In the January 20. 1999 testimony of Lawrence Gershwin, a member of the National Intelligence Council, to the US House of Representatives, he says,(snip) " Significant oil exporters to the US ...include a number of countries...that are lagging in their y2k remediation....Embedded microprocessors are found throughout the oil industry in drilling, pumping, transportation, processing and refining operations....many foreign officials and companies are looking to the West, particularly the US, for help, and to Western suppliers for technical solutions. ..." He goes on to say that some companies are blaming their US and Western suppliers, and threatening to sue..

My question: A) If the US and the West has supplied these countries with their oil technology (so they could sell the oil, etc. back to us!) would we have sold them different technology than we are using ourselves in our own oil and gas processing plants?

B) If the technology is the same, why are we not hearing that US plants are having the same kind of problems?

Shouldn't these big processing companies be obliged (by the House Committee or Somebody) to show invoices etc., proving that they had fixed the problems that the foreign companies are predicting will affect them?

There have been several other articles and references to the problems expected in the off shore oil industry, and I've also seen several testimonials from individuals who claim to be close to the US oil industry who say there will be problems....but nothing official...its all happy face stuff.

If the National Intelligence Council can claim knowledge of problems in oil production in these foreign countries, doesn't it seem likely that the same problems exist in our own oil producing companies? And does this not seem a worthy topic of investigation for some senator or some sharp investigative reporter?

We can all get by, more or less, with generators, and other contingency back ups....but removing oil and everything we derive from it from our society and economy ...that puts a whole new look on things. Can Paul M. be right!??

I'd like to read what you folks think.

Thanks

Mary Phillips

-- Mary Phillips (blufrogg@garlic.com), January 26, 1999

Answers

The evidence more than amply demonstrates that I am right.

But, being 'right' is NOT the issue. The issue is one of being prepared and who is 'wrong' if they are not. If I am wrong, the sun still comes up each day and everything si fine. I am wrong and NOTJHING happens to me. Now, on the other hand, if the pollyanna does not prepare properly and HE is wrong, he is dead.

So go right ahead and stay in cities. Remain in populated areas surrounded by tens of thousands of unprepared people and then wait to see if you are wrong.

No skin off my nose. Either way, I come out smelling like a rose.

-- Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), January 26, 1999.

Paul, you'd make the perfect politician.

All for one (you) and none for us.

You may be right about a great many things, and in a year there may be alot of people who has wished they had listened to you, but when the chips fall where they may, you'll STILL be a pompous, self serving jackass.

-- (anon@abc.com), January 26, 1999.

Not so fast. Let's ask Paul Davis.

-- King of Free Estimates (Isontheedgeofhischair@this.time), January 26, 1999.

Lets play devils advocate for a moment. If we don't have problems (which I'm sure we do), the domestic wells would flow and the foreign wells would not. What would this do to Opec's 40% share and the MidEast in general.

MoVe Immediate

-- MVI (vtoc@aol.com), January 26, 1999.

But Paul....evidence is exactly what is being asked about. DO we have verifiable EVIDENCE that our/their oil refineries will fail?

It is one thing to advise folks to prepare ...by stocking extra food, buying generators, extra gasoline, etc, etc. etc. ( And I do want to thank you, personally, for the "shock" value of your writings, as it caused us to go from blissful ignorance to "GI's" in about two weeks, last June.. Quite a ride!)

But think about the implications of an OIL-Less United States. Not only gasoline, but heating oil, plastics, fertilizers, certain medicines....the case on my computer and the vasaline I put on the baby's bottom this AM....

An Oil-Less United States would put us back to technology of about 100 years ago - pre WW One - maybe even further...as they did have crude oil then..

That's quite a leap! and qualitatively different from preparing for a few power outages, and various other shortages.

Don't you think that before folks uproot their entire lives, and embark upon a lifestyle with a nearly vertical learning curve that we should have some positive proof that it is necessary to do so?

How are you going to get them back to the city, once they've been down on the farm? You can't go home again.

Even those of us that have achieved some level of self sufficiency over the years, just for the doing of it...we are still reliant on the oil industry. Before I prepare to wean us from our propane tank, I gotta know if this be the truth!

Mary Phililps

-- Mary Phillips (blufrogg@garlic.com), January 26, 1999.

Maybe it's a good time to move away from oil based products and start putting more effort into developing other energy forms, like wind, sun, ocean tides, etc...I mean, really, if we never used another drop of petroleum based products, I ( and mother nature) would be more than pleased...

laura (Ps, we have to start somewhere, right?)

-- laura (bankl@dfo-mpo.gc.ca), January 26, 1999.

Mary,

Check out Chevron's last SEC filing and other media offerings. They've already stated, on the record, that they expect problems and that those problems have the possibility to impact every aspect of their business including production and the delivery of their products to the consumer.

Mike ================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), January 26, 1999.

Mary:

- At a y2k briefing last year, Sen. Thurmond asked the DoD's John Hammre "how would the military deal with a reduction in US oil capacity to 30% of normal?" (30% was the industry estimate at that time for the percentage of completed remediation by 01/01/00) To my knowledge this is still an unanswered question.

- China has reported that it fully expects many of its refineries to "meltdown" after the rollover.

- The SCADA system that controls the Mideast oil production is hosed and their is no reasonable timetable for its repair.

- As previously cited, Chevron issued a "mea culpa" predicting substantial disruptions in its last SEC filings.

- The American Chemical Society just last week stated that embedded chips will be a bigger problem than they anticipated.

These are just off the top of my head. Keep in mind that I have not even begun to address the interdependencies, interconnections, political (read war) machinations, etc.

Now, any good pollyanna will argue that each of these concerns is "overblown". I beg to differ.

Milne's point, which is lost on some, is, THERE IS PLENTY OF EVIDENCE.

-- a (a@a.a), January 26, 1999.

Yeah Milne is abrasive. So what? Deal with it.

Assuming he is right, I gather he will be prepared. And will have well-deserved "bragging rights."

-- z (z@z.com), January 26, 1999.

No, sandpaper is abrasive, Milne is a self centered jackass.

And anyone who goes around bragging because he was right about the end of the world and how good it feels to have a full belly when his former neighbors are dying of starvation is a full flegded a$$hole.

-- (anon@abc.com), January 26, 1999.

Mary Phillips, We do know that "their" refineries will fail. Now you can argue about what is and is not a fact, but this is what I did. I read in a Jim Lord tip that of the 5 refineries in Venezuela, 3 will shut down because of non-compliance. The article cited remarks of a Dr. Fox with the US House subcommittee on Management Information and Technology (I'm sure I got those out of order) so I called Dr. Fox and asked him that question point blank. He confirmed that he had been in touch with the owner's of the refineries and they confirmed that the three affected would close. My question to this forum was "So what?" I don't think I categorized the thread, so it may be hard to find. The final answer from someone on the forum was that the US imports very little refined petroleum product. Personally, I'm not too uptight about what overseas-refined product we might lose. But you asked if it is a fact that *their* refineries will close. In my book, in this whacky pre-y2k world, I have enough evidence on that to act as if it's a fact. But that doesn't necessarily tell us about *our* refineries. See Shimrod's post from today about cover-ups. I wonder if the GAO industry readiness report which has been deep-sixed from the taxpayers addresses our refineries.

-- Puddintame (dit@dot.com), January 26, 1999.

Anon,

Why do you suppose Milne writes the stuff he writes and does the stuff he does?

-- art welling (artw@lancnews.infi.net), January 26, 1999.

This thread kills me. Two topics: will there be oil, and is Paul Milne a jackass...

The answer to the first is No, there won't be oil. For the reasons stated thus far and for the reason that the distribution system seems rather askew as well (maritime shipping, ports, railroads, trucking, etc.)

The answer to the second is, "Who cares?" As also mentioned, I for one appreciate Paul's postings, however acerbic they may be, because people like him understood from the beginning that to shake us from our peaches and cream and rose colored glasses, they had to talk this way. So from a fella who has listened and moved rural, thank you, Paul. One thing further I'll add: no, the move wasn't easy. Yes, I took a paycut, moved into a house 1000 sq ft smaller, yanked my children from their schools and friends - it was hard. But as a family we all sat around and talked about it and discussed it. Then my wife and I made the decision. As a programmer, I know what it is to sit in a room three days before a project milestone is due and STILL believe you can make it. Then on that fateful day, you and everyone else knows it's gonna take three more months.

So again, the answer, Mary, is No, they won't make it in time. Severe shortages. It sucks, but it's what it is, and no amount of elbow grease or super-management will change that.

-- Brett (savvydad@aol.com), January 26, 1999.

While I dread the possible horrible consequences of Y2K, so much exposure to Diane J. Squire ;) has left me with a tiny hope that Y2K may also give us a chance to do some things over and get them right this time. Our dependence on imported oil is an area with much room for improvement.

A few facts (from hemp.co.uk) to contemplate:

Hempseed oil is said to burn the brightest of all lamp oils, and has been used since the days of Abraham. Scythians used to purify and cleanse themselves with Hemp oil, which made their skin "shining and clean".

Cannabis oil was mentioned by name in the Bible. Apparently, etymologists at Hebrew University, Jerusalem confirmed that 'kineboisin' (also spelled 'kannabosm") referred to cannabis used in a holy ointment. See Exodus 30:23. N.B. King James mistranslated the word as 'calamus' in his version.

Hemp offers a valuable and sustainable fuel of the future, "growing oil wells". Hemp has an output equivalent to around 1000 gallons of methanol per acre year (10 tons Biomass/acre, each yielding 100 gal. methanol/ton). Methanol used today is mainly made from natural gas, a fossil fuel. Methanol is currently being studied as a primary fuel for automobiles, hopefully reducing CO2 levels.

Henry Ford dreamed that someday automobiles would be grown from the soil. The Ford motor company, after years of research produced an automobile with a plastic body. Its tough body used a mixture of 70% cellulose fibres from Hemp. The plastic withstood blows 10 times as great as steel could without denting! Its weight was also 2/3 that of a regular car, producing better economy. Henry Ford was forced to use petroleum due to Hemp prohibition. His plans to fuel his fleet of vehicles with plant-power also failed due to Alcohol prohibition at the time.

For more than a thousand years before the time of Christ until 1883 AD, Cannabis/Hemp was our planet's largest agricultural crop and most important industry for thousands upon thousands of products and enterprises, producing the overall majority of the earth's fibre, fabric, lighting oil, paper, incense and medicines, as well as being a primary source of protein for humans and animals alike.

The war between America and Great Britain in 1812 was mainly about access to Russian Hemp. Napoleon's principle reason for tragically invading Russia in 1812 was also due to Russian Hemp supplies!

end quote

PS, hemp oil can also be used as a diesel fuel. Oh yeah, one last thought, the US Constitution was drafted on hemp paper.

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), January 26, 1999.

Mary,

Let me suggest a few starting points:

1. Processes which are more computerized would seem to be more likely to encounter Y2K problems than processes that are less computerized.

2. After reviewing the post regarding chemical plants below (you might have your browser scan for chemical, and see the article from Chemical and Engineerig News discussing embedded systems in chemical plants, the post here looks like American Chemical Society says Chemical Industries Underestimated Embedded Chip Problem (a, a@a.a, 1999-01-24) ), consider that an oil refinery is a chemical plant near the front end of the petrochemical daisy chain.

3. Oil refineries have been around long before computers. Newer ones are more likely to be more computerized than older ones, except for those older ones which have been heavily modernized.

4. Middle Eastern oil refineries are, on average, newer than "ours". I do not have any recollections about the vintage of, for example, Venezuelan oil refineries, but I would not be surprosed if they also tend to be younger than US refineries.

5. We still do not know how many things will break or which ones will break.

6. US oil companies seem to be pursuing Y2K problems with more effort than Middle Eastern or South American outfits.

7. Place your bets.

None of the above should be taken to suggest an all or nothing dichotomy. I am simply suggesting that there are variations among the data that we do not know. :-)

Aside from the refinery questions, it seems that the US imports about half ot the crude oil it uses, and those big tanker ships use many computers too!

And then there are the pipelines that distribute much of the refined products (diesel, gasoline, etc) from the refineries to the rest of the country. One web site described a pair of pipelines from Texas to New York which included 73 pumping stations which used electric motors and the electricy is purchased from 26 (yes, 26) different electric utilities! http://www.enerlink.com/success/page_colonial.html

So, there seem to be ample opportunities for things to break, but I do not know of any way to be sure, in advance, which things will sieze that opportunity. :-)

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), January 26, 1999.

Uncle: Hemp makes great firewood and tobacco replacements, too ;)

-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), January 26, 1999.

Uncle :

You forgot the most important use of hemp products yet...

Damn now I forgot what I was going to say. Must be that short tem memory loss.

-- (African@hightimes.com), January 26, 1999.

ohboy! can't wait to see Milne pick on you Uncle };-)

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), January 26, 1999.

hemp smoking also slows down your reflexes and generally makes you less alert. never trusted a doper at my back, and never will. Sorry guys, but you can keep your rope.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), January 27, 1999.

Arlin H. Adams sez, "Sorry guys, but you can keep your rope."

Arlin, you must have cut class when sailing ships were the topic. Hemp fibers make very strong and durable rope, miles and miles and miles of it were used in the rigging sails. THC is not in the fibers, not in the seeds, it's in the leaves and flowers. If hemp was a commercial field crop here we wouldn't need to be clear-cuttting the forests.

Of course it's seriously illegal to plant hemp (cannabis spp.) in this country. Even though there are varieties with THC content so low as to be negligible. (We have high moral standards to maintain.)

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 27, 1999.

Right -- foreign oil refineries don't furnish any appreciable amount of product to the U.S.

But foreigh crude oil producers supply about half of our domestic usage.

In 1997, oil imports represented 48% of U.S. oil consumption. Around half of this oil came from OPEC nations, with Persian Gulf sources accounting for about 18% of U.S. oil imports during the year, down from 25% on average during 1990. Overall, the top suppliers of oil to the United States for 1997 were Venezuela (1.7 million bbl/d), Canada (1.5 million bbl/d), Saudi Arabia (1.4 million bbl/d), and Mexico (1.4 million bbl/d) (from http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/usa.html

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), January 27, 1999.

Last April, the trade journal "World Oil" ran an article by two oil company managers and a longtime computer consultant to the industry, in which it was claimed that there simply wouldn't be time to check 70% of the embedded systems in U.S. oil refineries (let alone in pumping stations and pipelines). I suspect that this article was the primary basis for Sen. Thurmond's question last Sept. to Deputy Defense Sec. John Hamre (the Pentagon's point man on Y2K) regarding how the military would deal with a loss of U.S. oil refining capacity up to 70%.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), January 27, 1999.

Here's the link to the April 1998 World Oil article...

http://www.worldoil.com/archive/archive_98-04/bug-shemwell.html

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), January 27, 1999.

I agree with the analysis comparing relative remediation efforts here vs. overseas, and of the reliability of supplied products (support services, outside utilities, worker base) here vs overseas.

Though all refineries and chem production plants appear at grea risk - the abilitity to recover here appears much better. BUT - these plants "here" rely to a great deal on raw crude supplies from "over there" for long term 4-6 weeks delivery of products. Transshipping, pipelines and oil terminals offshore are also at risk in this tanker pipeline - since US ports are shallow water and few can receive the huge tankers coming from overseas directly.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 27, 1999.

This is not about an oil refinery, but a chemicals plant. I talked for some time with an electrical engineer who specialized in controls systems. He had put in almost a year in Y2K compliance work at a major chemical plant. He said the project was being run by the company's attorneys. When I asked him if that meant I wouldn't want to live downwind from the plant next January, he said he had already moved very far away..............

I get a chance to talk to people who are in the remediation projects almost every week. I have yet to talk to one who felt any of their projects would be successful, be it software remediation or hardware (embedded chip) testing and replacement. I'm not a techie, I'm a fairly well read pessimist. I think the systems will go down. They may/will come back eventually, but I'd like to keep eating until then. If you feel the need to plan for months of disruption, then the real need is to plan for years of more or less self sufficiency. The longer a system is down, the longer a problem persists, the more likely it is that it will continue in its current path.

-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), January 27, 1999.

I am a trifle short of time this morning so I will just post a few links to refining and oil co information.

British Petroleum - pretty much industry boilerplate. BP has bought several US Oil companies - Gulf and Amoco among others. http://www.bpamoco.com/technology/Y2k.htm

Maybe they should hire Shell - they are jobbing out their Y2K teams so they must feel pretty confident about getting done. http://www.renew2000.com/

This is from last July - but a good view of what happens as a company addresses the issues and finds out just what they are facing. http://www.refining.ihost.com/site3/news/newsfr.html

Weirdly enough - Occidental has a short (4K) Y2K statement - but you have to be a user with a password to read it! Go figure.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 27, 1999.

Drat and Darn. The last link should read

http://www.refining.ihost.com/site3/data.nsf/News/Articles+Archive/113 6D00BBA3BEDC78625668A0051CD2A?OpenDocument

or use the other and open the articles - third one down.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), January 27, 1999.