http://www.y2ktoday.com/modules/home/default.asp?id=689

one quote among others: "In one case, the Netherlands has "threatened to cut off its power grid from the rest of Europe" to protect it from external problems, according to Gershwin."

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), January 22, 1999

Answers

I'll be surprised if that's possible! So much for European integration, if it is.

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), January 22, 1999.

Arlin, why don't you repost here from the "Koskinen thread"? I agree on significance. My thoughts:

... paranoia aside, intelligence guys don't flat-out lie to Congress often, though they "defer" on consequences, as Gershwin often did. So we can get authentic info from his testimony.

... Netherlands statement is huge. For an entire country to "threaten" its EU allies as EARLY as Jan. 99 (that's the key) indicates intense concern and implies a political judgment at highest level of Dutch govenment that EU will NOT be ready on utilities

... Gershwin implied (basically stated) that oil industry is at huge risk of failures. Remember 73-74? Oil disruptions, if big-time, could all by themselves send world into deep recession (that is, US, much of world already in recession). But that's not all, folks:

... Gershwin as much as said that China is going under for a period of time. How much of our apparel and other inexpensive goods are coming from China these days? Scorched Japan and Asia too.

... Russia a mess but we already knew that.

... In some ways, I thought most ominous statement was NOT that most countries are behind or WAY behind (we knew that, too) but that most countries have no contingency plans this late in the game.

Now, for extra credit, class:

If Gershwin is saying this publicly to Congress, what is he saying to Klinton? Military? FEMA? Let's take it conservative and continue to take his tesimony at its word AND NO MORE on the data, but what is he saying to these guys about the consequences and the contingency plans that US should be putting in place?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), January 22, 1999.

The transcript of Larry Gershwin's comments (and lots of other goodies) can be read at:

http://www.y2k.gov/text/secassess.html

-- Lewis (aslanshow@yahoo.com), January 22, 1999.

>Remember 73-74? - BigDog

And remember: in 1973 the US imported only about 25%-30% of its oil; now it imports about 57%, twice the proportion.

-- No Spam Please (anon@ymous.com), January 22, 1999.

If *we* are looking at severe fuel shortages, what in the world is Japan going to do?

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), January 22, 1999.

"What is Japan going to do?"

The words shake and bake come to mind.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), January 22, 1999.