TX where we get our power. They are tied into TU Electric and the man I spoke with said that they were Y2K compliant. I read him part of the above post about TU being off the national grid except for 2 places & he totally verified that that was true. He said the coop had met with TUC 2 weeks ago and everything should be fine. He said he wasn't buying a generator himself and didn't advise anyone getting one. Our electric coop gets power from another coop, Rayburn Coop, which is tied into TU Electric.

BTW, Happy Alamo Day!

-- Texan (Alamo@ranch.com), February 23, 1999.

Texan - you may want ot think about that string of reliablity - TU to EMC (1) to Rayburn EMC to your EMC - if that chain fails at any point, you have no backup. With only limited connections between Texas (overall) and the national grid, there is less way of avoiding certain problems. On the other hand, failure/fluctuations of the national grid could be more readily isolated.

Assume each is 90% likely to continue operation: the probability you will have is .9*.9*.9*.9 = .656 or 65%.

If each were 95% likely to continue operation: you'd still have only a 81.5 chance of good power.

Even if each resolved all its problems, so they were 99% sure that power could be maintained - and remember, you have only phone calls assurances (no test results, nothing writeen, nothing to let you second check their "feel good" statements - you are, with four distributors in line to get power to your house - 96% safe. Not an A+.

Be hopeful - it sounds like they are making progress, but check. Try to get their Number tested/number in system results.

-- Robert A. Cook, P.E. (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.R@csaatl.com), February 23, 1999.

Robert,

Excellent point...there is no assurance of 100% reliability of service. We'd probably get a generator for other uses around ranch anyway...plus we don't have 100% reliability today...the power has been intermittent lately with the building of a local substation so a generator is not a bad idea in any event. It was out this morning as I was leaving...hope it's come back up before food in freezer melts.

In fact, this morning the operator at the local electric coop said the power had been out there this morning...don't know why.

-- Texan (AlamoDay@ranch.com), February 23, 1999.

You might want to look at this texas site http://www.puc.state.tx.us

-- H. S. Rash (sler@hotmail.com), March 22, 1999.