There's a very good article in this issue (Jan/Feb) of Power Magazine. This magazine is primarily aimed at those who work in the power industry. The article is "Midnight in the Garden of the Year 2000". I would post it here, but I am not sure that I should because in front of the magazine it says not to reprint or photocopy without permission.

If you can get this magazine, check out this article. It's pretty well written and doesn't seem to be one-sided. Paints a sort of pretty picture that things might be okay on the one hand, and on the other hand, as one interviewee says, "Quite honestly, it scares me to death.....I wish we were a year ahead of where we are right now."

According to one person interviewed, nuclear plants will be on line...."....certainly nothing has been discovered to date that affects the safety of anyone...."

Anyway, just posting this for info. Get the magazine if you can and read for yourself.

Bobbi http://www.buzzbyte.com/

-- Bobbi (bobbia@slic.com), January 27, 1999

Answers

From Rick Cowles site (don't bother going directly to NERC- their homepage reads like a who's who of happy faces):

My analysis discusses the following key areas:

Universal Participation - Has the Goal Been Met?

With a November 1998 participation rate of around 75% (versus the NERC reported participation of 98%), it is clear that consistent industry support of the NERC effort must be accelerated dramatically. A specific concern cited is the participation of Independent Power Producers (non-utility generators), which account for over 12% of the net generation capacity in the U.S.

Are Timelines Slipping?

NERC relies heavily on "industry averages" in determining compliance with pre-established NERC timelines for completion of Y2k programmatic phases. "Averages" rarely tell the complete story. Key statistics of the 191 respondents to the November 1998 survey include:

- 53 indicate a Y2k readiness date of September 1999 or later. (28%)

- 135 will not make the established date for completion of remediation/testing (71%)

Contents and Positioning of the NERC Report

This is a particularly interesting section, as it was my prognostication of how NERC would position the January 11 report. According to NERC teleconference minutes, much groundwork was laid with congressional representatives, government agencies, and financial institutions prior release of the report. This section also covers industry contingency planning.

- Industry wide contingency planning is still in the infancy stage

- NERC has expressed great concern regarding use of current emergency planning guidelines and templates that are not Y2k specific.

- 58% of survey respondents have just started looking at contingency planning for Y2k

While acknowledging that progress has been made in addressing Y2k issues within the electric industry, we must also realize that the pace of efforts continues to lag the calendar. NERC, the Edison Electric Institute, other industry trade/lobby associations, and the individual power companies themselves have an obligation to frank and honest reporting that over rides any business or political concerns. I hope that my analysis will serve as a catalyst for openness in future industry reports.

-- a (a@a.a), January 27, 1999.